The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 12, Issue 8, 2017, Pages

  Guimares Nobre, G ^a   Jongman, B ^a,b   Aerts, J ^a   Ward, P J ^a  

^a INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Netherlands)

^b WORLD BANK GROUP   (United States)

Author keywords

climate variability; EA; ENSO; extreme rainfall; flood damage; NAO

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CLIMATOLOGY; FLOOD CONTROL; FLOOD DAMAGE; PRODUCTION PLATFORMS; RAIN;

CLIMATE VARIABILITY; ENSO; EXTREME RAINFALL; JOINT INFLUENCE; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONS; SEASONAL FORECASTS; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGES;

FLOODS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; ENVIRONMENTAL RISK; FLOOD; FLOOD DAMAGE; FLOODING; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; RAINFALL; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

EUROPE;

EID: 85029147891     PISSN: 17489318     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7c22     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Munich Re 2016 Natural Loss Events Worldwide 1980-2015 - Geographical Overview 2016
2. Jongman B, Hochrainer-stigler S, Feyen L, Aerts J C J H, Mechler R, Botzen W J W, Bouwer L M, Pflug G, Rojas R and Ward P J 2014 Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods Nat. Clim. Change 4 1-5
3. Apel H, Thieken A H, Merz B and Blöschl G 2004 Flood risk assessment associated uncertainty Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 4 295-308
4. Merz B et al 2014 Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 14 1921-42
5. Kirtman B et al 2013 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed T F Stocker (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)
6. Villafuerte M Q, Matsumoto J, Akasaka I, Takahashi H G, Kubota H and Cinco T A 2014 Long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the Philippines Atmos. Res. 137 1-13
7. Sun X, Thyer M, Renard B and Lang M 2014 A general regional frequency analysis framework for quantifying local-scale climate effects: a case study of ENSO effects on Southeast Queensland Rainfall J. Hydrol. 512 53-68
8. Rios-Cornejo D, Penas A, Alvarez-Esteban R and del Rio S 2015 Links between teleconnection patterns and precipitation in Spain Atmos. Res. 156 14-28
9. Casanueva A, Rodríguez-Puebla C, Frías M D and González-Reviriego N 2014 Variability of extreme precipitation over Europe and its relationships with teleconnection patterns Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18 709-25
10. Cannon A J 2015 Revisiting the nonlinear relationship between ENSO and winter extreme station precipitation in North America Int. J. Climatol. 35 4001-14
11. Ionita M, Boronean C and Chelcea S 2015 Seasonal modes of dryness and wetness variability over Europe and their connections with large scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature Clim. Dyn. 45 2803-29
12. Ward P J, Beets W, Bouwer L M, Aerts J C J H and Renssen H 2010 Sensitivity of river discharge to ENSO Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 1-6
13. Ward P J, Eisner S, Flörke M, Dettinger M D and Kummu M 2014 Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño-Southern Oscillation at the global scale Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18 47-66
14. Veldkamp T I E, Eisner S, Wada Y, Aerts J C J H and Ward P J 2015 Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 19 4081-98
15. Sun X, Renard B, Thyer M, Westra S and Lang M 2015 A global analysis of the asymmetric effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation J. Hydrol. 530 51-65
16. Hurrell J W, Kushnir Y, Otterson G and Visbeck M 2003 An Overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation North Atl Oscil. Clim. Significance Environ. Impact 134 263
17. Barnston A G and Livezey R E 1987 Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns Mon. Weather Rev. 115 1083-126
18. NOAA 2017 Northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/telecontents.shtml (Accessed: 21 March 2017)
