Madden—Julian Oscillation prediction and teleconnections in the S2S database

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 143, Issue 706, 2017, Pages 2210-2220

  Vitart, Frédéric ^a  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

MJO; sub seasonal prediction: teleconnections

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; FORECASTING;

HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION; LOWER STRATOSPHERE; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONS; SEASONAL PREDICTION; TELECONNECTION PATTERNS; TELECONNECTIONS; WEATHER RESEARCH; WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC;

CLIMATOLOGY;

CLIMATE PREDICTION; DATABASE; HINDCASTING; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; STRATOSPHERE; TELECONNECTION;

EUROPE; INDIAN OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (WEST);

EID: 85026888490     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: 1477870X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3079     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Bechtold P, Koehler M, Jung T, Doblas-Reyes P, Leutbecher M, Rodwell M, Vitart F. 2008. Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 1337–1351.
2. Cassou C. 2008. Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden—Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Nature 455: 523–527. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07286.
3. Chen T-C, Alpert JC. 1990. Systematic errors in the annual and intraseasonal variations of the planetary-scale divergent circulation in NMC medium-range forecasts. Mon. Weather Rev. 118: 2607–2623.
4. Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD, Matsui N, Allan RJ, Yin X, Gleason BE, Vose RS, Rutledge G, Bessemoulin P, Bronnimann S, Brunet M, Crouthamel RI, Grant AN, Groisman PY, Jones PD, Kruk M, Kruger AC, Marshall GJ, Maugeri M, Mok HY, Nordli O, Ross TF. 2011. The Twentieth Century reanalysis project. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137: 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776.
5. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, vandeBerg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette J-J, Park B-K, Peubey C, deRosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut J-N, Vitart F. 2011. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137: 553–597.
6. Ebita A, Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Moriya M, Kumabe R, Onogi K, Harada Y, Yasui S, Miyaoka K, Takahashi K, Kamahori H, Kobayashi C, Endo H, Soma M, Oikawa Y, Ishimizu T. 2011. The Japanese 55-year reanalysis JRA-55; an interim report. SOLA 7: 149–152. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.
7. Garfinkel CI, Feldstein SB, Waugh DW, Yoo C, Lee S. 2012. Observed connection between stratospheric sudden warmings and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett 39: L18807.
8. Gottschalk J, Wheeler M, Weickmann K, Vitart F, Savage N, Lin H, Hendon H, Waliser D, Sperber K, Prestrelo C, Nakagawa M, Flatau M, Higgins W. 2010. A framework for assessing operational model MJO forecasts: A project of the CLIVAR Madden—Julian Oscillation Working Group. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 91: 1247–1258.
9. Hendon HH, Liebmann B, Newman M, Glick J. 2000. Medium-range forecast errors associated with active episodes of the Madden—Julian Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev. 128: 69–86.
10. Hirons LC, Inness P, Vitart F, Bechtold P. 2013a. Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. PartI: The representation of the MJO. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 139: 1417–1426. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2060.
11. Hirons LC, Inness P, Vitart F, Bechtold P. 2013b. Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. PartII: The application of process-based diagnostics. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 139: 1427–1444. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2059.
12. Jiang X, Waliser DE, Wheeler MC, Jones C, Lee M-I, Schubert SD. 2008. Assessing the skill of an all-season statistical forecast model for the Madden—Julian Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev. 36: 1940–1956.
13. Jones C, Waliser DE, Schemm JK, Lau KM. 2000. Prediction skill of the Madden—Julian Oscillation in dynamical extended-range forecasts. Clim. Dyn. 16: 273–289.
