Global patterns in the sensitivity of burned area to fire-weather: Implications for climate change

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Volumn 214-215, Issue , 2015, Pages 369-379

  Bedia, Joaquín ^a   Herrera, Sixto ^b   Gutiérrez, Jose Manuel ^a   Benali, Akli ^c   Brands, Swen ^a   Mota, Bernardo ^d   Moreno, Jose Manuel ^e  

^a INSTITUTO DE FÍSICA DE CANTABRIA CSIC UC   (Spain)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CANTABRIA   (Spain)

^c Universidade de Lisboa   (Portugal)

^d KING'S COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^e UNIVERSITY OF CASTILLA LA MANCHA   (Spain)

Author keywords

Biomass burning; CMIP5; Fire risk; Fire Weather Index; Forest fires; Pyrogeography

Indexed keywords

BIOMASS BURNING; BIOME; BIOPHYSICS; BROAD-LEAVED FOREST; CARBON CYCLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; DATABASE; FOREST FIRE; GLOBAL CHANGE; PHYLOGEOGRAPHY; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; VULNERABILITY;

AMAZON BASIN;

EID: 84941299869     PISSN: 01681923     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.002     Document Type: Article

References (77)

1. Abatzoglou J., Brown T. A comparison of statistical downscaling methods suited for wildfire applications. Int. J. Climatol. 2012, 32:772-780.
2. Andreae M.O., Merlet P. Emission of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 2001, 15:955-966.
3. Archibald S., Lehmann C.E.R., Gómez-Dans J.L., Bradstock R.A. Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2013, 110:6442-6447.
4. Archibald S., Nickless A., Scholes R.J., Schulze R. Methods to determine the impact of rainfall on fuels and burned area in southern African savannas. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2010, 19:774.
5. Archibald S., Roy D.P., van Wilgen B.W., Scholes R.J. What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa. Global Change Biol. 2009, 15:613-630.
6. Bartolomé E., Belward A.S. GLC2000: a new approach to global land cover mapping from Earth observation data. Int. J. Remote Sensing 2005, 26:1959-1977.
7. Batllori E., Parisien M.-A., Krawchuk M.A., Moritz M.A. Climate change-induced shifts in fire for mediterranean ecosystems. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2013, 22:1118-1129.
8. Bedia J., Herrera S., Camia A., Moreno J.M., Gutiérrez J.M. Forest fire danger projections in the mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios. Clim. Change 2014, 122:185-199.
9. Bedia J., Herrera S., MartA-n D.S., Koutsias N., Gutiérrez J.M. Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling. Clim. Change 2013, 120:229-247.
10. Benali A., Mota B., Pereira J., Carvalhais N., Oom D., Miller L. Bimodal fire regimes unveil the global scale anthropogenic fingerprint. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2015, (7 Sep).
11. Bi D., et al. The ACCESS coupled model: description, control climate and evaluation. Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J. 2012, 63:41-64.
12. Bond W.J., Keeley J.E. Fire as a global 'herbivore': the ecology and evolution of flammable ecosystems. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2005, 20:387-394.
13. Bond W.J., Woodward F.I., Midgley G.F. The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire. New Phytol. 2005, 165:525-537.
14. Boschetti L., Roy D.P. Defining a fire year for reporting and analysis of global interannual fire variability. J. Geophys. Res. 2008, 113:G03020.
15. Bowman D.M.J.S., et al. Fire in the Earth System. Science 2009, 324:481-484.
16. Bowman D.M.J.S., et al. The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth. J. Biogeogr. 2011, 38:2223-2236.
17. Bradstock R.A. A biogeographic model of fire regimes in australia: current and future implications. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2010, 19.
18. Brando P.M., et al. Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2014, 111:6347-6352.
19. Briggs C., Price R., Pearce G. Spatial prediction of wilfire hazard across New Zealand. Landcare Research Contract Report LC0506/014 2005, New Zealand Fire Service, Chrischurch, New Zealand, URL http://www.fire.org.nz/Research/Publishsed-Reports/Pages/Impact-of-Climate-Change-on-Long-term-Fire-Danger.aspx (accessed 11.06.12).
20. Chuvieco E., Giglio L., Justice C. Global characterization of fire activity: toward defining fire regimes from Earth observation data. Global Change Biol. 2008, 14(7):1488-1502.
21. Cochrane M.A. Fire science for rainforests. Nature 2003, 421:913-919.
22. deGroot W., Field R., Brady A., Roswintiarti O., Mohamad M. Development of the Indonesian and Malaysian fire danger rating systems. Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Global Change 2006, (12):165-180.
23. Dimitrakopoulos A., Bemmerzouk A., Mitsopoulos I. Evaluation of the Canadian fire weather index system in an eastern Mediterranean environment. Meteorol. Appl. 2011, (18):83-93.
