Extinction risk of North American seed plants elevated by climate and land-use change

Journal of Applied Ecology

Volumn 54, Issue 1, 2017, Pages 303-312

  Zhang, Jian ^a,b,c   Nielsen, Scott E ^b   Chen, Youhua ^b   Georges, Damien ^d   Qin, Yuchu ^e   Wang, Si Shuo ^f   Svenning, Jens Christian ^c   Thuiller, Wilfried ^d  

^a EAST CHINA NORMAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA   (Canada)

^c AARHUS UNIVERSITY   (Denmark)

^d UNIV GRENOBLE ALPES   (France)

^e INSTITUTE OF GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS   (China)

^f UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

Author keywords

climate refugia; endemism; ensemble forecast; evolutionary diversity; extinction; phylogenetic diversity; range shift; species distribution modelling

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION PLANNING; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; ENDANGERED SPECIES; ENDEMIC SPECIES; ENDEMISM; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; EXTINCTION RISK; LAND USE CHANGE; PHYLOGENETICS; PLANT; RANGE EXPANSION; RISK ASSESSMENT; SPECIES RICHNESS;

NORTH AMERICA;

SPERMATOPHYTA;

EID: 84977507421     PISSN: 00218901     EISSN: 13652664     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12701     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. Abouheif, E. (1999) A method for testing the assumption of phylogenetic independence in comparative data. Evolutionary Ecology Research, 1, 895–909.
2. Alkemade, R., Van Oorschot, M., Miles, L., Nellemann, C., Bakkenes, M. & ten Brink, B. (2009) GLOBIO3: a framework to investigate options for reducing global terrestrial biodiversity loss. Ecosystems, 12, 374–390.
3. Allouche, O., Tsoar, A. & Kadmon, R. (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 1223–1232.
4. Araujo, M.B. & New, M. (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 22, 42–47.
5. Barbet-Massin, M., Jiguet, F., Albert, C.H. & Thuiller, W. (2012) Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models: how, where and how many? Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 3, 327–338.
6. Bellard, C., Thuiller, W., Leroy, B., Genovesi, P., Bakkenes, M. & Courchamp, F. (2013) Will climate change promote future invasions? Global Change Biology, 19, 3740–3748.
7. Blomberg, S.P., Garland, T. & Ives, A.R. (2003) Testing for phylogenetic signal in comparative data: behavioral traits are more labile. Evolution, 57, 717–745.
8. Boucher, F.C., Thuiller, W., Davies, T.J. & Lavergne, S. (2014) Neutral biogeography and the evolution of climatic niches. American Naturalist, 183, 573–584.
9. CBD (2015) Aichi biodiversity targets. Available at: https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/ (accessed 25 December 2015).
10. Chen, I.C., Hill, J.K., Ohlemuller, R., Roy, D.B. & Thomas, C.D. (2011) Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science, 333, 1024–1026.
11. Clark, J.S., Fastie, C., Hurtt, G., Jackson, S.T., Johnson, C., King, G.A. et al. (1998) Reid's paradox of rapid plant migration - Dispersal theory and interpretation of paleoecological records. BioScience, 48, 13–24.
12. Cunze, S., Heydel, F. & Tackenberg, O. (2013) Are plant species able to keep pace with the rapidly changing climate? PLoS ONE, 8, e67909.
13. Díaz, S., Demissew, S., Joly, C., Lonsdale, W.M. & Larigauderie, A. (2015) A Rosetta stone for nature's benefits to people. PLoS Biology, 13, e1002040.
14. Dormann, C.F., Elith, J., Bacher, S., Buchmann, C., Carl, G., Carré, G. et al. (2013) Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance. Ecography, 36, 27–46.
15. Eiserhardt, W.L., Borchsenius, F., Plum, C.M., Ordonez, A. & Svenning, J.C. (2015) Climate-driven extinctions shape the phylogenetic structure of temperate tree floras. Ecology Letters, 18, 263–272.
16. Faith, D.P. (1992) Conservation evaluation and phylogenetic diversity. Biological Conservation, 61, 1–10.
17. Franklin, J. (2009) Mapping Species Distributions: Species Inference and Prediction. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
18. Gallien, L., Munkemuller, T., Albert, C.H., Boulangeat, I. & Thuiller, W. (2010) Predicting potential distributions of invasive species: where to go from here? Diversity and Distributions, 16, 331–342.
19. Hamann, A., Wang, T.L., Spittlehouse, D.L. & Murdock, T.Q. (2013) A comprehensive, high-resolution database of historical and projected climate surfaces for Western North America. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94, 1307–1309.
