Economic forecasting

Economic Forecasting

Volumn , Issue , 2005, Pages 1-315

  Carnot, Nicolas ^a   Koen, Vincent ^b   Tissot, Bruno ^c  

^a Ministry of Finance   (France)

^b OECD   (France)

^c BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 85015878450     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1057/9780230005815     Document Type: Book

References (264)

1. Akritidis L. (2002) Accuracy Assessment of National Accounts Statistics, Economic Trends, No. 589.
2. Allard-Prigent C., Audenis C., Berger K., Carnot N., Duchêne S. and Pesin F. (2002) Présentation du modèle MÉSANGE: Modèle économétrique de simulation et d’analyse générale de l’économie, Ministère de l’Économie, des Finances et de l’Industrie, Direction de la Prévision, Document de Travail No. 05/2002.
3. Altissimo F., Bassanetti A., Cristadoro R., Forni M., Lippi M., Hallin M., Reichlin L. and Veronese G. (2001) EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3108.
4. Altissimo F., Siviero S. and Terlizzese D. (2002) How Deep are the Deep Parameters?, Annales d’Économie et de Statistique, No. 67-8.
5. Amato J. and Laubach T. (2000) The Role of Forecasts in Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Second Quarter.
6. Anand S. and Sen A. (1994) Human Development Index: Methodology and Measurement, UNDP Occasional Paper No. 12.
7. Andersson E., Bock D. and Frisén M. (2004) Detection of Turning Points in Business Cycles, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 1.
8. Ando A. and Modigliani F. (1963) The ‘Life Cycle’ Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests, American Economic Review, Vol. 53, No. 1.
9. Ang A., Piazzesi M. and Wei M. (2004) What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about GDP Growth?, NBER Working Paper No. 10672.
10. Ariga K. and Matsui K. (2003) Mismeasurement of the CPI, NBER Working Paper No. 9436.
11. Artis M., Bladen-Hovell R. and Zhang W. (1995) Turning Points in the International Business Cycle: An Analysis of the OECD Leading Indicators for the G-7 Countries, OECD Economic Studies, No. 24.
12. Artis M. and Taylor M. (1995) Misalignment, Debt Accumulation and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, National Institute Economic Review, No. 153.
13. Ashworth P. and Davis P. (2001) Some Evidence on Financial Factors in the Determination of Aggregate Business Investment for the G7 countries NIESR Discussion Paper No. 187.
14. Auerbach A., Kotlikoff L. and Leibfritz W. (eds) (1999) Generational Accounting Around the World, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
15. Azevedo J., Koopman S. and Rua A. (2003) Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: A Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2003-069/4.
16. Baffigi A., Golinelli R. and Parigi G. (2004) Bridge Models to Forecast the Euro Area GDP, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 20, No. 3.
17. Ball L. and Mankiw G. (2002) The NAIRU in Theory and Practice, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 16, No. 4.
18. Banca d’Italia (1986) Modello trimestrale dell’economia italiana Temi di discussione No. 80.
19. Bandholz H. and Funke M. (2003) In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 22, No. 4.
20. Banerjee A., Marcellino M. and Masten I. (2003) Leading Indicators for Euro Area Inflation and GDP Growth IGIER Working Paper No. 235.
21. Bank of England (1999) Economic Models at the Bank of England, London: Bank of England.
22. Barrell R., Dury K., Hurst I. and Pain N. (2001) Modelling the World Economy: The NIESR model NiGEM presented at an ENEPRI workshop, Paris, July.
23. Barro R. and Gordon D. (1983) A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91, No. 4.
24. Bartelmus P. (1999) Greening the National Accounts: Approach and Policy Use United Nations, DESA Discussion Paper No. 3.
25. Batini N. and Turnbull K. (2002) A Dynamic Monetary Conditions Index for the UK, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 24, No. 3.
26. Baxter M. and King R. (1999) Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 81, No. 4.
27. Bean C. (2001) The Formulation of Monetary Policy at the Bank of England, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Winter.
28. Belli P., Anderson J., Barnum H., Dixon J. and Tan J. (1997) Handbook on Economic Analysis of Investment Operations, World Bank, Operations Policy Department.
29. Benati L. (2001) Band-Pass Filtering, Cointegration and Business Cycle Analysis, Bank of England Working Paper No. 142.
