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Volumn 15, Issue 3, 1999, Pages 309-323

Why did forecasters fail to predict the 1990 recession?

Author keywords

Forecast errors; Macroeconomic forecasting; Rational forecast bias; Recession

Indexed keywords


EID: 0000777506     PISSN: 01692070     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00072-7     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (37)

References (24)
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    • McNees, S. K. (1991). Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions. In K. Lahiri, G. H. Moore, Leading economic indicators: New approaches and forecasting records (pp. 151-168). New York: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1991) Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records , pp. 151-168
    • McNees, S.K.1
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    • The 1990-91 recession in historical perspective
    • McNees S.K. The 1990-91 recession in historical perspective. New England Economic Review. Jan/Feb:1992;3-22.
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    • Forecast smoothing and the optimal underutilization of information at the Federal Reserve
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    • Stekler, H.O.1
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    • A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: Econometric issues and recent experience
    • In J.H. Stock, & M.W. Watson National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Business Cycles Chicago: University of Chicago Press
    • Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1993). A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent experience. In J.H. Stock, & M.W. Watson, Business cycles, indicators, and forecasting (pp. 95-156). National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Business Cycles, vol. 28. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    • (1993) Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting , vol.28 , pp. 95-156
    • Stock, J.H.1    Watson, M.W.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.