메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 4, Issue 12, 2007, Pages 154-166

Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data

Author keywords

Influenza; Pandemic; Reproduction number; San Francisco; Spanish flu

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; CONTROLLED STUDY; ENDEMIC DISEASE; HUMAN; INTERMETHOD COMPARISON; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; PANDEMIC; SEASONAL VARIATION; SPANISH INFLUENZA; STOCHASTIC MODEL; UNITED STATES; COMPARATIVE STUDY; EPIDEMIC; HEALTH SURVEY; INCIDENCE; INFECTION CONTROL; INFLUENZA; METHODOLOGY; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTOR; STATISTICS;

EID: 33846862467     PISSN: 17425689     EISSN: 17425662     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0161     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (269)

References (53)
  • 2
    • 33646354652 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Molecular virology: Was the 1918 flu avian in origin?
    • doi:10.1038/nature04824
    • Antonovics, J., Hood, M. E. & Howell Baker, C. 2006 Molecular virology: was the 1918 flu avian in origin? Nature 440, E9. (doi:10.1038/nature04824)
    • (2006) Nature , vol.440
    • Antonovics, J.1    Hood, M.E.2    Howell Baker, C.3
  • 4
    • 85020794136 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bettencourt, L. M. A. & Ribeiro, R. M. Submitted. Detecting early human transmission of H5N1 avian influenza. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA.
    • Bettencourt, L. M. A. & Ribeiro, R. M. Submitted. Detecting early human transmission of H5N1 avian influenza. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA.
  • 5
    • 33244490109 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linking population-level models with growing networks: A class of epidemic models
    • doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.72.046110
    • Breban, R., Vardavas, R. & Blower, S. 2005 Linking population-level models with growing networks: a class of epidemic models. Phys. Rev. E 72, 046110. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.72.046110)
    • (2005) Phys. Rev. E , vol.72 , pp. 046110
    • Breban, R.1    Vardavas, R.2    Blower, S.3
  • 6
    • 33744914909 scopus 로고
    • Measures for the prevention and control of respiratory infections in military camps
    • Capps, J. A. 1918 Measures for the prevention and control of respiratory infections in military camps. JAMA 71, 448-450.
    • (1918) JAMA , vol.71 , pp. 448-450
    • Capps, J.A.1
  • 7
    • 7944235308 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian MCMC approach to study transmission of influenza: Application to household longitudinal data
    • doi:10.1002/sim.1912
    • Cauchemez, S., Carrat, F., Viboud, C., Valleron, A. J. & Boelle, P. Y. 2004 A Bayesian MCMC approach to study transmission of influenza: application to household longitudinal data. Stat. Med. 23, 3469-3487. (doi:10.1002/sim.1912)
    • (2004) Stat. Med , vol.23 , pp. 3469-3487
    • Cauchemez, S.1    Carrat, F.2    Viboud, C.3    Valleron, A.J.4    Boelle, P.Y.5
  • 9
    • 0042168643 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • SARS Outbreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: The role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism
    • doi:10.1016/S0022-5193(03)00228-5
    • Chowell, G., Fenimore, P. W., Castillo-Garsow, M. A. & Castillo-Chavez, C. 2003 SARS Outbreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism. J. Theor. Biol. 24, 1-8. (doi:10.1016/S0022-5193(03)00228-5)
    • (2003) J. Theor. Biol , vol.24 , pp. 1-8
    • Chowell, G.1    Fenimore, P.W.2    Castillo-Garsow, M.A.3    Castillo-Chavez, C.4
  • 10
    • 33745626761 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: Assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions
    • doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.11.026
    • Chowell, G., Ammon, C. E., Hengartner, N. W. & Hyman, J. M. 2006 Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions. J. Theor. Biol. 241, 193-204. (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.11.026)
    • (2006) J. Theor. Biol , vol.241 , pp. 193-204
    • Chowell, G.1    Ammon, C.E.2    Hengartner, N.W.3    Hyman, J.M.4
  • 11
    • 3142564766 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The analysis of hospital infection data using hidden Markov models
    • doi:10.1093/biostatistics/5.2.223
    • Cooper, B. & Lipsitch, M. 2004 The analysis of hospital infection data using hidden Markov models. Biostatistics 5, 223-237. (doi:10.1093/biostatistics/5.2.223)
    • (2004) Biostatistics , vol.5 , pp. 223-237
    • Cooper, B.1    Lipsitch, M.2
  • 12
    • 85020759824 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Crosby, A. W. 2003 The second and third wave. Part III. Chapter 7. Flu in San Francisco. In America's Forgotten Pandemic 2nd edn. The Influenza of 1918, pp. 91-120. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • Crosby, A. W. 2003 The second and third wave. Part III. Chapter 7. Flu in San Francisco. In America's Forgotten Pandemic 2nd edn. The Influenza of 1918, pp. 91-120. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • 13
    • 85020775592 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Department of Hygiene, Japanese Ministry of Interior. 1922. Chapter 7, Section 2. Epidemic records and preventive methods of influenza in the United States of America In: Influenza (Ryukousei Kanbou), pp. 431-484. Tokyo, Japan: Ministry of Interior.