30. Berg A. and Patillo C. (1999) Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 46, No. 2.
31. Bernanke B. (2002) Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here, Remarks before the National Economists Club, Washington, DC, 21 November.
32. Bernanke B., Boivin J. and Eliasz P. (2004) Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach, NBER Working Paper No. 10220.
33. Beveridge S. and Nelson C. (1981) A New Approach to Decomposition of Economic Time Series into Permanent and Transitory Components with Particular Attention to Measurement of the ‘Business Cycle’, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 7, No. 2.
34. Beveridge S. and Oickle C. (1994) A Comparison of Box-Jenkins and Objective Methods for Determining the Order of a Non-Seasonal ARMA Model, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 13, No. 5.
35. Biart M. and Praet P. (1986) Forecasting Aggregate Demand Components With Opinions Surveys in the Four Main EC Countries - Experience with the BUSY Model, European Commission Economic Papers, No. 46.
36. Blades D. and Roberts D. (2002) Measuring the Non-Observed Economy, OECD Statistics Brief, No. 5.
37. Blanchard O. (1990) Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 79.
38. Blanchard O. and Katz L. (1999) Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence, American Economic Review, Vol. 89, No. 2.
39. Blanchard O. and Quah D. (1989) The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances, American Economic Review, Vol. 79, No. 4.
40. Blinder A. (1990) Inventory Theory and Consumer Behavior, Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
41. Blinder A. (1998) Central Banking in Theory and Practice, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
42. Bloem A., Dippelsman R. and Mæhle N. (2001) Quarterly National Accounts Manual: Concepts, Data Sources and Compilation, Washington, DC: IMF.
43. Bonin H. and Patxot C. (2004) Generational Accounting as a Tool to Assess Fiscal Sustainability: An Overview of the Methodology, IZA Discussion Paper No. 990.
44. Boone L., Girouard N. and Wanner I. (2001) Financial Market Liberalisation, Wealth and Consumption, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 308.
45. Bouthevillain C., Cour-Thimann P., Van den Dool G. et al. (2001) Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: An Alternative Approach, ECB Working Paper No. 77.
46. Bowman C. and Husain A. (2004) Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment, IMF Working Paper No. 04/41.
47. Box G. and Jenkins A. (1976) Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, San Francisco, CA: Holden Day.
48. Brainard W. (1967) Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Policy, American Economic Review, Vol. 57, No. 2.
49. Brunnermeier M. (2001) Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis and Herding, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
50. Budd A. (1998) Economic Policy, With and Without Forecasts, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, November.
51. Burniaux J.-M., Duval R. and Jaumotte F. (2003) Coping with Ageing: A Dynamic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Alternative Policy Options on Future Labour Supply in OECD Countries, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 371.
52. Burns T. (1986) The Interpretation and Use of Economic Predictions, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series A, Vol. 407.
53. Burns T. (2001) The Costs of Forecast Errors, in D. Hendry and N. Ericsson (eds) Understanding Economic Forecasts, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
54. Burns A. and Mitchell W. (1946) Measuring Business Cycles, New York: NBER.
55. Byrne J. and Davis E. (2003) Disaggregate Wealth and Aggregate Consumption: An Investigation of Empirical Relationships for the G7, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 65, No. 2.
56. Case K., Quigley J. and Shiller R. (2003) Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market, Berkeley University, Program on Housing and Urban Policy Working Paper No. W01-004.
57. Casey B., Oxley H., Whitehouse E., Antolin P., Duval R. and Leibfritz W. (2003) Policies for an Ageing Society: Recent Measures and Areas for Further Reform, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 369.
58. Cashin P. and McDermott J. (2002) The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, No. 2.
59. CBO (Congressional Budget Office) (2003) CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record, Washington, DC.
60. CBO (2004a) A Summary of Alternative Methods for Estimating Potential GDP, Washington, DC.
61. CBO (2004b) The Cyclically Adjusted and Standardized Budget Measures: Updated Estimates, Washington, DC.
62. Charpin F. (2002) Un indicateur de croissance à court terme de la zone euro, Revue de l’OFCE, No. 83.
63. Cheung Y.-W. and Chinn M. (2001) Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the US Market, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 20, No. 4.
64. Chirinko R. (1993) Business Fixed Investment Spending: Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 31, No. 4.
