Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Ecological Indicators

Volumn 69, Issue , 2016, Pages 276-283

  Smith, Alain ^a   Schoeman, M Corrie ^b,c   Keith, Mark ^a   Erasmus, Barend F N ^d   Monadjem, Ara ^a,e   Moilanen, Atte ^f   Di Minin, Enrico ^c,f  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA   (South Africa)

^b UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST OF ENGLAND   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF KWAZULU NATAL   (South Africa)

^d UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND   (South Africa)

^e UNIVERSITY OF SWAZILAND   (Swaziland)

^f UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI   (Finland)

Author keywords

Africa; Chiroptera; Climate change; Connectivity; Conservation; Land use change; Zonation

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; CONSERVATION; ECOLOGY; ECOSYSTEMS; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; FORESTRY; LAND USE; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION;

AFRICA; CHIROPTERA; CONNECTIVITY; LAND-USE CHANGE; ZONATION;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AGRICULTURAL LAND; BAT; BIOINDICATOR; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONNECTIVITY; CONSERVATION PLANNING; ECOSYSTEM SERVICE; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; HABITAT QUALITY; LAND USE CHANGE; LAND USE PLANNING; PROTECTED AREA; SYNERGISM; ZONATION;

AFRICA;

CHIROPTERA;

EID: 84966335438     PISSN: 1470160X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.04.039     Document Type: Article

References (96)

