메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 7, Issue , 2016, Pages

Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; COOLING; GLOBAL WARMING; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

EID: 84999133811     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20411723     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13676     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (47)

References (51)
  • 1
    • 84926664150 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • IPCC. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. & Midgley, P.M.) 1535 (Cambridge University Press)
    • IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. & Midgley, P. M.) 1535 (Cambridge University Press, 2013).
    • (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
  • 2
    • 84933557746 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus
    • Karl, T. R. et al. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus. Science 348, 1469-1472 (2015).
    • (2015) Science , vol.348 , pp. 1469-1472
    • Karl, T.R.1
  • 3
    • 84959304639 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown
    • Fyfe, J. C. et al. Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 224-228 (2016).
    • (2016) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.6 , pp. 224-228
    • Fyfe, J.C.1
  • 5
    • 0038610460 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • IPCC. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noquer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K. & Johnson, C.A.) (Cambridge University Press)
    • IPCC. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noquer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K. & Johnson, C. A.) 881 (Cambridge University Press, 2001).
    • (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis , vol.881
  • 6
    • 36549049375 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • IPCC. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (eds Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. & Miller, H.L.) (Cambridge University Press)
    • IPCC. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (eds Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M. & Miller, H. L.) 996 (Cambridge University Press, 2007).
    • (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis , vol.996
  • 7
    • 33847366663 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500-year temperature reconstruction
    • Hegerl, G. C. et al. Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500-year temperature reconstruction. J. Clim. 20, 650-666 (2007).
    • (2007) J. Clim. , vol.20 , pp. 650-666
    • Hegerl, G.C.1
  • 8
    • 0034708627 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulation of early 20th century global warming
    • Delworth, T. L. & Knutson, T. R. Simulation of early 20th century global warming. Science 287, 2246-2250 (2000).
    • (2000) Science , vol.287 , pp. 2246-2250
    • Delworth, T.L.1    Knutson, T.R.2
  • 9
    • 84883393494 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years
    • Fyfe, J. C., Gillett, N. P. & Zwiers, F. W. Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 767-769 (2013).
    • (2013) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.3 , pp. 767-769
    • Fyfe, J.C.1    Gillett, N.P.2    Zwiers, F.W.3
  • 10
    • 84897585070 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recent observed and simulated warming
    • Fyfe, J. C. & Gillett, N. P. Recent observed and simulated warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 150-151 (2014).
    • (2014) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.4 , pp. 150-151
    • Fyfe, J.C.1    Gillett, N.P.2
  • 11
    • 84906837999 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled
    • Huber, M. & Knutti, R. Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled. Nat. Geosci. 7, 651-656 (2014).
    • (2014) Nat. Geosci. , vol.7 , pp. 651-656
    • Huber, M.1    Knutti, R.2
  • 13
    • 84906875894 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase
    • Risbey, J. S. et al. Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 835-840 (2014).
    • (2014) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.4 , pp. 835-840
    • Risbey, J.S.1
  • 14
    • 84928563050 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robust warming projections despite the recent hiatus
    • England, M. H., Kajtar, J. B. & Maher, N. Robust warming projections despite the recent hiatus. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 394-396 (2015).
    • (2015) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.5 , pp. 394-396
    • England, M.H.1    Kajtar, J.B.2    Maher, N.3
  • 15
    • 84923175254 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming
    • Meehl, G. A., Teng, H. & Arblaster, J. M. Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 898-902 (2014).
    • (2014) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.4 , pp. 898-902
    • Meehl, G.A.1    Teng, H.2    Arblaster, J.M.3
  • 16
    • 84895459450 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature
    • Santer, B. D. et al. Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nat. Geosci. 7, 185-189 (2014).
    • (2014) Nat. Geosci. , vol.7 , pp. 185-189
    • Santer, B.D.1
  • 17
    • 77749264571 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming
    • Solomon, S. et al. Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming. Science 327, 1219 (2010).
    • (2010) Science , vol.327 , pp. 1219
    • Solomon, S.1
  • 18
    • 84908894828 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends
    • Cowtan, K. & Way, R. G. Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. 140, 1935-1944 (2014).
    • (2014) Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.140 , pp. 1935-1944
    • Cowtan, K.1    Way, R.G.2
  • 19
    • 84895429353 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus
    • England, M. et al. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 222-227 (2014).
    • (2014) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.4 , pp. 222-227
    • England, M.1
  • 20
    • 80755161593 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelbased evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods
    • Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. T., Hu, A. & Trenberth, K. E. Modelbased evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nat. Clim. Change 1, 360-364 (2011).