65. Christiano L. and Fitzgerald T. (2003) The Band Pass Filter, International Economic Review, Vol. 44, No. 2.
66. Claessens S. and Forbes C. (eds) (2001) International Financial Contagion, Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
67. Clarida R., Gali J. and Gertler M. (1999) The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 37, No. 4.
68. Claus I. and Li K. (2003) New Zealand’s Production Structure: An International Comparison, New Zealand Treasury Working Paper No. 03/16.
69. Cohen D. and Follette G. (forthcoming) Forecasting Government Taxes and Spending in the United States: An Overview, in M. Artis, J. Perez and J. Toro (eds) Conference Proceedings: Forecasting Fiscal Policy, Sevilla, Spain: centrA.
70. Cook L. (2004) Revisions to Statistics: Their Role in Measuring Economic Progress, Economic Trends, No. 603.
71. Corsetti G., Pesenti P. and Roubini N. (1999) What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?, Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 11, No. 3.
72. Côté D., Kuszczak J., Lam J.-P., Liu Y. and St-Amant P. (2003) A Comparison of Twelve Macroeconomic Models of the Canadian Economy, Bank of Canada Technical Report No. 94.
73. Cotis J.-P., Méary R. and Sobzack N. (1998) Le chômage d’équilibre: une évaluation, Revue de l’OFCE, Vol. 49, No. 3.
74. Cotis J.-P., Elmeskov J. and Mourougane A. (2005) Estimates of Potential Output: Benefits and Pitfalls from a Policy Perspective, in L. Reichlin (ed.) The Euro Area Business Cycle: Stylized Facts and Measurement Issues, London: CEPR.
75. Coyle D. (2001) Making Sense of Published Economic Forecasts, in D. Hendry and N. Ericsson (eds) Understanding Economic Forecasts, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
76. CPB (Central Planning Bureau) (2003) JADE: A Model for the Joint Analysis of Dynamics and Equilibrium, CPB Document No. 30, Netherlands.
77. Croushore D. (2004) Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?, University of Richmond, mimeo.
78. Cummins J., Hassett K. and Hubbard G. (1996) Tax Reforms and Investment: A Cross-Country Comparison, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 62, No. 1-2.
79. Dalsgaard T. and de Serres A. (2001) Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins, in A. Brunila, M. Buti and D. Franco (eds) The Stability and Growth Pact: The Architecture of Fiscal Policy in EMU, Basingstoke: Palgrave.
80. Dalsgaard T., André C. and Richardson P. (2001) Standard Shocks in the OECD INTERLINK Model, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 306.
81. Darby J., Ireland J., Leith C. and Wren Lewis S. (1999) COMPACT: A Rational Expectations, Intertemporal Model of the United Kingdom Economy, Economic Modelling, Vol. 16, No. 1.
82. Davidson J., Hendry D., Srba F. and Yeo S. (1978) Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time Series Relationship between Consumers’ Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom, Economic Journal, Vol. 88, No. 352.
83. De Masi P. (1997) IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice, IMF Working Paper No. 97-177.
84. Denis C., McMorrow K. and Röger W. (2002) Production Function Approach to Calculating Potential Growth and Output Gaps - Estimates for the EU Member States and the US, European Commission Economic Papers, No. 176.
85. Denton F. (1971) Adjustment of Monthly or Quarterly Series to Annual Totals: An Approach Based on Quadratic Minimisation, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 66, No. 333.
86. Detken C., Dieppe A., Henry J., Smets F. and Marin C. (2002) Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches, Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 41, No. 4.
87. Deutsche Bundesbank (1994) Macro-Econometric Model of the German Economy, Frankfurt am Main.
88. Devarajan S. and Robinson S. (2002) The Influence of Computable General Equilibrium Models on Policy, International Food Policy Research Institute, TMD Discussion Paper No. 98.
89. Diebold F., Tay A. and Wallis K. (1999) Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters, in R. Engle and H. White (eds) Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting: A Festschrift in Honour of Clive W.J. Granger, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
90. Dixon J. and Hamilton K. (1996) Expanding the Measure of Wealth, Finance and Development, Vol. 33, No. 4.
91. Don F. (2001) Forecasting in Macroeconomics: A Practitioner’s View, De Economist, Vol. 149, No. 2.
92. Doz C. and Lenglart F. (2001) Dynamic Factor Analysis: Estimation and Test with an Application to European Business Surveys, presented at a CEPR/Banca d’Italia Conference, Rome, September.
