Uncertainty in canola phenology modelling induced by cultivar parameterization and its impact on simulated yield

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Volumn 232, Issue , 2017, Pages 163-175

  He, Di ^a,b   Wang, Enli ^b   Wang, Jing ^a   Lilley, Julianne ^b   Luo, Zhongkui ^b   Pan, Xuebiao ^a   Pan, Zhihua ^a   Yang, Ning ^c  

^a CHINA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b CSIRO   (Australia)

^c Beijing Meteorological Science and Technology Service Center   (China)

Author keywords

APSIM canola; Equifinality; Parameter uncertainty; Photoperiod; Vernalisation

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL MODELING; CANOLA; CROP YIELD; CULTIVAR; PARAMETERIZATION; PHENOLOGY; PHOTOPERIOD; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; VERNALIZATION;

CHINA;

BRASSICA NAPUS VAR. NAPUS;

EID: 84989924139     PISSN: 01681923     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.08.013     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Rosenzweig, C., et al. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 3 (2013), 827–832.
2. Bassu, S., Brisson, N., Durand, J.L., et al. How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?. Global Change Biol. 20 (2014), 2301–2320.
3. BirunAra, A., Shekari, F., Hassanpouraghdam, M.B., Khorshidi, M.B., Esfandyari, E., Effects of water deficit stress on yield, yield components and phenology of canola (Brassica napus L.) at different growth stages. J. Food Agric. Environ. 9 (2011), 506–509.
4. Black, J.N., Bonython, C.W., Prescott, J.A., Solar radiation and the duration of sunshine. Q. J. R. Meteorolog. Soc. 80 (1954), 231–235.
5. Christy, B., O'Leary, G., Riffkin, P., Acuna, T., Potter, T., Clough, A., Long-season canola (Brassica napus L.) cultivars offer potential to substantially increase grain yield production in south-eastern Australia compared with current spring cultivars. Crop Pasture Sci. 64 (2013), 901–913.
6. FAO, 2015. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Statistic data base. http://faostat3.fao.org/.
7. Fargione, J., Hill, J., Tilman, D., Polasky, S., Hawthorne, P., Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt. Science 319 (2008), 1235–1238.
8. Hammer, G., Messina, C., van Oosterom, E., et al. Molecular breeding for complex adaptive traits: how integrating crop ecophysiology and modelling can enhance efficiency. Crop Systems Biology, 2016, Springer International Publishing, 147–162.
9. He, J., Le Gouis, J., Stratonovitch, P., et al. Simulation of environmental and genotypic variations of final leaf number and anthesis date for wheat. Eur. J. Agron. 42 (2012), 22–33.
10. Holzworth, D.P., Huth, N.I., deVoil, P.G., et al. APSIM – evolution towards a new generation of agricultural systems simulation. Environ. Modell. Softw. 62 (2014), 327–350.
11. Liao, G., Guan, C., The simulation analysis of relationship between seeding date and growth-development characters and seed yield formation of Xiangnongyou571. J. Hunan Agric. Univ. (Nat. Sci.) 27 (2001), 17–20 (in Chinese).
12. Lilley, J.M., Bell, L.W., Kirkegaard, J.A., Optimising grain yield and grazing potential of crops across Australia's high-rainfall zone: a simulation analysis. 2. Canola. Crop Pasture Sci. 66 (2015), 349–364.
13. Liu, Y., Wang, E., Yang, X., Wang, J., Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain, since 1980. Global Change Biol. 16 (2010), 2287–2299.
14. Liu, L., Wang, E., Zhu, Y., Tang, L., Cao, W., Effects of warming and autonomous breeding on the phenological development and grain yield of double-rice systems in China. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 165 (2013), 28–38.
