A systematic review of early modelling studies of Ebola virus disease in West Africa

Epidemiology and Infection

Volumn 145, Issue 6, 2017, Pages 1069-1094

  Wong, Z S Y ^a,b   Bui, C M ^b   Chughtai, A A ^b   MacIntyre, C R ^c  

^a ST LUKE'S INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^b UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^c ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Ebola virus; infectious disease; modelling

Indexed keywords

CASE FATALITY RATE; DISEASE ASSOCIATION; DISEASE MODEL; EBOLA HEMORRHAGIC FEVER; EBOLAVIRUS; EPIDEMIC; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; GUINEA; HUMAN; LIBERIA; NIGERIA; PHENOMENOLOGY; PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE; REVIEW; SIERRA LEONE; SYSTEMATIC REVIEW; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; AFRICA; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; HEMORRHAGIC FEVER, EBOLA; INCUBATION TIME; MORTALITY; STATISTICAL MODEL; TRANSMISSION;

AFRICA, WESTERN; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; EPIDEMICS; HEMORRHAGIC FEVER, EBOLA; HUMANS; INFECTIOUS DISEASE INCUBATION PERIOD; MODELS, STATISTICAL; MORTALITY;

EID: 85011890559     PISSN: 09502688     EISSN: 14694409     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268817000164     Document Type: Review

References (77)