93. Dua P. and Banerji A. (2001) An Indicator Approach to Business and Growth Rate Cycles: The Case of India, Indian Economic Review, Vol. 36, No. 1.
94. Durlauf S. and Fafchamps M. (2004) Social Capital, NBER Working Paper No. 10485.
95. Dynan K. and Elmendorf D. (2001) Do Provisional Estimates of Output Miss Economic Turning Points?, Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series, No. 2001-52.
96. ECB (European Central Bank) (2001a) Assessment of General Economic Statistics for the Euro Area, Monthly Bulletin, April.
97. ECB (2001b) A Guide to Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projection Exercises, June.
98. ECB (2004) The Impact of the Number of Working Days on Euro Area GDP in 2004, Monthly Bulletin, June.
99. Edwards R. and Magee J. (2001) Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 8th edn, Boca Raton, FL: St Lucie Press.
100. Engen E. and Hubbard R. (2004) Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates, NBER Working Paper No. 10681.
101. Estrella A. and Fuhrer J. (2003) Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 85, No. 1.
102. Estrella A., Rodrigues A. and Schich S. (2003) How Stable Is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 85, No. 3.
103. European Commission (1999) Generational Accounting in Europe, European Economy, No. 6.
104. Fagan G., Henry J. and Mestre R. (2001) An Area-Wide Model (AWM) for the Euro Area, ECB Working Paper No. 42.
105. Faust J., Rogers J. and Wright J. (2000) News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements, Federal Reserve Board International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 690.
106. Faust J., Rogers J. and Wright J. (2003) Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We’ve Really Made, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 60, No. 1.
107. Filardo A. (2004) The 2001 US Recession: What Did Recession Prediction Models Tell Us?, BIS Working Paper No. 148.
108. Findley D., Monsell B., Bell W., Otto M. and Chen B. (1998) New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 16, No. 2.
109. Fintzen D. and Stekler H. (1999) Why Did Forecasters Fail to Predict the 1990 Recession?, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15, No. 3.
110. Forni M., Hallin M., Lippi M. and Reichlin L. (2001) Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area, Economic Journal, Vol. 111, No. 471.
111. Fracasso A., Genberg H. and Wyplosz C. (2003) How do Central Banks Write? An Evaluation of Inflation Reports by Inflation Targeting Central Banks, Geneva Reports on the World Economy Special Report No. 2, CEPR.
112. Friedman M. (1957) A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
113. Gallo G., Granger C. and Jeon Y. (2002) Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, No. 1.
114. Gauthier C., Graham C. and Liu Y. (2004) Financial Condition Indexes in Canada, Bank of Canada Working Paper No. 2004-22.
115. Geraats P. (2002) Central Bank Transparency, Economic Journal, Vol. 112, No. 483.
116. Giannoni M. (2002) Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy in a Forward-Looking Model, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 6, No. 1.
117. Giorno C., Richardson P., Roseveare D. and van den Noord P. (1995) Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 152.
118. Granger C. (1996) Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 11, No. 5.
119. Grasmann P. and Keereman F. (2001) An Indicator-Based Short-Term Forecast for Quarterly GDP in the Euro Area, European Commission Economic Papers, No. 154.
120. Greer M. (2003) Directional Accuracy Tests of Long-Term Interest Rate Forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 19, No. 2.
121. Gregoir S. and Lenglart F. (2000) Measuring the Probability of a Business Cycle Turning Point by Using a Multivariate Qualitative Hidden Markov Model, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 19, No. 2.
122. Griliches Z. (1994) Productivity, R&D and the Data Constraint, American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 1.
123. Hall S. (1995) Macroeconomics and a Bit More Reality, Economic Journal, Vol. 105, No. 431.
124. Hamilton J. (1989) A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle, Econometrica, Vol. 57, No. 2.
125. Hamilton J. (1994) Time Series Analysis, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
126. Hamilton J. (2003) What Is an Oil Shock?, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 113, No. 2.
127. Harding D. and Pagan A. (2002) Dissecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 49, No. 2.
128. Harrison R., Nikolov K., Quinn M., Ramsay G., Scott A. and Thomas R. (2005) The Bank of England Quarterly Model, Bank of England.