24. Dufresne J.-L., et al. Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim. Dyn. 2013, 40:2123-2165.
25. Dunne J.P., et al. GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon earth system models. Part I: Physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. J. Clim. 2012, 25:6646-6665.
26. Flannigan M.D., Cantin A.S., de Groot W.J., Wotton M., Newbery A., Gowman L.M. Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century. Forest Ecol. Manag. 2013, 294:54-61.
27. Flannigan M.D., Stocks B.J., Wotton B.M. Climate change and forest fires. Sci. Total Environ. 2000, 262:221-229.
28. Giannakopoulos C., Le Sager P., Bindi M., Moriondo M., Kostopoulou E., Goodess C.M. Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2 degrees C global warming. Global Planet. Change 2009, 68:209-224. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.06.001.
29. Giglio L., Descloitres J., Justice C.O., Kaufman Y.J. An enhanced contextual fire detection algorithm for MODIS. Remote Sens. Environ. 2003, 87:273-282.
30. Giglio L., Randerson J.T., van der Werf G.R. Analysis of daily, monthly, and annual burned area using the fourth-generation global fire emissions database (GFED4): analysis of burned area. J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeosci. 2013, 118:317-328.
31. Groisman P.Y., Sherstyukov B.G., Razuvaev V.N., Knight R.W., Enloe J.G., Stroumentova N.S., Whitfield P.H., Forland E., Hannsen-Bauer I., Tuomenvirta H., Aleksandersson H., Mescherskaya A.V., Karl T.R. Potential forest fire danger over Northern Eurasia: changes during the 20th century. Global Planet. Change 2007, 56:371-386.
32. Harrington, J., Flannigan, M., Van Wagner, C., 1983. A study of the relation of components of the Fire Weather Index to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada 1953-80. Information Report PI-X-25, Petawawa Natl. Forestry Inst., Canadian Forestry Serv., Dept. of the Environ., Ontario, Canada. URL (accessed 05.06.15). http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/bookstore_pdfs/11759.pdf.
33. Hennessy, K., Lucas, C., Nicholls, N., Bathols, J., Suppiah, R., Ricketts, J., 2005. Climate change impacts on fire-weather in south-east Australia. Tech. rep., CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and Bushfire CRC and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. URL (accessed 23.08.13). http://laptop.deh.gov.au/soe/2006/publications/drs/pubs/334/lnd/ld_24_climate_change_impacts_on_fire_weather.pdf.
34. Herrera S., Bedia J., Gutiérrez J.M., Fernández J., Moreno J.M. On the projection of future fire danger conditions with various instantaneous/mean-daily data sources. Clim. Change 2013, 118:827-840.
35. Jolly W.M., Cochrane M.A., Freeborn P.H., Holden Z.A., Brown T.J., Williamson G.J., Bowman D.M.J.S. Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013. Nat. Commun. 2015, 6.
36. Krawchuk M.A., Moritz M.A. Constraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient. Ecology 2010, 92:121-132.
37. Krawchuk M.A., Moritz M.A., Parisien M.-A., Van Dorn J., Hayhoe K. Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire. PLoS ONE 2009, 4:e5102.
38. Le Page Y., Oom D., Silva J.M.N., Jonsson P., Pereira J.M.C. Seasonality of vegetation fires as modified by human action: observing the deviation from eco-climatic fire regimes. Global Ecol. Biogeogr 2010, 19:575-588.
39. Littell J., McKenzie D., Peterson D., Westerling A. Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003. Ecol. Appl. 2009, 19:1003-1021.
40. Lobell D.B., Cahill K.N., Field C.B. Historical effects of temperature and precipitation on California crop yields. Clim. Change 2007, 81:187-203.
41. Lobell D.B., Field C.B. Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 2007, 2:014002.
42. Meyn A., White P.S., Buhk C., Jentsch A. Environmental drivers of large, infrequent wildfires: the emerging conceptual model. Prog. Phys. Geog. 2007, 31:287-312.
43. Moritz M., Parisien M.-A., Batllori E., Krawchuk M., van Dorn J., Ganz D., Hayhoe K. Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity. Ecosphere 2012.
44. Muggeo V.M.R. Estimating regression models with unknown break-points. Stat. Med. 2003, 22:3055-3071.
45. Olson D.M., Dinerstein E., Wikramanayake E.D., Burgess N.D., Powell G.V.N., Underwood E.C., D'amico J.A., Itoua I., Strand H.E., Morrison J.C., Loucks C.J., Allnutt T.F., Ricketts T.H., Kura Y., Lamoreux J.F., Wettengel W.W., Hedao P., Kassem K.R. Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on earth a new global map of terrestrial ecoregions provides an innovative tool for conserving biodiversity. BioScience 2001, 51:933-938.
46. Oom D., Pereira J.M.C. Exploratory spatial data analysis of global MODIS active fire data. Int. J. Appl. Earth Observ. Geoinf. 2013, 21:326-340.
47. Pausas J., Paula S. Fuel shapes the fire-climate relationship: evidence from Mediterranean ecosystems. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2012, 1074-1082.
