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Volumn 288, Issue 5464, 2000, Pages 328-330

Nonrandom extinction and the loss of evolutionary history

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EVOLUTION; EXTINCTION; PHYLOGENY;

EID: 0034646860     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.288.5464.328     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (420)

References (37)
  • 3
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    • J. H. Lawton and R. M. May, Eds. Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, UK
    • R. M. May, J. H. Lawton, N. E. Stork, in Extinction Rates, J. H. Lawton and R. M. May, Eds. (Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, UK, 1995), pp. 1-24.
    • (1995) Extinction Rates , pp. 1-24
    • May, R.M.1    Lawton, J.H.2    Stork, N.E.3
  • 9
    • 0342919131 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • These two measures are representative of the many that have been proposed (21). Although numbers of species (or higher taxa such as genera) are obvious empirical measures, they do not quantify the evolutionary history represented by the species (22-27). Conversely, PD is a measure of the total amount of evolutionary change that is independent of the number of recognized taxa in a phylogeny.
  • 12
    • 0343790066 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • All bird and mammal species have been classified into one of seven categories in the IUCN categories of threat. Six of these categories represent a sequence of declining extinction risk (extinct, extinct in the wild, critically endangered, endangered, vulnerable, and lower risk), with vulnerable and all higher categories being lumped into the general category of "threatened." Lower risk has three subcategories (conservation-dependent, near threatened, and least concern). Because conservation-dependent species qualify for threatened status but are secure as a result of ongoing conservation actions, we included these with the vulnerable species for our analyses. Lower risk (near threatened) species are close to qualifying for threatened status and so represent a lower potential threshold for threatened status. See (28).
  • 13
    • 0342484916 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • We did not set a higher threshold because (i) only 2% of birds and 4% of mammals are listed as more threatened than EN and (ii) although it is probably a reasonable approximation that DD species are at least VU or even EN, it is probably unreasonable to assume they are all CR.
  • 14
    • 0342484915 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • A total of 208 mammalian and 66 bird species are DD (4.4% and 1%, respectively) (4).
  • 15
    • 0342484914 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • Species lists were as used by IUCN. Phylogenies were species-level composite estimates (29, 30), with the primate phylogeny modified to match the IUCN list (31, 32). Use of the species list from (31) made no qualitative difference to either the taxonomic (primates and mammals) or PD (primates) results (33).
  • 16
    • 0343354337 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The phylogenies, data sets, and programs used to conduct simulations are available from www.bio.ic. ac.uk/evolve/.
  • 17
    • 0343790065 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • There are several reasons why carnivores might not show significance. Unlike primate genera, many carnivore genera are geographically very widespread. Given that extinction risk varies significantly among geographic regions (4), species in widespread taxa might have less similar predispositions to extinction than those in narrowly distributed genera. Second, carnivore genera are unusually species-poor, with most being monotypic and only 2.1 species per genus on average, compared with 4.2 (median = 2) in primates, 4.2 (median = 2) in mammals as a whole, and 4.7 (median = 2) in birds. Third, recent simulations (34) suggest that a critical determinant of the extent of biodiversity loss is the correlation between speciation rates and extinction risk, with a negative correlation giving greatest loss.
  • 18
    • 0342919123 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • 1 = 89.9, P < 0.001.
  • 19
    • 0342919121 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • Mammals: Otomops (six species); Bos, Bubalus, Crateromys, Leontopithecus, Mesocapromys, Pteralopex, Rhinopithecus (four species); Capricornis, Dasycercus, Hemitragus, Myomimus, Oryx, Propithecus, Redunca, Rynchocyon, Trichechus (three species); Alcelaphus, Berardius, Bison, Brachyteles, Chinchilla, Chlamyphorus, Chrysospalax, Connochaetes, Cryptochloris, Eubalaena, Galidictis, Geocapromys, Hippotragus, Hyosciurus, Hyperoodon, Kunsia, Leptonycteris, Macruromys, Micropotamogale, Monachus, Notoryctes, Pan, Perameles, Platanista, Podogymnura, Pseudohydromys, Rhinoceros, Rhynchocyon, Scolomys, Solenodon, Surdisorex, Tateomys, Tokudaia (two species). Birds: Pomarea (five species); Apteryx, Dasyornis, Goura, Heteromirafra (three species); Anodorhynchus, Atrichornis, Brachypteracias, Geronticus, Hemignathus, Hylorchilus, Loxops, Mesitornis, Moho, Nesospiza, Oreomystis, Pauxi, Picathartes, Rhynchopsitta, Telespiza (two species).
  • 20
    • 0342919122 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • We did not extrapolate from carnivores because their pattern of extinction risk, unlike mammals as a whole, is not greatly different from random. We did not extrapolate to birds because bird and mammal genera may have different average ages (36).
  • 22
    • 0001426025 scopus 로고
    • R. M. May, Nature 347, 129 (1990).
    • (1990) Nature , vol.347 , pp. 129
    • May, R.M.1
  • 25
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    • P. L. Forey, C. J. Humphries, R. I. Vane-Wright, Eds. (Clarendon, Oxford, UK)
    • _, in Systematics and Conservation Evaluation, P. L. Forey, C. J. Humphries, R. I. Vane-Wright, Eds. (Clarendon, Oxford, UK, 1994), pp. 251-268.
    • (1994) Systematics and Conservation Evaluation , pp. 251-268
  • 28
    • 0003522670 scopus 로고
    • IUCN, Gland, Switzerland
    • IUCN, IUCN Red List Categories (IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, 1994).
    • (1994) IUCN Red List Categories
  • 37
    • 0342919066 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • We thank J. Baillie, R. Grenyer, N. Isaac, S. Nee, C. Nunn, D. Orme, W. Sechrest, and three anonymous referees for help, comments, and suggestions. This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through grant GR3/11526 (A.P. and P.-M.A.) and a fellowship (G.M.M.) and by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) through NSF grant DEB-94-21535 (J.L.G.).


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