    • Department of Hygiene, Japanese Ministry of Interior. 1922. Chapter 7, Section 2. Epidemic records and preventive methods of influenza in the United States of America In: Influenza (Ryukousei Kanbou), pp. 431-484. Tokyo, Japan: Ministry of Interior.
  • 15
    • 10044287073 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics
    • doi:10.1073/pnas. 0407293101
    • Dushoff, J., Plotkin, J. B., Levin, S. A. & Earn, D. J. 2004 Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 101, 16 915-16 916. (doi:10.1073/pnas. 0407293101)
    • (2004) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA , vol.101
    • Dushoff, J.1    Plotkin, J.B.2    Levin, S.A.3    Earn, D.J.4
  • 16
    • 84964203940 scopus 로고
    • Bootstrap methods for standard errors, confidence intervals, and other measures of statistical accuracy
    • Efron, B. & Tibshirani, R. 1986 Bootstrap methods for standard errors, confidence intervals, and other measures of statistical accuracy. Stat. Sci. 1, 54-75.
    • (1986) Stat. Sci , vol.1 , pp. 54-75
    • Efron, B.1    Tibshirani, R.2
  • 17
    • 33644822528 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Early determination of the reproduction number for vector-borne diseases: The case of dengue in Brazil
    • doi:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01560.x
    • Favier, C. et al. 2006 Early determination of the reproduction number for vector-borne diseases: the case of dengue in Brazil. Trop. Med. Int. Health 11, 332-340. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01560.x)
    • (2006) Trop. Med. Int. Health , vol.11 , pp. 332-340
    • Favier, C.1
  • 18
  • 19
    • 0023815391 scopus 로고
    • Modelling the 1985 influenza epidemic in France
    • Flahault, A. et al. 1988 Modelling the 1985 influenza epidemic in France. Stat. Med. 7, 1147-1155.
    • (1988) Stat. Med , vol.7 , pp. 1147-1155
    • Flahault, A.1
  • 21
    • 33646374959 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Molecular virology: Was the 1918 pandemic caused by a bird flu?
    • doi:10.1038/nature04823
    • Gibbs, M. J. & Gibbs, A. J. 2006 Molecular virology: Was the 1918 pandemic caused by a bird flu? Nature 440, E8. (doi:10.1038/nature04823)
    • (2006) Nature , vol.440
    • Gibbs, M.J.1    Gibbs, A.J.2
  • 22
    • 33846245483 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting case numbers during infectious disease outbreaks when some cases are undiagnosed
    • In press, doi:10.1002/sim.2523
    • Glass, K., Becker, N. & Clements, M. In press. Predicting case numbers during infectious disease outbreaks when some cases are undiagnosed. Stat. Med. (doi:10.1002/sim.2523)
    • Stat. Med
    • Glass, K.1    Becker, N.2    Clements, M.3
  • 23
    • 0141702339 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Population dynamics of rapid fixation in cytotoxic T lymphocyte escape mutants of influenza A
    • doi:10.1073/pnas.1830296100
    • Gog, J. R., Rimmelzwaan, G. F., Osterhaus, A. D. & Grenfell, B. T. 2003 Population dynamics of rapid fixation in cytotoxic T lymphocyte escape mutants of influenza A. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 100, 11 143-11 147. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1830296100)
    • (2003) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA , vol.100
    • Gog, J.R.1    Rimmelzwaan, G.F.2    Osterhaus, A.D.3    Grenfell, B.T.4
  • 24
    • 0037460207 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The construction and analysis of epidemic trees with reference to the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth outbreak
    • doi:10.1098/rspb.2002.2191
    • Haydon, D. T., Chase-Topping, M., Shaw, D. J., Matthews, L., Friar, J. K., Wilesmith, J. & Woolhouse, M. E. 2003 The construction and analysis of epidemic trees with reference to the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth outbreak. Proc. R. Soc. B 270, 121-127. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2002.2191)
    • (2003) Proc. R. Soc. B , vol.270 , pp. 121-127
    • Haydon, D.T.1    Chase-Topping, M.2    Shaw, D.J.3    Matthews, L.4    Friar, J.K.5    Wilesmith, J.6    Woolhouse, M.E.7