1. M. Barbet-Massin, W. Thuiller, and F. Jiguet The fate of European breeding birds under climate, land-use and dispersal scenarios Global Change Biol. 18 2011 881 890
2. C. Bellard, C. Bertelsmeier, P. Leadley, W. Thuiller, and F. Courchamp Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity Ecol. Lett. 15 2012 365 377
3. T.L. Best, K.N. Geluso, and L.K. Ammerman Summer foraging range of Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana) from Carlsbad Cavern, New Mexico Southwestern Nat. 48 2003 590 596
4. J.G. Boyles, P.M. Cryan, G.F. McCracken, and T.H. Kunz Economic importance of bats in agriculture Science 332 2010 41 42
5. B.W. Brook, N.S. Sodhi, and C.J. Bradshaw Synergies among extinction drivers under global change Trends Ecol. Evol. 23 2008 453 460
6. S.H.M. Butchart, M. Walpole, B. Collen, A. van Strien, J.P.W. Scharlemann, R.E.A. Almond, J.E.M. Baillie, B. Bomhard, C. Brown, J. Bruno, K.E. Carpenter, G.M. Carr, J. Chanson, A.M. Chenery, J. Csirke, N.C. Davidson, F. Dentener, M. Foster, A. Galli, J.N. Galloway, P. Genovesi, R.D. Gregory, M. Hockings, V. Kapos, J.-F. Lamarque, F. Leverington, J. Loh, M.A. McGeoch, L. McRae, A. Minasyan, M.H. Morcillo, T.E.E. Oldfield, D. Pauly, S. Quader, C. Revenga, J.R. Sauer, B. Skolnik, D. Spear, D. Stanwell-Smith, S.N. Stuart, A. Symes, M. Tierney, T.D. Tyrrell, J.-C. Vié, and R. Watson Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines Science 328 2010 1164 1168
7. C. Carroll, J.R. Dunk, and A. Moilanen Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest, USA Global Change Biol. 16 2010 891 904
8. L. Clarke, J. Edmonds, H. Jacoby, H. Pitcher, J. Reilly, and R. Richels Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations 6 2007 US Department of Energy Publications
9. A.F. Cord, D. Klein, F. Mora, and S. Dech Comparing the suitability of classified land cover data and remote sensing variables for modeling distribution patterns of plants Ecol. Modell. 272 2014 129 140
10. (Convention Biological Diversity, 2010. Aichi biodiversity targets of the strategic plan 2011-2020) http://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/
11. G.C. Cunto, and E. Bernard Neotropical bats as indicators of environmental disturbance: what is the emerging message? Acta Chiropterologica 14 2012 143 151
12. N. Davidai, J.K. Westbrook, J.-P. Lessard, T.G. Hallam, and G.F. McCracken The importance of natural habitats to Brazilian free-tailed bats in intensive agricultural landscapes in the Winter Garden region of Texas, United States Biol. Conserv. 190 2015 107 114
13. J.M. De Vos, L.N. Joppa, J.L. Gitleman, P.R. Stephens, and S.L. Pimm Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction Conserv. Biol. 29 2014 452 462
14. E. Di Minin, and A. Moilanen Improving the surrogacy effectiveness of charismatic megafauna with well-surveyed taxonomic groups and habitat types J. Appl. Ecol. 51 2014 281 288
15. E. Di Minin, and T. Toivonen Global protected area expansion: creating more than paper parks Bioscience 2015 biv064
16. E. Di Minin, V. Veach, J. Lehtomäki, F. Montesino-Pouzols, and A. Moilanen A Quick Introduction to Zonation 2014 University of Helsinki
17. E. Di Minin, R. Slotow, L.T.B. Hunter, F. Montesino Pouzols, T. Toivonen, P.H. Verburg, N. Leader-Williams, L. Petracca, and A. Moilanen Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change Sci. Rep. 6 2016 23814
18. J.M. Diamond Historic extinctions: a rosetta stone for understanding prehistoric extinctions P.S. Martin, R.G. Klein, Quaternary Extinctions: a Prehistoric Revolution 1984 Tucson University of Arizona Press pp. 824 862
19. R. Dirzo, and P.H. Raven Global state of biodiversity and loss Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 28 2003 137 167
20. J.E. Duchamp, and R.K. Swihart Shifts in bat community structure related to evolved traits and features of human-altered landscapes Landscape Ecol. 23 2008 849 860
21. ESRI, 2011. ArcGIS Desktop: Release 10. Redlands, CA: Environmental Systems Research Institute.
22. J. Elith, C.H. Graham, R.P. Anderson, M. Dudík, S. Ferrier, A. Guisan, R.J. Hijmans, F. Huettmann, J.R. Leathwick, A. Lehmann, L. Jin, L.G. Lohmann, B.A. Loiselle, G. Manion, C. Moritz, M. Nakamura, Y. Nakazawa, J. McC. Overton, A.T. Peterson, and S.J. Phillips Novel methods improve prediction of species distributions from occurrence data Ecography 29 2006 129 151
23. M. Fenton, R. Brigham, A. Mills, and I. Rautenbach The roosting and foraging areas of Epomophorus wahlbergi (Pteropodidae) and Scotophilus viridis (Vespertilionidae) in Kruger national park, South Africa J. Mammal. 66 1985 461 468
24. M. Fenton Roosts used by the african bat, Scotophilus leucogaster (Chiroptera: vespertilionidae) Biotropica 15 1983 129 132
25. J. Fujino, R. Nair, M. Kainuma, T. Masui, and Y. Matsuoka Multi-gas mitigation analysis on stabilization scenarios using AIM global model Energy J. 3 2006 343 354
26. R.A. Garcia, N.D. Burgess, M. Cabeza, C. Rahbek, and M.B. Araújo Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates Global Change Biol. 18 2012 1253 1269
27. K.J. Gaston Global patterns in biodiversity Nature 405 2000 220 227
28. A. Hampe, and R.J. Petit Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters Ecol. Lett. 8 2005 461 467
29. L. Hannah, J.L. Carr, and A. Lankerani Human disturbance and natural habitat: a biome level analysis of a global data set Biodivers. Conserv. 4 1995 128 155
30. T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, J. Friedman, and J. Franklin The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference and prediction Math. Intelligencer 27 2005 83 85
31. K. Heer, M. Helbig-Bonitz, R.G. Fernandes, M.A. Mello, and E.K. Kalko Effects of land use on bat diversity in a complex plantation-forest landscape in northeastern Brazil J. Mammal. 2015 gyv068
32. K.M.B. Herkt, G. Barnikel, A.K. Skidmore, and J. Fahr A high-resolution model of bat diversity and endemism for continental Africa Ecol. Modell. 320 2016 9 28