129. Harvey A. (1985) Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 3, No. 3.
130. Harvey C. (1991) The Term Structure and World Economic Growth, Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 1, No. 1.
131. Heald D. (2003) Fiscal Transparency: Concepts, Measurement and UK Practice, Public Administration, Vol. 81, No. 4.
132. Healy D. (1990) The Time of my Life, London: Penguin.
133. Healy T. and Côté S. (2001) The Well-being of Nations: The Role of Human and Social Capital, Paris: OECD.
134. Helbling T. and Terrones M. (2003) When Bubbles Burst, in IMF, World Economic Outlook, April.
135. Hendershott P. and White M. (2000) The Rise and Fall of Housing’s Favored Investment Status, Journal of Housing Research, Vol. 11, No. 2.
136. Hendry D. and Clements H. (2002) Pooling of Forecasts, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Economics Papers, No. 2002-W9.
137. Heravi S., Osborn D. and Birchenhall C. (2004) Linear versus Neural Network Forecasts for European Industrial Production Series, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 20, No. 3.
138. Herring R. and Wachter S. (2003) Bubbles in Real Estate Markets, in W. Hunter, G. Kaufman and M. Pomerleano (eds) Asset Price Bubbles: The Implications for Monetary, Regulatory, and International Policies, Cambridge MA: MIT Press.
139. Hertveldt B. and Lebrun I. (2003) MODTRIM II: A Quarterly Model for the Belgian Economy, Federal Planning Bureau Working Paper No. 6-2003.
140. HM Treasury (Her Majesty’s Treasury) (2001) Pre-Budget Report, London, November.
141. HM Treasury (2002) Trend Growth: Recent Developments and Prospects, London, April.
142. Hodrick R. and Prescott E. (1980) Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation, Discussion Paper No. 451, Carnegie Mellon University, reprinted in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 29, No. 1, 1997.
143. Hooper P., Johnson K. and Marquez J. (2000) Trade Elasticities for the G7 Countries, Princeton Studies in International Economics, No. 87.
144. IEA (International Energy Agency) (2004) World Energy Outlook, Paris.
145. IMF (International Monetary Fund) (2000) The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Global Economy, Research Department, December.
146. IMF (2004) GEM: A New International Macroeconomic Model, Research Department, January.
147. Isard P. (2000) The Role of MULTIMOD in the IMF’s Policy Analysis, IMF Policy Discussion Paper No. 00/5.
148. Islam N. (2003) What Have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?, Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 17, No. 3.
149. Ito T. (1990) Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data, American Economic Review, Vol. 80, No. 3.
150. Jorgenson D. (1997) Tax Policy and the Cost of Capital, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
151. Juhn G. and Loungani P. (2002) Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector’s Output Forecasts, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, No. 1.
152. Kaashoek J. and van Dijk H. (2003) Neural Networks: An Econometric Tool, in D. Giles (ed.) Computer-Aided Econometrics, New York, Basel: Marcel Dekker.
153. Kaldor N. (1961) Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth, in F. Lutz and D. Hague (eds) The Theory of Capital, New York: St Martin’s Press.
154. Keynes J.M. (1936) General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, London: Macmillan.
155. Kim C.-J. and Nelson C. (1999) Friedman’s Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations: Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 31, No. 3, Part 1.
156. Kim C.-J., Morley J. and Piger J. (2005) Nonlinearity and the Permanent Effects of Recessions, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 20, No. 2.
157. Klein L. (1950) Economic Fluctuations in the United States: 1921-1941, New York: Wiley.
158. Knight F. (1921) Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Boston, MA: Houghton and Mifflin.
159. Koen V. and van den Noord P. (2005) Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe: One-off Measures and Creative Accounting, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 417.
160. Kopits G. (2001) Fiscal Rules: Useful Policy Framework or Unnecessary Ornament?, IMF Working Paper No. 01/145.
161. Koutsogeorgopoulou V. (2000) A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 274.
162. Kranendonk H. (2003) The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance: Some Recommendations for Brussels, CPB Report, No. 2003/3.
163. Krugman P. (1979) A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 11, No. 3.
164. Krugman P. (1999) Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises, in P. Isard, A. Razin and A. Rose (eds) International Finance and Financial Crises - Essays in Honor of Robert P. Flood, Kluwer Academic Publishers and IMF.
