메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 372, Issue 1725, 2017, Pages

Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of rift valley fever disease across Africa

Author keywords

Africa; Bayesian spatial model; Climatic oscillations; Integrated Laplace Approximations; Rift valley fever; Risk map

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE OSCILLATION; DISEASE INCIDENCE; DISEASE VECTOR; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; GLOBAL CLIMATE; HEALTH RISK; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; INTEGRATED APPROACH; LAND USE CHANGE; LIVESTOCK; NUMERICAL MODEL; POPULATION DENSITY; RESOURCE USE; SEASONAL VARIATION; SPATIAL VARIATION; VIRAL DISEASE;

EID: 85020437313     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0165     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (46)

References (56)
  • 1
    • 84884742016 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Emerging infectious diseases: Threats to human health and global stability
    • Morens DM, Fauci AS. 2013 Emerging infectious diseases: threats to human health and global stability. PLoS Pathog. 9, e1003467. (doi: 10.1371/ journal.ppat.1003467)
    • (2013) Plos Pathog. , vol.9
    • Morens, D.M.1    Fauci, A.S.2
  • 2
    • 65349181925 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rescuing the bottom billion through control of neglected tropical diseases
    • Hotez PJ, Fenwick A, Savioli L, Molyneux DH. 2009 Rescuing the bottom billion through control of neglected tropical diseases. Lancet 373, 1570-1575. (doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736 (09) 60233-6)
    • (2009) Lancet , vol.373 , pp. 1570-1575
    • Hotez, P.J.1    Fenwick, A.2    Savioli, L.3    Molyneux, D.H.4
  • 3
    • 84974738103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Environmental-mechanistic modelling of the impact of global change on human zoonotic disease emergence: A case study of Lassa fever
    • Redding DW, Moses LM, Cunningham AA, Wood J, Jones KE. 2016 Environmental-mechanistic modelling of the impact of global change on human zoonotic disease emergence: a case study of Lassa fever. Methods Ecol. Evol. 7, 646–655. (doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12549)
    • (2016) Methods Ecol. Evol. , vol.7 , pp. 646-655
    • Redding, D.W.1    Moses, L.M.2    Cunningham, A.A.3    Wood, J.4    Jones, K.E.5
  • 6
    • 27944446350 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Maximum entropy modelling of species geographic distribution
    • Phillips S, Anderson RP, Schapire R. 2006 Maximum entropy modelling of species geographic distribution. Ecol. Modell. 190, 231–259. (doi: 10. 1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026)
    • (2006) Ecol. Modell. , vol.190 , pp. 231-259
    • Phillips, S.1    Erson, R.P.2    Schapire, R.3
  • 7
    • 33645917058 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data
    • Elith J et al. 2006 Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29, 129–151. (doi: 10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x)
    • (2006) Ecography , vol.29 , pp. 129-151
    • Elith, J.1
  • 8
    • 0347991897 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecologic and geographic distribution of filovirus disease
    • Peterson AT, Bauer JT, Mills JN. 2004 Ecologic and geographic distribution of filovirus disease. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 10, 40–47. (doi: 10.3201/eid1001.030125)
    • (2004) Emerg. Infect. Dis. , vol.10 , pp. 40-47
    • Peterson, A.T.1    Bauer, J.T.2    Mills, J.N.3
  • 11
    • 65649104768 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Risk maps of Lassa fever in West Africa
    • Fichet-Calvet E, Rogers DJ. 2009 Risk maps of Lassa fever in West Africa. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 3, e388. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000388)
    • (2009) Plos Negl. Trop. Dis. , vol.3
    • Fichet-Calvet, E.1    Rogers, D.J.2
