메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 50, Issue 11-12, 2018, Pages 4171-4188

North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections

Author keywords

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Bayesian Model Averaging; Climate modeling; Model structural error; Probabilistic projections

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CLIMATE MODELING; ERROR ANALYSIS; MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; OVERTURN; PROBABILITY;

EID: 85027985733     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3867-7     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (8)

References (70)
  • 1
    • 34250633937 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wally was right: predictive ability of the North Atlantic “conveyor belt” hypothesis for abrupt climate change
    • Alley RB (2007) Wally was right: predictive ability of the North Atlantic “conveyor belt” hypothesis for abrupt climate change. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 35:241–272. doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.35.081006.131524
    • (2007) Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci , vol.35 , pp. 241-272
    • Alley, R.B.1
  • 2
    • 85006788871 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fate of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation: strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting
    • Bakker P, Schmittner A, Lenaerts JTM et al (2016) Fate of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation: strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting. Geophys Res Lett 2016GL070457. doi:10.1002/2016GL070457
    • (2016) Geophys Res Lett 2016GL070457
    • Bakker, P.1    Schmittner, A.2    Lenaerts, J.T.M.3
  • 3
    • 83555176280 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate projections using Bayesian Model averaging and space-time dependence
    • Bhat KS, Haran M, Terando A, Keller K (2011) Climate projections using Bayesian Model averaging and space-time dependence. J Agric Biol Environ Stat 16:606–628. doi:10.1007/s13253-011-0069-3
    • (2011) J Agric Biol Environ Stat , vol.16 , pp. 606-628
    • Bhat, K.S.1    Haran, M.2    Terando, A.3    Keller, K.4
  • 4
    • 84861522740 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inferring likelihoods and climate system characteristics from climate models and multiple tracers
    • Bhat KS, Haran M, Olson R, Keller K (2012) Inferring likelihoods and climate system characteristics from climate models and multiple tracers. Environmetrics 23:345–362. doi:10.1002/env.2149
    • (2012) Environmetrics , vol.23 , pp. 345-362
    • Bhat, K.S.1    Haran, M.2    Olson, R.3    Keller, K.4
  • 5
    • 84976909137 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Emerging impact of Greenland meltwater on deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean
    • Böning CW, Behrens E, Biastoch A et al (2016) Emerging impact of Greenland meltwater on deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean. Nat Geosci 9:523–527. doi:10.1038/ngeo2740
    • (2016) Nat Geosci , vol.9 , pp. 523-527
    • Böning, C.W.1    Behrens, E.2    Biastoch, A.3
  • 6
    • 0030657055 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2 upset the current balance?
    • 2 upset the current balance? Science 278:1582–1588. doi:10.1126/science.278.5343.1582
    • (1997) Science , vol.278 , pp. 1582-1588
    • Broecker, W.S.1
  • 7
    • 28444480226 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25°N
    • Bryden HL, Longworth HR, Cunningham SA (2005) Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25°N. Nature 438:655–657. doi:10.1038/nature04385
    • (2005) Nature , vol.438 , pp. 655-657
    • Bryden, H.L.1    Longworth, H.R.2    Cunningham, S.A.3
  • 8
    • 81755186955 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • South Atlantic overturning circulation at 24°S
    • Bryden HL, King BA, McCarthy GD (2011) South Atlantic overturning circulation at 24°S. J Mar Res 69:39–56
    • (2011) J Mar Res , vol.69 , pp. 39-56
    • Bryden, H.L.1    King, B.A.2    McCarthy, G.D.3
  • 9
    • 84956621105 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: a review
    • Buckley MW, Marshall J (2016) Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A review. Rev Geophys 54:2015RG000493. doi:10.1002/2015RG000493
    • (2016) Rev Geophys , vol.54
    • Buckley, M.W.1    Marshall, J.2
  • 10
    • 84903753270 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fast dimension-reduced climate model calibration and the effect of data aggregation