165. Kydland F. and Prescott E. (1977) Rules Rather than Discretion: the Inconsistency of Optimal Plans, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No. 3.
166. Lafrance R. and St-Amant P. (1999) Real Exchange Rate Indexes for the Canadian Dollar, Bank of Canada Review, Autumn.
167. Landefeld J., Moulton B. and Vojtech C. (2003) Chained-Dollar Indexes Issues, Tips on Their Use, and Upcoming Changes, Survey of Current Business, Vol. 83, No. 11.
168. Laster D., Bennett P. and Geoum I. (1999) Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 114, No. 1.
169. Laubach T. (2003) New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt, Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series, No. 2003-12.
170. Laxton D., Isard P., Faruqee H., Prasad E. and Turtelboom B. (1998) MULTIMOD Mark III: The Core Dynamic and Steady-State Models, IMF Occasional Paper No. 164.
171. Layard R., Nickell S. and Jackman R. (1991) Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
172. Lebow D. and Rudd J. (2003) Measurement Error in the Consumer Price Index: Where Do We Stand?, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 41, No. 1.
173. Leontief W. (1941) The Structure of the American Economy, 1919-1929, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
174. Lequiller F. (2001) The New Economy and the Measurement of GDP Growth, INSEE Working Paper No. G2001-01.
175. L’Horty Y. and Rault C. (2003) Why is French Equilibrium Unemployment so High? An Estimation of the WS-PS Model, Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 6, No. 1.
176. Lin J.-L. and Liu T.-S. (2002) Modeling Lunar Calendar Holiday Effects in Taiwan, US Bureau of Census, mimeo.
177. Lindh T. and Malmberg B. (2002) Demography and Housing Demand - What Can we Learn from Residential Construction Data?, mimeo, May.
178. Loungani P. (2001) How Accurate are Private Sector Forecasts? Cross-Country Evidence from Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 17, No. 3.
179. Loungani P. (2002) ‘There Will Be Growth in the Spring’: How Credible are Forecasts of Recovery?, World Economics, Vol. 3, No. 1.
180. Lucas R. (1976) Econometric Policy Evaluation: a Critique, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 1.
181. Ludwig A. and Sløk T. (2004) The Relationship between Stock Prices, House Prices and Consumption in OECD Countries, Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 1, No. 1.
182. Maddison A. (2001) The World Economy: A Millennium Perspective, Paris: OECD Development Centre.
183. Maeso-Fernandez F., Osbat C. and Schnatz B. (2002) Determinants of the Euro Real Effective Exchange Rate: A BEER/PEER Approach, Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 41, No. 4.
184. Mahmoud E., DeRoeck R., Brown R. and Rice G. (1992) Bridging the Gap between Theory and Practice in Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, No. 2.
185. Malinvaud E. (1983) Essais sur la théorie du chômage, Paris: Calmann-Lévy.
186. Mankiw N., Romer D. and Weil D. (1992) A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, No. 107, No. 2.
187. Marcellino M. (forthcoming) Leading Indicators: What Have We Learned? in G. Elliot, C. Granger and A. Timmermann (eds) Handbook of Economic Forecasting, North Holland: Elsevier.
188. McCarthy J. and Peach R. (2002) Monetary Policy Transmission to Residential Investment, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, Vol. 8, No. 1.
189. McKibbin W. and Sachs J. (1989) The McKibbin-Sachs Global Model: Theory and Specification, NBER Working Paper No. 3100.
190. McMorrow K. and Röger W. (2001) Potential Output: Measurement Methods, ‘New’ Economy Influences and Scenarios for 2001-2010 - A Comparison of the EU15 and the US, European Commission Economic Papers, No. 150.
191. McMorrow K. and Röger W. (2004) The Economic and Financial Market Consequences of Global Ageing, New York: Springer-Verlag.
192. Meese R. and Rogoff K. (1983) Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: Do They Fit out of Sample?, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 14, No. 1.
193. Miles D. (2003) The UK Mortgage Market: Taking a Longer-Term View, Interim Report, London.
194. Monsell B., Aston J. and Koopman S. (2003) Toward X-13? US Census Bureau, mimeo.
195. Morley J., Nelson C. and Zivot E. (2003) Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP so Different?, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 135, No. 2.