  • 25
    • 32044460132 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Perspectives on the basic reproductive ratio
    • doi:10.1098/rsif.2005.0042
    • Heffernan, J. M., Smith, R. J. & Wahl, L. M. 2005 Perspectives on the basic reproductive ratio. J. R. Soc. Interface 2, 281-293. (doi:10.1098/rsif.2005.0042)
    • (2005) J. R. Soc. Interface , vol.2 , pp. 281-293
    • Heffernan, J.M.1    Smith, R.J.2    Wahl, L.M.3
  • 26
    • 33846892883 scopus 로고
    • The influenza epidemic of 1918-1919 in San Francisco
    • Hrenoff, A. K. 1941 The influenza epidemic of 1918-1919 in San Francisco. The military surgeon 89, 805-811.
    • (1941) The military surgeon , vol.89 , pp. 805-811
    • Hrenoff, A.K.1
  • 27
    • 31344450096 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real-time forecast of multiphase outbreak
    • Hsieh, Y. H. & Cheng, Y. S. 2006 Real-time forecast of multiphase outbreak. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 122, 122-127.
    • (2006) Emerg. Infect. Dis , vol.122 , pp. 122-127
    • Hsieh, Y.H.1    Cheng, Y.S.2
  • 28
    • 0036514779 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Updating the accounts: Global mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" influenza pandemic
    • Johnson, N. P. & Mueller, J. 2002 Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" influenza pandemic. Bull. Hist. Med. 76, 105-115.
    • (2002) Bull. Hist. Med , vol.76 , pp. 105-115
    • Johnson, N.P.1    Mueller, J.2
  • 29
    • 0014691144 scopus 로고
    • Proved viraemia in Asian influenza (Hong Kong variant) during incubation period
    • Khakpour, M., Saidi, A. & Naficy, K. 1969 Proved viraemia in Asian influenza (Hong Kong variant) during incubation period. Br. Med. J. 4, 208-209.
    • (1969) Br. Med. J , vol.4 , pp. 208-209
    • Khakpour, M.1    Saidi, A.2    Naficy, K.3
  • 30
    • 0017599471 scopus 로고
    • Influenza pandemics in perspective
    • doi:10.1001/jama.237.12.1225
    • Kilbourne, E. 1977 Influenza pandemics in perspective. JAMA 237, 1225-1228. (doi:10.1001/jama.237.12.1225)
    • (1977) JAMA , vol.237 , pp. 1225-1228
    • Kilbourne, E.1
  • 31
    • 2142651557 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling infection transmission
    • doi:10.1146/annurev.publhealth.25.102802.124353
    • Koopman, J. 2004 Modeling infection transmission. Annu. Rev. Public Health 25, 303-326. (doi:10.1146/annurev.publhealth.25.102802.124353)
    • (2004) Annu. Rev. Public Health , vol.25 , pp. 303-326
    • Koopman, J.1
  • 32
    • 12444346408 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome
    • doi:10.1126/science.1086616
    • Lipsitch, M. et al. 2003 Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science 300, 1966-1970. (doi:10.1126/science.1086616)
    • (2003) Science , vol.300 , pp. 1966-1970
    • Lipsitch, M.1
  • 33
    • 0035932733 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The dependence of viral parameter estimates on the assumed viral life cycle: Limitations of studies of viral load data
    • doi:10.1098/rspb.2000.1572
    • Lloyd, A. L. 2001 The dependence of viral parameter estimates on the assumed viral life cycle: limitations of studies of viral load data. Proc. R. Soc. B 268, 847-854. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2000.1572)
    • (2001) Proc. R. Soc. B , vol.268 , pp. 847-854
    • Lloyd, A.L.1
  • 34
    • 13844275317 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Strategy for distribution of influenza vaccine to high-risk groups and children
    • doi:10.1093/aje/kwi053
    • Longini Jr, I. M. & Halloran, M. E. 2005 Strategy for distribution of influenza vaccine to high-risk groups and children. Am. J. Epidemiol. 161, 303-306. (doi:10.1093/aje/kwi053)
    • (2005) Am. J. Epidemiol , vol.161 , pp. 303-306
    • Longini Jr, I.M.1    Halloran, M.E.2
  • 35
    • 0019948714 scopus 로고
    • Estimating household and community transmission parameters for influenza
    • Longini Jr, I. M., Koopman, J. S., Monto, A. S. & Fox, J. P. 1982 Estimating household and community transmission parameters for influenza. Am. J. Epidemiol. 115, 736-751.
