Annual flood sensitivities to el nintild;O-Southern Oscillation at the global scale

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 18, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 47-66

  Ward, P J ^a,b   Eisner, S ^c   Flo Rke, M ^c   Dettinger, M D ^d,e   Kummu, M ^f  

^a INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Netherlands)

^b VU UNIVERSITY AMSTERDAM   (Netherlands)

^c UNIVERSITY OF KASSEL   (Germany)

^d U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^f AALTO UNIVERSITY   (Finland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AVERAGE FLOWS; DAILY DISCHARGE; ECONOMIC DAMAGES; INTERANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY; NATURAL HAZARD; NONSTATIONARY; PREDICTION RESEARCH; STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIP;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CLIMATE CHANGE;

FLOODS;

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; FLOOD FREQUENCY; GLOBAL CHANGE; RIVER DISCHARGE; TEMPORAL PERIOD;

EID: 84891859612     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-47-2014     Document Type: Article

References (84)

1. Alcamo, J., Döll, P., Henrichs, T., Kaspar, F., Lehner, B., Rösch, T., and Siebert, S.: Development and testing of the WaterGAP2 global model of water use and availability, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 317-337, doi:10.1623/hysj.48.3.317.45290, 2003. (Pubitemid 36704762)
2. Allamano, P., Claps. P., and Laio, F.: Global warming increases flood risk in mountainous areas, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L24404, doi:10.1029/ 2009GL041395, 2009.
3. Apipattanavis, S., McCabe, G. J., Rajagopalan, B., and Gangopadhyay, S.: Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer Drought Severity Index values, J. Climate, 22, 6251-6267, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2791.1, 2009.
4. Beebee, R. A. and Manga, M.: Variation in the relationship between snowmelt runoff in Oregon and ENSO and PDO, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 40, 1011-1024, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2004.tb01063.x, 2004. (Pubitemid 39252162)
5. Bell, G. D. and Janowiak, J. E.: Atmospheric circulation associated with the Midwest Floods of 1993, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 76, 681-695, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1995)076<0681:ACAWTM>2.0.CO;2, 1995.
6. Bouma, M. J., Kovats, R. S., Goubet, S.A., Cox, J. St. H., and Haines, A.: Global assessment of El Niño's disaster burden, The Lancet, 350, 1435-1438, doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(97)04509-1, 1997. (Pubitemid 28036865)
7. Bouwer, L. M., Vermaat, J. E., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Regional sensitivities of mean and peak river discharge to climate variability in Europe, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D19103, doi:10.1029/2008JD010301, 2008.
8. Brown, C. and Lall, U.: Water and economic development: The role of variability and a framework for resilience, Nat. Resour. Forum, 30, 306-317, doi:10.1111/j.1477-8947.2006.00118.x, 2006. (Pubitemid 46002397)
9. Cane, M. A.: The evolution of El Niño, past and future, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 230, 227-240, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2004.12.003, 2005.
10. Cayan, D. R. and Webb, R. H.: El Niño/Southern Oscillation and streamflow in the western United States, in: El Niño. Historical and paleoclimatic aspects of the Southern Oscillation, edited by: Diaz, H. F. and Markgraf, V., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 29-68, 1992.
11. Cayan, D. R., Redmond, K. T., and Riddle, L. G.: ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the western United States, J. Climate, 12, 2881-2893, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2881:EAHEIT>2.0.CO;2, 1999. (Pubitemid 30039782)
12. Cheng, Y., Tang, Y., and Chen, D.: Relationship between predictability and forecast skill of ENSO on various time scales, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C12006, doi:10.1029/2011JC007249, 2011.
13. Chiew, F. H. S. and McMahon, T. A.: Global ENSOstreamflow teleconnection, streamflow forecasting and interannual variability, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 47, 505-522, doi:10.1080/02626660209492950, 2002. (Pubitemid 34682467)
