Temporal course of 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa elucidated through morbidity and mortality data: A tale of three countries

PLoS ONE

Volumn 10, Issue 11, 2015, Pages

  Hsieh, Ying Hen ^a  

^a CHINA MEDICAL UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AFRICA; ARTICLE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE; EPIDEMIC; FILOVIRUS INFECTION; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; GUINEA; HUMAN; INFECTION RATE; LIBERIA; MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MORBIDITY; MORTALITY; SEASONAL VARIATION; SIERRA LEONE; HEMORRHAGIC FEVER, EBOLA;

AFRICA, WESTERN; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; HEMORRHAGIC FEVER, EBOLA; HUMANS;

EID: 84955438211     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0140810     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. World Health Organization (WHO). Ebola virus disease update-West Africa, 08 August 2014. 2014. [Accessed 6 March 2015]. Availabel from: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014-08-08-ebola/en/.
2. World Health Organization (WHO). Situation Summary, 16 April 2015. [Accessed 17 April 2015]. Availabel from: http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.ebola-sitrep. ebola-summary-latest?lang=en.
3. WHO Ebola Response Team. Ebola virus disease in West Africa-the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. N Engl J Med. 2014;371:1481-1495. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1411100 PMID: 25244186
4. World Health Organization. One year into the Ebola epidemic: a deadly, tenacious and unforgiving: One year into the Ebola epidemic.. Report, January 15 2015. [Accessed 21 April 2015]. Availabel from: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/one-year-report/ebola-report-1-year.pdf?ua=1
5. Towers S, Patterson-Lomba O, Castillo-Chavez C. Temporal Variations in the Effective Reproduction Number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola Outbreak. PLoS Currents Outbreaks. 2014; Sep. 18. Edition 1.
6. Fisman D, Khoo E, Tuite A. Early epidemic dynamics of the West African 2014 Ebola outbreak: estimates derived with a simple two-parameter model. PLoS Currents Outbreaks. 2014. [Accessed 29 Dec. 2014]. Availabel from: http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/obk-14-0036-early-epidemic-dynamicsofthe-west-african-2014-ebola-outbreak-estimates-derived-with-a-simple-two-parameter-model
7. Nishiura H, Chowell G. Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014. Eurosurveillance. 2014;19:1-6.
8. Gomes MFC, Pastore Y, Piontti A, Rossi L, Chao D, Longini I, et al. Assessing the international spreading risk associated with the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak. PLoS Currents Outbreaks. 2014. [Accessed 29 Dec. 2014]. Availabel from: http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/assessing-theinternationalspreading-risk-associated-with-the-2014-west-african-ebola-outbreak/.
9. Althaus CL. Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa. PLoS Currents Outbreaks. 2014; Sep. 2. Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks. 91afb5e0f279e7f29e7056095255b288
10. Stadler T, Kühnert D, Rasmussen DA, Du Plessis L. Insights into the Early Epidemic Spread of Ebola in Sierra Leone Provided by Viral Sequence Data. PLoS Currents Outbreaks. 2014; Oct. 6. Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.02bc6d927ecee7bbd33532ec8ba6a25f
11. Lewnard JA, Ndeffo Mbah ML, Alfaro-Murillo JA, Altice FL, Bawo L, Nyenswah TG, et al. Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2014;14:1189-1195. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099 (14) 70995-8 PMID: 25455986
12. Yamin D, Gertler S, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Skrip LA, Fallah M, Nyenswah TG, et al. Effect of Ebola Progression on Transmission and Control in Liberia. Ann Intern Med. 2014. [Epub ahead of print]. (doi: 10. 7326/M14-2255) PMID: 25347321
13. Pandey A, Atkins KE, Medlock J, Wenzel N, Townsend JP, Childs JE, et al. Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa. Science 2014;346:991-995. [Accessed 29 Dec. 2014]. Availabel from: http://dx. doi.org/10.1126/science.1260612. doi: 10.1126/science.1260612 PMID: 25414312
