Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 48, Issue 11-12, 2017, Pages 3889-3901

  Mitchell, Daniel ^a   Davini, Paolo ^b   Harvey, Ben ^c   Massey, Neil ^a   Haustein, Karsten ^a   Woollings, Tim ^a   Jones, Richard ^a,d   Otto, Fredi ^a   Guillod, Benoit ^a   Sparrow, Sarah ^a   Wallom, David ^a   Allen, Myles ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b ECOLE NORMALE SUPÉRIEURE   (France)

^c UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^d MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Dynamics; Event attribution; Extreme; Mid latitudes

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKING; ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS; ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; EXTREME EVENT; MIDLATITUDE ENVIRONMENT;

EUROPE;

EID: 84983441085     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3308-z     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Anstey JA, Davini P, Gray LJ, Woollings TJ, Butchart N, Cagnazzo C, Christiansen B, Hardiman SC, Osprey SM, Yang S (2013) The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate north atlantic extratropical cyclones. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(10):3956
2. Barnes EA, Dunn-Sigouin E, Masato G, Woollings T (2014) Exploring recent trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking. Geophys Res Lett 41(2):638
3. Berckmans J, Woollings T, Demory ME, Vidale PL, Roberts M (2013) Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean state, orography and eddy forcing. Atmos Sci Lett 14(1):34
4. Chang EK, Guo Y, Xia X (2012) CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming. J Geophys Res Atmos 117(D23):D23118
5. Christidis N, Stott PA (2015) Changes in the geopotential height at 500 hPa under the influence of external climatic forcings. Geophys Res Lett 42(24). doi:10.1002/2015GL066669
6. Davini P, Cagnazzo C, Gualdi S, Navarra A (2012) Bidimensional diagnostics, variability, and trends of Northern Hemisphere blocking. J Clim 25(19):6496
7. Davini P, Cagnazzo C (2014) On the misinterpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 43(5–6):1497
8. Dawson A, Palmer T (2014) Simulating weather regimes: impact of model resolution and stochastic parameterization. Clim Dyn 44(7–8):2177
9. Dawson A, Palmer T, Corti S (2012) Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models. Geophys Res Lett 39(21):L21805
10. Dee D, Uppala S, Simmons A, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda M, Balsamo G, Bauer P et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137(656):553
11. Dunn-Sigouin E, Son SW (2013) Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(3):1179
12. Hannachi A, Barnes EA, Woollings T (2013) Behaviour of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations. Clim Dyn 41(3–4):995
13. Harvey B, Shaffrey L, Woollings T (2014) Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models. Clim Dyn 43(5–6):1171
14. Hoskins BJ, Hodges KI (2002) New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. J Atmos Sci 59(6):1041
15. Hoskins B, Woollings T (2015) Persistent extratropical regimes and climate extremes. Curr Clim Change Rep 1(3):115
16. Huntingford C, Marsh T, Scaife AA, Kendon EJ, Hannaford J, Kay AL, Lockwood M, Prudhomme C, Reynard NS, Parry S et al (2014) Potential influences on the United Kingdom’s floods of winter 2013/14. Nat Clim Change 4(9):769
17. Hurrell J, Hack J, Shea D, Caron J, Rosinski J (2008) A new sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary dataset for the Community Atmosphere Model. J Clim 21(19):5145
18. Inatsu M, Hoskins BJ (2004) The zonal asymmetry of the Southern Hemisphere winter storm track. J Clim 17(24):4882
19. Jaeger E, Seneviratne S (2011) Impact of soil moisture-atmosphere coupling on European climate extremes and trends in a regional climate model. Clim Dyn 36(9–10):1919
20. Keeley S, Sutton R, Shaffrey L (2012) The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate. Q J R Meteorol Soc 138(668):1774
21. Knutti R, Furrer R, Tebaldi C, Cermak J, Meehl GA (2010) Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models. J Clim 23(10):2739
22. Knutti R (2010) The end of model democracy? Clim Change 102(3–4):395
23. Lewis SC, Karoly DJ (2013) Anthropogenic contributions to Australia’s record summer temperatures of 2013. Geophys Res Lett 40(14):3705
24. Lu J, Greatbatch RJ (2002) The changing relationship between the NAO and northern hemisphere climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 29(7):52
25. Massey N, Jones R, Otto F, Aina T, Wilson S, Murphy J, Hassell D, Yamazaki Y, Allen M et al (2014) weather@ home-development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution. Q J R Meteorol Soc 141:1528–1545
26. Mitchell D, Gray L, Anstey J, Baldwin M, Charlton-Perez A (2013) The influence of stratospheric vortex displacements and splits on surface climate. J Clim 26(8):2668–2682
27. Mitchell D, Heaviside C, Vardoulakis S, Huntingford C, Masato G, Guillod BP, Frumhoff P, Bowery A, Wallom D, Allen M (2016) Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change. Environ Res Lett 11(7):074006. http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=7/a=074006
28. Pall P, Aina T, Stone DA, Stott PA, Nozawa T, Hilberts AG, Lohmann D, Allen MR (2011) Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Nature 470(7334):382
29. Palmer T (2013) Climate extremes and the role of dynamics. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110(14):5281
30. Santos JA, Woollings T, Pinto JG (2013) Are the winters 2010 and 2012 archetypes exhibiting extreme opposite behavior of the North Atlantic jet stream? Mon Weather Rev 141(10):3626
31. Scaife AA, Copsey D, Gordon C, Harris C, Hinton T, Keeley S, O’Neill A, Roberts M, Williams K (2011) Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model. Geophys Res Lett 38(23):L23703
32. Schaller N, Kay AL, Lamb R, Massey NR, Van Oldenborgh GJ, Otto FE, Sparrow SN, Vautard R, Yiou P, Ashpole I et al (2016) Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nat Clim Change 6:627–634
33. Seviour WJM, Gray LJ, Mitchell DM (2016) Strato- spheric polar vortex splits and displacements in the high-top CMIP5 climate models. J Geophys Res Atmos 121:1400–1413. doi:10.1002/2015JD024178
34. Sippel S, Mitchell D, Black MT, Dittus AJ, Harrington L, Schaller N, Otto FE (2015) Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events. Weather Clim Extrem 9:25
35. Stainforth DA, Aina T, Christensen C, Collins M, Faull N, Frame D, Kettleborough J, Knight S, Martin A, Murphy J et al (2005) Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature 433(7024):403
36. Stephenson D, Pavan V, Collins M, Junge M, Quadrelli R et al (2006) North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment. Clim Dyn 27(4):401
37. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485
38. Tibaldi S, Molteni F (1990) On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus 42A:343
39. Uhe P, Otto FEL, Haustein K, van Oldenborgh GJ, King A, Wallom D, Allen MR, Cullen H (2016) Comparison of Methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1002/2016GL069568
40. Waugh DW, Eyring V (2008) Quantitative performance metrics for stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models. Atmos Chem Phys 8(18):5699
41. Williams K, Harris C, Bodas-Salcedo A, Camp J, Comer R, Copsey D, Fereday D, Graham T, Hill R, Hinton T et al (2015) The met office global coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration. Geosci Model Dev Discuss 8(1):521
42. Woollings T, Charlton-Perez A, Ineson S, Marshall A, Masato G (2010) Associations between stratospheric variability and tropospheric blocking. J Geophys Res 115(D6):D06108
43. Woollings T, Czuchnicki C, Franzke C (2014) Twentieth century North Atlantic jet variability. Q J R Meteorol Soc 140(680):783
44. Zappa G, Shaffrey LC, Hodges KI (2013) The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate north atlantic extratropical cyclones. J Clim 26(15):5379