Disease risk mitigation: The equivalence of two selective mixing strategies on aggregate contact patterns and resulting epidemic spread

Journal of Theoretical Biology

Volumn 363, Issue , 2014, Pages 262-270

  Morin, Benjamin R ^a,b   Perrings, Charles ^a   Levin, Simon ^c   Kinzig, Ann ^a,b  

^a ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Asymptomatic infection; Latent infection

Indexed keywords

DISEASE INCIDENCE; DISEASE SPREAD; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; EPIDEMIOLOGY; HEALTH GEOGRAPHY; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; INFECTIVITY; RISK FACTOR;

ARTICLE; ASYMPTOMATIC INFECTION; DISEASE COURSE; DISEASE MODEL; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; DYNAMICS; EPIDEMIC; HEALTH CARE COST; INCIDENCE; INFECTION RISK; MATHEMATICAL COMPUTING; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK MANAGEMENT; SOCIOECONOMICS; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CONTACT EXAMINATION; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; EPIDEMIOLOGY; HUMAN; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA;

CONTACT TRACING; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; DISEASE TRANSMISSION, INFECTIOUS; EPIDEMIOLOGIC FACTORS; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL;

EID: 84907521671     PISSN: 00225193     EISSN: 10958541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.07.037     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. Arino J., Jordan R., Van den Driessche P. Quarantine in a multi-species epidemic model with spatial dynamics. Math. Biosci. 2007, 206(1):46-60.
2. Blythe S., Castillo-Chavez C., Palmer M. Toward a unified theory of sexual mixing and pair formation. Math. Biosci. 1991, 107(2):379-405.
3. Busenberg S., Castillo-Chávez C. A general solution of the problem of mixing of subpopulations and its application to risk-and age-structured epidemic models for the spread of AIDS. Math. Med. Biol. 1991, 8(1):1.
4. Castillo-Chavez C., Busenberg S., Gerow K. Pair formation in structured populations. Differential Equations with Applications in Biology, Physics and Engineering 1991, 47-65.
5. Castillo-Chavez C., Castillo-Garsow C.W., Yakubu A.-A. Mathematical models of isolation and quarantine. JAMA: J. Am. Med. Assoc. 2003, 290(21):2876-2877.
6. Chan M., Bradley M., Bundy D. Transmission patterns and the epidemiology of hookworm infection. Int. J. Epidemiol. 1997, 26(6):1392-1400.
7. Chowell G., Viboud C., Wang X., Bertozzi S.M., Miller M.A. Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza. Mexico as a case study. PLoS One 2009, 4(12):e8164.
8. Fenichel E.P., Castillo-Chavez C., Ceddia M., Chowell G., Parra P.A.G., Hickling G.J., Holloway G., Horan R., Morin B., Perrings C., et al. Adaptive human behavior in epidemiological models. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2011, 108(15):6306-6311.
9. Fenichel E.P., Wang X. The mechanism and phenomena of adaptive human behavior during an epidemic and the role of information. Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases 2013, 153-168. Springer, New York.
10. Gregson S., Gonese E., Hallett T.B., Taruberekera N., Hargrove J.W., Lopman B., Corbett E.L., Dorrington R., Dube S., Dehne K., et al. HIV decline in Zimbabwe due to reductions in risky sex? Evidence from a comprehensive epidemiological review. Int. J. Epidemiol. 2010, 39(5):1311-1323.
11. Gross T., D'Lima C.J.D., Blasius B. Epidemic dynamics on an adaptive network. Phys. Rev. Lett. 2006, 96(20):208701.
12. Hadeler K. Pair formation. J. Math. Biol. 2012, 64(4):613-645.
13. Herrera-Valdez M., Cruz-Aponte M., Castillo-Chavez C. Multiple outbreaks for the same pandemic. local transportation and social distancing explain the different waves of A-H1N1pdm cases observed in México during 2009. Math. Biosci. Eng. 2011, 8(1):21-48.
14. Hethcote H.W. The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM Rev. 2000, 42(4):599-653.
15. Hyman J.M., Li J. Behavior changes in SIS STD models with selective mixing. SIAM J. Appl. Math. 1997, 57(4):1082-1094.
16. Karlin S., McGregor J. Polymorphisms for genetic and ecological systems with weak coupling. Theor. Popul. Biol. 1972, 3(2):210-238.
17. Khan K., Eckhardt R., Brownstein J.S., Naqvi R., Hu W., Kossowsky D., Scales D., Arino J., MacDonald M., Wang J., et al. Entry and exit screening of airline travellers during the A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic: a retrospective evaluation. Bull. World Health Organ. 2013, 91(5):368-376.
18. Koopman J.S., Simon C.P., Jacquez J.A., Park T.S. Selective contact within structured mixing with an application to HIV transmission risk from oral and anal sex. Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to AIDS Epidemiology 1989, 316-348. Springer, New York.
19. Leach M., Scoones I., Stirling A. Governing epidemics in an age of complexity. narratives, politics and pathways to sustainability. Global Environ. Change 2010, 20(3):369-377.
20. Levin S.A., Segel L.A. Models of the influence of predation on aspect diversity in prey populations. J. Math. Biol. 1982, 14(3):253-284.
21. Mah T.L., Halperin D.T. Concurrent sexual partnerships and the HIV epidemics in Africa. evidence to move forward. AIDS Behav. 2010, 14(1):11-16.
22. Meloni S., Perra N., Arenas A., Gómez S., Moreno Y., Vespignani A. Modeling human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of infectious diseases. Sci. Rep. 2011, 1.
23. Mercer C.H., Copas A.J., Sonnenberg P., Johnson A.M., McManus S., Erens B., Cassell J.A. Who has sex with whom? Characteristics of heterosexual partnerships reported in a national probability survey and implications for STI risk. Int. J. Epidemiol. 2009, 38(1):206-214.
24. Merl D., Johnson L.R., Gramacy R.B., Mangel M. A statistical framework for the adaptive management of epidemiological interventions. PloS One 2009, 4(6):e5807.
25. Morin B.R., Castillo-Chavez C., Hsu Schmitz S.-F., Mubayi A., Wang X. Notes from the heterogeneous. a few observations on the implications and necessity of affinity. J. Biol. Dyn. 2010, 4(5):456-477.
26. Morin B.R., Fenichel E.P., Castillo-Chavez C. SIR dynamics with economically driven contact rates. Nat. Resour. Model. November 2013, 26(4):505-525.
27. Morris M. Concurrent partnerships and syphilis persistence. new thoughts on an old puzzle. Sex. Transm. Dis. 2001, 28(9):504-507.
28. Morris M. Barking up the wrong evidence tree. Comment on Lurie & Rosenthal, concurrent partnerships as a driver of the HIV epidemic in sub-saharan Africa? The evidence is limited. AIDS Behav. 2010, 14(1):31-33.
29. Oster E. Sexually transmitted infections, sexual behavior, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Q. J. Econ. 2005, 120(2):467-515.
30. Plowright R.K., Sokolow S.H., Gorman M.E., Daszak P., Foley J.E. Causal inference in disease ecology. investigating ecological drivers of disease emergence. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2008, 6(8):420-429.
31. Schmitz, S.-F.H., Castillo-Chavez, C., 1994. Parameter estimation in non-closed social networks related to dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases. In: Modeling the AIDS Epidemic: Planning Policy and Prediction. Raven Press Limited, New York.