14. Rivers CM, Lofgren ET, Marathe M, Eubank S, Lewis BL. Modeling the Impact of Interventions on an Epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia. PLoS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Nov. 6. Edition 2. Availabel at: http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/modeling-the-impact-of-interventions-on-anepidemicof-ebola-in-sierra-leone-and-liberia/.
15. Chowell G, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Kuang Y. Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia. PLoS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Nov. 20. Edition 1. Availabel at: http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/is-westafricaapproaching-a-catastrophic-phase-or-is-the-2014-ebola-epidemic-slowing-down-differentmodelsyield-different-answers-for-liberia/.
16. Webb G, Browne C, Huo X, Seydi O, Seydi M, Magal P. A Model of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa with Contact Tracing. PLoS Currents Outbreaks. 2015 Jan 30. Edition 1. Availabel at: http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/a-model-of-the-2014-ebola-epidemic-in-west-africa-with-contacttracing-2
17. World Health Organization (WHO). Situation Report, 4 March 2015. 2015. [Accessed 6 March 2015]. Availabel from: http://apps.who.int/ebola/current-situation/ebola-situation-report-4-march-2015.
18. Richards FJ. A flexible growth function for empirical use. J Exp Botany 1959;10:290-300.
19. Hsieh YH, Lee JY, Chang HL. SARS epidemiology modeling. Emerg Infect Dis. 2004;10:1165-1167. PMID: 15224675
20. Hsieh YH, Cheng YS. Real-time forecast of multiphase outbreak. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006;12:122-127. PMID: 16494728
21. Hsieh YH. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) during winter influenza season in the southern hemisphere. Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses. 2010;4:187-197. doi: 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2010.00147.x PMID: 20629772
22. Hsieh YH, Chen CWS. Turning points, reproduction number, and impact of climatological events for multi-wave dengue outbreaks. Tropical Medicine & International Health. 2009;14:628-638. doi: 10. 1111/j.1365-3156.2009.02277.x PMID: 19392743
23. Wallinga J, Lipsitch M. How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences. 2007;274:599-604.
24. Hsieh YH, Ma S, Valasco-Hernandez JX, Lee VJ, Lim WY. Early Outbreak of 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico Prior to Identification of pH1N1 Virus. PLoS ONE. 2011;6:e23853. doi: 10.1371/journal. pone.0023853 PMID: 21909366
25. Hsieh YH. Ascertaining the 2004-2006 HIV Type 1 CRF07-BC Outbreak among Injecting Drug Users in Taiwan. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2013;17:e838-e844. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2013. 01.002 PMID: 23414736
26. Hsieh YH, Fisman D, Wu J. On Epidemic Modeling in Real Time: 2009 Novel A (H1N1) Influenza Outbreak in Canada. BMC Research Notes. 2010;3:283. doi: 10.1186/1756-0500-3-283 PMID: 21050494
27. Hsieh YH, Cheng KF, Wu TN, Li TC, Chen CY, Chen JH, et al. Transmissibility and Temporal Changes of 2009 pH1N1 Pandemic during Summer and Fall/Winter Waves. BMC Infectious Diseases. 2011;11:332. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-11-332 PMID: 22136530
28. Getz WM, Gonzalez JP, Salter R, Bangura J, Carlson C, Coomber M, et al. Tactics and Strategies for Managing Ebola Outbreaks and the Salience of Immunization. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2015, Article ID 736507. doi: 10.1155/2015/736507 PMID: 25755674
29. Camacho A, Kucharski A, Aki-Sawyerr Y, White MA, Flasche S, Baguelin M, et al. Temporal Changes in Ebola Transmission in Sierra Leone and Implications for Control Requirements: a Real-time Modelling Study. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2015 eb 10. Edition 1. Availabel at: http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/temporal-changes-in-ebola-transmission-in-sierra-leone-and-implications-for-controlrequirementsa-real-time-modelling-study/.
30. Chowell G, Viboud C, Hyman JM, Simonsen L. The Western Africa Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Exhibits Both Global Exponential and Local Polynomial Growth Rates. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2015 Jan 21. Edition 1.
31. Plachouras D, Sudre B, Testa M, Robesyn E, Coulombier D. Letter to the editor: Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014-Eurosurveillance 17 September 2014. Euro Surveillance. 2014;19(37): pii=20907. PMID: 25259536