Personalized prediction of psychosis: External validation of the NAPLS-2 psychosis risk calculator with the EDIPPP project

American Journal of Psychiatry

Volumn 173, Issue 10, 2016, Pages 989-996

  Carrión, Ricardo E ^a   Cornblatt, Barbara A ^a   Burton, Cynthia Z ^a   Tso, Ivy F ^a   Auther, Andrea M ^a   Adelsheim, Steven ^a   Calkins, Roderick ^a   Carter, Cameron S ^a   Niendam, Tara ^a   Sale, Tamara G ^a   Taylor, Stephan F ^a   McFarlane, William R ^a  

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; AGE; AREA UNDER THE CURVE; BEHAVIOR; COGNITION ASSESSMENT; DISCRIMINATION PERFORMANCE; FAMILY HISTORY; FEMALE; FOLLOW UP; HIGH RISK PATIENT; HUMAN; INSTRUMENT VALIDATION; LEARNING TEST; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MENTAL DISEASE ASSESSMENT; MENTAL PERFORMANCE; NAPLS 2 PSYCHOSIS RISK CALCULATOR; PREDICTION; PREDICTOR VARIABLE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PSYCHOSIS; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC; REVIEW; RISK ASSESSMENT; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; SOCIAL INTERACTION; STRUCTURED INTERVIEW; SUSPICIOUSNESS; SYMBOL CODING; UNUSUAL THOUGHT; ADULT; CHILD; CLINICAL TRIAL; EARLY DIAGNOSIS; LONGITUDINAL STUDY; MULTICENTER STUDY; PREDICTIVE VALUE; PRODROMAL SYMPTOM; PSYCHOLOGICAL MODEL; PSYCHOLOGICAL RATING SCALE; PSYCHOTIC DISORDERS; RISK FACTOR; VALIDATION STUDY; YOUNG ADULT;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; CHILD; EARLY DIAGNOSIS; FEMALE; HUMANS; LONGITUDINAL STUDIES; MALE; MODELS, PSYCHOLOGICAL; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; PRODROMAL SYMPTOMS; PSYCHIATRIC STATUS RATING SCALES; PSYCHOTIC DISORDERS; RISK FACTORS; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84988842527     PISSN: 0002953X     EISSN: 15357228     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1176/appi.ajp.2016.15121565     Document Type: Review

References (48)