33. Y. Hijioka, Y. Matsuoka, H. Nishimoto, M. Masui, and M. Kainuma Global GHG emissions scenarios under GHG concentration stabilization targets J. Global Environ. Eng. 2008 97 108
34. R.J. Hijmans, S.E. Cameron, J.L. Parra, P.G. Jones, and A. Jarvis Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas Int. J. Climatol. 25 2005 1965 1978
35. M. Hoffmann, C. Hilton-Taylor, A. Angulo, M. Böhm, T.M. Brooks, S.H. Butchart, K.E. Carpenter, J. Chanson, B. Collen, and N.A. Cox The impact of conservation on the status of the world's vertebrates Science 330 2010 1503 1509
36. A.C. Hughes, C. Satasook, P.J.J. Bates, S. Bumrungsri, and G. Jones The projected effects of climatic and vegetation changes on the distribution and diversity of Southeast Asian bats Global Change Biol. 18 2012 1854 1865
37. IUCN, 2014. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2014.2. Available at: http://www.iucnredlist.org.
38. IUCN, 2015. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2015-3. < http://www.iucnredlist.org >. Downloaded on 13 September 2015.
39. D.S. Jacobs, R.M. Barclay, and M.C. Schoeman Foraging and roosting ecology of a rare insectivorous bat species, Laephotis wintoni (Thomas, 1901), Vespertilionidae Acta Chiropterologica 7 2005 101 109
40. G. Jones, D.S. Jacobs, T.H. Kunz, M.R. Willig, and P.A. Racey Carpe noctem: the importance of bats as bioindicators Endangered Species Res. 8 2009 93 115
41. K. Jung, and E.K. Kalko Adaptability and vulnerability of high flying Neotropical aerial insectivorous bats to urbanization Divers. Distrib. 17 2011 262 274
42. K. Jung, and C.G. Threlfall Urbanisation and its effects on Bats - A GlobalUrbanisation and its effects on Bats - A global meta-Analysis Bats in the Anthropocene: Conservation of Bats in a Changing World 2016 Springer pp. 13 33
43. O. Kalda, R. Kalda, and J. Liira Multi-scale ecology of insectivorous bats in agricultural landscapes Agric. Ecosys. Environ. 199 2015 105 113
44. M.B. Kalka, A.R. Smith, and E.K. Kalko Bats limit arthropods and herbivory in a tropical forest Science 320 2008 71
45. D.A. Keith, H.R. Akçakaya, W. Thuiller, G.F. Midgley, R.G. Pearson, S.J. Phillips, H.M. Regan, M.B. Araújo, and T.G. Rebelo Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models Biol. Lett. 4 2008 560 563
46. Kram, T., Stehfest, E., 2012. The image model suite used for the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency report 500113002.
47. J. Krauss, R. Bommarco, M. Guardiola, R.K. Heikkinen, A. Helm, M. Kuussaari, R. Lindborg, E. Öckinger, M. Pärtel, J. Pino, J. Pöyry, K.M. Raatikainen, A. Sang, C. Stefanescu, T. Teder, M. Zobel, and I. Steffan-Dewenter Habitat fragmentation causes immediate and time-delayed biodiversity loss at different trophic levels Ecol. Lett. 13 2010 597 605
48. H. Kujala, A. Moilanen, M.B. Araújo, and M. Cabeza Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections PLoS One 8 2013 e53315
49. T.H. Kunz, E. Braun de Torrez, D. Bauer, T. Lobova, and T.H. Fleming Ecosystem services provided by bats Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 1223 2011 1 38
50. A.M. Latimer, S. Wu, A.E. Gelfand, and J.A. Silander Jr Building statistical models to analyze species distributions Ecol. Appl. 16 2006 33 50
51. J. Lehtomäki, and A. Moilanen Methods and workflow for spatial conservation prioritization using Zonation Environ. Modell. Software 47 2013 128 137
52. S. Lele, P. Wilshusen, D. Brockington, R. Seidler, and K. Bawa Beyond exclusion: alternative approaches to biodiversity conservation in the developing tropics Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustainability 2 2010 94 100
53. C.R. Margules, and R.L. Pressey Systematic conservation planning Nature 405 2000 243 253
54. Y. Martin, H. Van Dyck, N. Dendoncker, and N. Titeux Testing instead of assuming the importance of land-use change scenarios to model species distributions under climate change Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 22 2013 1204 1216
55. R.A. Medellín, M. Equihua, and M.A. Amin Bat diversity and abundance as indicators of disturbance in Neotropical rainforests Conserv. Biol. 14 2000 1666 1675
56. M. Mehra, R. Brandl, T. Hothorn, F. Dziock, B. Förster, and J. Müller Land use is more important than climate for species richness and composition of bat assemblages on a regional scale Mamm. Biol. 76 2011 451 460
57. C.F.J. Meyer, J. Fründ, W.P. Lizano, and E.K.V. Kalko Ecological correlates of vulnerability to fragmen- tation in Neotropical bats J. Appl. Ecol. 45 2008 381 391
58. A. Moilanen, A.M. Franco, R.I. Early, R. Fox, B. Wintle, and C.D. Thomas Prioritizing multiple-use landscapes for conservation: methods for large multi-species planning problems Proc. R. Soc. London B: Biol. Sc. 272 2005 1885 1891
59. A. Moilanen, K.A. Wilson, and H.P. Possingham Spatial Conservation Prioritization: Quantitative Methods and Computational Tools 2009 Oxford University Press Oxford, UK
60. A. Moilanen, B.J. Anderson, F. Eigenbrod, A. Heinemeyer, D.B. Roy, S. Gillings, P.R. Armsworth, K.J. Gaston, and C.D. Thomas Balancing alternative land uses in conservation prioritization Ecol. Appl. 21 2011 1419 1426
61. Moilanen, A., Meller, L., Arponen, A., Kujala, H., Kukkala, A., 2014. Zonation spatial conservation planning framework and software v. 4.0, User Manual.
62. A. Moilanen Landscape zonation, benefit functions and target-based planning: unifying reserve selection strategies Biol. Conserv. 134 2007 571 579
63. A. Monadjem, P.J. Taylor, F.D.P. Cotterill, and M.C. Schoeman Bats of southern and central Africa: A biogeographic and taxonomic synthesis 2010 Wits University Press Johannesburg
64. F. Montesino Pouzols, T. Toivonen, E. Di Minin, A. Kukkala, P. Kullberg, J. Kuusterä, J. Lehtomäki, H. Tenkanen, P.H. Verburg, and A. Moilanen Global protected area expansion is compromised by projected land-use and parochialism Nature 516 2014 383 386
65. C.E. Moreno, G. Sánchez-Rojas, E. Pineda, and F. Escobar Shortcuts for biodiversity evaluation: a review of terminology and recommendations for the use of target groups, bioindicators and surrogates In. J. Environ. