A comparison of the CHARGE-AF and the CHA2DS2-VASc risk scores for prediction of atrial fibrillation in the Framingham Heart Study

American Heart Journal

Volumn 178, Issue , 2016, Pages 45-54

  Christophersen, Ingrid E ^a,b,c   Yin, Xiaoyan ^d,e   Larson, Martin G ^d,e   Lubitz, Steven A ^a,b   Magnani, Jared W ^d,f   McManus, David D ^g   Ellinor, Patrick T ^a,b   Benjamin, Emelia J ^d,e,f  

^a MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL   (United States)

^b BROAD INSTITUTE OF MIT AND HARVARD   (United States)

^c VESTRE VIKEN HOSPITAL TRUST   (Norway)

^d FRAMINGHAM HEART STUDY   (United States)

^e BOSTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^f BOSTON UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

^g UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS MEDICAL SCHOOL   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; AGE; AGED; ARTICLE; ATRIAL FIBRILLATION; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE ASSESSMENT; CHA2DS2 VASC RISK SCORE; CHARGE AF RISK SCORE; COHORT ANALYSIS; COMPARATIVE STUDY; DIABETES MELLITUS; FEMALE; HEART FAILURE; HUMAN; HYPERTENSION; INCIDENCE; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROGNOSIS; PROSPECTIVE STUDY; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SEX; VASCULAR DISEASE; MIDDLE AGED; PROCEDURES; PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL; RISK ASSESSMENT; VERY ELDERLY;

AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; ATRIAL FIBRILLATION; COHORT STUDIES; FEMALE; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODELS; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 84973315964     PISSN: 00028703     EISSN: 10976744     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ahj.2016.05.004     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. S.S. Chugh, R. Havmoeller, K. Narayanan, and et al. Worldwide epidemiology of atrial fibrillation: a Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study Circulation 129 8 2014 837 847 [[Internet] [cited 2014 Mar 19] Available from: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=4151302&tool=pmcentrez&rendertype=abstract]
2. E.J. Benjamin, P.A. Wolf, R.B. D'Agostino, and et al. Impact of atrial fibrillation on the risk of death: the Framingham Heart Study Circulation 98 0009-7322 (Print) 1998 946 952 [National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study, National Institutes of Health, Mass, USA. emelia@fram.nhlbi.nih.gov]
3. V. Fuster, L.E. Rydén, D.S. Cannom, and et al. 2011 ACCF/AHA/HRS focused updates incorporated into the ACC/AHA/ESC 2006 guidelines for the management of patients with atrial fibrillation: a report of the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association Task Force on practice guidel Circulation 123 10 2011 e269 e367 [[Internet]. [cited 2015 May 7]; Available from: http://circ.ahajournals.org/content/123/10/e269]
4. W.B. Kannel, and E.J. Benjamin Status of the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation Med Clin North Am 92 0025-7125 (Print) 2008 17 40, ix [Boston University, The Framingham Heart Study, 73 Mount Wayte Avenue, Framingham, MA 01702, USA. billkannel@yahoo.com]
5. T.J. Wang, M.G. Larson, D. Levy, and et al. Temporal relations of atrial fibrillation and congestive heart failure and their joint influence on mortality: the Framingham Heart Study Circulation 107 1524-4539 (Electronic) 2003 2920 2925 [Framingham Heart Study, 73 Mt Wayte Ave, Suite #2, Framingham, Mass 01702-5827, USA]
6. E.J. Benjamin, D. Levy, S.M. Vaziri, and et al. Independent Risk Factors for Atrial Fibrillation in a Population-Based Cohort JAMA 271 11 1994 840 844 [[Internet]. Framingham Heart Study, MA 01701: American Medical Association; [cited 2015 Jan 15]; Available from: http://jama.jamanetwork.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/article.aspx?articleid=367563]
7. R.B. Schnabel, L.M. Sullivan, D. Levy, and et al. Development of a risk score for atrial fibrillation (Framingham Heart Study): a community-based cohort study Lancet 373 1474-547X (Electronic) 2009 739 745 [Framingham Heart Study, Framingham, MA, USA; Department of Medicine II, Johannes Gutenberg-University, Mainz, Germany]
8. R.B. Schnabel, T. Aspelund, G. Li, and et al. Validation of an atrial fibrillation risk algorithm in whites and African Americans Arch Intern Med 170 21 2010 1909 1917
9. A.M. Chamberlain, S.K. Agarwal, A.R. Folsom, and et al. A clinical risk score for atrial fibrillation in a biracial prospective cohort (from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study) Am J Cardiol 107 1 2011 85 91 [[Internet]. [cited 2015 Jun 4]; Available from: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=3031130&tool=pmcentrez&rendertype=abstract]
10. A. Alonso, B.P. Krijthe, T. Aspelund, and et al. Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium J Am Heart Assoc 2 2 2013 e000102 [[Internet]. [cited 2014 Jul 21]; Available from: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=3647274&tool=pmcentrez&rendertype=abstract]
11. E. Shulman, F. Kargoli, P. Aagaard, and et al. Validation of the Framingham Heart Study and CHARGE-AF Risk Scores for Atrial Fibrillation in Hispanics, African-Americans, and Non-Hispanic Whites Am J Cardiol 117 1 2016 76 83 [[Internet]. [cited 2016 Feb 15]; Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26589820]
12. R. Pfister, J. Brägelmann, G. Michels, and et al. Performance of the CHARGE-AF risk model for incident atrial fibrillation in the EPIC Norfolk cohort Eur J Prev Cardiol 22 7 2015 932 939 [[Internet]. [cited 2015 Jun 15]; Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25059930]
13. B.F. Gage, A.D. Waterman, W. Shannon, and et al. Validation of Clinical Classification Schemes for Predicting Stroke JAMA 285 22 2001 2864 2870 [[Internet]. American Medical Association; [cited 2015 Mar 30]. Available from: http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=193912]
14. G.Y. Lip, R. Nieuwlaat, R. Pisters, and et al. Refining clinical risk stratification for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation using a novel risk factor-based approach: the euro heart survey on atrial fibrillation Chest 137 1931-3543 (Electronic) 2010 263 272 [University of Birmingham Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, City Hospital, Birmingham, UK. g.y.h.lip@bham.ac.uk]
15. C.T. January, L.S. Wann, J.S. Alpert, and et al. 2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Executive Summary: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines and the Heart Rhythm Society J Am Coll Cardiol 64 21 2014 2246 2280 [[Internet]. Journal of the American College of Cardiology; [cited 2014 Jul 9]; Available from: http://content.onlinejacc.org/article.aspx?articleid=1854230.]
16. M.-L. Zuo, S. Liu, K.-H. Chan, and et al. The CHADS2 and CHA 2DS 2-VASc scores predict new occurrence of atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke J Interv Card Electrophysiol 37 1 2013 47 54 [[Internet]. [cited 2015 Feb 27]; Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23389054]