1. World Health Organization. Ebola Situation Reports. World Health Organization, 2016 [cited 2016 18 Jan]. (http://apps.who.int/ebola/ebola-situation-reports).
2. World Health Organization. Latest Ebola outbreak over in Liberia; West Africa is at zero, but new flare-ups are likely to occur: World Health Organization; 2016. [cited 2016 18 Jan]. (http://who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2016/ebola-zero-liberia/en/).
3. MacIntyre CR, Chughtai AA. Recurrence and reinfection - a new paradigm for the management of Ebola virus disease. International Journal of Infectious Diseases 2016; 43: 58-61.
4. Drake JM, et al. Transmission models of historical Ebola outbreaks. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2015; 21: 1447-1450.
5. Weitz JS, Dushoff J. Modeling post-death transmission of Ebola: challenges for inference and opportunities for control. Scientific Reports 2015; 5: 1-7.
6. Gibbons CL, et al. Measuring underreporting and underascertainment in infectious disease datasets: a comparison of methods. BMC Public Health 2014; 14: 1-17.
7. Heffernan RT, et al. Low seroprevalence of IgG antibodies to Ebola virus in an epidemic zone: Ogooue-Ivindo region, Northeastern Gabon, 1997. Journal of Infectious Diseases 2005; 191: 964-968.
8. Leroy EM, et al. Human asymptomatic Ebola infection and strong inflammatory response. Lancet (London, England) 2000; 355: 2210-2215.
9. Meltzer MI, et al. Estimating the future number of cases in the Ebola epidemic-Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014-2015. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report Surveillance Summaries (Washington, DC: 2002) 2014; 63 (Suppl. 3): 1-14.
10. Manguvo A, Mafuvadze B. The impact of traditional and religious practices on the spread of Ebola in West Africa: time for a strategic shift. Pan African Medical Journal 2015; 22 (Suppl. 1): 9.
11. Chretien J-P, Riley S, George DB. Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic. eLife 2015; 4: e09189, 1-15.
12. Moher D, Liberati A, Tetzlaff J, Altman DG. Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses: the PRISMA statement. International Journal of Surgery (London, England) 2010; 8: 336-341.
13. Diekmann O, Heesterbeek JA, Metz JA. On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. Journal of Mathematical Biology 1990; 28: 365-382.
14. Keeling MJ. Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals. In: Rohani P, ed. Woodstock: Princeton University Press, 2008, 10-11,43.
15. Fine PE. The interval between successive cases of an infectious disease. American Journal of Epidemiology 2003; 158: 1039-1047.
16. Wallinga J, Lipsitch M. How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 2007; 274: 599-604.
17. Ministry of Health and Sanitation TRoSL. Ebola Situation Report 2016 [cited 2016 Nov 18]. (http://health.gov.sl/?page-id=583).
18. (MMWR). MaMWR. Current weekly 2016 [cited 2016 Nov 18]. (http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html).
19. Data for the 2014 ebola outbeak in West Africa 2016 [cited 2016 Nov 18]. (https://github.com/cmrivers/ebola).
20. blog Vs. Ebola virus disease (EVD) 2014 West African outbreak 2016 [cited 2016 Nov 18]. (http://virologydown under.blogspot.jp/2014/07/ebola-virus-disease-evd-2014-west.html).
21. Agency CI. The World Factbook 2016 [cited 2016 Nov 18]. (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/).
22. Nations U. Population Division 2016 [cited 2016 Nov 18]. (http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/).
23. Chowell G, et al. The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda. Journal of Theoretical Biology 2004; 229: 119-126.
24. Legrand J, et al. Understanding the dynamics of Ebola epidemics. Epidemiology and Infection 2007; 135: 610-621.
25. WHO Ebola Response Team. Ebola virus disease in West Africa - the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. New England Journal of Medicine 2014; 371: 1481-1495.
26. Althaus CL. Estimating the reproduction number of Ebola virus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa. PLoS Currents 2014; 6.
27. Althaus CL, et al. Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: transmission dynamics and rapid control. Epidemics 2015; 11: 80-84.
28. Barbarossa MV, et al. Transmission dynamics and inal epidemic size of Ebola virus disease outbreaks with varying interventions. PLoS ONE 2015; 10: e0131398.
29. Gomes MF, et al. Assessing the international spreading risk associated with the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak. PLoS Currents 2014; 6.
30. Pandey A, et al. Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa. Science (New York, NY) 2014; 346: 991-995.
31. Hsieh YH, et al. Impact of visitors and hospital staff on nosocomial transmission and spread to community. Journal of Theoretical Biology 2014; 356: 20-29.
32. Agusto FB, Teboh-Ewungkem MI, Gumel AB. Mathematical assessment of the effect of traditional beliefs and customs on the transmission dynamics of the 2014 Ebola outbreaks. BMC Medicine 2015; 13: 96-112.
33. Ajelli M, et al. The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak in Pujehun, Sierra Leone: epidemiology and impact of interventions. BMC Medicine 2015; 13 (no pagination)(281).
34. Browne C, Gulbudak H, Webb G. Modeling contact tracing in outbreaks with application to Ebola. Journal of Theoretical Biology 2015; 384: 33-49.
35. Hsieh YH. Temporal course of 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak inWest Africa elucidated through morbidity and mortality data: a tale of three countries. PLoS ONE 2015; 10: e0140810.
36. Khan A, et al. Estimating the basic reproductive ratio for the Ebola outbreak in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2015; 4: 13.
37. Kiskowski MA. A three-scale network model for the early growth dynamics of 2014 west Africa Ebola epidemic. PLoS Currents 2014; 6.
38. Kucharski AJ, et al. Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2015; 112: 14366-14371.
39. Li Z, et al. Dynamical analysis of an SEIT Epidemic model with application to Ebola virus transmission in Guinea. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine 2015; 2015: 582625.
40. Merler S, et al. Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreakofEbola virus disease inLiberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis. Lancet Infectious Diseases 2015; 15: 204-211.
41. Valdez LD, et al. Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies. Scientific Reports 2015; 5: 12172.
42. Yamin D, et al. Effect of Ebola progression on transmission and control in Liberia. Annals of Internal Medicine 2015; 162: 11-17.
43. Area I, et al. On a fractional order Ebola epidemic model. Advances in Difference Equations 2015; 2015: 278-289.
44. Bellan SE, et al. Ebola control: effect of asymptomatic infection and acquired immunity. Lancet 2014; 384: 1499-1500.
45. Dong F, et al. Evaluation of Ebola spreading in West Africa and decision of optimal medicine delivery strategies based on mathematical models. Infection, Genetics and Evolution: Journal of Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Genetics in Infectious Diseases 2015; 36: 35-40.
46. Drake JM, et al. Ebola cases and health system demand in Liberia. PLoS Biology 2015; 13: e1002056.
47. Fast SM, et al. The role of social mobilization in controlling Ebola virus in Lofa County, Liberia. PLoS Currents 2015; 7.
48. White RA, et al. Projected treatment capacity needs in Sierra Leone. PLoS Currents 2015; 7.
49. Camacho A, et al. Temporal changes in Ebola transmission in Sierra Leone and implications for control requirements: a real-time modelling study. PLoS Currents 2015; 7.
50. Chowell G, et al. Is West Africa approaching a Catastrophic phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic slowing down? Different models yield different answers for Liberia. PLoS Currents 2014; 6.
51. Evans RJ, Mammadov M. Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014. F1000Research 2014; 3: 319.
52. Fasina FO, et al. Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease outbreak inNigeria, July to September 2014. Euro Surveillance: Bulletin Europeen sur lesmaladies transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin 2014; 19: 20920.
53. Fisman D, Tuite A. Projected impact of vaccination timing and dose availability on the course of the 2014 West African Ebola Epidemic. PLoS Currents 2014; 6.
54. Fisman D, Khoo E, Tuite A. Early epidemic dynamics of the West African 2014 Ebola outbreak: estimates derived with a simple two-parameter model. PLoS Currents 2014; 6.
55. Lewnard JA, et al. Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis. Lancet Infectious Diseases 2014; 14: 1189-1195.
56. Liu W, Tang S, Xiao Y. Model selection and evaluation based on emerging infectious disease data sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine 2015; 2015: 207105.
57. Nishiura H, Chowell G. Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (evd), West Africa, march to august 2014. Eurosurveillance 2014; 19: 1-6.
58. Rivers CM, et al. Modeling the impact of interventions on an epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia. PLoS Currents 2014; 6.
59. Shaman J, Yang W, Kandula S. Inference and forecast of the current west African Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. PLoS Currents 2014; 6.
60. Shen M, Xiao Y, Rong L. Modeling the effect of comprehensive interventions on Ebola virus transmission. Scientific Reports 2015; 5: 1-17.
61. Siettos C, et al. Modeling the 2014 Ebola virus epidemic-agent-based simulations, temporal analysis and future predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone. PLoS Currents 2015; 7.
62. Towers S, et al. Mass media and the contagion of fear: the case of Ebola in America. PLoS ONE 2015; 10 (6): e129179, 1-13.
63. Webb G, et al. A model of the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa with contact tracing. PLoS Currents 2015; 7.
64. WHOER team. West African Ebola Epidemic after one year-slowing but not yet under control. New England Journal of Medicine 2015; 372: 584-587.
65. Vynnycky E, White R. An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling. Oxford, New York: OUP, 2010.
66. Kühnert D, Wu C-H, Drummond AJ. Phylogenetic and epidemic modeling of rapidly evolving infectious diseases. Infection, Genetics and Evolution 2011; 11: 1825-1841.
67. Wu JT, et al. Estimating infection attack rates and severity in real time during an influenza pandemic: analysis of serial cross-sectional serologic surveillance data. PLoS Medicine 2011; 8: e1001103.
68. MacIntyre CR, Chughtai AA. Recurrence and reinfection - a new paradigm for the management of Ebola virus disease. International Journal of Infectious Diseases 2016; 43: 58-61.
69. Chughtai AA, Barnes M, Macintyre CR. Persistence of Ebola virus in various body fluids during convalescence: evidence and implications for disease transmission and control. Epidemiology and Infection 2016; 144: 1652-1660.
70. Rodriguez LL, et al. Persistence and genetic stability of Ebola virus during the outbreak in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1995. Journal of infectious diseases 1999; 179 (Suppl. 1): S170-S176.
71. Kreuels B, et al. A case of severe Ebola virus infection complicated by Gram-negative septicemia. New England Journal of Medicine 2014; 371: 2394-2401.
72. Emond RT, et al. A case of Ebola virus infection. British Medical Journal 1977; 2: 541-544.
73. Rowe AK, et al. Clinical, virologic, and immunologic follow-up of convalescent Ebola hemorrhagic fever patients and their household contacts, Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Commission de Lutte contre les Epidemies a Kikwit. The Journal of Infectious Diseases 1999; 179 (Suppl. 1): S28-S35.
74. Lyon GM, et al. Clinical care of two patients with Ebola virus disease in the United States. New England Journal of Medicine 2014; 371: 2402-2409.
75. Christie A D-WG, et al. Possible sexual transmission of Ebola virus-Liberia, 2015. MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 2015; 64: 479-481.
76. Abbate JL, et al. Potential impact of sexual transmission on Ebola virus epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a case study. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2016; 10: e0004676.
77. Vinson JE, et al. The potential for sexual transmission to compromise control of Ebola virus outbreaks. Biology Letters 2016; 12: 20151079; 1-14.