14. Conway, D., Persechino, A., Ardoin-Bardin, S., Hamandawana, H., Dieulin, C., and Mahe, G.: Rainfall and water resources variability in sub-Saharan Africa during the twentieth century, J. Hydrometeorol., 10, 41-59, doi:10.1175/2008JHM1004.1, 2009.
15. Costanza, R., d'Arge, R., De Groot, R., Farber, S., Grasso, M., Hannon, B., Limburg, K., Naeem, S., O'Neil, R. V., Paruelo, J., Raskin, R. G., Sutton, P., and Van Den Belt, M.: The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital, Nature, 387, 253-260, 1997.
16. Cunderlik, J. M. and Ouarda, T. B. M. J.: Trends in the timing and magnitude of floods in Canada, J. Hydrol., 375, 471-480, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol. 2009.06.050, 2009.
17. Dankers, R. and Feyen, L.: Climate change impact on flood hazard in Europe: An assessment based on high-resolution climate simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D19105, doi:10.1029/2007JD009719, 2008.
18. Dankers, R. and Feyen, L.: Flood hazard in Europe in an ensemble of regional climate scenarios, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D16108, doi:10.1029/2008JD011523, 2009.
19. Dettinger, M. D. and Diaz, H. F.: Global characteristics of stream flow seasonality and variability, J. Hydrometeorol., 1, 289-310, doi:10.1175/1525- 7541(2000)001<0289:GCOSFS>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
20. Dettinger, M. D., Cayan, D. R., and McCabe, G. J.: Multiscale streamflow variability associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, in: El Niño and the Southern Oscillation-Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts, edited by: Diaz, H. F. and Markgraf, V., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 113-147, 2000.
21. Dettinger, M. D., Battisti, D. S., Garreaud, R. D., McCabe, G. J., and Bitz, C. M.: Interhemispheric effects of interannual and decadal ENSO-like climate variations on the Americas, in: Interhemispheric climate linkages: Present and Past Climates in the Americas and their Societal Effects, edited by: Markgraf, V., Academic Press, San Diego, 1-16, 2001.
22. Di Baldassarre, G., Montanari, A., Lins, H., Koutsoyiannis, D., Brandimarte, L., and Blöschl, G.: Flood fatalities in Africa: From diagnosis to mitigation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22402, doi:10.1029/ 2010GL045467, 2010.
23. Dilley, M. and Heyman, B. N.: ENSO and disaster: Droughts, floods and El Niño/Southern Oscillation warm events, Disasters, 19, 181-193, 1995. (Pubitemid 26432302)
24. Döll, P., Kaspar, F., and Lehner, B.: A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: Model tuning and validation, J. Hydrol., 270, 105-134, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00283-4, 2003. (Pubitemid 36093349)
25. Douglas, E. M., Vogel, R. M., and Kroll, C. N.: Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: Impact of spatial correlation, J. Hydrol., 240, 90-105, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00336-X, 2000.
26. Feyen, L., Dankers, R., Bódis, K., Salamon, P., Barredo, J. I.: Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates, Climatic Change, 112, 47-62, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0339-7, 2012.
27. Gershunov, A. and Barnett, T. P.: Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 2715-2725, doi:10.1175/1520- 0477(1998)079<2715:IMOET>2.0.CO;2, 1998. (Pubitemid 128480920)
28. Gershunov, A., Barnett, T. P., and Cayan, D. R.: North Pacific interdecadal oscillation seen as factor in ENSO-related North American climate anomalies, EOS T. Am. Geophys. Un., 80, 25-30, doi:10.1029/99EO00019, 1999.
29. Goddard, L. and Dilley, M.: El Niño: Catastrophe or opportunity, J. Climate, 18, 651-665, doi:10.1175/JCLI-3277.1, 2005
30. Gudmundsson, L., Tallaksen, L. M., Stahl, K., Clark, D. B., Dumont, E., Hagemann, S., Bertrand, N., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Hanasaki, N., Voss, F., and Koirala, S.: Comparing large-scale hydrological model simulations to observed runoff percentiles in Europe, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 604-620, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-083.1, 2011.