15. Liu, Z., Study on Sowing Date Effect on Development of Rapeseed (Brassica Napus L.), Master Thesis. 2008, Huazhong Agriculture University, China (in Chinese).
16. Luo, Z., Wang, E., Zheng, H., Baldock, J.A., Sun, O.J., Shao, Q., Convergent modelling of past soil organic carbon stocks but divergent projections. Biogeosciences 12 (2015), 4373–4383.
17. Menzel, A., Sparks, T.H., Estrella, N., et al. European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Global Change Biol. 12 (2006), 1969–1976.
18. Ritchie, J.T., Nesmith, D.S., Temperature and crop development. Agronomy Monograph, Modeling Plant and Soil Systems, vol. 31, 1991, American Society of Agronomy Press, 5–29.
19. Robertson, M.J., Lilley, J.M., Simulation of growth, development and yield of canola (Brassica napus) in APSIM. Crop Pasture Sci. 67 (2016), 332–344.
20. Robertson, M.J., Holland, J.F., Kirkegaard, J.A., Smith, C.J., Simulation growth and development of canola in Australia. 10th International Rapeseed Congress, Canberra, 1999.
21. Robertson, M.J., Watkinson, A.R., Kirkegaard, J.A., et al. Environmental and genotypic control of time to flowering in canola and Indian mustard. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 53 (2002), 793–809.
22. Rondanini, D.P., Gomez, N.V., Agosti, M.B., Miralles, D.J., Global trends of rapeseed grain yield stability and rapeseed-to-wheat yield ratio in the last four decades. Eur. J. Agron. 37 (2012), 56–65.
23. Shabani, A., Sepaskhah, A.R., Kamgar-Haghighi, A.A., Growth and physiologic response of rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) to deficit irrigation, water salinity and planting method. Int. J. Plant Prod. 7 (2013), 569–596.
24. Shen, J., Wang, J., Xu, H., Pan, X., Li, J., Gao, H., Effect of sowing time on growth, development, yield and water use efficiency of spring rape in agro-pastoral ecotone. J. Northwest A. & F. Univ., 2013, 64 (in Chinese).
25. Tang, L., Study on Rapeseed Growth Simulation and Decision Support System. PhD Thesis. 2006, Nanjing Agriculture University, China (in Chinese).
26. Tesfamariam, E.H., Annandale, J.G., Steyn, J.M., Water stress effects on winter canola growth and yield. Agron. J. 102 (2010), 658–666.
27. Wang, E., Engel, T., Simulation of phenological development of wheat crops. Agric. Syst. 58 (1998), 1–24.
28. Wang, S., Wang, E., Wang, F., Tang, L., Phenological development and grain yield of canola as affected by sowing date and climate variation in the Yangtze River Basin of China. Crop Pasture Sci. 63 (2012), 478–488.
29. Wang, J., Wang, E., Feng, L., Yin, H., Yu, W., Phenological trends of winter wheat in response to varietal and temperature changes in the North China Plain. Field Crops Res. 144 (2013), 135–144.
30. Wang, J., Wang, E., Yin, H., Feng, L., Zhao, Y., Differences between observed and calculated solar radiations and their impact on simulated crop yields. Field Crops Res. 176 (2015), 1–10.
31. Wang, N., Wang, J., Wang, E., Yu, Q., Shi, Y., He, D., Increased uncertainty in simulated maize phenology with more frequent supra-optimal temperature under climate warming. Eur. J. Agron. 71 (2015), 19–33.
32. Xie, Y., Effect of sowing time on growth and yield of spring canola in Tianzhu County. Gansu Agric. Sci. Technol. 4 (2012), 17–18 (in Chinese).
33. Yang, N., Climate Sensitivity and Adaptation Flexibility for Five Dominant Crops in Agro-pastoral Ecotone in Inner Mongolia. PhD Thesis. 2014, China Agricultural University, China (in Chinese).
34. Zeleke, K.T., Luckett, D.J., Cowley, R.B., The influence of soil water conditions on canola yields and production in Southern Australia. Agric. Water Manage. 144 (2014), 20–32.