    • (1982) Am. J. Epidemiol , vol.115 , pp. 736-751
    • Longini Jr, I.M.1    Koopman, J.S.2    Monto, A.S.3    Fox, J.P.4
  • 36
    • 0021710891 scopus 로고
    • Simulation studies of influenza epidemics: Assessment of parameter estimation and sensitivity
    • Longini Jr, I. M., Seaholm, S. K., Ackerman, E., Koopman, J. S. & Monto, A. S. 1984 Simulation studies of influenza epidemics: assessment of parameter estimation and sensitivity. Int. J. Epidemiol. 13, 496-501.
    • (1984) Int. J. Epidemiol , vol.13 , pp. 496-501
    • Longini Jr, I.M.1    Seaholm, S.K.2    Ackerman, E.3    Koopman, J.S.4    Monto, A.S.5
  • 37
    • 23644457957 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Containing pandemic influenza at the source
    • doi:10.1126/science.1115717
    • Longini, I. M. et al. 2005 Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 309, 1083-1087. (doi:10.1126/science.1115717)
    • (2005) Science , vol.309 , pp. 1083-1087
    • Longini, I.M.1
  • 38
    • 18944372181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: The case of the SARS epidemics
    • doi:10.1016/j.mehy.2004.09. 029
    • Massad, E., Burattini, M. N., Lopez, L. F. & Coutinho, F. A. 2005 Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: the case of the SARS epidemics. Med. Hypothesis 65, 17-22. (doi:10.1016/j.mehy.2004.09. 029)
    • (2005) Med. Hypothesis , vol.65 , pp. 17-22
    • Massad, E.1    Burattini, M.N.2    Lopez, L.F.3    Coutinho, F.A.4
  • 39
    • 33646271598 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting epidemics on directed contact networks
    • doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.10.004
    • Meyers, L. A., Newman, M. E. J. & Pourbohloul, B. 2006 Predicting epidemics on directed contact networks. J. Theor. Biol. 240, 400-418. (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.10.004)
    • (2006) J. Theor. Biol , vol.240 , pp. 400-418
    • Meyers, L.A.1    Newman, M.E.J.2    Pourbohloul, B.3
  • 40
    • 11144334667 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza
    • doi:10.1038/ nature03063
    • Mills, C. E., Robins, J. M. & Lipsitch, M. 2004 Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature 432, 904-906. (doi:10.1038/ nature03063)
    • (2004) Nature , vol.432 , pp. 904-906
    • Mills, C.E.1    Robins, J.M.2    Lipsitch, M.3
  • 41
    • 24644431988 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rapid awareness and transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hanoi French Hospital, Vietnam
    • Nishiura, H. et al. 2005 Rapid awareness and transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hanoi French Hospital, Vietnam. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 73, 17-25.