1. SnidermanAD,D'AgostinoRBSr, PencinaMJ:Therole of physicians in the era of predictive analytics. JAMA 2015; 314:25-26
2. Moons KG, Royston P, Vergouwe Y, et al: Prognosis and prognostic research: what, why, and how? BMJ 2009; 338:b375
3. D'Agostino RB Sr, Pencina MJ, Massaro JM, et al: Cardiovascular disease risk assessment: insights from Framingham. Glob Heart 2013; 8:11-23
4. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C: Development and validation of risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of common cancers in men and women: prospective cohort study. BMJ Open 2015; 5: e007825
5. NamRK, Toi A, Klotz LH, et al: Assessing individual risk for prostate cancer. J Clin Oncol 2007; 25:3582-3588
6. Wells BJ, Kattan MW, Cooper GS, et al: Colorectal cancer predicted risk online (CRC-PRO) calculator using data from the multi-ethnic cohort study. J Am Board Fam Med 2014; 27:42-55
7. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Robson J, et al: Predicting risk of type 2 diabetes in England and Wales: prospective derivation and validation of QDScore. BMJ 2009; 338:b880
8. LindströmJ, Tuomilehto J:Thediabetes risk score: a practical tool to predict type 2 diabetes risk. Diabetes Care 2003; 26:725-731
9. Ridker PM, Buring JE, Rifai N, et al: Development and validation of improved algorithms for the assessment of global cardiovascular risk in women: the Reynolds Risk Score. JAMA 2007; 297:611-619
10. RidkerPM,Paynter NP, Rifai N, et al: C-reactive proteinand parental history improve global cardiovascular risk prediction: the Reynolds Risk Score for men. Circulation 2008; 118:2243-2251
11. Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB Sr, Larson MG, et al: Predicting the 30-year risk of cardiovascular disease: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation 2009; 119:3078-3084
12. Insel TR: Assessing the economic costs of serious mental illness. Am J Psychiatry 2008; 165:663-665
13. Fusar-Poli P, Borgwardt S, Bechdolf A, et al: The psychosis high-risk state: a comprehensive state-of-the-art review. JAMA Psychiatry 2013; 70:107-120
14. Cannon TD, Cadenhead K, Cornblatt B, et al: Prediction of psychosis in youth at high clinical risk: a multisite longitudinal study in North America. Arch Gen Psychiatry 2008; 65:28-37
15. Nelson B,YuenHP,WoodSJ, et al: Long-term follow-up of a group at ultra high risk ("prodromal") for psychosis: the PACE 400 study. JAMA Psychiatry 2013; 70:793-802
16. Ruhrmann S, Schultze-Lutter F, Salokangas RK, et al: Prediction of psychosis in adolescents and young adults at high risk: results from the prospective European prediction of psychosis study. Arch Gen Psychiatry 2010; 67:241-251
17. Cornblatt BA, Carrión RE, Auther A, et al: Psychosis prevention: a modified clinical high risk perspective from the Recognition and Prevention (RAP) program. Am J Psychiatry 2015; 172:986-994
18. Perkins DO, Jeffries CD, Cornblatt BA, et al: Severity of thought disorder predicts psychosis in persons at clinical high-risk. Schizophr Res 2015; 169:169-177
19. Michel C, Ruhrmann S, Schimmelmann BG, et al: A stratified model for psychosis prediction in clinical practice. Schizophr Bull 2014; 40: 1533-1542
20. Cannon TD, Yu C, Addington J, et al: An individualized risk calculator for research in prodromal psychosis. Am J Psychiatry 2016; 173:980-988
21. Addington J, Cadenhead KS, Cornblatt BA, et al: North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 2): overview and recruitment. Schizophr Res 2012; 142:77-82
22. McGinn TG, Guyatt GH, Wyer PC, et al: Users' guides to the medical literature, XXII: how to use articles about clinical decision rules. JAMA 2000; 284:79-84
23. McFarlane WR, Stastny P, Deakins S: Family-aided assertive community treatment: a comprehensive rehabilitation and intensive case management approach for persons with schizophrenic disorders. New Dir Ment Health Serv 1992; spring (53):43-54
24. Fjell A, Bloch Thorsen GR, Friis S, et al: Multifamily group treatment in a program for patients with first-episode psychosis: experiences from the TIPS project. Psychiatr Serv 2007; 58:171-173
25. McFarlane WR, Levin B, Travis L, et al: Clinical and functional outcomes after 2 years in the early detection and intervention for the prevention of psychosis multisite effectiveness trial. Schizophr Bull 2015; 41:30-43
26. McFarlane WR, Cook WL, Downing D, et al: Early detection, intervention, and prevention of psychosis program: rationale, design, and sample description. Adolesc Psychiatry 2012; 2:112-124
27. Lynch S, McFarlane WR, Joly B, et al: Early Detection, Intervention, and Prevention of Psychosis Program: community outreach and early identification at six US sites. Psychiatr Serv 2016; 67:510-516
28. McFarlane WR, Cook WL, Downing D, et al: Portland Identification and Early Referral: a community-based system for identifying and treating youths at high risk of psychosis. Psychiatr Serv 2010; 61: 512-515
29. Miller TJ, McGlashan TH, Rosen JL, et al: Prodromal assessment with the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes and the Scale of Prodromal Symptoms: predictive validity, interrater reliability, and training to reliability. Schizophr Bull 2003; 29:703-715
30. Miller TJ, McGlashan TH, Rosen JL, et al: Prospective diagnosis of the initial prodrome for schizophrenia based on the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes: preliminary evidence of interrater reliability and predictive validity. Am J Psychiatry 2002; 159:863-865
31. Miller TJ, McGlashan TH, Woods SW, et al: Symptom assessment in schizophrenic prodromal states. Psychiatr Q 1999; 70:273-287
32. Cornblatt BA, Auther AM, Niendam T, et al: Preliminary findings for two new measures of social and role functioning in the prodromal phase of schizophrenia. Schizophr Bull 2007; 33:688-702
33. Green MF, Nuechterlein KH, Gold JM, et al: Approaching a consensus cognitive battery for clinical trials in schizophrenia: the NIMH-MATRICS conference to select cognitive domains and test criteria. Biol Psychiatry 2004; 56:301-307
34. Keefe R: Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia (BACS) Manual-A: Version 2. 1. Durham, NC, Duke University Medical Center, 1999
35. Benedict RHB, Schretlen D, Groninger L, et al: Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised: normative data and analysis of inter-form and test-retest reliability. Clin Neuropsychol 1998; 12:43-55
36. Carrión RE, McLaughlin D, Goldberg TE, et al: Prediction of functional outcome in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis. JAMA Psychiatry 2013; 70:1133-1142
37. CornblattBA, CarriónRE, Addington J, et al:Risk factors for psychosis: impairedsocialandrole functioning. SchizophrBull2012;38:1247-1257
38. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ: The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology 1982; 143:29-36
39. Harrell FE: Regression Modeling Strategies: With Applications to Linear Models, Logistic Regression, and Survival Analysis. New York, Springer-Verlag, 2001
40. Siegel S, Castellan NJJ: Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences, 2nd ed. New York, McGraw-Hill, 1988
41. BrierGW: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon Weather Rev 1950; 78:1-3
42. Sheiner LB, Beal SL: Some suggestions for measuring predictive performance. J Pharmacokinet Biopharm 1981; 9:503-512
43. Steyerberg E: Clinical Prediction Models: A Practical Approach to Development, Validation, and Updating, New York, Springer, 2008
44. Kapur S, Phillips AG, Insel TR:Whyhas it taken so long for biological psychiatry to develop clinical tests and what to do about it? Mol Psychiatry 2012; 17:1174-1179
45. Stone NJ, Robinson JG, Lichtenstein AH, et al: 2013 ACC/AHA guideline on the treatment of blood cholesterol to reduce atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk in adults: a report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines. Circulation 2014; 129(suppl 2):S1-S45
46. Van Calster B, Steyerberg EW, Harrell FH: Risk prediction for individuals. JAMA 2015; 314:1875
47. Loewy R, Fisher M, Schlosser DA, et al: Intensive auditory cognitive training improves verbal memory in adolescents and young adults at clinical high risk for psychosis. Schizophr Bull (Epub ahead of print, Feb 22, 2016)
48. DeFilippis AP, Young R, Carrubba CJ, et al: Ananalysis of calibration and discrimination among multiple cardiovascular risk scores in a modern multiethnic cohort. Ann Intern Med 2015; 162:266-275