17. V. Jacobs, H.T. May, T.L. Bair, and et al. The impact of risk score (CHADS2 versus CHA2DS2-VASc) on long-term outcomes after atrial fibrillation ablation Heart Rhythm 12 4 2015 681 686 [Internet]. [cited 2015 May 29]; Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1547527114015525
18. A.C. Ruwald, U. Gang, P.E.B. Thomsen, and et al. The predictive value of CHADS2 risk score in post myocardial infarction arrhythmias - a Cardiac Arrhythmias and RIsk Stratification after Myocardial infArction (CARISMA) substudy Int J Cardiol 173 3 2014 441 446 [[Internet]. [cited 2015 Mar 17]; Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24713455]
19. J. Kornej, G. Hindricks, J. Kosiuk, and et al. Comparison of CHADS2, R2CHADS2, and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for the prediction of rhythm outcomes after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: the Leipzig Heart Center AF Ablation Registry Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol 7 2 2014 281 287 [[Internet]. [cited 2015 Mar 17]; Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24610790]
20. S. Sareh, W. Toppen, L. Mukdad, and et al. CHADS2 score predicts atrial fibrillation following cardiac surgery J Surg Res 2014 2 7 [[Internet]. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24629418]
21. S.-K. Chua, K.-G. Shyu, M.-J. Lu, and et al. Clinical utility of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scoring systems for predicting postoperative atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 146 4 2013 919 926.e1 [[Internet]. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23628495]
22. L. Fauchier, N. Clementy, C. Pelade, and et al. Patients With Ischemic Stroke and Incident Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Cohort Study Stroke 46 9 2015 2432 2437 [Internet]. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26251249
23. T.R. Dawber, G.F. Meadors, and F.E. Moore Epidemiological approaches to heart disease: the Framingham Study Am J Public Health Nations Health 41 3 1951 279 281 [[Internet]. [cited 2015 Mar 4]; Available from: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1525365&tool=pmcentrez&rendertype=abstract]
24. A.J. Camm, G.Y.H. Lip, R. De Caterina, and et al. 2012 focused update of the ESC Guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation: an update of the 2010 ESC Guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation. Developed with the special contribution of the European Heart Rhythm Association Eur Heart J 33 1522-9645 (Electronic) 2012 2719 2747 [[Internet]. Division of Clinical Sciences, St.George's University of London, Cranmer Terrace, London SW17 0RE, United Kingdom. jcamm@sgul.ac.uk; Available from: papers2://publication/doi/10.1093/eurheartj/ehs253.]
25. L.A. Cupples, and R.B. D'Agostino Section 34: some risk factors related to the annual incidence of cardiovascular disease and death in pooled repeated biennial measurements W.B. Kannel, P.A. Wolf, R.J. Garrison, Framingham Heart Study: 30 Year Follow-Up 1987 US Department of Health and Human Services Bethesda: Md
26. T.A. Gooley, W. Leisenring, J. Crowley, and B.E. Storer Estimation of failure probabilities in the presence of competing risks: new representations of old estimators Stat Med 18 6 1999 695 706 [[Internet]. [cited 2015 Jun 2]; Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10204198]
27. J.P. Fine, and R.J. Gray A proportional hazards model for the subdistribution of a competing risk J Am Stat Assoc 94 1999 496 509 [[Internet] Available from: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/2670170/npapers2://publication/uuid/11555F83-811D-4BE1-83C8-87D552B09F0D]
28. J.J. Dignam, Q. Zhang, and M. Kocherginsky The use and interpretation of competing risks regression models Clin Cancer Res 18 8 2012 2301 2308 [[Internet]. [cited 2016 Jan 17]; Available from: http://clincancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/18/8/2301.long]
29. M. Wolbers, M.T. Koller, V.S. Stel, and et al. Competing risks analyses: Objectives and approaches Eur Heart J 2014 2936 2941
30. M. Kohl, M. Plischke, K. Leffondré, and G. Heinze PSHREG: a SAS macro for proportional and nonproportional subdistribution hazards regression Comput Methods Programs Biomed 118 2 2015 218 233 [[Internet]. [cited 2015 May 29]; Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25572709]
31. D.Y. Lin, and L.J. Wei The Robust Inference for the Cox Proportional Hazards Model J Am Stat Assoc 84 408 1989 1074 1078
32. M.J. Pencina, and R.B. D'Agostino Overall C as a measure of discrimination in survival analysis: model specific population value and confidence interval estimation Stat Med 23 13 2004 2109 2123 [[Internet]. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15211606]
33. R.B. D'Agostino, and B.H. Nam Evaluation of the performance of survival analysis models: discrimination and calibration measures N. Balakrishnan, C. Rao, Handbook of Statistics vol. 23 2004 Elsevier Amsterdam 1 25
34. C.S. Crowson, E.J. Atkinson, and T.M. Therneau Assessing calibration of prognostic risk scores Stat Methods Med Res 2014 [[Internet]. [cited 2016 Feb 5]; Available from: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=3933449&tool=pmcentrez&rendertype=abstract]
