How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth

International Journal of Forecasting

Volumn 17, Issue 3, 2001, Pages 419-432

  Loungani, Prakash ^a  

^a INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND   (United States)

Author keywords

Forecast accuracy; Forecast comparisons; Turning points

Indexed keywords

EID: 0000643696     PISSN: 01692070     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00098-X     Document Type: Article

References (14)

1. Artis, M. (1997). How accurate are the IMF's short-term forecasts? An examination of the World Economic Outlook. Staff Studies for the WEO.
2. Batchelor, R. (1997). How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? City University Business School (Provided by Consensus Forecasts, Inc.).
3. Davies A., Lahiri K. A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional data. Journal of Econometrics. 68:1995;205-227.
4. Davies, A., & Lahiri, K. (1999). Re-examining the rational expectations hypothesis using panel data on multi-period forecasts. In: Hsiao, C., Lahiri, K., Lee, L.-F., Pesaran, H. (Eds.), Analysis of panels and limited dependent variable models: In Honor of G.S. Maddala. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1999.
5. Fintzen D., Stekler H.O. Why did forecasters fail to predict the 1990 recession. International Journal of Forecasting. 15:1999;309-323.
6. Gallo, G.M., Granger, C., & Jeon, Y. (1999). The impact of the use of forecasts in information sets. Deutsche Bank Research, Research Notes in Economics and Statistics, September.
7. Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J., & Newbold, P. (1999). Analysis of a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts. Loughborough University, Department of Economics Research Paper No. 99/8, July.
8. Holden, K., & Peel, D. A. (1990). On testing for unbiasedness and efficiency of forecasts. The Manchester School Vol. LVIII No. 2, June 1990, 120-127.
9. Keane M., Runkle D. Testing the rationality of price forecasts: new evidence from panel data. American Economic Review. 80:1990;714-735.
10. McNees S.K. Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions. Lahiri K., Moore G.H. Leading economic indicators: new approaches and forecasting. 1991;Cambridge University Press, New York.
11. Nordhaus W.D. Forecasting efficiency: concepts and applications. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 69:1997;667-674.
12. Öller L.-E., Barot B. The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting. 16:2000;293-315.
13. Zarnowitz, V. (1986). The record and improvability of economic forecasting. NBER Working Paper No. 2099, December.
14. Zarnowitz, V. (1991). Has Macro-Forecasting Failed?, NBER Working Paper No. 3867.