    • Chang W, Haran M, Olson R, Keller K (2014) Fast dimension-reduced climate model calibration and the effect of data aggregation. Ann Appl Stat 8:649–673. doi:10.1214/14-AOAS733
    • (2014) Ann Appl Stat , vol.8 , pp. 649-673
    • Chang, W.1    Haran, M.2    Olson, R.3    Keller, K.4
  • 11
    • 84936916896 scopus 로고
    • Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots
    • Cleveland WS (1979) Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots. J Am Stat Assoc 74:829–836. doi:10.1080/01621459.1979.10481038
    • (1979) J Am Stat Assoc , vol.74 , pp. 829-836
    • Cleveland, W.S.1
  • 12
    • 34548134146 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N
    • Cunningham SA, Kanzow T, Rayner D et al (2007) Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N. Science 317:935–938. doi:10.1126/science.1141304
    • (2007) Science , vol.317 , pp. 935-938
    • Cunningham, S.A.1    Kanzow, T.2    Rayner, D.3
  • 13
    • 84982933573 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atlantic multidecadal variability in a model with an improved North Atlantic current
    • Drews A, Greatbatch RJ (2016) Atlantic multidecadal variability in a model with an improved North Atlantic current. Geophys Res Lett 43:2016GL069815. doi:10.1002/2016GL069815
    • (2016) Geophys Res Lett , vol.43
    • Drews, A.1    Greatbatch, R.J.2
  • 14
    • 84871863227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Is a decline of AMOC causing the warming hole above the north Atlantic in observed and modeled warming patterns?
    • Drijfhout S, van Oldenborgh GJ, Cimatoribus A (2012) Is a decline of AMOC causing the warming hole above the north Atlantic in observed and modeled warming patterns? J Clim 25:8373–8379. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00490.1
    • (2012) J Clim , vol.25 , pp. 8373-8379
    • Drijfhout, S.1    van Oldenborgh, G.J.2    Cimatoribus, A.3
  • 15
    • 33644634932 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings
    • Forest CE, Stone PH, Sokolov AP (2006) Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings. Geophys Res Lett 33:L01705. doi:10.1029/2005GL023977
    • (2006) Geophys Res Lett , vol.33 , pp. L01705
    • Forest, C.E.1    Stone, P.H.2    Sokolov, A.P.3
  • 16
    • 84941735297 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Response of Atlantic overturning to future warming in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model
    • Gierz P, Lohmann G, Wei W (2015) Response of Atlantic overturning to future warming in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model. Geophys Res Lett 42:2015GL065276. doi:10.1002/2015GL065276
    • (2015) Geophys Res Lett , vol.42
    • Gierz, P.1    Lohmann, G.2    Wei, W.3
  • 17
    • 78650026628 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What is the skill of ocean tracers in reducing uncertainties about ocean diapycnal mixing and projections of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation?
    • Goes M, Urban NM, Tonkonojenkov R et al (2010) What is the skill of ocean tracers in reducing uncertainties about ocean diapycnal mixing and projections of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation? J Geophys Res Oceans. doi:10.1029/2010JC006407
    • (2010) J Geophys Res Oceans
    • Goes, M.1    Urban, N.M.2    Tonkonojenkov, R.3
  • 19
    • 78649286836 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global surface temperature change
    • Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Lo K (2010) Global surface temperature change. Rev Geophys 48:RG4004. doi:10.1029/2010RG000345
    • (2010) Rev Geophys , vol.48 , pp. RG4004
    • Hansen, J.1    Ruedy, R.2    Sato, M.3    Lo, K.4
  • 20
    • 79957950573 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport
    • Hawkins E, Smith RS, Allison LC et al (2011) Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport. Geophys Res Lett 38:L10605. doi:10.1029/2011GL047208
    • (2011) Geophys Res Lett , vol.38 , pp. L10605
    • Hawkins, E.1    Smith, R.S.2    Allison, L.C.3
  • 21
    • 84892462142 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Centennial-scale sea surface temperature analysis and its uncertainty
    • Hirahara S, Ishii M, Fukuda Y (2013) Centennial-scale sea surface temperature analysis and its uncertainty. J Clim 27:57–75. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00837.1
    • (2013) J Clim , vol.27 , pp. 57-75
    • Hirahara, S.1    Ishii, M.2    Fukuda, Y.3