35. L. Friberg, L. Benson, M. Rosenqvist, and G.Y.H. Lip Assessment of female sex as a risk factor in atrial fibrillation in Sweden: nationwide retrospective cohort study BMJ 344 may30-3 2012 e3522 [[Internet]. [cited 2015 Dec 1]; Available from: http://www.bmj.com/content/344/bmj.e3522]
36. J.B. Olesen, L. Fauchier, D.A. Lane, and et al. Risk factors for stroke and thromboembolism in relation to age among patients with atrial fibrillation: the Loire Valley Atrial Fibrillation Project Chest 141 1 2012 147 153 [[Internet]. American College of Chest Physicians; [cited 2015 Nov 9]; Available from: http://journal.publications.chestnet.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/article.aspx?articleid=1149031]
37. J.B. Olesen, G.Y.H. Lip, D.A. Lane, and et al. Vascular disease and stroke risk in atrial fibrillation: a nationwide cohort study Am J Med 125 8 2012 826.e13 826.e23 [[Internet]. [cited 2015 Nov 5]; Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22579139]
38. K.J. Brunner, T.J. Bunch, C.M. Mullin, and et al. Clinical predictors of risk for atrial fibrillation: implications for diagnosis and monitoring Mayo Clin Proc 89 11 2014 1498 1505 [[Internet]. [cited 2015 May 16]; Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25444486]
39. B.M. Everett, N.R. Cook, D. Conen, and et al. Novel genetic markers improve measures of atrial fibrillation risk prediction Eur Heart J 34 1522-9645 (Electronic) 2013 2243 2251 [[Internet]. Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA; [cited 2014 Mar 20]; Available from: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=3730133&tool=pmcentrez&rendertype=abstract]
40. T.F. Chao, C.J. Liu, S.J. Chen, and et al. CHADS2 score and risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation: A nationwide cohort study in Taiwan Int J Cardiol 168 2 2013 1360 1363
41. Y. Yang, Z. Zhang, C.Y. Ng, and et al. Meta-analysis of CHADS2 Score in Predicting Atrial Fibrillation Am J Cardiol 116 4 2015 554 562 [[Internet] [cited 2015 Jun 15] Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26071992]
42. A. Sciacqua, M. Perticone, G. Tripepi, and et al. CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are independently associated with incident atrial fibrillation: the Catanzaro Atrial Fibrillation Project Intern Emerg Med 10 7 2015 815 821 [[Internet] [cited 2015 Jun 15]. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25939338]
43. R.G. Kashani, S. Sareh, B. Genovese, and et al. Predicting postoperative atrial fibrillation using CHA2DS2-VASc scores J Surg Res 198 2 2015 267 272 [[Internet] [cited 2015 Jun 15]. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26004496]
44. M. Rienstra, S.A. Lubitz, S. Mahida, and et al. Symptoms and functional status of patients with atrial fibrillation: State of the art and future research opportunities Circulation 125 23 2012 2933 2943 [[Internet] [cited 2015 Mar 6] Available from: http://circ.ahajournals.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/content/125/23/2933.long]
45. G.J. Wynn, D.M. Todd, M. Webber, and et al. The European Heart Rhythm Association symptom classification for atrial fibrillation: validation and improvement through a simple modification Europace 16 7 2014 965 972 [[Internet] [cited 2015 Mar 11] Available from: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=4070972&tool=pmcentrez&rendertype=abstract]
46. M.H. Kim, S.S. Johnston, B.-C. Chu, and et al. Estimation of total incremental health care costs in patients with atrial fibrillation in the United States Circ Cardiovasc Qual outcomes 4 2011 313 320
47. M. Haim, M. Hoshen, O. Reges, and et al. Prospective national study of the prevalence, incidence, management and outcome of a large contemporary cohort of patients with incident non-valvular atrial fibrillation J Am Heart Assoc 4 1 2015 e001486 [[Internet] [cited 2015 Feb 16] Available from: http://jaha.ahajournals.org/content/4/1/e001486.long]
48. Y. Miyasaka, M.E. Barnes, B.J. Gersh, and et al. Secular trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1980 to 2000, and implications on the projections for future prevalence Circulation 114 2 2006 119 125 [[Internet] [cited 2014 May 3] Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16818816]
49. R.B. Schnabel, X. Yin, P. Gona, and et al. 50 year trends in atrial fibrillation prevalence, incidence, risk factors, and mortality in the Framingham Heart Study: a cohort study Lancet 386 9989 2015 154 162 [[Internet] [cited 2015 Jul 12] Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673614617748]
50. E.J. Benjamin, P.-S. Chen, D.E. Bild, and et al. Prevention of atrial fibrillation: report from a national heart, lung, and blood institute workshop Circulation 119 4 2009 606 618 [[Internet] [cited 2015 Jun 15] Available from: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=2635942&tool=pmcentrez&rendertype=abstract]
51. D.R. Van Wagoner, J.P. Piccini, C.M. Albert, and et al. Progress toward the prevention and treatment of atrial fibrillation: A summary of the Heart Rhythm Society Research Forum on the Treatment and Prevention of Atrial Fibrillation, Washington, DC, December 9-10, 2013 Heart Rhythm 12 1 2015 e5 e29 [[Internet] [cited 2015 Jun 15] Available from: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=4425127&tool=pmcentrez&rendertype=abstract]
52. W. Bekwelem, S.J. Connolly, J.L. Halperin, and et al. Extracranial Systemic Embolic Events in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes Circulation 132 9 2015 796 803 [[Internet] [cited 2015 Nov 30] Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26224811]