    • (2011) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.1 , pp. 360-364
    • Meehl, G.A.1    Arblaster, J.M.2    Fasullo, J.T.3    Hu, A.4    Trenberth, K.E.5
  • 21
    • 84923054789 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming
    • McGregor, S. et al. Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 888-892 (2014).
    • (2014) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.4 , pp. 888-892
    • McGregor, S.1
  • 22
    • 84959256704 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atlantic induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades
    • Li, X., Xie, S.-P., Gille, S. & Yoo, C. Atlantic induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 275-279 (2016).
    • (2016) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.6 , pp. 275-279
    • Li, X.1    Xie, S.-P.2    Gille, S.3    Yoo, C.4
  • 23
    • 84884410748 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific cooling
    • Kosaka, Y. & Xie, S.-P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific cooling. Nature 501, 403-407 (2013).
    • (2013) Nature , vol.501 , pp. 403-407
    • Kosaka, Y.1    Xie, S.-P.2
  • 24
    • 84906681638 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Varying planetary heat sink led to global warming slowdown and acceleration
    • Chen, X. & Tung, K.-K. Varying planetary heat sink led to global warming slowdown and acceleration. Science 345, 897-903 (2014).
    • (2014) Science , vol.345 , pp. 897-903
    • Chen, X.1    Tung, K.-K.2
  • 25
    • 34548041410 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can the Atlantic Ocean drive the observed multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature?
    • Zhang, R., Delworth, T. L. & Held, I. M. Can the Atlantic Ocean drive the observed multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature? Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L02709 (2007).
    • (2007) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.34 , pp. L02709
    • Zhang, R.1    Delworth, T.L.2    Held, I.M.3
  • 26
    • 84923799643 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures
    • Steinman, B. A., Mann, M. E. & Miller, S. K. Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Science 347, 988-991 (2015).
    • (2015) Science , vol.347 , pp. 988-991
    • Steinman, B.A.1    Mann, M.E.2    Miller, S.K.3
  • 27
    • 84925740757 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming
    • Roberts, C. D., Palmer, M. D., McNeall, D. & Collins, M. Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 337-342 (2015).
    • (2015) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.5 , pp. 337-342
    • Roberts, C.D.1    Palmer, M.D.2    McNeall, D.3    Collins, M.4
  • 28
    • 68749100686 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?
    • Wittenberg, A. T. Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L12702 (2009).
    • (2009) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.36 , pp. L12702
    • Wittenberg, A.T.1
  • 29
    • 84897313933 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global and regional variability in marine surface temperatures
    • Laepple, T. & Huybers, P. Global and regional variability in marine surface temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 2528-2534 (2014).
    • (2014) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.41 , pp. 2528-2534
    • Laepple, T.1    Huybers, P.2
  • 30
    • 84885221470 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multimodel assessment of regional surface temperature trends: CMIP3 and CMIP5 twentieth century simulations
    • Knutson, T. R., Zeng, F. & Wittenberg, A. T. Multimodel assessment of regional surface temperature trends: CMIP3 and CMIP5 twentieth century simulations. J. Clim. 26 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00567.1 (2013).
    • (2013) J. Clim. , vol.26
    • Knutson, T.R.1    Zeng, F.2    Wittenberg, A.T.3
  • 31
    • 84938954088 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming
    • Schurer, A. P., Hegerl, G. C. & Obrochta, S. P. Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 5974-5982 (2015).
    • (2015) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.42 , pp. 5974-5982
    • Schurer, A.P.1    Hegerl, G.C.2    Obrochta, S.P.3
  • 33
    • 84878709250 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Energy budget constraints on climate response
    • Otto, A. et al. Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nat. Geosci. 6, 415-416 (2013).
    • (2013) Nat. Geosci. , vol.6 , pp. 415-416
    • Otto, A.1
  • 34
    • 84932194317 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat update estimates
    • Lewis, N. & Curry, J. A. The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat update estimates. Clim. Dyn. 45, 1009-1023 (2014).
    • (2014) Clim. Dyn. , vol.45 , pp. 1009-1023
    • Lewis, N.1    Curry, J.A.2
  • 35
    • 84989182128 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth
    • Richardson, M., Cowtan, K., Hawkins, E. & Stolpe, M. R. Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 931-935 (2016).