    • (2005) Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg , vol.73 , pp. 17-25
    • Nishiura, H.1
  • 42
    • 33745864325 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmission potential of primary pneumonic plague: Time inhomogeneous evaluation based on historical documents of the transmission network
    • doi:10.1136/jech.2005.042424
    • Nishiura, H., Schwehm, M., Kakehashi, M. & Eichner, M. 2006 Transmission potential of primary pneumonic plague: time inhomogeneous evaluation based on historical documents of the transmission network. J. Epidemiol. Commun. Health 60, 640-645. (doi:10.1136/jech.2005.042424)
    • (2006) J. Epidemiol. Commun. Health , vol.60 , pp. 640-645
    • Nishiura, H.1    Schwehm, M.2    Kakehashi, M.3    Eichner, M.4
  • 43
    • 0030756525 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Viral dynamics of primary viremia and antiretroviral therapy in simian immunodeficiency virus infection
    • Nowak, M. A. et al. 1997 Viral dynamics of primary viremia and antiretroviral therapy in simian immunodeficiency virus infection. J. Virol. 71, 7518-7525.
    • (1997) J. Virol , vol.71 , pp. 7518-7525
    • Nowak, M.A.1
  • 44
    • 0037633098 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Numerical non-identifiability regions of the minimal model of glucose kinetics: Superiority of Bayesian estimation
    • doi: 10.1016/80025-5564(03)00044-0
    • Pillonetto, G., Sparacino, G. & Cobelli, C. 2003 Numerical non-identifiability regions of the minimal model of glucose kinetics: superiority of Bayesian estimation. Math. Biosci. 184, 53-67. (doi: 10.1016/80025-5564(03)00044-0)
    • (2003) Math. Biosci , vol.184 , pp. 53-67
    • Pillonetto, G.1    Sparacino, G.2    Cobelli, C.3
  • 45
    • 0037737947 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • SARS, lay epidemiology, and fear
    • doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(03)13335-1
    • Razum, O., Becher, H., Kapaun, A. & Junghanss, T. 2003 SARS, lay epidemiology, and fear. Lancet 361, 1739-1740. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(03)13335-1)
    • (2003) Lancet , vol.361 , pp. 1739-1740
    • Razum, O.1    Becher, H.2    Kapaun, A.3    Junghanss, T.4
  • 46
    • 12444260277 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions
    • doi:10.1126/science.1086478
    • Riley, S. et al. 2003 Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions. Science 300, 1961-1966. (doi:10.1126/science.1086478)
    • (2003) Science , vol.300 , pp. 1961-1966
    • Riley, S.1
  • 47
    • 26444506691 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Characterization of the 1918 influenza virus polymerase genes
    • doi:10.1038/nature04230
    • Taubenberger, J. K., Reid, A. H., Lourens, R. M., Wang, R., Jin, G. & Fanning, T. G. 2005 Characterization of the 1918 influenza virus polymerase genes. Nature 437, 889-893. (doi:10.1038/nature04230)
    • (2005) Nature , vol.437 , pp. 889-893
    • Taubenberger, J.K.1    Reid, A.H.2    Lourens, R.M.3    Wang, R.4    Jin, G.5    Fanning, T.G.6
  • 49
    • 19944432232 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probable person-to-person transmission of avian influenza A (H5N1)
    • doi:10.1056/NEJMoa044021
    • Ungchusak, K. et al. 2005 Probable person-to-person transmission of avian influenza A (H5N1). New Eng. J. Med. 352, 333-340. (doi:10.1056/NEJMoa044021)
    • (2005) New Eng. J. Med , vol.352 , pp. 333-340
    • Ungchusak, K.1
  • 50
    • 77649279982 scopus 로고
    • Influenza: An epidemiological study
    • Am. J. Hyg
    • Vaughn, W. T. 1921 Influenza: an epidemiological study. Am. J. Hyg. Monograph No. 1.
    • (1921) Monograph , vol.1
    • Vaughn, W.T.1
  • 51
    • 4544318829 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures
    • doi:10.1093/aje/kwh255
    • Wallinga, J. & Teunis, P. 2004 Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures. Am. J. Epidemiol. 160, 509-516. (doi:10.1093/aje/kwh255)
    • (2004) Am. J. Epidemiol , vol.160 , pp. 509-516
    • Wallinga, J.1    Teunis, P.2
  • 52
    • 33747589306 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases
    • doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020174
    • Wearing, H. J., Rohani, P. & Keeling, M. J. 2005 Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases. PLoS Med. 2, c174. (doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020174)
    • (2005) PLoS Med , vol.2
    • Wearing, H.J.1    Rohani, P.2    Keeling, M.J.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.