  • 23
    • 73949144063 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
    • Hofmann M, Rahmstorf S (2009) On the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:20584–20589. doi:10.1073/pnas.0909146106
    • (2009) Proc Natl Acad Sci , vol.106 , pp. 20584-20589
    • Hofmann, M.1    Rahmstorf, S.2
  • 24
    • 84923008551 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: upgrades and intercomparisons
    • Huang B, Banzon VF, Freeman E et al (2014) Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: upgrades and intercomparisons. J Clim 28:911–930. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00006.1
    • (2014) J Clim , vol.28 , pp. 911-930
    • Huang, B.1    Banzon, V.F.2    Freeman, E.3
  • 25
    • 84964574581 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Further Exploring and quantifying uncertainties for extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) version 4 (v4)
    • Huang B, Thorne PW, Smith TM et al (2015) Further Exploring and quantifying uncertainties for extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) version 4 (v4). J Clim 29:3119–3142. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0430.1
    • (2015) J Clim , vol.29 , pp. 3119-3142
    • Huang, B.1    Thorne, P.W.2    Smith, T.M.3
  • 26
    • 77953254728 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An indicator of the multiple equilibria regime of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
    • Huisman SE, den Toom M, Dijkstra HA, Drijfhout S (2010) An indicator of the multiple equilibria regime of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. J Phys Oceanogr 40:551–567. doi:10.1175/2009JPO4215.1
    • (2010) J Phys Oceanogr , vol.40 , pp. 551-567
    • Huisman, S.E.1    den Toom, M.2    Dijkstra, H.A.3    Drijfhout, S.4
  • 27
    • 84992344976 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A cold and fresh ocean surface in the Nordic Seas during MIS 11: significance for the future ocean
    • Kandiano ES, van der Meer MTJ, Bauch HA et al (2016) A cold and fresh ocean surface in the Nordic Seas during MIS 11: significance for the future ocean. Geophys Res Lett 43:2016GL070294. doi:10.1002/2016GL070294
    • (2016) Geophys Res Lett , vol.43
    • Kandiano, E.S.1    van der Meer, M.T.J.2    Bauch, H.A.3
  • 28
    • 77955357596 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N
    • Kanzow T, Cunningham SA, Johns WE et al (2010) Seasonal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N. J Clim 23:5678–5698. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3389.1
    • (2010) J Clim , vol.23 , pp. 5678-5698
    • Kanzow, T.1    Cunningham, S.A.2    Johns, W.E.3
  • 29
    • 84884590038 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the subarctic North Atlantic cooling due to global warming
    • Kim H, An S-I (2013) On the subarctic North Atlantic cooling due to global warming. Theor Appl Climatol 114:9–19. doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0805-9
    • (2013) Theor Appl Climatol , vol.114 , pp. 9-19
    • Kim, H.1    An, S.-I.2
  • 30
    • 34247252748 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the driving processes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
    • Kuhlbrodt T, Griesel A, Montoya M et al (2007) On the driving processes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Rev Geophys 45:RG2001. doi:10.1029/2004RG000166
    • (2007) Rev Geophys , vol.45 , pp. RG2001
    • Kuhlbrodt, T.1    Griesel, A.2    Montoya, M.3
  • 31
    • 81755166583 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity of distributions of climate system properties to the surface temperature dataset
    • Libardoni AG, Forest CE (2011) Sensitivity of distributions of climate system properties to the surface temperature dataset. Geophys Res Lett 38:L22705. doi:10.1029/2011GL049431
    • (2011) Geophys Res Lett , vol.38 , pp. L22705
    • Libardoni, A.G.1    Forest, C.E.2
  • 32
    • 84921365431 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation of the past, present, and future
    • Liu W, Liu Z (2014) Assessing the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation of the past, present, and future. J Meteorol Res 28:803–819. doi:10.1007/s13351-014-4006-6
    • (2014) J Meteorol Res , vol.28 , pp. 803-819
    • Liu, W.1    Liu, Z.2
  • 33
    • 84923033018 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4): part II. Parametric and structural uncertainty estimations
