Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

Geosciences (Switzerland)

Volumn 6, Issue 3, 2016, Pages

  Keeley, Jon E ^a,b   Syphard, Alexandra D ^c  

^a U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c Conservation Biology Institute ^*  (United States)

Author keywords

Drought; Forest change; Fuel moisture; Global warming; Management; Novel ecosystems; Snowpack

Indexed keywords

EID: 84993958667     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20763263     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3390/geosciences6030037     Document Type: Review

References (77)

1. Bond, W.J.; Woodward, F.I.; Midgley, G.F. The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire. New Phytol. 2005, 165, 525-538. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
2. Krawchuk, M.A.; Moritz, M.A.; Parisien, M-A.; Van Dorn, J.; Hayhoe, K. Global pyrogeography: The current and future distribution of wildfire. PLoS ONE 2009, 4, e5102. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
3. Van Mantgem, E.F.; Keeley, J.E.; Witter, M. Faunal responses to fire in California chaparral and sage scrub in California, USA. Fire Ecol. 2015, 11, 128-148.
4. Keeley, J.E.; Syphard, A.D. Different fire-climate relationships on forested and non-forested landscapes in the Sierra Nevada ecoregion. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2015, 24, 27-36. [CrossRef]
5. Westerling, A.L. Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: Sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring. Philophical Trans. R. Soc. B 2016, 371. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
6. Westerling, A.L.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Cayan, D.R.; Swetnam, T.W. Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science 2006, 313, 940-943. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
7. Barbero, R.; Abatzoglou, J.T.; Larkin, N.K.; Kolden, C.A.; Stocks, B. Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States. Int.J. Wildland Fire 2015, 24, 892-899. [CrossRef]
8. Keeley, J.E.; Syphard, A.D. Historical fire-climate patterns in California climate divisions. Int. J. Wildland Fire Rev. 2016. under review.
9. Swetnam, T.W.; Betancourt, J.L. Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest. J. Clim. 1998, 11, 3128-3147. [CrossRef]
10. Power, M.J.; Marlon, J.; Ortiz, N.; Bartlein, N.J.; Harrison, S.P.; Mayle, F.E.; Ballouche, A.; Bradshaw, R.H.W.; Carcaillet, C.; Cordova, C. Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: An assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data. Clim. Dyn. 2008, 30, 887-907. [CrossRef]
11. Taylor, A.H.; Beaty, R.M. Climatic influences on fire regiems in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains, Lake Tahoe Basin, Nevada, USA. J. Biogeogr. 2005, 32, 425-438. [CrossRef]
12. Collins, B.M.; Omi, P.N.; Chapman, P.L. Regional relationships between climate and wildfire-burned area in the Interior west, USA. Can. J. For. Res. 2006, 36, 699-709. [CrossRef]
13. Swetnam, T.W.; Anderson, R.S. Fire climatology in the western United States: introduction to special issue. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2008, 17, 1-7. [CrossRef]
14. Littell, J.S.; Peterson, D.L.; Riley, K.L.; Liu, Y.; Luce, C.H. A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2016. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
15. Littell, J.S.; McKenzie, D.; Peterson, D.L.; Westerling, A.L. Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003. Ecol. Appl. 2009, 19, 1003-1021. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
16. Abatzoglou, J.T.; Kolden, C.A. Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2013, 22, 1003-1020. [CrossRef]
17. Westerling, A.; Brown, T.; Schoennagel, T.; Swetnam, T.; Turner, M.; Veblen, T. Briefing: Climate and Wildfire in Western U.S. Forests; US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: Logan, UT, USA, 2014; pp. 81-102.
