Opportunities and challenges in modeling emerging infectious diseases

Science

Volumn 357, Issue 6347, 2017, Pages 149-152

  Metcalf, C Jessica E ^a   Lessler, Justin ^b  

^a PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b JOHNS HOPKINS BLOOMBERG SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DATA ASSIMILATION; DRUG RESISTANCE; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; INNOVATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PATHOGEN; PUBLIC HEALTH; VIRUS;

DISEASE MODEL; EBOLA HEMORRHAGIC FEVER; EBOLAVIRUS; EPIDEMIC; FORECASTING; HUMAN; INFLUENZA A VIRUS (H1N1); MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MIDDLE EAST RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; MIDDLE EAST RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS; NONHUMAN; PANDEMIC; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PUBLIC HEALTH; PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE; REVIEW; VIRUS INFECTION; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; ZIKA FEVER; ZIKA VIRUS; ANIMAL; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE; THEORETICAL MODEL; VIROLOGY;

ANIMALS; COMMUNICABLE DISEASES, EMERGING; HUMANS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE;

EID: 85025079164     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: 10959203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.aam8335     Document Type: Review

References (44)

1. M. I. Meltzer et al., MMWR Surveill. Summ. 63, 1–14 (2014).
2. N. M. Ferguson et al., Science 353, 353–354 (2016).
3. C. Fraser et al., Science 324, 1557–1561 (2009).
4. S. Cauchemez et al., Lancet Infect. Dis. 14, 50–56 (2014).
5. C. Fraser, S. Riley, R. M. Anderson, N. M. Ferguson, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 101, 6146–6151 (2004).
6. S. Cauchemez et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 113, 9081–9086 (2016).
7. J. Agua-Agum et al., PLOS Med. 13, e1002170 (2016).
8. J. Lessler et al., Science 353, aaf8160 (2016).
9. R. M. May, R. M. Anderson, Nature 326, 137–142 (1987).
10. R. Breban, J. Riou, A. Fontanet, Lancet 382, 694–699 (2013).
11. Y. Yang et al., Science 326, 729–733 (2009).
12. A. C. Ghani et al., Am. J. Epidemiol. 162, 479–486 (2005).
13. A. J. Kucharski, W. J. Edmunds, Lancet 384, 1260 (2014).
14. J. Lessler et al., Am. J. Epidemiol. 183, 657–663 (2016).
15. C. M. Peak, L. M. Childs, Y. H. Grad, C. O. Buckee, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 114, 4023–4028 (2017).
16. A. Pandey et al., Science 346, 991–995 (2014).
17. J. M. Read, P. J. Diggle, J. Chirombo, T. Solomon, M. Baylis, Lancet 385, 23–24 (2015).
18. S. Funk, G. M. Knight, V. A. A. Jansen, Nature 515, 492 (2014).
19. T. Alex Perkins, A. S. Siraj, C. W. Ruktanonchai, M. U. G. Kraemer, A. J. Tatem, Nat. Microbiol. 1, 16126 (2016).
20. J. P. Messina et al., eLife 5, e15272 (2016).
21. N. M. Ferguson et al., Nature 437, 209–214 (2005).
22. B. Aylward et al., N. Engl. J. Med. 371, 1481–1495 (2014).
23. N. M. Ferguson et al., Nature 442, 448–452 (2006).
24. I. M. Longini Jr. et al., Science 309, 1083–1087 (2005).
25. A. Camacho et al., Epidemics 9, 70–78 (2014).
26. E. Shacham, E. J. Nelson, D. F. Hoft, M. Schootman, A. Garza, Am. J. Public Health 107, 724–731 (2017).
27. I. I. Bogoch et al., Lancet 387, 335–336 (2016).
28. C. A. Manore, R. S. Ostfeld, F. B. Agusto, H. Gaff, S. L. LaDeau, PLOS Negl. Trop. Dis. 11, e0005255 (2017).
29. M. Stobbe, CDC’s overblown estimate of Ebola outbreak draws criticism. The Seattle Times (2015); www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/cdcs-overblown-estimate-of-ebola-outbreak-draws-criticism.
30. Swine flu could infect half of U.S., panel estimates. The Washington Post (2009); www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/24/AR2009082401733.html).
31. N. R. Faria et al., Nature 10.1038/nature22401 (2017).
32. G. Dudas et al., Nature 544, 309–315 (2017).
33. A. J. Tatem, Sci. Data 4, 170004 (2017).
34. L. Mao, X. Wu, Z. Huang, A. J. Tatem, J. Transp. Geogr. 48, 52–60 (2015).
35. A. Wesolowski et al., Sci. Rep. 4, 5678 (2014).
36. W. Yang, A. Karspeck, J. Shaman, PLOS Comput. Biol. 10, e1003583 (2014).
37. S. Cauchemez et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 108, 2825–2830 (2011).
38. A. Camacho et al., Vaccine 35, 544–551 (2017).
39. K. M. Gostic, M. Ambrose, M. Worobey, J. O. Lloyd-Smith, Science 354, 722–726 (2016).
40. W. Dejnirattisai et al., Nat. Immunol. 17, 1102–1108 (2016).
41. C. J. E. Metcalf et al., Lancet 388, 728–730 (2016).
42. B. Longdon, M. A. Brockhurst, C. A. Russell, J. J. Welch, F. M. Jiggins, PLOS Pathog. 10, e1004395 (2014).
43. R. Antia, R. R. Regoes, J. C. Koella, C. T. Bergstrom, Nature 426, 658–661 (2003).
44. K. M. Pepin, S. Lass, J. R. C. Pulliam, A. F. Read, J. O. Lloyd-Smith, Nat. Rev. Microbiol. 8, 802–813 (2010).