Comparing nonpharmaceutical interventions for containing emerging epidemics

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 114, Issue 15, 2017, Pages 4023-4028

  Peak, Corey M ^a   Childs, Lauren M ^a,c   Grad, Yonatan H ^a,b   Buckee, Caroline O ^a  

^a HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^b BRIGHAM AND WOMEN S HOSPITAL   (United States)

^c VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE AND STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Active symptom monitoring; Contact tracing; Epidemiology; Infectious disease dynamics; Quarantine

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; ASYMPTOMATIC INFECTION; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; CONTACT EXAMINATION; DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EBOLA HEMORRHAGIC FEVER; EPIDEMIC; HEPATITIS A; HUMAN; INFLUENZA A; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MIDDLE EAST RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; PERTUSSIS; PRIORITY JOURNAL; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; QUARANTINE; SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; SMALLPOX; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE; CORONAVIRUS INFECTION; INFLUENZA; THEORETICAL MODEL;

COMMUNICABLE DISEASES, EMERGING; CORONAVIRUS INFECTIONS; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; HEMORRHAGIC FEVER, EBOLA; HEPATITIS A; HUMANS; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MODELS, THEORETICAL; QUARANTINE; SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; SMALLPOX;

EID: 85025077243     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1616438114     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. McMichael AJ (2004) Environmental and social influences on emerging infectious diseases: Past, present and future. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 359:1049–1058.
2. Morens DM, Folkers GK, Fauci AS (2004) The challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. Nature 430:242–249.
3. Jones KE, et al. (2008) Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature 451:990–993.
4. Barbera J, et al. (2001) Large-scale quarantine following biological terrorism in the United States: Scientific examination, logistic and legal limits, and possible consequences. JAMA 286:2711–2717.
5. American Civil Liberties Union, Yale Global Health Justice Partnership (2015) Fear, Politics, and Ebola. How Quarantines Hurt the Fight Against Ebola and Violate the Constitution. Available at https://www.aclu.org/sites/default/files/field_document/aclu-ebolareport.pdf. Accessed March 10, 2017.
6. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) (2014) Ebola: Quarantine Can Undermine Efforts to Curb Epidemic. Available at www.msf.org/article/ebola-quarantine-can-undermineefforts-curb-epidemic. Accessed March 10, 2017.
7. Drazen JM, et al. (2014) Ebola and quarantine. N Engl J Med 371:2029–2030.
8. Day T, Park A, Madras N, Gumel A, Wu J (2006) When is quarantine a useful control strategy for emerging infectious diseases? Am J Epidemiol 163:479–485.
9. Gates B (2015) The next epidemic—lessons from Ebola. N Engl J Med 372:1381–1384.
10. Heymann DL, ed (2014) Control of Communicable Diseases Manual (APHA, Washington, DC), 20th Ed.
11. World Health Organization (2005) . International Health Regulations (World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland), 2nd Ed.
12. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2014) Legal Authorities for Isolation and Quarantine. Available at https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/legal-authorities-isolation-quarantine.pdf. Accessed March 10, 2017.
13. Rothstein MA, et al. (2003) Quarantine and Isolation: Lessons Learned from SARS. Available at www.iaclea.org/members/pdfs/SARS%20REPORT.Rothstein.pdf. Accessed March 10, 2017.
14. Nyenswah T, et al. (2015) Controlling the last known cluster of Ebola virus disease—Liberia, January–February 2015. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 64:500–504.
15. CDC (2014) Interim U.S. Guidance for Monitoring and Movement of Persons with Potential Ebola Virus Exposure. Available at https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/exposure/monitoring-and-movement-of-persons-with-exposure.html. Accessed October 3, 2016.
16. Chung WM, et al. (2015) Active tracing and monitoring of contacts associated with the first cluster of ebola in the United States. Ann Intern Med 163:164–173.
17. Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM (2004) Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101:6146–6151.
18. Lloyd-Smith JO, Schreiber SJ, Kopp PE, Getz WM (2005) Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence. Nature 438:355–359.
19. Gostic KM, Kucharski AJ, Lloyd-Smith JO (2015) Effectiveness of traveller screening for emerging pathogens is shaped by epidemiology and natural history of infection. eLife 4:1–16.
20. WHO Ebola Response Team (2014) Ebola virus disease in West Africa—The first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. N Engl J Med 371:1481–1495.
21. Vink MA, Bootsma MCJ, Wallinga J (2014) Serial intervals of respiratory infectious diseases: A systematic review and analysis. Am J Epidemiol 180:865–875.
22. Pickles W (1930) Epidemic catarrhal jaundice: An outbreak in Yorkshire. Br Med J 1: 944–946.
23. Biggerstaff M, et al. (2014) Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: A systematic review of the literature. BMC Infect Dis 14:480.
24. Lessler J, et al. (2009) Incubation periods of acute respiratory viral infections: A systematic review. Lancet Infect Dis 9:921–300.
25. Cauchemez S, et al. (2014) Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: Quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility. Lancet Infect Dis 14:50–56.
26. Assiri A, et al. (2013) Hospital outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. N Engl J Med 369:407–416.
27. te Beest DE, et al. (2014) Estimation of the serial interval of pertussis in Dutch households. Epidemics 7:1–6.
28. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2015) Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine Preventable Diseases, eds Hamborsky J, Kroger A, Wolfe C (Public Health Foundation, Washington, DC), 13th Ed.
29. Lipsitch M, et al. (2003) Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science 300:1966–1970.
30. Nishiura H, Brockmann SO, Eichner M (2008) Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox. Theor Biol Med Model 5:20.
31. Glasser JW, Hupert N, McCauley MM, Hatchett R (2011) Modeling and public health emergency responses: Lessons from SARS. Epidemics 3:32–37.
32. Cetron M, Maloney S, Koppaka R, Simone P (2004) Isolation and quarantine: Containment strategies for SARS 2003. Institute of Medicine (US) Forum on Microbial Threats, Learning from SARS: Preparing for the Next Disease Outbreak: Workshop Summary, eds Knobler S, Mahmoud A, Lemon S, et al. (National Academies Press, Washington, DC).
33. Lessler J, Edmunds WJ, Halloran ME, Hollingsworth TD, Lloyd AL (2015) Seven challenges for model-driven data collection in experimental and observational studies. Epidemics 10:78–82.
34. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2014) CDC Methods for Implementing and Managing Contact Tracing for Ebola Virus Disease in Less-Affected Countries. Available at https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/26492. Accessed March 10, 2017.
35. Müller J, Kretzschmar M, Dietz K (2000) Contact tracing in stochastic and deterministic epidemic models. Math Biosci 164:39–64.
36. Fine P, Eames K, Heymann DL (2011) “Herd immunity”: A rough guide. Clin Infect Dis 52:911–916.
37. Klinkenberg D, Fraser C, Heesterbeek H (2006) The effectiveness of contact tracing in emerging epidemics. PLoS One 1:e12.
38. Lloyd-Smith JO, Galvani AP, Getz WM (2003) Curtailing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome within a community and its hospital. Proc Biol Sci 270: 1979–1989.
39. Richardson M, Elliman D, Maguire H, Simpson J, Nicoll A (2001) Evidence base of incubation periods, periods of infectiousness and exclusion policies for the control of communicable diseases in schools and preschools. Pediatr Infect Dis J 20:380–391.
40. Andrieu C, Doucet A, Singh SS, Tadic VB (2004) Particle methods for change detection, system identification, and control. Proc IEEE 92:423–438.
41. Doucet A, de Freitas N, Gordon N (2001) An introduction to sequential Monte Carlo methods. Sequential Monte Carlo Methods Practice (Springer, New York), pp 3–14.
42. Djuric PM, Miguez J (2010) Assessment of nonlinear dynamic models by Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics. IEEE Trans Signal Process 58:5069–5079.
43. Marsaglia G, Tsang WW, Wang J (2003) Evaluating Kolmogorov’s distribution. J Stat Softw 8:1–4.
44. WHO; CDC (2015) Implementation and Management of Contact Tracing for Ebola Virus Disease. Available at apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/185258/1/ WHO_EVD_Guidance_Contact_15.1_eng.pdf?ua=1. Accessed March 10, 2017.
45. Roush SW, Baldy LM, eds (2008) Manual for the Surveillance of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases. Available at https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/surv-manual/index.html. Accessed March 10, 2017.
46. World Health Organization (2016) Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis. Available at apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/246177/1/WHO-HIV-2016.06-eng. pdf?ua=1. Accessed March 10, 2017.
47. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2015) Interim Guidance on Follow-up of Close Contacts of Persons Infected with Novel Influenza A Viruses Associated with Severe Human Disease and on the Use of Antiviral Medications for Chemoprophylaxis. Available at https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/novel-av-chemoprophylaxis-guidance.htm. Accessed March 10, 2017.
48. World Health Organization (2009) Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response. Available at apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/44123/1/9789241547680_eng.pdf. Accessed March 10, 2017.
49. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2016) Interim U.S. Guidance for Monitoring and Movement of Persons with Potential Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) Exposure. Available at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/hcp/monitoring-movement-guidance.pdf. Accessed March 10, 2017.
50. World Health Organization (2013) Rapid Advice Note on Home Care for Patients with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-Cov) Infection Presenting with Mild Symptoms and Management of Contacts. Available at www.who.int/csr/disease/coronavirus_infections/MERS_home_care.pdf?ua=1. Accessed March 10, 2017.
51. World Health Organization (2008) Managing Pertussis Outbreaks During Humanitarian Emergencies. Available at apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/69755/1/WHO_ HSE_EPR_DCE_2008.2_eng.pdf. Accessed March 10, 2017.
52. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2004) Supplement D: Community Containment Measures, Including Non-Hospital Isolation and Quarantine. Public Health Guidance for Community-Level Preparedness and Response to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Version 2. Available at https://www.cdc.gov/sars/guidance/d-quarantine/management.pdf. Accessed March 10, 2017.
53. World Health Organization (2004) WHO Guidelines for the Global Surveillance of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). Available at www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/WHO_CDS_CSR_ARO_2004_1.pdf?ua=1. Accessed March 10, 2017.
54. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2017) Epidemiological Investigation. Available at https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/bioterrorism-response-planning/publichealth/epidemiological-investigation.html. Accessed March 10, 2017.
55. World Health Organization (2016) Frequently Asked Questions and Answers on Smallpox. Available at www.who.int/csr/disease/smallpox/faq/en/. Accessed March 10, 2017.