18. Westerling, A.L.; Gershunov, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Barnett, T.P. Long lead statistical forecasts of area burned in western U.S. wildfires by ecosystems province. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2002, 11, 257-266. [CrossRef]
19. Crimmins, M.A.; Comrie, A.C. Interactions between antecedent climate and wildfire variability across south-eastern Arizona. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2011, 13, 455-466. [CrossRef]
20. Medler, M.J.; Montesano, P.; Robinson, D. Examining the relationship between snowfall and wildfire patterns in the western United States. Phys. Geogr. 2002, 23, 335-342. [CrossRef]
21. Moritz, M.A.; Parisien, M-A.; Batllorei, E.; Krawchuk, M.A.; Van Dorn, J.; Ganz, D.J.; Hayhoe, K. Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity. Ecosphere 2012, 3, 49. [CrossRef]
22. Jolly, W.M.; Cochrane, M.A.; Freeborn, P.H.; Holden, Z.A.; Brown, T.J.; Williamson, G.J.; Bowman, M.J.S. Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979-2013. Nat. Commun. 2015. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
23. McKenzie, D.; Gedalof, Z.; Peterson, D.L.; Mote, P. Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conserv. Biol. 2004, 18, 890-902. [CrossRef]
24. Flato, F.; Marotzke, J.; Abiodun, B.; Braconnot, P.; Chou, S.C.; Collins, W.; Driouech, F.; Emori, S.; Eyring, V.; Forest, C.; et al. Evaluation of climate models. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis; IPCC Working Group I Contribution to AR5; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2013.
25. Solomon, S.; Plattner, G.-K.; Knutti, R.; Friedlingstein, P. Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2009, 106, 1704-1709. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
26. Flannigan, M.D.; Krawchuk, M.A.; de Groot,W.J.;Wotton, B.M.; Gowman, L.M. Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2009, 18, 483-507. [CrossRef]
27. Batllori, E.; Parisien, M.A.; Krawchuk, M.A.; Moritz, M.A. Climate change-induced shifts in fire for Mediterranean ecosystems. Glob. Ecol. Beogeogr. 2013, 22, 1118-1129. [CrossRef]
28. Yue, X.; Mickley, L.J.; Logan, J.A. Projection of wildfire activity in southern California in the mid-twenty-first century. Clim. Dyn. 2014, 43, 1973-1991. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
29. Liu, Z.; Wimberly, M.C. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States. Sci. Total Environ. 2016, 542, 65-75. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
30. Moritz, M.A.; Knowles, S.G. Coexisting with wildfire. Am. Sci. 2016, 104, 220. [CrossRef]
31. Keeley, J.E.; Safford, H.D. Fire as an ecosystem process. In Ecosystems of California; Mooney, H., Zavaleta, E., Eds.; University of California Press: Oakland, CA, USA, 2016; pp. 27-45.
32. Peterson, D.L.; (U.S. Forest Service and University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA). Personal communication, 2016.
33. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) California Climate Divisions. Available online: https://www.ncdc. noaa.gov/monitoring-references/maps/us-climate-divisions.php (accessed on 15 August 2016).
34. Abatzoglou, J.T.; Redmond, K.T.; Edwards, L.M. Classification of regional climate variability in the State of California. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 2009, 48, 1527-1541. [CrossRef]
35. Christy, J.R.; Norris,W.B.; Redmond, K.; Gallo, K.P. Methodology and results of calculating central California surface temperature trends: Evidence of human-induced climate change? J. Clim. 2006, 19, 548-563. [CrossRef]
36. Pausas, J.G.; Paula, S. Fuel shapes the fire-climate relationship: evidence from Mediterranean ecosystems. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2012, 21, 1074-1082. [CrossRef]
37. Steel, Z.L.; Safford, H.D.; Viers, J.H. The fire frequency-severity relationship and the legacy of fire suppression in California forests. Ecosphere 2015, 6. [CrossRef]
38. Keeley, J.E.; Syphard, A.D. South coast bioregion. In Fire in California’s Ecosystems, 2nd ed.; Van Wagtendonk, J., Ed.; University of California Press: Oakland, CA, USA, 2016; in press.
