Perspectives on the role of mobility, behavior, and time scales in the spread of diseases

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 113, Issue 51, 2016, Pages 14582-14588

  Castillo Chavez, Carlos ^a,b,c   Bichara, Derdei ^d   Morin, Benjamin R ^a,e,f  

^a ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES   (Colombia)

^c YACHAY TECH UNIVERSITY   (Ecuador)

^d CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^e ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^f VASSAR COLLEGE   (United States)

Author keywords

Behavior; Complex adaptive systems; Infectious disease; Mobility; Risk

Indexed keywords

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK; ECONOMIC ASPECT; EPIDEMIC; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MONITORING; HUMAN; INFECTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; TIME; ANIMAL; CLIMATE; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE CARRIER; ECOLOGY; ECONOMICS; ENVIRONMENT; HOST PARASITE INTERACTION; NONBIOLOGICAL MODEL; STATISTICAL MODEL; ZIKA FEVER; ZIKA VIRUS;

ANIMALS; CLIMATE; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; COMMUNICABLE DISEASES; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; DISEASE VECTORS; ECOLOGY; ENVIRONMENT; EPIDEMICS; HOST-PARASITE INTERACTIONS; HUMANS; MODELS, ORGANIZATIONAL; MODELS, STATISTICAL; TIME; ZIKA VIRUS; ZIKA VIRUS INFECTION;

EID: 85006459262     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1604994113     Document Type: Review

References (91)