196. Murata K. and Saitou T. (2004) The CAO Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of Japanese Economy (2004 version): Basic Structure, Multipliers, and Economic Policy Analyses, ESRI Discussion Paper No. 122.
197. Musso A. and Phillips S. (2002) Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, No. 1.
198. Nardo M. (2003) The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment, Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 17, No. 5.
199. Neftçi S. (1982) Optimal Prediction of Cyclical Downturns, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 4, No. 4.
200. Neftçi S. (1984) Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle? Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 92, No. 2.
201. Nilsson C. (2002) Rixmod - The Riksbank’s Macroeconomic Model for Monetary Policy Analysis, Economic Review, No. 2.
202. Nilsson R. (1987) OECD Leading Indicators, OECD Economic Studies, No. 9.
203. Obstfeld M. (1994) The Logic of Currency Crises, NBER Working Paper No. 4640.
204. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) (2002) Measuring the Non-Observed Economy: A Handbook, Paris.
205. OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) (2000) The Oxford World Macroeconomic Model: An Overview, mimeo, Oxford.
206. Oliveira Martins J. and Scarpetta S. (2002) Estimation of the Cyclical Behaviour of Mark-Ups: A Technical Note, OECD Economic Studies, No. 34.
207. OMB (Office of Management and Budget) (2004) Analytical Perspectives, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2005, Washington, DC.
208. Osborn D., Sensier M. and van Dijk D. (2005) Predicting Growth Regimes for European Countries, in L. Reichlin (ed.), The Euro Area Business Cycle: Stylized Facts and Measurement Issues, London: CEPR.
209. Palumbo M., Rudd J. and Whelan K. (2002) On the Relationships between Real Consumption, Income and Wealth, Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, No. 2002-38.
210. Phillips A. (1958) The Relationship between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957, Economica, Vol. 25, No. 100.
211. Pichette L. and Tremblay D. (2004) Are Wealth Effects Important for Canada?, Bank of Canada Review, Spring.
212. Pons J. (2000) The Accuracy of IMF and OECD Forecasts for G7 Countries, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 19, No. 1.
213. Poterba J. (2000) Stock Market Wealth and Consumption, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 14, No. 2.
214. Powell A. and Murphy C. (1997) Inside a Modern Macroeconometric Model - A Guide to the Murphy Model, 2nd edn, Berlin: Springer.
215. Qi M. (2001) Predicting US Recessions With Leading Indicators and Neural Network Models, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 17, No. 3.
216. Rae D. and Turner D. (2001) A Small Global Forecasting Model, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 286.
217. Ramsey F. (1928) A Mathematical Theory of Saving, Economic Journal, Vol. 38, No. 152.
218. Razzak W. (2001) Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence, Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 4, No. 1.
219. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (2003) An Introduction to the Forecasting and Policy System at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, mimeo.
220. Reifschneider D., Tetlow R. and Williams J. (1999) Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective, Federal Reserve Bulletin, January.
221. Richardson P., Visco I. and Giorno C. (1999) Predicting the Evolution and Effects of the Asia Crisis from the OECD Perspective, Economic Notes, Vol. 28, No. 3.
222. Roeger W. and in’t Veld J. (1997) QUEST II - A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model, European Economy, Economic Papers, No. 123.
223. Romer D. (2001) Advanced Macroeconomics, 2nd edn, New York: McGraw-Hill.
224. Sakellaris P. and Vijselaar F. (2004) Capital Quality Improvement and the Sources of Growth in the Euro Area, ECB Working Paper No. 368.
225. Santero T. and Westerlund N. (1996) Confidence Indicators and their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 170.
226. Sauvy A. (1984) Histoire économique de la France entre les deux guerres, Paris: Economica.
227. Schnatz B., Vijselaar F. and Osbat C. (2004) Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol. 140, No. 1.
228. Sédillot F. and Pain N. (2003) Indicator Models of Real GDP Growth in Selected OECD Countries, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 364.
229. Sensier M., Artis M., Osborn D. and Birchenhall C. (2004) Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 20, No. 2.
230. Simpson P., Osborn D. and Sensier M. (2001) Modelling Business Cycle Movements in the UK Economy, Economica, Vol. 68, No. 270.