31. Haddeland, I., Clark, D. B., Franssen, W., Ludwig, F., Voß, F., Arnell, N.W., Bertrand, N., Best, M., Folwell, S., Gerten, D., Gomes, S., Gosling, S. N., Hagemann, S., Hanasaki, N., Harding, R., Heinke, J., Kabat, P., Koirala, S., Oki, T., Polcher, J., Stacke, T., Viterbo, P., Weedon, G., and Yeh, P: Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: Setup and first results, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 869-884, doi:10.1175/2011JHM1324.1, 2011.
32. Hannaford, J. and Marsh, T. J.: High-flow and flood trends in a network of undisturbed catchments in the UK, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1325-1338, doi:10.1002/joc.1643, 2008.
33. Hidalgo, H. G. and Dracup, J. A.: ENSO and PDO effects on hydroclimatic variations of the Upper Colorado River Basin, J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 5-23, doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<0005:EAPEOH>2.0.CO;2, 2003. (Pubitemid 36400558)
34. Hirabayashi, Y., Kanae, S., Emori, S., Oki, T., and Kimoto, M.: Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 53, 754-772, doi:10.1623/hysj.53.4.754, 2008.
35. Hirabayashi, Y., Mahendran, R., Koirala, S., Konoshima, L., Yamazaki, D., Watanabe, S., Kim, H., and Kanae, S.: Global flood risk under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 816-821, doi:10.1038/nclimate1911, 2013
36. Hirsch, R. M. and Ryberg, K. R.: Has themagnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO2 levels, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 57, 1-9, doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.621895, 2012.
37. Hoerling, M. P., Kumar, A., and Zhong, M.: El Niño, La Niña, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections, J. Climate, 10, 1769-1786, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1769:ENOLNA>2.0.CO;2, 1997. (Pubitemid 127614030)
38. Hoerling, M., Quan, X., and Eischeid, J.: Distinct causes for two principal U.S. droughts of the 20th century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19708, doi:10.1029/2009GL039860, 2009.
39. Hoerling, M., Eischeid, J., and Perlwitz, J.: Regional Precipitation Trends: Distinguishing Natural Variability from Anthropogenic Forcing, J. Climate, 23, 2131-2145, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3420.1, 2010.
40. IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2012.
41. IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers. Draft report, IPCC-approved summary for policymakers, 36 p., http://www.climatechange2013. org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM-Approved27Sep2013. pdf, 2013.
42. Jongman, B., Ward, P. J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Global exposure to river and coastal flooding-long term trends and changes, Global Environ. Chang., 22, 823-835, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.004, 2012.
43. Kiladis, G. N. and Diaz, H. F.: Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation, J. Climatol., 2, 1069-1090, 10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<1069:GCAAWE>2.0.CO;2, 1989.
44. Kitoh, A., Kusunoki, S., and Nakaegawa, T.: Climate change projections over South America in the late 21st century with the 20 and 60 km mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRIAGCM), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D06105, doi:10.1029/2010JD014920, 2011.
45. Kottek, M., Grieser, J., Beck, C., Rudolf, B., and Rubel, F.: World Map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated, Meteorol. Z., 15, 259-263, doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0130, 2006. (Pubitemid 44027664)
46. Kummu, M., Ward, P. J., De Moel, H., and Varis, O.: Is physical water scarcity a new phenomenon Global assessment of water shortage over the last two millennia, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 034006, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034006, 2010.
47. Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N. W., Döll, P., Kabat, P., Jiménez, B., Miller, K.A., Oki, T., Sen, Z., and Shiklomanov, I. A.: In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, edited by: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., Van Der Linden, P. J., and Hanson, C. E., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 173-210, 2007.