14. Jones C, Carvalho LMV, Higgins RW, Waliser DE, Schemm JK. 2004. A statistical forecast model of tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies. J. Clim. 17: 2078–2095.
15. Jung T, Miller M, Palmer T. 2010. Diagnosing the origin of extended-range forecast errors. Mon. Weather Rev. 138: 2434–2446.
16. Kang I-S, Kim H-M. 2010. Assessment of MJO predictability for boreal winter with various statistical and dynamical models. J. Clim. 23: 2368–2378.
17. Kim H-M, Kim D, Vitart F, Toma V, Kug J-S, Webster P. 2016. MJO propagation across the maritime continent in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. J. Clim. 29: 3973–3988. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1.
18. Lin H, Brunet G. 2009. The influence of the Madden—Julian Oscillation on Canadian wintertime surface air temperature. Mon. Weather Rev. 137: 2250–2262.
19. Lin H, Brunet G, Fontecilla J. 2010. Impact of the Madden—Julian Oscillation on the intraseasonal forecast skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37: L19803. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044315.
20. Lo F, Hendon HH. 2000. Empirical extended-range prediction of the Madden—Julian Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev. 128: 2528–2543.
21. Maharaj EA, Wheeler MC. 2005. Forecasting an index of the Madden—Julian Oscillation. Int. J. Climatol. 25: 1611–1618.
22. Mo KC. 2001. Adaptive filtering and prediction of intraseasonal oscillations. Mon. Weather Rev. 129: 802–817.
23. Neena JM, Lee JY, Waliser D, Wang B, Jiang X. 2014. Predictability of the Madden—Julian Oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE). J. Clim. 27: 4531–4543. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00624.1.
24. O'Reilly CH, Minobe S, Kuwano-Yoshida A, Woollings T. 2017. The Gulf Stream influence on wintertime North Atlantic jet variability. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 143: 173–183. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2907.
25. Rashid HA, Hendon HH, Wheeler MC, Alves O. 2010. Predictability of the Madden—Julian Oscillation in the POAMA dynamical seasonal prediction system. Clim. Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0754-x.
26. Vitart F. 2014. Evolution of ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast skill scores. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 140: 1889–1899.
27. Vitart F, Molteni F. 2010. Simulation of the Madden—Julian Oscillation and its teleconnections in the ECMWF forecast system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136: 842–855. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.623.
28. Vitart F, Robertson DA. 2012. Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project: Bridging the gap between weather and climate. WMO Bull. 61: 23–28.
29. Vitart F, Ardilouze C, Bonet A, Brookshaw A, Chen M, Codorean C, Déqué M, Ferranti L, Fucile E, Fuentes M, Hendon H, Hodgson J, Kang H-S, Kumar A, Lin H, Liu G, Liu X, Malguzzi P, Mallas I, Manoussakis M, Mastrangelo D, MacLachlan C, McLean P, Minami A, Mladek R, Nakazawa T, Najm S, Nie Y, Rixen M, Robertson AW, Ruti P, Sun C, Takaya Y, Tolstykh M, Venuti F, Waliser D, Woolnough S, Wu T, Won D-J, Xiao H, Zaripov R, Zhang L. 2017. The Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project database. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 98: 163–176. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.
30. Waliser DE. 2011. Predictability and forecasting. In Intra-seasonal Variability of the Atmosphere – Ocean Climate System (2nd ed.), Lau WKM, Waliser DE. (eds.): 433–468. Springer: Berlin.
31. Waliser DE, Jones C, Schemm JK, Graham NE. 1999. A statistical extended-range tropical forecast model based on the slow evolution of the Madden—Julian Oscillation. J. Clim. 12: 1918–1939.
32. Wang W, Hung M-P, Weaver SJ, Kumar A, Fu X. 2014. MJO prediction in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2. Clim. Dyn. 42: 2509–2520. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1806-9.
33. Weaver S, Wang W, Chen M, Kumar A. 2011. Representation of MJO variability in the NCEP climate forecast system. J. Clim. 24: 4676–4694.
34. Wheeler MC, Hendon HH. 2004. An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Weather Rev. 132: 1917–1932.
35. Wheeler MC, Weickmann K. 2001. Real-time monitoring and prediction of modes of coherent synoptic to intraseasonal tropical variability. Mon. Weather Rev. 129: 2677–2694.