231. Sims C. (1980) Macroeconomics and Reality, Econometrica, Vol. 48, No. 1.
232. Sims C. (1992) Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy, European Economic Review, Vol. 36, No. 5.
233. Smith R. (1998) Emergent Policy-Making with Macroeconometric Models, Economic Modelling, Vol. 15, No. 3.
234. Solow R. (1956) A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1.
235. Stalder P. (2001) Un modèle macroéconométrique pour la Suisse, Banque Nationale Suisse, Bulletin Trimestriel, No. 2.
236. Stein J. (1994) The Natural Exchange Rate of the US Dollar and Determinants of Capital Flows, in J. Williamson (ed.) Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
237. Stock J. and Watson M. (1989) New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators, in O. Blanchard and S. Fischer (eds) NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
238. Stock J. and Watson M. (1999) A Comparison of Linear and Non-Linear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series, in R. Engle and H. White (eds) Cointegration, Causality and Forecasting: A Festschrift in Honor of Clive W.J. Granger, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
239. Stock J. and Watson M. (2002) Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indices, Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, Vol. 20, No. 2.
240. Stone R. (1986) Nobel Memorial Lecture 1984: The Accounts of Society, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 1, No. 1.
241. Svensson L., Houg K., Solheim H. and Steigum E. (2002) An Independent Review of Monetary Policy and Institutions in Norway, Centre for Monetary Economics.
242. Tay A. and Wallis K. (1999) Density Forecasting: A Survey, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 19, No. 4.
243. Taylor J. (1993) Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 39.
244. Temple J. (1998) Robustness Tests of the Augmented Solow Model, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 13, No. 4.
245. Thomakos D. and Guerard J. (2004) Naïve, ARIMA, Nonparametric, Transfer Function and VAR Models: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 20, No. 1.
246. Tinbergen J. (1939) Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories, Geneva: League of Nations.
247. Triplett J. (2001) Hedonic Indexes and Statistical Agencies, Revisited, Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 27, No. 3/4.
248. Turner C., Boone L., Giorno C., Meacci M., Richardson P. and Rae D. (2001) Estimating the Structural Rate of Unemployment for the OECD Countries, OECD Economic Studies, No. 33.
249. Vaccara B. and Zarnowitz V. (1978) Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators, NBER Working Paper No. 244.
250. van den Noord, P. (2002) The Size and Role of Automatic Stabilisers in the 1990s and Beyond, in M. Buti, J. von Hagen and C. Martinez-Mongay (eds) The Behaviour of Fiscal Authorities -Stabilisation, Growth and Institutions, Basingstoke: Palgrave.
251. Van Dijk D., Teräsvirta T. and Franses P. (2002) Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments, Econometric Reviews, Vol. 21, No. 1.
252. Wallis K. (2003) Forecast Uncertainty, its Representation and Evaluation, Boletin Inflacion y Analisis Macroeconomico, No. 100.
253. Wallis K. (2004) Comparing Empirical Models of the Euro Economy, Economic Modelling, Vol. 21, No. 5.
254. Watson M. (1986) Univariate Detrending Methods with Stochastic Trends, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 18, No. 1.
255. Whitley J. (1994) A Course in Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting, London: Harvester Wheatsheaf.
256. Williamson C. (2002) The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index, World Economics, Vol. 3, No. 3.
257. Williamson J. (1983, revised 1985) The Exchange Rate System, Washington, DC: Institute of International Economics.
258. Wilson D. and Purushothaman R. (2003) Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050, Goldman Sachs Global Economic Paper No. 99.
259. Wilson K. (2005) The Architecture of the System of National Accounts: A Three-way Country Comparison, Canada, Australia and United Kingdom, NBER Working Paper No. 11106.
260. World Bank (2000) World Development Report 2000/2001: Attacking Poverty, Washington, DC.
261. Wößmann L. (2003) Specifying Human Capital, Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 17, No. 3.
262. Wren-Lewis S. (2003) Estimates of Equilibrium Exchange Rates for Sterling Against the Euro, in HM Treasury, UK Membership of the Single Currency: An Assessment of the Five Economic Tests, London.
263. York R. and Atkinson P. (1997) The Reliability of Quarterly National Accounts in Seven Major Countries: A User’s Perspective, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 171.
264. Zarnowitz V. (1986) The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting, Economic Forecasts: A Worldwide Survey, Vol. 3, No. 12.