Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled

Nature Geoscience

Volumn 7, Issue 9, 2014, Pages 651-656

  Huber, Markus ^a   Knutti, Reto ^a  

^a Land Climate Dynamics Group   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84906837999     PISSN: 17520894     EISSN: 17520908     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2228     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. IPCC in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
2. Kosaka, Y. &Xie, S. P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501, 403-407 (2013).
3. Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. T., Hu, A. X. &Trenberth, K. E. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Clim. Change 1, 360-364 (2011).
4. Meehl, G. A., Hu, A. X., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. &Trenberth, K. E. Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. J. Clim. 26, 7298-7310 (2013).
5. Solomon, S. et al. The persistently variable Background' stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change. Science 333, 866-870 (2011).
6. Santer, B. D. et al. Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nature Geosci. 7, 185-189 (2014).
7. Fyfe, J. C., von Salzen, K., Cole, J. N. S., Gillett, N. P. &Vernier, J. P. Surface response to stratospheric aerosol changes in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 584-588 (2013).
8. Lewis, N. An objective Bayesian, improved approach for applying optimal fingerprint techniques to estimate climate sensitivity. J. Clim. 26, 7414-7249 (2013).
9. Aldrin, M. et al. Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperatures and global ocean heat content. Environmetrics 23, 253-271 (2012).
10. Cowtan, K. &Way, R. G. Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2297 (2014).
11. Schmidt, G. A., Shindell, D. T. &Tsigaridis, K. Reconciling warming trends. Nature Geosci. 7, 158-160 (2014).
12. Rahmstorf, S., Foster, G. &Cazenave, A. Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 044035 (2012).
13. England, M. H. et al. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Clim. Change 4, 222-227 (2014).
14. Trenberth, K. E. &Fasullo, J. T. An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earth's Future 1, 19-32 (2013).
15. Frohlich, C. Total solar irradiance observations. Surv. Geophys. 33, 453-473 (2012).
16. Otto, A. et al. Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nature Geosci. 6, 415-416 (2013).
17. Gillett, N. P., Arora, V. K., Flato, G. M., Scinocca, J. F. &von Salzen, K. Improved constraints on 21st-century warming derived using 160 years of temperature observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L01704 (2012).
18. Knutti, R. &Hegerl, G. C. The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes. Nature Geosci. 1, 735-743 (2008).
19. Hansen, J. et al. E-cacy of climate forcings. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D18104 (2005).
20. Shindell, D. T. Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity. Nature Clim. Change 4, 274-277 (2014).
21. Thompson, D.W. J.,Wallace, J. M., Jones, P. D. &Kennedy, J. J. Identifying signatures of natural climate variability in time series of global-mean surface temperature: Methodology and insights. J. Clim. 22, 6120-6141 (2009).
22. Fischer, E. M., Beyerle, U. &Knutti, R. Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes. Nature Clim. Change 3, 1033-1038 (2013).
23. Huber, M. &Knutti, R. Anthropogenic and natural warming inferred from changes in Earth's energy balance. Nature Geosci. 5, 31-36 (2012).
24. Stott, P., Good, P., Jones, G., Gillett, N. &Hawkins, E. The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 014024 (2013).
25. Collins, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1029-1136 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
26. Meinshausen, M. et al. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change 109, 213-241 (2011).
27. Stocker, T. F.,Wright, D. G. &Mysak, L. A. A zonally averaged, coupled ocean atmosphere model for paleoclimate studies. J. Clim. 5, 773-797 (1992).
28. Lean, J. L. &Rind, D. H. How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades? Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L15708 (2009).
29. Levitus, S. et al.World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0-2000 m), 1955-2010. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L10603 (2012).
30. Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. &Jones, P. D. Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D08101 (2012).