Predictions of Nino3.4 SST in CFSv1 and CFSv2: A diagnostic comparison

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 41, Issue 5-6, 2013, Pages 1615-1633

  Barnston, Anthony G ^a   Tippett, Michael K ^a,b  

^a Earth Institute   (United States)

^b KING ABDULAZIZ UNIVERSITY   (Saudi Arabia)

Author keywords

Coupled ocean atmosphere models; ENSO prediction; Model hindcasts; Nino3.4 SST index; NOAA CFSv1 and CFSv2; Skill diagnosis; Statistical field significance; Target month slippage

Indexed keywords

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; AIR-SEA INTERACTION; AMPLITUDE; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; CORRELATION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; HINDCASTING; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; PREDICTION; PROBABILITY; RELIABILITY ANALYSIS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

EID: 84884700195     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1845-2     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Barnston AG, Chelliah M, Goldenberg SB (1997) Documentation of a highly ENSO-related SST region in the equatorial Pacific. Atmos Ocean 35: 367-383.
2. Barnston AG, Tippett MK, L'Heureux ML, Li S, DeWitt DG (2012) Skill of real-time seasonal ENSO model predictions during 2002-11: is our capability increasing? Bull Am Meteor Soc 93: 631-651.
3. Behringer DW, Xue Y (2004) Evaluation of the global ocean data assimilation system at NCEP: the Pacific Ocean. Eighth symposium on integrated observing and assimilation systems for atmosphere, oceans, and land surface, AMS 84th Annual Meeting, Washington State Convention and Trade Center, Seattle, Washington, 11-15.
4. Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Weaver S, Kumar A (2011) Evaluating the tropospheric variability in National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. J Geophys Res (Atmos) 116 Art. No. D17107 doi: 10. 1029/2011JD015707.
5. Chen WY (1982) Fluctuations in Northern Hemisphere 700 mb height field associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 110: 808-823.
6. Davis RE (1976) Predictability of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure anomalies over the North Pacific Ocean. J Phys Oceanogr 6: 249-266.
7. Deser C, Philips AS, Alexander MA (2010) Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited. Geophys Res Lett 37 doi: 10. 1029/2010GL043321.
8. Ebisuzaki W, Zhang L (2011) Assessing the performance of the CFSR by an ensemble of analyses. Clim Dyn 37: 2541-2550.
9. Hayes WL (1973) Statistics for the social sciences. Rinehart and Winston, Holt 954.
10. Hoerling MP, Kumar A (2002) Atmospheric response pattern associated with tropical forcing. J. Clim 15: 2184-2203.
11. Jin EK, Kinter JL (2009) Characteristics of tropical Pacific SST predictability in coupled GCM forecasts using the NCEP CFS. Clim Dyn 32: 675-691.
12. Jin EK et al (2008) Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Clim Dyn 31: 647-664.
13. Kanamitsu MW et al (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Meterol Soc 83: 1631-1643. doi: 10. 1175/BAMS-83-11-1631.
14. Kim HM, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2012) Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere winter. Clim Dyn 39: 2957-2973. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-012-1364-6.
15. Kumar A, Bhaskar J, L'heureux M (2010) Are tropical SST trends changing the global teleconnection during La Nina? Geophys Res Lett 37: L12702. doi: 10. 1029/2010GL043394.
16. Kumar A, Chen M, Zhang L, Wang W, Xue Y, Wen C, Marx L, Huang B (2012) An analysis of the non-stationarity in the bias of sea surface temperature forecasts for the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS) version 2. Mon Weather Rev 140: 3003-3016.
17. Levitus S, Antonov JI, Boyer TP, Locarnini RA, Garcia HE, Mishonov AV (2009) Global ocean heat content 1955-2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems. Geophys Res Lett 36: L07608. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL037155.
18. Livezey RE, Chen W-Y (1983) Field significance and its determination by Monte-Carlo techniques. Mon Weather Rev 111: 46-59.
19. Lyon B, DeWitt DG (2012) A recent and abrupt decline in the East African long rains. Geophys Res Lett 39: L02702. doi: 10. 1029/2011GL050337.
20. Lyon B, Barnston AG, DeWitt DG (2013) Tropical Pacific forcing of a 1998-99 climate shift: observational analysis and climate model results for the boreal spring season. Clim Dyn 26 (in press).
21. Mason SJ, Goddard L (2001) Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82: 619-638.
22. Murphy AH (1973) A new vector partition of the probability score. J Appl Meteorol 12: 595-600.
23. Peng P, Barnston AG, Kumar A (2013) A comparison of skill between two versions of the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS) and CPC's operational short-lead seasonal outlooks. Weather Forecast 28: 445-462.
24. Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15: 1609-1625.
25. Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115: 1606-1626.
26. Saha S et al (2006) The NCEP climate forecast system. J Clim 19: 3483-3517.
27. Saha S et al (2010) The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91: 1015-1057. doi: 10. 1175/2010BAMS3001. 1.
28. Saha S et al (2013) The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. J Clim 26 (unpublished).
29. Tippett MK, Barnston AG, Li S (2012) Performance of recent multimodel ENSO forecasts. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 51: 637-654.
30. van den Dool HM, Toth Z (1991) Why do forecasts for near normal often fail? Weather Forecast 6: 76-85.
31. Wang W, Xie P, Yo SH, Xue Y, Kumar A, Wu X (2011) An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Clim Dyn 37: 1601-1620. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-010-0935-7.
32. Weaver SJ, Wang WQ, Chen MY, Kumar A (2011) Representation of MJO variability in the NCEP climate forecast system. J Clim 24: 4676-4694.
33. Wilks DS (2006) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, 2nd edn. Academic Press, Oxford, p 648.
34. Xue Y, Huang B, Hu Z-Z, Kumar A, Wen C, Behringer D, Nadiga S (2011) An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Clim Dyn 37: 2511-2539. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-010-0954-4.
35. Xue Y, Chen M, Kumar A, Hu Z-Z, Wang W (2013) Prediction skill and bias of tropical Pacific Sea surface temperatures in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. J Clim 26. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1175/JCLI-D-12-00600. 1.
36. Zhang L, Kumar AK, Wang W (2012) Influence of changes in observations on precipitation: a case study for the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). J Geophys Res Atmos 117: D08105. doi: 10. 1029/2011JD017347.