  • 12
    • 80052584942 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatio-temporal disease mapping using INLA
    • Schrodle B, Held L. 2011 Spatio-temporal disease mapping using INLA. Environmetrics 22, 725–734. (doi: 10.1002/env.1065)
    • (2011) Environmetrics , vol.22 , pp. 725-734
    • Schrodle, B.1    Held, L.2
  • 13
    • 62849120031 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations
    • Rue H, Martino S, Chopin N. 2009 Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 71, 319–392. (doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x)
    • (2009) J. R. Stat. Soc. B , vol.71 , pp. 319-392
    • Rue, H.1    Martino, S.2    Chopin, N.3
  • 16
    • 0037292883 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rift Valley fever: An uninvited zoonosis in the Arabian peninsula
    • Balkhy HH, Memish ZA. 2003 Rift Valley fever: an uninvited zoonosis in the Arabian peninsula. Int. J. Antimicrob. Agents 21, 153–157. (doi: 10. 1016/S0924-8579 (02) 00295-9)
    • (2003) Int. J. Antimicrob. Agents , vol.21 , pp. 153-157
    • Balkhy, H.H.1    Memish, Z.A.2
  • 17
    • 84897147048 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The risk of Rift Valley fever virus introduction and establishment in the United States and European Union
    • Rolin AI, Berrang-Ford L, Kulkarni MA. 2013 The risk of Rift Valley fever virus introduction and establishment in the United States and European Union. Emerg. Microb. Infect. 2, e81. (doi: 10.1038/emi.2013.81)
    • (2013) Emerg. Microb. Infect. , vol.2
    • Rolin, A.I.1    Berrang-Ford, L.2    Kulkarni, M.A.3
  • 19
    • 0033575369 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate and satellite indicators to forecast Rift Valley fever epidemics in Kenya
    • Linthicum KJ, Anyamba A, Tucker CJ, Kelley PW, Myers MF, Peters CJ. 1999 Climate and satellite indicators to forecast Rift Valley fever epidemics in Kenya. Science 285, 397–400. (doi: 10.1126/science. 285.5426.397)
    • (1999) Science , vol.285 , pp. 397-400
    • Linthicum, K.J.1    Anyamba, A.2    Tucker, C.J.3    Kelley, P.W.4    Myers, M.F.5    Peters, C.J.6
  • 20
    • 84922248759 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of Rift Valley fever virus
    • Xiao Y, Beier JC, Cantrell RS, Cosner C, DeAngelis DL, Ruan S. 2015 Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of Rift Valley fever virus. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 9, e3388. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003388)
    • (2015) Plos Negl. Trop. Dis. , vol.9
    • Xiao, Y.1    Beier, J.C.2    Cantrell, R.S.3    Cosner, C.4    Deangelis, D.L.5    Ruan, S.6
  • 23
    • 84991822551 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive factors and risk mapping for Rift Valley fever epidemics in Kenya
    • Munyua PM et al. 2016 Predictive factors and risk mapping for Rift Valley fever epidemics in Kenya. PLoS ONE 11, e0144570. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pone. 0144570)
    • (2016) Plos ONE , vol.11
    • Munyua, P.M.1
  • 26
    • 58949090670 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak
    • Anyamba A et al. 2009 Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 955–959. (doi: 10.1073/pnas.0806490106)
    • (2009) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA , vol.106 , pp. 955-959
    • Anyamba, A.1
  • 27
    • 84957715176 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Space imaging and prevention of infectious disease: Rift Valley fever
    • R Laxminarayan, MK Macauley, Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer Science and Business Media
    • Hartley DM. 2012 Space imaging and prevention of infectious disease: Rift Valley fever. In The value of information: methodological frontiers and new applications in environment and health (eds R Laxminarayan, MK Macauley), pp. 231–255. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer Science and Business Media.