    • (2016) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.6 , pp. 931-935
    • Richardson, M.1    Cowtan, K.2    Hawkins, E.3    Stolpe, M.R.4
  • 36
    • 84962268472 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings
    • Marvel, K., Schmidt, G. A., Miller, R. L. & Nazarenko, L. S. Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 386-389 (2015).
    • (2015) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.6 , pp. 386-389
    • Marvel, K.1    Schmidt, G.A.2    Miller, R.L.3    Nazarenko, L.S.4
  • 37
    • 84933042799 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. & Midgley, P.M.) (Cambridge University Press)
    • Flato, G. et al. in Evaluation of climate models. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. & Midgley, P. M.) (Cambridge University Press, 2013).
    • (2013) Evaluation of Climate Models. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
    • Flato, G.1
  • 38
    • 84879084666 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Could a future "Grand Solar Minimum" like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?
    • Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M. & Marsh, D. R. Could a future "Grand Solar Minimum" like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming? Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 1789-1793 (2013).
    • (2013) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.40 , pp. 1789-1793
    • Meehl, G.A.1    Arblaster, J.M.2    Marsh, D.R.3
  • 39
    • 84962311186 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere
    • Chiodo, G. et al. The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 034015 (2016).
    • (2016) Environ. Res. Lett. , vol.11 , pp. 034015
    • Chiodo, G.1
  • 40
    • 84932637661 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum
    • Ineson, S. et al. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum. Nat. Commun. 6, 7535 (2015).
    • (2015) Nat. Commun. , vol.6 , pp. 7535
    • Ineson, S.1
  • 41
    • 84859615851 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability
    • Booth, B. B. B., Dunstone, N. J., Halloran, P. R., Andrews, T. & Bellouin, N. Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. Nature 484, 228-232 (2012).
    • (2012) Nature , vol.484 , pp. 228-232
    • Booth, B.B.B.1    Dunstone, N.J.2    Halloran, P.R.3    Andrews, T.4    Bellouin, N.5
  • 43
    • 84873417864 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability?
    • Zhang, R. et al. Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability? J. Atmos. Sci. 70, 1135-1144 (2013).
    • (2013) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.70 , pp. 1135-1144
    • Zhang, R.1
  • 44
    • 84941121923 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing
    • Stevens, B. Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing. J. Clim. 28, 4794-4819 (2015).
    • (2015) J. Clim. , vol.28 , pp. 4794-4819
    • Stevens, B.1
  • 45
    • 84912096619 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ocean surface temperature variability: Large model-data differences at decadal and longer periods
    • Laepple, T. & Huybers, P. Ocean surface temperature variability: large model-data differences at decadal and longer periods. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 111, 16682-16687 (2014).
    • (2014) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. , vol.111 , pp. 16682-16687
    • Laepple, T.1    Huybers, P.2
  • 46
    • 70450173156 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions
    • Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 90, 1095-1107 (2009).
    • (2009) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.90 , pp. 1095-1107
    • Hawkins, E.1    Sutton, R.2
  • 47
    • 84943739743 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?
    • Sutton, R., Suckling, E. & Hawkins, E. What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140426 (2015).
    • (2015) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A , vol.373 , pp. 20140426
    • Sutton, R.1    Suckling, E.2    Hawkins, E.3
  • 48
    • 79955044421 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL Global Coupled Model CM3
    • Donner, L. J. et al. The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL Global Coupled Model CM3. J. Clim. 24, 3484-3519 (2011).
    • (2011) J. Clim. , vol.24 , pp. 3484-3519
    • Donner, L.J.1
  • 49
    • 79960287916 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The GFDL CM3 coupled climate model: Characteristics of the ocean and sea ice simulations
    • Griffies, S. M. et al. The GFDL CM3 Coupled Climate Model: characteristics of the ocean and sea ice simulations. J. Clim. 24, 3520-3544 (2011).
    • (2011) J. Clim. , vol.24 , pp. 3520-3544
    • Griffies, S.M.1
  • 50
    • 84859909987 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set
    • Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. & Jones, P. D. Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D08101 (2012).
    • (2012) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.117 , pp. D08101
    • Morice, C.P.1    Kennedy, J.J.2    Rayner, N.A.3    Jones, P.D.4
  • 51
    • 78649286836 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global surface temperature change
    • Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M. & Lo, K. Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004 (2010).
    • (2010) Rev. Geophys. , vol.48 , pp. RG4004
    • Hansen, J.1    Ruedy, R.2    Sato, M.3    Lo, K.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.