39. Williams, A.P.; Seager, R.; Abatzoglou, J.T.; Cook, B.I.; Smerdon, J.E.; Cook, E.R. Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2014. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2015, 42. [CrossRef]
40. Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Das, T.; Maurer, E.P.; Miller, N.L.; Bao, Y.; Kanamitsu, M.; Yoshimura, K.; Snyder, M.A.; Sloan, L.C.; et al. The key role of heavy precipitation events in climate model disagreements of future annual precipitation changes in California. J. Clim. 2013, 26, 5879-5896. [CrossRef]
41. Neelin, J.D.; Langenbrunner, B.; Meyerson, J.E.; Hall, A.; Berg, H. California winter precipitation change under global warming in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 ensemble. J. Clim. 2013, 26, 6238-6256. [CrossRef]
42. Fellows, A.W.; Goulden, M.L. Rapid vegetation redistribution in southern California during the early 2000s drought. J. Geophys. Res. 2012, 117, G03025. [CrossRef]
43. Iacobellis, S.F.; Cayan, D.R. The variability of California summertime marine stratus: Impacts on surface air temperatures. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2013, 118, 9105-9122. [CrossRef]
44. Allen, C.D.; Breshears, D.D.; McDowell, N.G. On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene. Ecosphere 2015, 6, 1-55. [CrossRef]
45. Overpeck, J.T. Climate science: The challenge of hot drought. Nature 2013, 503, 350-351. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
46. Van Mantgem, P.J.; Nesmith, J.C.B.; Keifer, M.B.; Knapp, E.E.; Flint, A.; Flint, L. Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States. Ecol. Lett. 2013, 16, 1151-1156. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
47. Ficklin, D.L.; Abatzoglou, J.T.; Robeson, S.M.; Dufficy, A. The influence of climate model biases on projections of aridity and drought. J. Clim. 2016, 29, 1269-1285. [CrossRef]
48. Higuera, P.E.; Abatzoglou, J.T.; Littell, J.S.; Morgan, P. The changing strength and nature of fire-climate relationships in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, 1902-2008. PLoS ONE 2015, 10, e0127563. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
49. Williams, J.W.; Jackson, S.T. Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2007, 5, 475-482. [CrossRef]
50. Williams, J.W.; Jackson, S.T.; Kutzbach, J.E. Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2006, 104, 5738-5742. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
51. Dugan, A.J.; Baker, W.L. Sequentially contingent fires, droughts and pluvials structured a historical dry forest landscape and suggest future contingencies. J. Veg. Sci. 2015, 26, 297-710. [CrossRef]
52. Parks, S.A.; Miller, C.; Abatzoglou, J.T.; Holsinger, L.M.; Parisien, M-A.; Dobrowski, S.Z. How will climate change affect wildland fire severity in the western US? Environ. Res. Lett. 2016, 11, 035002. [CrossRef]
53. Stephenson, N.L. Climatic control of vegetation distribution: The role of the water balance. Am. Nat. 1990, 135, 649-670. [CrossRef]
54. Franklin, J.; Serra-Diaz, J.M.; Syphard, A.D.; Regan, H.M. Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2016, 113, 3725-3734. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
55. Lenihan, J.M.; Drapek, R.; Bachelet, D.; Neilson, R.P. Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California. Ecol. Appl. 2003, 13, 1667-1681. [CrossRef]
56. Bowman, D.M.J.S.; Balch, J.K.; Artaxo, P.; Bond, W.J.; Carlson, J.M.; Cochrane, M.A.; D’Antonio, C.M.; DeFries, R.S.; Doyle, J.C.; Harrison, S.P.; et al. Fire in the earth system. Science 2009, 324, 481-484. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
57. McKenzie, D.; Littell, J.S. Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: will area burned increase in a warming western U.S.? Ecol. Appli. 2016, 26. in press.
58. Sturtevant, B.R.; Scheller, R.M.; Miranda, B.R.; Shinneman, D.; Syphard, A.D. Simulating dynamic and mixed-severity fire regimes: A process-based fire extension for LANDIS-II. Ecol. Model. 2009, 220, 3380-3393. [CrossRef]