48. Labat, D.: Cross wavelet analyses of annual continental freshwater discharge and selected climate indices, J. Hydrol., 385, 269-278, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.02.029, 2010.
49. Lehner, B., Doll, P., Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T., and Kaspar, F.: Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: A continental, integrated analysis, Clim. Change, 75, 273-299, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-6338-4, 2006. (Pubitemid 43800481)
50. Li, J., Xie, S.-P., Cook, E. R., Morales, M. S., Christie, D. A., Johnson, N. C., Chen, F., D'Arrigo, R., Fowler, A. M., Gou, X., and Fang, K.: El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 822-826, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1936, 2013.
51. Mann, M. E., Park, J., and Bradley, R. S.: Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries, Nature, 378, 266-270, doi:10.1038/378266a0, 1995. (Pubitemid 26444767)
52. Mann, M., Cane, M., Clement, A., and Zebiak, S. E.: Volcanic and solar forcing of El Nino over the past 1000 years, J. Climate, 18, 447-456, doi:10.1175/JCLI-3276.1, 2005. (Pubitemid 40323023)
53. McCabe Jr., G. J. and Dettinger, M. D.: Decadal variations in the strength of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western United States, Int. J. Climatol., 19, 1399-1410, doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19991115) 19:13<1399::AIDJOC457> 3.0.CO;2-A, 1999. (Pubitemid 30054519)
54. McCabe Jr., G. J., Palecki, M. A., and Betancourt, J. L.: Pacific and Atlantic influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA., 101, 4136-4141, doi:10.1073/pnas.0306738101, 2004. (Pubitemid 38405895)
55. McPhaden, M. J., Zebiak, S. E., and Glantz, M. H.: ENSO as an integrating concept in Earth Science, Science, 314, 1740-1745, doi:10.1126/science.1132588, 2006. (Pubitemid 44969078)
56. Meyers, G., McIntosh, P., Pigot, L., and Pook, M.: The years of El Niño, La Niña, and interactions with the tropical Indian ocean, J. Climate, 20, 2872-2880, doi:10.1175/JCLI4152.1, 2007. (Pubitemid 47099270)
57. Milly, P. C. D., Wetherald, R. T., Dunne, K. A., and Delworth, T. L.: Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate, Nature, 415, 514-517, doi:10.1038/415514a, 2002. (Pubitemid 34130603)
58. Mirza, M. M. Q.: Climate change, flooding in South Asia and implications, Reg. Environ. Change, 11, S95-S107, doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0184-7, 2011.
59. Mudelsee, M., Borngen, M., Tetzlaff, G., and Grunewald, U.: No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe, Nature, 425, 166-169, doi:10.1038/nature01928, 2003. (Pubitemid 37150891)
60. Mullan, A. B.: On the linearity and stability of Southern Oscillationclimate relationships for New Zealand. Internat, J. Climatolog., 15, 1365-1386, 1995. (Pubitemid 26446013)
61. Munich Re: Topics Geo 2012 Issue. Natural Catastrophes 2011.
62. Analyses, Assessments, Positions, Münchener Rückversicherungs- Gesellschaft, Munich, 2012.
63. Neelin, J. D., Jin, F.-F., and Syu, H.-H.: Variations in ENSO phase locking, J. Climate, 13, 2570-2590, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013M2570: VIEPL>2.0CO.2, 2000.
64. Piechota, T. C. and Dracup, J. A.: Drought and regional hydrologic variation in the United States: Associations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Water Resour. Res., 32, 1359-1373, doi:10.1029/96WR00353, 1996. (Pubitemid 26287611)
65. Piechota, T. C., Dracup, J. A., and Fovell, R. G.: Western US streamflow and atmospheric circulation patterns during El Niño Southern Oscillation, J. Hydrol., 201, 249-271, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00043-7, 1997. (Pubitemid 28037763)
66. Power, S., Delage, F., Chung, C., Kociuba, G., and Keay, K.: Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Nino and related precipitation variability, Nature, 502, 541-545, doi:10.1038/nature12580, 2013.
67. Prudhomme, C., Parry, S., Hannaford, J., and Clark, D. B.: How well do large-scale models reproduce regional hydrological extremes in Europe, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 1181-1204, doi:10.1175/2011JHM1387.1, 2011
68. Räsänen, T. A. and Kummu, M.: Spatiotemporal influences of ENSO on precipitation and flood pulse in the Mekong Basin, J. Hydrol., 476, 154-168, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.10.028, 2013.