    • (2012) The Value of Information: Methodological Frontiers and New Applications in Environment and Health , pp. 231-255
    • Hartley, D.M.1
  • 29
    • 33845725160 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Application of knowledge-driven spatial modelling approaches and uncertainty management to a study of Rift Valley fever in Africa
    • Clements AC, Pfeiffer DU, Martin V. 2006 Application of knowledge-driven spatial modelling approaches and uncertainty management to a study of Rift Valley fever in Africa. Int. J. Health Geogr. 5, 1–12. (doi: 10.1186/1476-072X-5-57)
    • (2006) Int. J. Health Geogr , vol.5 , pp. 1-12
    • Clements, A.C.1    Pfeiffer, D.U.2    Martin, V.3
  • 30
    • 0000943119 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The relationship of the El Nino-Southern oscillation to African rainfall
    • Nicholson SE, Kim J. 1997 The relationship of the El Nino-Southern oscillation to African rainfall. Int. J. Climatol. 17, 117–135. (doi: 10.1002/ (SICI) 1097-0088 (199702) 17: 2, 117:: AID-JOC84.3. 0.CO; 2-O)
    • (1997) Int. J. Climatol , vol.17 , pp. 117-135
    • Nicholson, S.E.1    Kim, J.2
  • 31
    • 0025482409 scopus 로고
    • Temperature-dependent development and survival rates of Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae)
    • Rueda LM, Patel KJ, Axtell RC, Stinner RE. 1990 Temperature-dependent development and survival rates of Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). J. Med. Entomol. 27, 892. (doi: 10.1093/jmedent/27.5.892)
    • (1990) J. Med. Entomol , vol.27
    • Rueda, L.M.1    Patel, K.J.2    Axtell, R.C.3    Stinner, R.E.4
  • 32
    • 29544443445 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas
    • Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A. 2005 Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 1965–1978. (doi: 10.1002/joc.1276)
    • (2005) Int. J. Climatol , vol.25 , pp. 1965-1978
    • Hijmans, R.J.1    Cameron, S.E.2    Parra, J.L.3    Jones, P.G.4    Jarvis, A.5
  • 33
    • 84864763636 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dartmouth Flood Observatory, University of Colorado
    • Brakenridge GR. 2010 Global active archive of large flood events. Dartmouth Flood Observatory, University of Colorado. http://floodobservatory. colorado.edu/Archives/index.html.
    • (2010) Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events
    • Brakenridge, G.R.1
  • 34
    • 84902203217 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mapping the global distribution of livestock
    • Robinson TP et al. 2014 Mapping the global distribution of livestock. PLoS ONE 9, e96084. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0096084)
    • (2014) Plos ONE , vol.9
    • Robinson, T.P.1
  • 36
    • 84974676020 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Washington, DC, and University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN: International Food Policy Research Institute
    • HarvestChoice. 2014 Crop production: SPAM. Washington, DC, and University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN: International Food Policy Research Institute.
    • (2014) Crop Production: SPAM
  • 38
    • 70350041108 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: Algorithm refinements and characterisation of new datasets. Remote Sens
    • Friedl MA, Sulla-Menashe D, Tan B, Schneider A, Ramankutty N, Sibley A, Huang X. 2010 MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: algorithm refinements and characterisation of new datasets. Remote Sens. Environ. 114, 168–182. (doi: 10.1016/ j.rse.2009.08.016)
    • (2010) Environ , vol.114 , pp. 168-182
    • Friedl, M.A.1    Sulla-Menashe, D.2    Tan, B.3    Schneider, A.4    Ramankutty, N.5    Sibley, A.6    Huang, X.7
  • 39
    • 84938613517 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mapping soil properties of Africa at 250 m resolution: Random forests significantly improve current predictions
    • Hengl T et al. 2015 Mapping soil properties of Africa at 250 m resolution: random forests significantly improve current predictions. PLoS ONE 10, e0125814. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0125814)
    • (2015) Plos ONE , vol.10
    • Hengl, T.1
  • 41
    • 85020475068 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global Biodiversity Information Facility. Buffalo location data, 2013. http://www.gbif.org/.
    • (2013) Buffalo Location Data
  • 42
    • 80053285993 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Raster: Geographic analysis and modeling with raster data
    • Hijmans RJ, van Etten J. 2012 Raster: geographic analysis and modeling with raster data. R package version 20–12.