1. Castillo-Chavez C, et al. (2015) Beyond Ebola: Lessons to mitigate future pandemics. Lancet Glob Health 3(7):e354-e355.
2. Perrings C, et al. (2014) Merging economics and epidemiology to improve the prediction and management of infectious disease. Ecohealth 11(4):464-475.
3. Baroyan OV, et al. (1971) Computer modelling of influenza epidemics for the whole country (USSR). Adv Appl Probab 3(2):224-226.
4. Rvachev LA, Longini IM (1985) A mathematical model for the global spread of influenza. Math Biosci 75(1):3-22.
5. Fenichel EP, Kuminoff NV, Chowell G (2013) Skip the trip: Air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza. PLoS One 8(3):e58249.
6. Bajardi P, et al. (2011) Human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic. PLoS One 6(1):e16591.
7. Khan K, et al. (2009) Spread of a novel influenza a (H1N1) virus via global airline transportation. N Engl J Med 361(2):212-214.
8. Chowell G, Fenimore PW, Castillo-Garsow MA, Castillo-Chavez C (2003) SARS outbreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: The role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism. J Theor Biol 224(1):1-8.
9. Cauchemez S, et al. (2011) Role of social networks in shaping disease transmission during a community outbreak of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108(7):2825-2830.
10. Herrera-Valdez MA, Cruz-Aponte M, Castillo-Chavez C (2011) Multiple outbreaks for the same pandemic: Local transportation and social distancing explain the different "waves" of A-H1N1pdm cases observed in Mexico during 2009. Math Biosci Eng 8(1):21-48.
11. Castillo-Chavez C, et al. (2016) Modeling Ebola at the Mathematical and Theoretical Biology Institute (MTBI). Not Am Math Soc 63(4):366-371.
12. Towers S, et al. (2015) Mass media and the contagion of fear: The case of Ebola in America. PLoS One 10(6):e0129179.
13. Chew C, Eysenbach G (2010) Pandemics in the age of Twitter: Content analysis of Tweets during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. PLoS One 5(11):e14118.
14. Chowell G, Hyman JM, Eubank S, Castillo-Chavez C (2003) Scaling laws for the movement of people between locations in a large city. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 68(6 Pt 2):066102.
15. Pennings JME, Wansink B, Meulenberg MTG (2002) A note on modeling consumer reactions to a crisis: The case of the mad cow disease. Int J Res Market 19(1): 91-100.
16. Levinthal DA, March JG (1993) The myopia of learning. Strat Manag J 14(S2):95-112.
17. Levin SA (1992) The problem of pattern and scale in ecology: The Robert H. MacArthur Award lecture. Ecology 73(6):1943-1967.
18. Levins R (1969) Some demographic and genetic consequences of environmental heterogeneity for biological control. Bull Entomol Soc Am 15(3):237-240.
19. Wilson EO (1973) Group selection and its significance for ecology. Bioscience 23(11):631-638.
20. Levin SA, Paine RT (1974) Disturbance, patch formation, and community structure. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 71(7):2744-2747.
21. Paine RT, Levin SA (1981) Intertidal landscapes: Disturbance and the dynamics of pattern. Ecol Monogr 51(2):145-178.
22. Kareiva P, Mullen A, Southwood R (1990) Population dynamics in spatially complex environments: Theory and data [and discussion]. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 330(1257):175-190.
23. Bichara D, Castillo-Chavez C (2016) Vector-borne diseases models with residence times-A Lagrangian perspective. Math Biosci 281:128-138.
24. Bichara D, Kang Y, Castillo-Chavez C, Horan R, Perrings C (2015) SIS and SIR epidemic models under virtual dispersal. Bull Math Biol 77(11):2004-2034.
25. Fenichel EP, et al. (2011) Adaptive human behavior in epidemiological models. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108(15):6306-6311.
26. Chowell G, Viboud C, Wang X, Bertozzi SM, Miller MA (2009) Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study. PLoS One 4(12):e8164.
27. Chen FH (2004) Rational behavioral response and the transmission of STDs. Theor Popul Biol 66(4):307-316.
28. Del Valle S, Hethcote H, Hyman J, Castillo-Chavez C (2005) Effects of behavioral changes in a smallpox attack model. Math Biosci 195(2):228-251.
29. Klein E, Laxminarayan R, Smith DL, Gilligan CA (2007) Economic incentives and mathematical models of disease. Environ Dev Econ 12(5):707-732.
30. Chen FH (2009) Modeling the effect of information quality on risk behavior change and the transmission of infectious diseases. Math Biosci 217(2):125-133.
31. Reluga TC (2010) Game theory of social distancing in response to an epidemic. PLoS Comput Biol 6(5):e1000793.
32. Chen F, Jiang M, Rabidoux S, Robinson S (2011) Public avoidance and epidemics: Insights from an economic model. J Theor Biol 278(1):107-119.
33. Gersovitz M (2011) The economics of infection control. Annu Rev Resour Economics 3(1):277-296.
34. Karesh WB, Cook RA, Bennett EL, Newcomb J (2005) Wildlife trade and global disease emergence. Emerg Infect Dis 11(7):1000-1002.
35. Kilpatrick AM, Chmura AA, Gibbons DW, Fleischer RC, Marra PP, Daszak P (2006) Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103(51):19368-19373.
36. Kimball AM (2012) Risky Trade: Infectious Disease in the Era of Global Trade (Ashgate Publishing, New York).
37. Pavlin BI, Schloegel LM, Daszak P, et al. (2009) Risk of importing zoonotic diseases through wildlife trade, United States. Emerg Infect Dis 15(11):1721-1726.
38. Tatem AJ (2009) The worldwide airline network and the dispersal of exotic species: 2007-2010. Ecography (Cop.) 32(1):94-102.
39. Tatem AJ, Hay SI, Rogers DJ (2006) Global traffic and disease vector dispersal. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103(16):6242-6247.
40. Tatem AJ, Rogers DJ, Hay SI (2006) Global transport networks and infectious disease spread. Adv Parasitol 62:293-343.
41. Fenichel EP, Wang X (2013) The mechanism and phenomena of adaptive human behavior during an epidemic and the role of information. Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases (Springer, New York), pp 153-168.
42. Morin BR, Fenichel EP, Castillo-Chavez C (2013) SIR dynamics with economically driven contact rates. Nat Resour Model 26(4):505-525.
43. Daszak P, et al. (2006) The emergence of Nipah and Hendra virus: Pathogen dynamics across a wildlife-livestock-human continuum. Disease Ecology: Community Structure and Pathogen Dynamics (Oxford Univ Press, New York), pp 186-201.
44. Daszak P, Tabor GM, Kilpatrick AM, Epstein J, Plowright R (2004) Conservation medicine and a new agenda for emerging diseases. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1026(1):1-11.