69. Redmond, K. T. and Koch, R. W.: Surface climate and streamflow variability in the Western United States and their relationship to large-scale circulation indices, Water Resour. Res., 27, 2381-2399, doi:10.1029/91WR00690, 1991.
70. Shiklomanov, A. I., Lammers, R. B., Rawlins, M. A., Smith, L. C., and Pavelsky, T. M.: Temporal and spatial variations in maximum river discharge from a new Russian data set, J. Geophys. Res., 112, G04S53, doi:10.1029/ 2006JG000352, 2007. (Pubitemid 351314171)
71. Torrence, C. andWebster, P. J.: Interdecadal Changes in the ENSOMonsoon System, J. Climate, 12, 2679-2690, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2679: ICITEM>2.0.CO;2, 1999.
72. Tudhope, A. W., Chilcott, C. P., McCulloch, M. T., Cook, E. R., Chappell, J., Ellam, R. M., Lea, D. W., Lough, J. M., and Shimmield, G. B.: Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation Through a Glacial-Interglacial Cycle, Science, 291, 1511-1517, doi:10.1126/science.1057969, 2001. (Pubitemid 32179211)
73. Ummenhofer, C. C., England, M. H., McIntosh, P. C., Meyers, G. A., Pook, M. J., Risbey, J. S., Gupta, A. S., and Taschetto, A. S.: What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04706, doi:10.1029/2008GL036801, 2009.
74. UNISDR: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Secretariat, Geneva, 2011.
75. Uppala, S. M., Kallberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Da Costa Bechtold, V., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., Van De Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Holm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P., Jenne, R., McNally, A. P., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette, J.-J., Rayner, N. A., Sanuders, R. W., Simon, P., Serl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., andWoolen, J.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131B, 2961-3012, doi:10.1256/qj.04.176, 2005. (Pubitemid 43186171)
76. Villarini, G. and Smith, J. A.: Flood peak distributions for the Eastern United States, Water Resour. Res., 46, W06504, doi:10.1029/2009WR008395, 2010.
77. Villarini, G., Serinaldi, F., Smith, J. A., and Krajewski, W. F.: On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century, Water Resour. Res., 45, W08417, doi:10.1029/2008WR007645, 2009.
78. Wang, B., Yang, J., Zhou, T., and Wang, B.: Inter-decadal changes in the major modes of Asian-Australian monsoon variability: Strengthening relationship with ENSO since the late 1970s, J. Climate, 21, 1771-1789, doi:10.1175/ 2007JCLI1981.1, 2008. (Pubitemid 351753181)
79. Ward, P. J., Beets, W., Bouwer, L. M., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Renssen, H.: Sensitivity of river discharge to ENSO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L12402, doi:10.1029/2010GL043215, 2010.
80. Ward, P. J., Jongman, B., Sperna Weiland, F., Bouwman, A., Van Beek, R., Bierkens, M., Ligtvoet, W., and Winsemius, H.: Assessing flood risk at the global scale: Model setup, results, and sensitivity, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 044019, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044019, 2013.
81. Waylen, P. R. and Caviedes, C. N.: El Niño and annual floods on the north Peruvian littoral, J. Hydrol., 89, 141-156, doi:10.1016/0022-1694(86) 90148-4, 1986. (Pubitemid 17516090)
82. Weedon, G. P., Gomes, S., Viterbo, P., Shuttleworth, W. J., Blyth, E., Österle, H., Adam, J. C., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., and Best, M.: Creation of the WATCH forcing data and its use to assess global and regional reference crop evaporation over land during the twentieth century, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 823-848, doi:10.1175/2011JHM1369.1, 2011.
83. Wunsch, C.: The Interpretation of Short Climate Records, with Comments on the North Atlantic and Southern Oscillations, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 245-255, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<0245:TIOSCR>2.0.CO;2, 1999. (Pubitemid 129565082)
84. Zubair, L. and Chandimala, J.: Epochal Changes in ENSO-Streamflow Relationships in Sri Lanka, J. Hydrometeorol, 7, 1237-1246, doi:10.1175/JHM546. 1, 2006. (Pubitemid 46111233)