    • (2012) R Package Version , pp. 12-20
    • Hijmans, R.J.1    Van Etten, J.2
  • 43
    • 79961050814 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An explicit link between Gaussian fields and Gaussian Markov random fields: The stochastic partial differential equation approach
    • Lindgren F, Rue H, Lindström J. 2011 An explicit link between Gaussian fields and Gaussian Markov random fields: the stochastic partial differential equation approach. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 73, 423–498. (doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9868.2011.00777.x)
    • (2011) J. R. Stat. Soc. B , vol.73 , pp. 423-498
    • Lindgren, F.1    Rue, H.2    Lindström, J.3
  • 44
    • 84916213666 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models. Stat
    • Gelman A, Hwang J, Vehtari A. 2014 Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models. Stat. Comput. 24, 997–1016. (doi: 10.1007/s11222-013-9416-2)
    • (2014) Comput , vol.24 , pp. 997-1016
    • Gelman, A.1    Hwang, J.2    Vehtari, A.3
  • 45
  • 46
    • 85020481475 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data
    • Redding DW, Lucas T, Blackburn T, Jones KE. 2017 Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data. bioRxiv. (doi: 10.1101/105742)
    • (2017) Biorxiv
    • Redding, D.W.1    Lucas, T.2    Blackburn, T.3    Jones, K.E.4
  • 47
    • 84953235973 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fast and flexible Bayesian species distribution modelling using Gaussian processes
    • Golding N, Purse BV. 2016 Fast and flexible Bayesian species distribution modelling using Gaussian processes. Methods Ecol. Evol. 7, 598–608. (doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12523)
    • (2016) Methods Ecol. Evol. , vol.7 , pp. 598-608
    • Golding, N.1    Purse, B.V.2
  • 48
    • 84875271012 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hierarchical analysis of spatially autocorrelated ecological data using integrated nested Laplace approximation
    • Beguin J, Martino S, Rue H, Cumming SG. 2012 Hierarchical analysis of spatially autocorrelated ecological data using integrated nested Laplace approximation. Methods Ecol. Evol. 3, 921–929. (doi: 10.1111/j.2041-210X.2012.00211.x)
    • (2012) Methods Ecol. Evol. , vol.3 , pp. 921-929
    • Beguin, J.1    Martino, S.2    Rue, H.3    Cumming, S.G.4
  • 49
    • 79955479019 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Posterior and crossvalidatory predictive checks: A comparison of MCMC and INLA
    • T Kneib, G Tutz, Berlin, Germany: Springer
    • Held L, Schrödle B, Rue H. 2010 Posterior and crossvalidatory predictive checks: a comparison of MCMC and INLA. In Statistical modelling and regression structures (eds T Kneib, G Tutz), pp. 91–110. Berlin, Germany: Springer.
    • (2010) Statistical Modelling and Regression Structures , pp. 91-110
    • Held, L.1    Schrödle, B.2    Rue, H.3
  • 50
    • 84887610212 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial and spatio-temporal models with R-INLA. Spat
    • Blangiardo M, Cameletti M, Baio G, Rue H. 2013 Spatial and spatio-temporal models with R-INLA. Spat. Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 7, 39–55. (doi: 10. 1016/j.sste.2013.07.003)
    • (2013) Spatiotemporal Epidemiol , vol.7 , pp. 39-55
    • Blangiardo, M.1    Cameletti, M.2    Baio, G.3    Rue, H.4
  • 52
    • 84883516805 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Towards a better understanding of Rift Valley fever epidemiology in the south-west of the Indian Ocean
    • Balenghien T et al. 2013 Towards a better understanding of Rift Valley fever epidemiology in the south-west of the Indian Ocean. Vet. Res. 44, 2–10. (doi: 10.1186/1297-9716-44-78)
    • (2013) Vet. Res. , vol.44 , pp. 2-10
    • Balenghien, T.1
  • 54
    • 84896815971 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Increasing frequency of extreme El Nino events due to greenhouse warming
    • Cai W et al. 2014 Increasing frequency of extreme El Nino events due to greenhouse warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 111–116. (doi: 10.1038/nclimate2100)
    • (2014) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.4 , pp. 111-116
    • Cai, W.1
  • 55
    • 0003926535 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Washington, DC: World Bank
    • World Bank. 2014 World development indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank.
    • (2014) World Development Indicators
  • 56
    • 34548434686 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Rift Valley fever atlas for Africa. Prev. Vet
    • Clements AC, Pfeiffer DU, Martin V, Otte MJ. 2007 A Rift Valley fever atlas for Africa. Prev. Vet. Med. 82, 72–82. (doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.05.006)
    • (2007) Med , vol.82 , pp. 72-82
    • Clements, A.C.1    Pfeiffer, D.U.2    Martin, V.3    Otte, M.J.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.