59. Global. Vegetation Dynamics: Concepts and Applications in MC1 Model; Bachelet, D., Turner, D., Eds.; John Wiley & Sons: Hoboken, NJ, USA, 2010.
60. Keane, R.E.; McKenzie, D.; Falk, D.A.; Smithwick, E.A.H.; Miller, C.; Kellogg, L.-K.B. Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models. Ecol. Model. 2015, 309, 33-47. [CrossRef]
61. Loehle, C.; Idso, C.; Wigley, T.B. Physiological and ecological factors influencing recent trends in United States forest health responses to climate change. For. Ecol. Manag. 2016, 363, 179-189. [CrossRef]
62. Charney, N.D.; Babst, F.; Poulter, B.; Record, S.; Trouet, V.M.; Frank, D.; Enquist, B.J.; Evans, M.E.K. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth. Ecol. Lett. 2016. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
63. 2fertilization. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2015, 6, 306-310. [CrossRef]
64. Moritz, M.A.; Batllori, E.; Bradstock, R.A.; Gill, A.M.; Handmer, J.; Hessburg, P.F.; Leonard, J.; McCaffrey, S.; Odion, D.C.; Schoennagel, T.; et al. Learning to coexist with wilfire. Nature 2014, 515, 58-66. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
65. Radeloff, V.C.; Williams, J.W.; Bateman, B.L.; Burke, K.D.; Carter, S.K.; Childress, E.S.; Cromwell, K.J.; Gratton, C.; Hasley, A.O.; Kraemer, B.M.; et al. The rise of novelty in ecosystems. Ecol. Appl. 2015, 25, 2051-2068. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
66. Hessl, A.E. Pathways for climate change effects on fire: Models, data, and uncertainties. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 2011, 35, 393-407. [CrossRef]
67. Mann, M.L.; Batlori, E.; Moritz, M.A.;Waller, E.K.; Berck, P.; Flint, A.L.; Flint, L.E.; Dojfi, E. Fire probability models: effects of human activity and climate change on fire activity in California. PLoS ONE 2016. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
68. Gude, P.; Rasker, R.; Van den Noort, J. Potential for future development on fire-prone lands. J. For. 2008, 106, 198-205.
69. Syphard, A.D.; Keeley, J.E. Location, timing and extent of wildfire vary by cause of ignition. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2015, 24, 37-47. [CrossRef]
70. Hawbaker, T.J.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hammer, R.B.; Keuler, N.S.; Clayton, M.K. Human and biophysical influences on fire occurrence in the United States. Ecol. Appl. 2013, 23, 565-582. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
71. Faivre, N.; Jin, Y.; Goulden, M.L.; Randerson, J.T. Controls on the spatial pattern of wildfire ignitions in southern California. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2014, 23, 799-811. [CrossRef]
72. Fule, P.Z.; Yocom, L.L.; Montano, C.C.; Falk, D.A.; Cerano, J.; Villanueva-Diaz, J. Testing a pyroclimatic hypothesis on the Mexico-United States border. Ecology 2012, 93, 1830-1840. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
73. Hurteau, M.D.; Bradford, J.B.; Fule, P.Z.; Taylor, A.H.; Martin, K.L. Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US. For. Ecol. Manag. 2014, 327, 280-289. [CrossRef]
74. Van Mantgem, P.J.; Caprio, A.C.; Stephenson, N.L.; Das, A.J. Does prescribed fire promote resistance to drought in low elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA? Fire Ecol. 2016, 12, 13-25.
75. Miller, J.D.; Skinner, C.N.; Safford, H.D.; Knapp, E.E.; Ramirez, C.M. Trends and causes of severity, size and number of fires in northwestern California, USA. Ecol. Appl. 2012, 22, 184-203. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
76. Cermak, R.W. Fire in Forest; A History Forest Fire Control on National Forests in California, 1898-1956; USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region: Albany, CA, USA, 2005.
77. Brotons, L.; Aquilue, N.; de Caceres, M.; Fortin, M.-J.; Fall, A. How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes. PLoS ONE 2013, 8, e62392. [CrossRef] [PubMed]