Mathematical assessment of the effect of traditional beliefs and customs on the transmission dynamics of the 2014 Ebola outbreaks

BMC Medicine

Volumn 13, Issue 1, 2015, Pages

  Agusto, Folashade B ^a   Teboh Ewungkem, Miranda I ^b   Gumel, Abba B ^c,d  

^a AUSTIN PEAY STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b LEHIGH UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Community; Ebola; Health care workers; Hospital; Quarantine

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; CLINICAL EFFECTIVENESS; CONTROLLED STUDY; DISEASE ASSOCIATION; EARLY INFECTION STAGE; EBOLA DECEASED INDIVIDUAL; EBOLA HEMORRHAGIC FEVER; EPIDEMIC; GENERAL ASPECTS OF DISEASE; GUINEA; HEALTH BELIEF; HEALTH CARE SYSTEM; HEALTH EDUCATION; HUMAN; INFECTION CONTROL; INFECTION RISK; LATTER INFECTION STAGE; LIMITING HOSPITAL VISITATION; MASS COMMUNICATION; MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS; MATHEMATICAL COMPUTING; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MISCELLANEOUS NAMED GROUPS; NONHUMAN; NUMERICAL SIMULATION; RISK REDUCTION; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SIMULATION; SOCIAL ASPECT; SYMPTOMATIC INDIVIDUAL; TRADITIONAL BELIEEF; TRADITIONAL CUSTOMS; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; WORKING TIME; CULTURAL ANTHROPOLOGY; HEMORRHAGIC FEVER, EBOLA; PROCEDURES; PUBLIC HEALTH; THEORETICAL MODEL; TRANSMISSION;

CULTURE; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; HEMORRHAGIC FEVER, EBOLA; HUMANS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PUBLIC HEALTH;

EID: 84928817990     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17417015     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-015-0318-3     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Outbreaks chronology: Ebola virus disease. http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/history/chronology.html Accessed 1 Feb 2015.
2. World Health Organization. Ebola virus disease, fact sheet No 103. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/ Accessed 19 Oct 2014.
3. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Outbreaks chronology: Ebola hemorrhagic fever. http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/Ebola/resources/outbreak-table.html Accessed 25 Aug 2014.
4. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Ebola hemorrhagic fever. http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/Ebola/ Accessed 25 Aug 2014.
5. Ebola crisis: outbreak death toll rises to 4 447saysWHO. BBC News Africa. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29615452 Accessed 15 Oct 2014.
6. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa. http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/Ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/index.html Accessed 19 Oct 2014.
7. World Health Organization. Ebola situation report. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/ Accessed 2 Feb 2015.
8. Bray M, Chertow DS. Epidemiology and pathogenesis of Ebola virus disease. UpToDate. 2015. http://www.uptodate.com/contents/epidemiology-and-pathogenesis-of-ebola-virus-disease?topicKey=ID\%2F3023&elapsedTimeMs=1&view=print&displayedView=full .
9. Chowell G, Hengartner NW, Castillo-Chavez C, Fenimore PW, Hyman JM. The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda. J Math Biol. 2004; 28:503-22.
10. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Ebola hemorrhagic fever: fact sheet. http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/Ebola/pdf/Ebola-factsheet.pdf Accessed 15 Oct 2014.
11. WHO Ebola Response Team. Ebola virus disease in West Africa - the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. N Engl J Med. 2014. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1411100.
12. ZMapp manufactured by MAPP Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. 6160 Lusk Blvd. # C105 San Diego, CA 92121. http://www.mappbio.com/ .
13. TKM Ebola manufactured by Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corporation. 100 - 8900 Glenlyon Parkway Burnaby, British Columbia Canada V5J 5J8. http://www.tekmira.com/portfolio/tkm-ebola.php .
14. Ebola in West Africa, 779. Lancet Infect Dis. 2014; 14. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70785-6.
15. Quist-Arction O, Poon L. How a person can recover from Ebola. 2014. http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/04/11/301464924/how-a-patient-can-recover-from-Ebola Accessed 25 Aug 2014.
16. Althaus CL. Estimating the reproduction number of Ebola virus (EVOB) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa. PLOS Curr Outbreaks. 2014. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.91afb5e0f279e7f29e7056095255b288.
17. Fasina FO, Shittu A, Lazarus D, Tomori O, Simonsen L, Viboud C, et al. Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria, July to September 2014. Eurosurveillance. 2014; 19:9.
18. Legrand J, Grais RF, Boelle PY, Valleron AJ, Flahaut A. Understanding the dynamics of Ebola epidemics. Epidemiol Infect. 2007; 135:610-21.
19. Nishiura H, Chowell G. Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa. Eurosurveillance. 2014; 19:pii=20894.
20. Towers S, Patterson-Lomba O, Castillo-Chavez C. Temporal variations in the effective reproduction number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola Outbreak. PLOS Curr Outbreaks. 2014. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.9e4c4294ec8ce1adad283172b16bc908.
21. Meltzer MI, Atkins CY, Santibanez S, Knust B, Petersen BW, Ervin ED, et al.Estimating the future number of cases in the Ebola epidemic - Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014-2015. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2014; 63:1-14.
22. Health infectious disease: health group pleads for more workers to combat Ebola outbreak. Time. http://time.com/3340439/Ebola-outbreak-west-africa-who/ Accessed 19 Oct 2014.
23. Ebola patients flee as Liberia clinic looted. Al Jazeera. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/08/Ebola-patients-flee-as-liberia-clinic-looted-201481713725590885.html Accessed 29 Sep 2014.
24. Hogan C. There is no such thing as Ebola. Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/07/18/there-is-no-such-thing-as-Ebola/ Accessed 14 Oct 2014.
25. Wilson J. Eight killed in Guinea town over Ebola fears by CNN. 2014. http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/19/health/Ebola-guinea-killing/index.html Accessed 29 Sep 2014.
26. Jerving S. Why Liberians thought Ebola was a government scam to attract western aid. Decades of corruption have left Liberians suspicious of their government. The Nation. http://www.thenation.com/article/181618/why-liberians-thought-Ebola-was-government-scam-attract-western-aid Accessed 14 Oct 2014.
27. Bloch H. Denying Ebola turns out to be a very human response. http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/09/27/350925364/denying-Ebola-turns-out-to-be-a-very-human-response Accessed 14 Oct 2014.
28. WHO warns of West Africa's Ebola shadow zones. Al Jazeera. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/08/who-warns-africa-Ebola-shadow-zones-2014822225018688250.html Accessed 9 Oct 2014.
29. Meet the world's bravest undertakers - Liberia's Ebola burial squad. The Telegraph. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/Ebola/11024042 Meet-the-worlds-bravest-undertakers-Liberias-Ebola-burial-squad.html. Accessed 29 Sep 2014.
30. World Health Organization. WHO: Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report 1 October 2014. http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/135600/1/roadmapsitrep_1Oct2014_eng.pdf Accessed May 1, 2015.
31. World Health Organization. Guinea. http://www.who.int/countries/gin/en/ Accessed 3 Feb 2015.
32. Anderson RM, May RM. Infectious diseases of humans. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991.
33. 0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. J Theor Biol. 1990; 229:119-26.
34. Hethcote HW. The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM Rev. 2000; 42:599-653.
35. van den Driessche P, Watmough J. Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math Biosci. 2002l; 180:29-48.
36. Gomes MFC, Pastore Y, Piontti A, Rossi L, Chao D, Longini I, et al. Assessing the international spreading risk associated with the 2014 West African Ebola outbreakPLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.cd818f63d40e24aef769dda7df9e0da5.
37. Blower SM, Dowlatabadi H. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: an HIV model, as an example. Int Stat Rev. 1994; 2:229-43.
38. Marino S, Hogue I B, Ray CJ, Kirschner DE. A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology. J Theor Biol. 2008; 254:178-96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.04.011 .
39. McLeod RG, Brewster JF, Gumel AB, Slonowsky DA. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for a SARS model with time-varying inputs and outputs. Math Biosci Eng. 2006; 3:527-44.
40. Guinean who brought Ebola to Senegal recovered, to return. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/10/us-health-ebola-senegal-idUSKBN0H50V720140910 Accessed May 1, 2015.
41. World Health Organization. Ebola virus disease. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/ Accessed 29 Sep 2014.
42. Roy-Macaulay C. Sierra Leone quarantines two million to fight Ebola. Associated Press http://news.yahoo.com/sierra-leone-cordon-off-3-areas-stop-ebola-085631264.html Accessed 29 Sep 2014.
43. Mark M. Nigeria fears fourth Ebola frontline after infected man lands in Lagos. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/13/ebola-nigerian-capital Accessed 29 Sep 2014.
44. World Health Organization. Ebola situation in Liberia: non-conventional interventions needed. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/8-september-2014/en/ Accessed 9 Oct 2014.
45. How we managed Ebola outbreak - Fashola. Daily Independent. http://dailyindependentnig.com/2014/09/managed-Ebola-outbreak-fashola/ Accessed 9 Oct 2014.
46. Ebola: Fashola's impressive leadership. Leadership. http://leadership.ng/columns/386173/Ebola-fasholas-impressive-leadership Accessed 9 Oct 2014.
47. World Health Organization. Ebola response roadmap update: 17 October 2014. http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/136645/1/roadmapupdate17Oct14_eng.pdf?ua=1 Accessed 18 Oct 2014.
48. World Health Organization. Ebola response roadmap update: 26 September 2014. http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/135029/1/roadmapupdate26sept14_eng.pdf?ua=1 Accessed 29 Sep 2014.
49. World Health Organization. WHO declares end of Ebola outbreak in Nigeria. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2014/nigeria-ends-ebola/en/ Accessed 20 Oct 2014.
50. National Association of Neonatal Nurse Practitioners. The impact of advanced practice nurses' shift length and fatigue on patient safety. 2012. http://www.nann.org/uploads/files/Fatigue_and_APRNs.pdf Accessed 7 Mar 2015.
51. US Department of Labor. Extended unusual work shifts. https://www.osha.gov/OshDoc/data_Hurricane_Facts/faq_longhours.html Accessed 6 Mar 2015.
52. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Non-US healthcare settings: international infection control and healthcare workers. http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/Ebola/hcp/non-us-healthcare-settings.html Accessed 20 Oct 2014.
53. Chitnis N, Cushing JM, Hyman JM. Bifurcation analysis of a mathematical model for malaria transmission. SIAM J Appl Math. 2006; 67:24-45.
54. Niger AM, Gumel AB. Mathematical analysis of the role of repeated exposure on malaria transmission dynamics. Differential Equations Dynamical Syst. 2008; 16:251-87.
55. Nuño M, Reichert TA, Chowell G, Gumel AB. Protecting residential care facilities from pandemic influenza. PNAS. 2008; 105:10625-30.