    • Liu W, Huang B, Thorne PW et al (2014) Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4): part II. Parametric and structural uncertainty estimations. J Clim 28:931–951. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00007.1
    • (2014) J Clim , vol.28 , pp. 931-951
    • Liu, W.1    Huang, B.2    Thorne, P.W.3
  • 34
    • 0000284534 scopus 로고
    • Two stable equilibria of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model
    • Manabe S, Stouffer RJ (1988) Two stable equilibria of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Clim 1:841–866. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1988)001%3C0841:TSEOAC%3E2.0.CO;2
    • (1988) J Clim , vol.1 , pp. 841-866
    • Manabe, S.1    Stouffer, R.J.2
  • 35
    • 0027789088 scopus 로고
    • 2 on the ocean–atmosphere system
    • 2 on the ocean–atmosphere system. Nature 364:215–218. doi:10.1038/364215a0
    • (1993) Nature , vol.364 , pp. 215-218
    • Manabe, S.1    Stouffer, R.J.2
  • 37
    • 84903649787 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
    • Meijers AJS (2014) The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. Philos Trans R Soc Lond Math Phys Eng Sci 372:20130296. doi:10.1098/rsta.2013.0296
    • (2014) Philos Trans R Soc Lond Math Phys Eng Sci , vol.372 , pp. 20130296
    • Meijers, A.J.S.1
  • 38
    • 77956576768 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian model averaging: theoretical developments and practical applications
    • Montgomery JM, Nyhan B (2010) Bayesian model averaging: theoretical developments and practical applications. Polit Anal 18:245–270. doi:10.1093/pan/mpq001
    • (2010) Polit Anal , vol.18 , pp. 245-270
    • Montgomery, J.M.1    Nyhan, B.2
  • 39
    • 76749096338 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
    • Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756. doi:10.1038/nature08823
    • (2010) Nature , vol.463 , pp. 747-756
    • Moss, R.H.1    Edmonds, J.A.2    Hibbard, K.A.3
  • 41
    • 78149237247 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reversed flow of Atlantic deep water during the Last Glacial Maximum
    • Negre C, Zahn R, Thomas AL et al (2010) Reversed flow of Atlantic deep water during the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature 468:84–88. doi:10.1038/nature09508
    • (2010) Nature , vol.468 , pp. 84-88
    • Negre, C.1    Zahn, R.2    Thomas, A.L.3
  • 43
    • 84857488239 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A climate sensitivity estimate using Bayesian fusion of instrumental observations and an Earth System model
    • Olson R, Sriver R, Goes M et al (2012) A climate sensitivity estimate using Bayesian fusion of instrumental observations and an Earth System model. J Geophys Res Atmosp 117:D04103. doi:10.1029/2011JD016620
    • (2012) J Geophys Res Atmosp , vol.117 , pp. D04103
    • Olson, R.1    Sriver, R.2    Goes, M.3
  • 44
    • 84978499811 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A simple method for Bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections: application to southeast Australian temperatures
    • Olson R, Fan Y, Evans JP (2016) A simple method for Bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections: application to southeast Australian temperatures. Geophys Res Lett 43:2016GL069704. doi:10.1002/2016GL069704
    • (2016) Geophys Res Lett , vol.43
    • Olson, R.1    Fan, Y.2    Evans, J.P.3
  • 45
    • 84931261070 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Key physical variables in the ocean: temperature, salinity, and density
    • Pawlowicz R (2013) Key physical variables in the ocean: temperature, salinity, and density. Nat Educ Knowl 4:1:13
    • (2013) Nat Educ Knowl , vol.4 , pp. 13
    • Pawlowicz, R.1
  • 46
    • 20444497873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles
    • Raftery AE, Gneiting T, Balabdaoui F, Polakowski M (2005) Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon Weather Rev 133:1155–1174. doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1
    • (2005) Mon Weather Rev , vol.133 , pp. 1155-1174
    • Raftery, A.E.1    Gneiting, T.2    Balabdaoui, F.3    Polakowski, M.4
  • 47
    • 31544459775 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: a model intercomparison
    • Rahmstorf S, Crucifix M, Ganopolski A et al (2005) Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: a model intercomparison. Geophys Res Lett 32:L23605. doi:10.1029/2005GL023655
    • (2005) Geophys Res Lett , vol.32 , pp. L23605
    • Rahmstorf, S.1    Crucifix, M.2    Ganopolski, A.3