45. Hethcote HW, Yi L, Zhujun J (1999) Hopf bifurcation in models for pertussis epidemiology. Math Comput Model 30(11-12):29-45.
46. Castillo-Chavez C, Hethcote HW, Andreasen V, Levin SA, Liu WM (1989) Epidemiological models with age structure, proportionate mixing, and cross-immunity. J Math Biol 27(3):233-258.
47. Bansal S, Grenfell BT, Meyers LA (2007) When individual behaviour matters: Homogeneous and network models in epidemiology. J R Soc Interface 4(16): 879-891.
48. Newman MEJ (2002) Spread of epidemic disease on networks. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 66(1 Pt 2):016128.
49. Pastor-Satorras R, Vespignani A (2001) Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 63(6):066117.
50. Newman MEJ (2003) The structure and function of complex networks. SIAM Rev 45(2):167-256.
51. Funk S, Gilad E, Watkins C, Jansen VAA (2009) The spread of awareness and its impact on epidemic outbreaks. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(16):6872-6877.
52. Epstein JM, Parker J, Cummings D, Hammond RA (2008) Coupled contagion dynamics of fear and disease: Mathematical and computational explorations. PLoS One 3(12):e3955.
53. Funk S, Gilada E, Jansen VAA (2010) Endemic disease, awareness, and local behavioural response. J Theor Biol 264(2) 501-509.
54. Perra N, Balcan D, Gonçalves B, Vespignani A (2011) Towards a characterization of behavior-disease models. PLoS One 6(8):e23084.
55. Hadeler KP, Castillo-Chavez C (1995) A core group model for disease transmission. Math Biosci 128(1):41-55.
56. Preisser EL, Bolnick DI (2008) The many faces of fear: Comparing the pathways and impacts of nonconsumptive predator effects on prey populations. PLoS One 3(6):e2465.
57. Meloni S, et al. (2011) Modeling human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of infectious diseases. Sci Rep 1:62.
58. Funk S, Salathé M, Jansen VAA (2010) Modelling the influence of human behaviour on the spread of infectious diseases: A review. J R Soc Interface 7(50):1247-1256.
59. Castillo-Chavez C, Song B (2004) Dynamical models of tuberculosis and their applications. Math Biosci Eng 1(2):361-404.
60. Castillo-Chavez C, Song B, Zhangi J (2003) An epidemic model with virtual mass transportation: The case of smallpox. Bioterrorism: Mathematical Modeling Applications in Homeland Security (Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia), Vol 28, pp 173-198.
61. Grünbaum D (1994) Translating stochastic density-dependent individual behavior with sensory constraints to an Eulerian model of animal swarming. J Math Biol 33(2):139-161.
62. Okubo A (1980) Diffusion and ecological problems: Mathematical models. Biomathematics, Vol 10.
63. Okubo A, Levin SA (2013) Diffusion and Ecological Problems: Modern Perspectives (Springer Science & Business Media, New York), Vol 14.
64. Cristiani E, Piccoli B, Tosin A (2014) Multiscale Modeling of Pedestrian Dynamics (Springer, New York), Vol 12.
65. Bellomo N, Piccoli B, Tosin A (2012) Modeling crowd dynamics from a complex system viewpoint. Math Model Meth Appl Sci 22(supp02):1230004.
66. Helbing D, Farkas I, Vicsek T (2000) Simulating dynamical features of escape panic. Nature 407(6803):487-490.
67. Helbing D, Keltsch J, Molnar P (1997) Modelling the evolution of human trail systems. Nature 388(6637):47-50.
68. Hutson V (1984) A theorem on average Liapunov functions. Mon Hefte Math 98: 267-275.
69. Bailey NTJ, et al. (1982) The Biomathematics of Malaria. The Biomathematics of Diseases (Charles Griffin and Company, High Wycombe, UK), Vol 1.
70. Honório NA, et al. (2003) Dispersal of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in an urban endemic dengue area in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz 98(2):191-198.
71. Koram KA, Bennett S, Adiamah JH, Greenwood BM (1995) Socio-economic risk factors for malaria in a peri-urban area of The Gambia. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 89(2):146-150.
72. Macdonald G (1956) Epidemiological basis of malaria control. Bull World Health Organ 15(3-5):613.
73. Macdonald G (1956) Theory of the eradication of malaria. Bull World Health Organ 15(3-5):369.
74. Ross R (1911) The Prevention of Malaria (John Murray, New York).
75. Smith DL, Dushoff J, McKenzie FE (2004) The risk of a mosquito-borne infection in a heterogeneous environment. PLoS Biol 2(11):e368.
76. Cosner C, et al. (2009) The effects of human movement on the persistence of vector-borne diseases. J Theor Biol 258(4):550-560.
77. Rodríguez DJ, Torres-Sorando L (2001) Models of infectious diseases in spatially heterogeneous environments. Bull Math Biol 63(3):547-571.
78. Ruktanonchai NW, Smith DL, De Leenheer P (2016) Parasite sources and sinks in a patched Ross-Macdonald malaria model with human and mosquito movement: Implications for control. Math Biosci 279:90-101.
79. Wesolowski A, et al. (2012) Quantifying the impact of human mobility on malaria. Science 338(6104):267-270.
80. Iggidr A, Sallet G, Souza MO (2016) On the dynamics of a class of multi-group models for vector-borne diseases. J Math Anal Appl 441(2):723-743.
81. Smith HL (1986) Cooperative systems of differential equations with concave nonlinearities. Nonlinear Anal Theor Meth Appl 10:1037-1052.
82. Geoffard PY, Philipson T (1996) Rational epidemics and their public control. Int Econ Rev 37(3):603-624.
83. Auld MC (2003) Choices, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics. J Health Econ 22(3):361-377.
84. Ferguson N (2007) Capturing human behaviour. Nature 446(7137):733-733.
85. Clark CW (1973) Profit maximization and the extinction of animal species. J Polit Econ 81(4):950-961.
86. Clark CW (1976) A delayed-recruitment model of population dynamics, with an application to baleen whale populations. J Math Biol 3(3-4):381-391.
87. Clark CW (1979) Mathematical models in the economics of renewable resources. SIAM Rev 21(1):81-99.
88. Morin BR, Perrings C, Levin S, Kinzig A (2014) Disease risk mitigation: The equivalence of two selective mixing strategies on aggregate contact patterns and resulting epidemic spread. J Theor Biol 363:262-270.
89. Morin B, Perrings C, Levin S, Kinzig A, Economic instruments for the socially optimal management of infectious disease. EcoHealth, in press.
90. Chowell G, Nishiura H, Bettencourt LM (2007) Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data. J R Soc Interface 4(12):155-166.
91. Morin BR, Perrings C, Kinzig A, Levin S (2015) The social benefits of private infectious disease-risk mitigation. Theor Ecol 8(4):467-479.