19. Goddard L and Dilley M 2005 El Niño: Catastrophe or opportunity J. Clim. 18 651-65
20. Pinto J G, Zacharias S, Fink A H, Leckebusch G C and Ulbrich U 2009 Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO Clim. Dyn. 32 711-37
21. Mitchell D et al 2017 Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems Clim. Dyn. 48 3889-901
22. Rodó X, Baert E and Comin F A 1997 Climate Dynamics Variations in seasonal rainfall in Southern Europe during the present century : relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Clim. Dyn. 13 275-84
23. Mariotti A 2002 Euro-Mediterranean rainfall and ENSO - a seasonally varying relationship Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 54-9
24. Lopez-Bustins J A, Martin-Vide J and Sanchez-Lorenzo A 2008 Iberia winter rainfall trends based upon changes in teleconnection and circulation patterns Glob. Planet. Change 63 171-6
25. Gregersen I B, Madsen H, Rosbjerg D and Arnbjerg-Nielsen K 2013 A spatial and nonstationary model for the frequency of extreme rainfall events Water Resour. Res. 49 127-36
26. Struglia M V, Mariotti A and Filograsso A 2004 River discharge into the mediterranean sea: climatology and aspects of the observed variability J. Clim. 17 4740-51
27. Lorenzo M N, Taboada J J and Gimeno L 2008 Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain) Int. J. Climatol. 28 1493-505
28. Markovic D and Koch M 2014 Long-term variations and temporal scaling of hydroclimatic time series with focus on the German part of the Elbe River Basin Hydrol. Process. 28 2202-11
29. Bouwer L M, Vermaat J E and Aerts J C J H 2008 Regional sensitivities of mean and peak river discharge to climate variability in Europe J. Geophys. Res. 113 D19103
30. Dilley M and Heyman B N 1995 ENSO and disaster: droughts, floods and El Niño/Southern Oscillation warm events Disasters 19 181-93
31. Bouma M J, Kovats R S, Goubet S A, Cox J S and Haines A 1997 Global assessment of El Niño's disaster burden Lancet 350 1435-8
32. Ward P J, Jongman B, Kummu M, Dettinger M D, Sperna Weiland F C and Winsemius H C 2014b Strong influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 111 15659-64
33. Cantelaube P, Terres J and Doblas Reyes 2004 Influence of climate variability on European agriculture-analysis of winter wheat production Clim. Res. 27 135-44
34. Fuhrer J, Beniston M, Fischlin A, Frei C, Goyette S, Jasper K and Pfister C 2006 Climate risks and their impact on agriculture and forests in Switzerland Clim. Change 79 79-102
35. Brown I 2013 Influence of seasonal weather and climate variability on crop yields in Scotland Int. J. Biometeorol. 57 605-14
36. Hernández-Barrera S and Rodríguez-Puebla C 2017 Wheat yield in Spain and associated solar radiation patterns Int. J. Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4975
37. Irannezhad M, Chen D and Kløve B 2016 The role of atmospheric circulation patterns in agroclimate variability in finland, 1961-2011 Geogr. Ann. Ser. A, Phys. Geogr. 98 287-301
38. Munich Re 2016 NatCatSERVICE Database (Munich: Munich Reinsurance Company, Geo Risks Research) www.munichre.com/natcatservice (Accessed: 12 October 2016)
39. Haylock M, Hofstra N, Tank A K, Klok L, Jones P and New M 2008 A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 113 D20119
40. Jeong J-H and Ho C-H 2005 Changes in occurrence of cold surges over east Asia in association with Arctic Oscillation Geophys. Res. Lett. 32
41. Coles S, Bawa J, Trenner L and Dorazio P 2001 An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values (Berlin: Springer)
42. Prudhomme C and Genevier M 2011 Can atmospheric circulation be linked to flooding in Europe? Hydrol. Process. 25 1180-90
43. Livezey R E and Chen W Y 1983 Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques Mon. Weather Rev. 111 46-59
44. Iizumi T, Luo J-J, Challinor A J, Sakurai G, Yokozawa M, Sakuma H, Brown M E and Yamagata T 2014 Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops Nat. Commun. 5 3712