20. Hijmans, R.J. & Graham, C.H. (2006) The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Global Change Biology, 12, 2272–2281.
21. Hille Ris Lambers, J (2015) Extinction risks from climate change. Science, 348, 501–502.
22. IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
23. IUCN (2014) The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2014.2. Available at: http://www.iucnredlist.org (accessed 10 June 2014).
24. Jenkins, C.N., Van Houtan, K.S., Pimm, S.L. & Sexton, J.O. (2015) Us protected lands mismatch biodiversity priorities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112, 5081–5086.
25. Jetz, W., Wilcove, D.S. & Dobson, A.P. (2007) Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. Plos Biology, 5, 1211–1219.
26. Kearney, M.R., Wintle, B.A. & Porter, W.P. (2010) Correlative and mechanistic models of species distribution provide congruent forecasts under climate change. Conservation Letters, 3, 203–213.
27. Kelly, A.E. & Goulden, M.L. (2008) Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 11823–11826.
28. Kremen, C., Cameron, A., Moilanen, A., Phillips, S.J., Thomas, C.D., Beentje, H. et al. (2008) Aligning conservation priorities across taxa in Madagascar with high-resolution planning tools. Science, 320, 222–226.
29. Lavergne, S., Mouquet, N., Thuiller, W. & Ronce, O. (2010) Biodiversity and climate change: integrating evolutionary and ecological responses of species and communities. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 41, 321–350.
30. Lavergne, S., Evans, M.E.K., Burfield, I.J., Jiguet, F. & Thuiller, W. (2013) Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 368, 20120091.
31. Lawler, J.J., Shafer, S.L., White, D., Kareiva, P., Maurer, E.P., Blaustein, A.R. & Bartlein, P.J. (2009) Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere. Ecology, 90, 588–597.
32. Lenoir, J. & Svenning, J.C. (2015) Climate-related range shifts – a global multidimensional synthesis and new research directions. Ecography, 38, 15–28.
33. Loarie, S.R., Carter, B.E., Hayhoe, K., McMahon, S., Moe, R., Knight, C.A. & Ackerly, D.D. (2008) Climate change and the future of California's endemic flora. PLoS ONE, 3, e2502.
34. Marmion, M., Parviainen, M., Luoto, M., Heikkinen, R.K. & Thuiller, W. (2009) Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling. Diversity and Distributions, 15, 59–69.
35. Marquardt, D.W. (1970) Generalized inverses, ridge regression, biased linear estimation, and nonlinear estimation. Technometrics, 12, 591–612.
36. Mckenney, D.W., Pedlar, J.H., Lawrence, K., Campbell, K. & Hutchinson, M.F. (2007) Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of North American trees. BioScience, 57, 939–948.
37. Melillo, J.M., Richmond, T.C. & Yohe, G.W. (2014) Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. Available at: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report (accessed 10 May 2015).
38. Nakicenovic, N. (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
39. Natureserve (2014) NatureServe Explorer: An online encyclopedia of life [web application]. Version 7.0. Available at: http://explorer.natureserve.org/ (accessed 6 June 2014).
40. Parmesan, C. & Yohe, G. (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37–42.
41. Peterson, A.T., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Bartley, J., Sanchez-Cordero, V., Soberon, J., Buddemeier, R.H. & Stockwell, D.R.B. (2002) Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature, 416, 626–629.
42. Pimm, S.L., Jenkins, C.N., Abell, R., Brooks, T.M., Gittleman, J.L., Joppa, L.N., Raven, P.H., Roberts, C.M. & Sexton, J.O. (2014) The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection. Science, 344, 1246752.
43. Pio, D.V., Engler, R., Linder, H.P., Monadjem, A., Cotterill, F.P.D., Taylor, P.J. et al. (2014) Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa. Global Change Biology, 20, 1538–1549.
44. Prentice, I.C., Bartlein, P.J. & Webb, T. (1991) Vegetation and climate change in Eastern North-America since the Last Glacial Maximum. Ecology, 72, 2038–2056.
45. Purvis, A., Agapow, P.M., Gittleman, J.L. & Mace, G.M. (2000) Nonrandom extinction and the loss of evolutionary history. Science, 288, 328–330.
46. Qian, H. & Zhang, J. (2014) Using an updated time-calibrated family-level phylogeny of seed plants to test for non-random patterns of life forms across the phylogeny. Journal of Systematics and Evolution, 52, 423–430.
47. R Core Team (2014) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