  • 48
    • 84928572353 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation
    • Rahmstorf S, Box JE, Feulner G et al (2015) Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nat Clim Change 5:475–480. doi:10.1038/nclimate2554
    • (2015) Nat Clim Change , vol.5 , pp. 475-480
    • Rahmstorf, S.1    Box, J.E.2    Feulner, G.3
  • 50
    • 84911962632 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning
    • Schleussner C-F, Levermann A, Meinshausen M (2014) Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning. Clim Change 127:579–586. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2
    • (2014) Clim Change , vol.127 , pp. 579-586
    • Schleussner, C.-F.1    Levermann, A.2    Meinshausen, M.3
  • 51
    • 31544443813 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations
    • Schmittner A, Latif M, Schneider B (2005) Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations. Geophys Res Lett 32:1–4. doi:10.1029/2005GL024368
    • (2005) Geophys Res Lett , vol.32 , pp. 1-4
    • Schmittner, A.1    Latif, M.2    Schneider, B.3
  • 52
    • 77950615356 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using tracer observations to reduce the uncertainty of ocean diapycnal mixing and climate–carbon cycle projections
    • Schmittner A, Urban NM, Keller K, Matthews D (2009) Using tracer observations to reduce the uncertainty of ocean diapycnal mixing and climate–carbon cycle projections. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 23:GB4009. doi:10.1029/2008GB003421
    • (2009) Glob Biogeochem Cycles , vol.23 , pp. GB4009
    • Schmittner, A.1    Urban, N.M.2    Keller, K.3    Matthews, D.4
  • 53
    • 84947348224 scopus 로고
    • Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau
    • Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389. doi:10.2307/2285891
    • (1968) J Am Stat Assoc , vol.63 , pp. 1379-1389
    • Sen, P.K.1
  • 54
    • 85047348005 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Accessed 9 Feb 2017
    • Sentman L (2016) ESMs CMIP5 FAQs. https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/esms-cmip5-faqs/. Accessed 9 Feb 2017
    • (2016) Esms CMIP5 Faqs
    • Sentman, L.1
  • 55
    • 84861799351 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multivariate probabilistic projections using imperfect climate models part I: outline of methodology
    • Sexton DMH, Murphy JM, Collins M, Webb MJ (2011) Multivariate probabilistic projections using imperfect climate models part I: outline of methodology. Clim Dyn 38:2513–2542. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1208-9
    • (2011) Clim Dyn , vol.38 , pp. 2513-2542
    • Sexton, D.M.H.1    Murphy, J.M.2    Collins, M.3    Webb, M.J.4
  • 56
    • 84893549099 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004–2012
    • Smeed DA, McCarthy GD, Cunningham SA et al (2014) Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004–2012. Ocean Sci 10:29–38. doi:10.5194/os-10-29-2014
    • (2014) Ocean Sci , vol.10 , pp. 29-38
    • Smeed, D.A.1    McCarthy, G.D.2    Cunningham, S.A.3
  • 57
    • 84869411467 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Past, present, and future changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
    • Srokosz M, Baringer M, Bryden H et al (2012) Past, present, and future changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:1663–1676. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00151.1
    • (2012) Bull Am Meteorol Soc , vol.93 , pp. 1663-1676
    • Srokosz, M.1    Baringer, M.2    Bryden, H.3
  • 58
    • 0030883493 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2 emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation
    • 2 emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation. Nature 388:862–865. doi:10.1038/42224
    • (1997) Nature , vol.388 , pp. 862-865
    • Stocker, T.F.1    Schmittner, A.2
  • 59
    • 0000248310 scopus 로고
    • Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow
    • Stommel H (1961) Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow. Tellus 13:224–230. doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1961.tb00079.x
    • (1961) Tellus , vol.13 , pp. 224-230
    • Stommel, H.1
  • 60
    • 84989959916 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of meltwater on high-latitude early last interglacial climate
    • Stone EJ, Capron E, Lunt DJ et al (2016) Impact of meltwater on high-latitude early last interglacial climate. Clim Past 12:1919–1932. doi:10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016
    • (2016) Clim Past , vol.12 , pp. 1919-1932
    • Stone, E.J.1    Capron, E.2    Lunt, D.J.3
  • 61
    • 33646449957 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Investigating the cause of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climage changes
    • Stouffer RJ, Yin J, Gregory JM et al (2006) Investigating the cause of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climage changes. J Clim 19:1365–1387. doi:10.1175/JCLI3689.1
    • (2006) J Clim , vol.19 , pp. 1365-1387
    • Stouffer, R.J.1    Yin, J.2    Gregory, J.M.3
  • 62
    • 84861403618 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic projections of agro-climate indices in North America
    • Terando A, Keller K, Easterling WE (2012) Probabilistic projections of agro-climate indices in North America. J Geophys Res Atmos. doi:10.1029/2012JD017436
    • (2012) J Geophys Res Atmos
    • Terando, A.1    Keller, K.2    Easterling, W.E.3
  • 63
    • 34247588601 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO
    • Timmermann A, Okumura Y, An S-I et al (2007) The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO. J Clim 20:4899–4919. doi:10.1175/JCLI4283.1
    • (2007) J Clim , vol.20 , pp. 4899-4919
    • Timmermann, A.1    Okumura, Y.2    An, S.-I.3
  • 64
    • 34247544251 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis of climate system properties using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
    • Tomassini L, Reichert P, Knutti R et al (2007) Robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis of climate system properties using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. J Clim 20:1239–1254. doi:10.1175/JCLI4064.1
    • (2007) J Clim , vol.20 , pp. 1239-1254
    • Tomassini, L.1    Reichert, P.2    Knutti, R.3
  • 65
    • 77957162118 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic hindcasts and projections of the coupled climate, carbon cycle and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation system: a Bayesian fusion of century-scale observations with a simple model
    • Urban NM, Keller K (2010) Probabilistic hindcasts and projections of the coupled climate, carbon cycle and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation system: a Bayesian fusion of century-scale observations with a simple model. Tellus A 62:737–750. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00471.x
    • (2010) Tellus A , vol.62 , pp. 737-750
    • Urban, N.M.1    Keller, K.2
  • 66
    • 0036315114 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation
    • Vellinga M, Wood RA (2002) Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Clim Change 54:251–267. doi:10.1023/A:1016168827653
    • (2002) Clim Change , vol.54 , pp. 251-267
    • Vellinga, M.1    Wood, R.A.2
  • 67
    • 84868325973 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: a model intercomparison
    • Weaver AJ, Sedláček J, Eby M et al (2012) Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: a model intercomparison. Geophys Res Lett 39:L20709. doi:10.1029/2012GL053763
    • (2012) Geophys Res Lett , vol.39 , pp. L20709
    • Weaver, A.J.1    Sedláček, J.2    Eby, M.3
  • 68
    • 84899091293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The origins of late-twentieth-century variations in the large-scale North Atlantic circulation
    • Yeager S, Danabasoglu G (2014) The origins of late-twentieth-century variations in the large-scale North Atlantic circulation. J Clim 27:3222–3247. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00125.1
    • (2014) J Clim , vol.27 , pp. 3222-3247
    • Yeager, S.1    Danabasoglu, G.2
  • 69
    • 84896697000 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linking Northern hemisphere blocking and storm track biases in the CMIP5 climate models
    • Zappa G, Masato G, Shaffrey L et al (2014) Linking Northern hemisphere blocking and storm track biases in the CMIP5 climate models. Geophys Res Lett 41:135–139. doi:10.1002/2013GL058480
    • (2014) Geophys Res Lett , vol.41 , pp. 135-139
    • Zappa, G.1    Masato, G.2    Shaffrey, L.3
  • 70
    • 34247195097 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change
    • Zickfeld K, Levermann A, Morgan MG et al (2007) Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change. Clim Change 82:235–265. doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9246-3
    • (2007) Clim Change , vol.82 , pp. 235-265
    • Zickfeld, K.1    Levermann, A.2    Morgan, M.G.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.