45. Merz B, Kundzewicz Z W, Delgado J, Hundecha Y and Kreibich H 2012 Detection and attribution of changes in flood hazard and risk Changes in flood risk in Europe (Boca Raton, FL: CRC) 435-58 pp
46. Barredo J I 2007 Major flood disasters in Europe: 1950-2005 Nat. Hazards 42 125-48
47. Kundzewicz Z W, Ulbrich U, Brücher T, Graczyk D, Krüger A, Leckebusch G C, Menzel L, Pińskwar I, Radziejewski M and Szwed M 2005 Summer floods in Central Europe - climate change track? Nat. Hazards 36 165-89
48. Hall J et al 2014 Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18 2735-72
49. Muis S, Verlaan M, Winsemius H C, Aerts J C J H and Ward P J 2016 A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels Nat. Commun. 7 11969
50. Quadrelli R, Pavan V and Molteni F 2001 Wintertime variability of Mediterranean precipitation and its links with large-scale circulation anomalies Clim. Dyn. 17 457-66
51. Uvo C B 2003 Analysis and regionalization of northern European winter precipitation based on its relationship with the North Atlantic oscillation Int. J. Climatol. 23 1185-94
52. Brönnimann S 2007 Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on European climate Rev. Geophys. 45 RG3003
53. Rocha A 1999 Low-frequency variability of seasonal rainfall over the Iberian Peninsula and ENSO Int. J. Climatol. 19 889-901
54. Frias M D, Herrera S, Cofino A S and Gutierrez J M 2010 Assessing the skill of precipitation and temperature seasonal forecasts in Spain: windows of opportunity related to ENSO events J. Clim. 23 209-20
55. Scussolini P, Aerts J C J H, Jongman B, Bouwer L M, Winsemius H C, de Moel H and Ward P J 2015 FLOPROS: an evolving global database of flood protection standards Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 3 7275-309
56. Jongman B, Winsemius H C, Aerts J C J H, de Perez E C, van Aalst M K, Kron W and Ward P J 2015 Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 112 E2271-80
57. Llasat M C, López L, Barnolas M and Llasat-Botija M 2008 Flash-floods in Catalonia: the social perception in a context of changing vulnerability Adv. Geosci. 17 63-70
58. Barredo J I 2009 Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970-2006 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 9 97-104
59. Pielke R A J and Downton M W 2000 Precipitation and damaging floods: trends in the United States, 1932-97 J. Clim. 13 3625-37
60. Scaife A A et al 2014 Skillful long range prediction of European and North American winters Geophys. Res. Lett. 5 2514-9
61. Smith D M, Scaife A A, Eade R and Knight J R 2016 Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142 611-7
62. Iglesias I, Lorenzo M N and Taboada J J 2014 Seasonal predictability of the east atlantic pattern from sea surface temperatures PLoS One 9 1-8
63. Gonzalez P L M and Goddard L 2016 Long-lead ENSO predictability from CMIP5 decadal hindcasts Clim. Dyn. 46 3127-47
64. Greatbatch R J 2004 Nonstationary impact of ENSO on Euro-Atlantic winter climate Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 4-7
65. Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Suárez-Moreno R, Ayarzagüena B, López-Parages J, Gómara I, Villamayor J, Mohino E, Losada T and Castaño-Tierno A 2016 A review of ENSO influence on the North Atlantic a non-stationary signal Atmosphere (Basel) 7 87
66. Ronghui H and Yifang W 1989 The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism Adv. Atmos. Sci. 6 21-32
67. Zhang R, Sumi A and Kimoto M 1999 A diagnostic study of the impact of El Nino on the precipitation in China Adv. Atmos. Sci. 16 229-41
68. Huang R, Chen J, Wang L and Lin Z 2012 Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatiooral variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system Adv. Atmos. Sci. 29 910-42
69. Wang L and Gu W 2016 The Eastern China flood of June 2015 and its causes Sci. Bull. 61 178-84
70. Kron W, Steuer M, Löw P and Wirtz A 2012 How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database - analysis of flood losses Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 12 535-50