48. Redding, D.W. & Mooers, A.O. (2006) Incorporating evolutionary measures into conservation prioritization. Conservation Biology, 20, 1670–1678.
49. Rogerson, P.A. (2001) Statistical Methods for Geography. Sage, London.
50. Roquet, C., Thuiller, W. & Lavergne, S. (2013) Building megaphylogenies for macroecology: taking up the challenge. Ecography, 36, 13–26.
51. Samy, G., Chavan, V., Ariño, A.H., Otegui, J., Hobern, D., Sood, R. & Robles, E. (2013) Content assessment of the primary biodiversity data published through GBIF network: status, challenges and potentials. Biodiversity Informatics, 8, 94–172.
52. Smith, W.B. (2002) Forest inventory and analysis: a national inventory and monitoring program. Environmental Pollution, 116, S233–S242.
53. Sommer, J.H., Kreft, H., Kier, G., Jetz, W., Mutke, J. & Barthlott, W. (2010) Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 277, 2271–2280.
54. Stralberg, D., Matsuoka, S.M., Hamann, A., Bayne, E.M., Sólymos, P., Schmiegelow, F., Wang, X., Cumming, S.G. & Song, S.J. (2015) Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise. Ecological Applications, 25, 52–69.
55. Svenning, J.C. & Sandel, B. (2013) Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change. American Journal of Botany, 100, 1266–1286.
56. Thomas, C.D., Bodsworth, E.J., Wilson, R.J., Simmons, A.D., Davies, Z.G., Musche, M. & Conradt, L. (2001) Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins. Nature, 411, 577–581.
57. Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C. et al. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145–148.
58. Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Araujo, M.B., Sykes, M.T. & Prentice, I.C. (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 8245–8250.
59. Thuiller, W., Lafourcade, B., Engler, R. & Araujo, M.B. (2009) BIOMOD - a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography, 32, 369–373.
60. Thuiller, W., Lavergne, S., Roquet, C., Boulangeat, I., Lafourcade, B. & Araújo, M.B. (2011) Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe. Nature, 470, 531–534.
61. Thuiller, W., Munkemuller, T., Lavergne, S., Mouillot, D., Mouquet, N., Schiffers, K. & Gravel, D. (2013) A road map for integrating eco-evolutionary processes into biodiversity models. Ecology Letters, 16, 94–105.
62. Thuiller, W., Pironon, S., Psomas, A., Barbet-Massin, M., Jiguet, F., Lavergne, S. et al. (2014) The European functional tree of bird life in the face of global change. Nature Communications, 5, 3118.
63. Urban, M.C. (2015) Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. Science, 348, 571–573.
64. Vamosi, J.C. & Vamosi, S.M. (2008) Extinction risk escalates in the Tropics. PLoS ONE, 3, e3886.
65. Vamosi, J.C. & Wilson, J.R.U. (2008) Nonrandom extinction leads to elevated loss of angiosperm evolutionary history. Ecology Letters, 11, 1047–1053.
66. VanDerWal, J., Shoo, L.P., Graham, C. & William, S.E. (2009) Selecting pseudo-absence data for presence-only distribution modeling: how far should you stray from what you know? Ecological Modelling, 220, 589–594.
67. Veron, S., Davies, T.J., Cadotte, M.W., Clergeau, P. & Pavoine, S. (in press) Predicting loss of evolutionary history: where are we? Biological Reviews, doi: 10.1111/brv.12228.
68. Warren, F.J. & Lemmen, D.S. (2014) Canada in a Changing Climate: Sector Perspectives on Impacts and Adaptation. Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa.
69. Wiens, J.J., Ackerly, D.D., Allen, A.P., Anacker, B.L., Buckley, L.B., Cornell, H.V. et al. (2010) Niche conservatism as an emerging principle in ecology and conservation biology. Ecology Letters, 13, 1310–1324.
70. Winter, M., Devictor, V. & Schweiger, O. (2013) Phylogenetic diversity and nature conservation: where are we? Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 28, 199–204.
71. Yesson, C., Brewer, P.W., Sutton, T., Caithness, N., Pahwa, J.S., Burgess, M. et al. (2007) How global is the Global Biodiversity Information Facility? PLoS ONE, 2, e1124.
72. Zanne, A.E., Tank, D.C., Cornwell, W.K., Eastman, J.M., Smith, S.A., FitzJohn, R.G. et al. (2014) Three keys to the radiation of angiosperms into freezing environments. Nature, 506, 89–92.
73. Zhang, J., Huang, S.M. & He, F.L. (2015) Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112, 4009–4014.
74. Zhang, J., Nielsen, S.E., Stolar, J., Chen, Y. & Thuiller, W. (2015) Gains and losses of plant species and phylogenetic diversity for a northern high-latitude region. Diversity and Distributions, 21, 1441–1454.