48. Pausas J.G., Fernández-Mu noz S. Fire regime changes in the western Mediterranean basin: from fuel-limited to drought-driven fire regime. Clim. Change 2012, 110:215-226.
49. Pausas J.G., Ribeiro E. The global fire-productivity relationship: fire and productivity. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2013, 22:728-736.
50. Pechony O., Shindell D.T. Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2010, 107:19167-19170.
51. Pereira M.G., Trigo R.M., da Camara C.C., Pereira J.M.C., Leite S.M. Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2005, 129:11-25.
52. Power M.J., et al. Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data. Clim. Dyn. 2008, 30:887-907.
53. R Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing 2015, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, URL http://www.R-project.org/.
54. Rothermel R.C. A mathematical model for predicting fire spread in wildland fuels. Research Paper INT-115 1972, USDA Forest Service, Ogden, Utah, USA, URL http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_int/int_rp115.pdf.
55. Schmidt G.A., et al. Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 2014, 6:141-184.
56. Scott A.C., Glasspool I.J. The diversification of Paleozoic fire systems and fluctuations in atmospheric oxygen concentration. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2006, 103:10861-10865.
57. Stocks B.J., et al. The Canadian forest fire danger rating system - an overview. For. Chron. 1989, 65:450-457.
58. Syphard A.D., Radeloff V.C., Keeley J.E., Hawbaker T.J., Clayton M.K., Stewart S.I., Hammer R.B. Human influence on California fire regimes. Ecol. Appl. 2007, 17:1388-1402.
59. Taylor K.E. Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 2001, 106:7183.
60. Taylor S., Alexander M. Science, technology, and human factors in fire danger rating: the Canadian experience. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2006, 15:121-135.
61. Tebaldi C., Arblaster J.M., Knutti R. Mapping model agreement on future climate projections. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2011, 38.
62. Thurner M., et al. Carbon stock and density of northern boreal and temperate forests. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2014, 23:297-310.
63. Turco M., Llasat M.-C., von Hardenberg J., Provenzale A. Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment. Clim. Change 2014, 125:369-380.
64. van der Werf G.R., Randerson J.T., Collatz G.J., Giglio L., Kasibhatla P.S., Arellano A.F., Olsen S.C., Kasischke E.S. Continental-scale partitioning of fire emissions during the 1997 to 2001 El Nio/La Nia Period. Science 2004, 303:73-76.
65. van Wagner C.E. Conversion of William's Severity Rating for use with the Fire Weather Index. Information Report PS-X-21 1970, Canadian Forestry Service, Ontario, Canada.
66. van Wagner C.E. Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. Forestry Tech. Rep. 35 1987, Canadian Forestry Service, Ottawa, Canada.
67. Van Wilgen B.W., Forsyth G.G., De Klerk H., Das S., Khuluse S., Schmitz P. Fire management in Mediterranean-climate shrublands: a case study from the Cape fynbos. South Afr. J. Appl. Ecol. 2010, 47.
68. Viedma O., Moity N., Moreno J.M. Changes in landscape fire-hazard during the second half of the 20th century: agriculture abandonment and the changing role of driving factors. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2015, 207:126-140.
69. Viegas D.X., Bovio G., Ferreira A., Nosenzo A., Sol B. Comparative study of various methods of fire danger evaluation in southern Europe. Int. J. Wildland Fire 1999, 9:235-246.
70. von Mises Fisher N.I. Statistical Analysis of Circular Data 1995, Cambridge University Press.
71. Voldoire A., et al. The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation. Clim. Dyn. 2013, 40:2091-2121.
72. Watanabe S., et al. MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments. Geosci. Model Dev. 2011, 4:845-872.
73. Weedon G.P., et al. Creation of the WATCH forcing data and its use to assess global and regional reference crop evaporation over land during the Twentieth Century. J. Hydrometeorol. 2011, 12:823-848.
74. Westerling A.L., Turner M.G., Smithwick E.A.H., Romme W.H., Ryan M.G. Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2011, 108:13165-13170.
75. Williams A.A.J., Karoly D.J., Tapper N. The sensitivity of Australian fire danger to climate change. Clim. Change 2001, 49:171-191.
76. Winkler J.A., Guentchev G.S., Liszewska M., Perdinan, Tan P.-N. Climate scenario development and applications for local/regional climate change impact assessments: an overview for the non-climate scientist. Geogr. Compass 2011, 5:301-328.
77. Yukimoto S., et al. Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model Version 1 (MRI-ESM1) - Model description. J. Clim. 2011, 25:6646-6665.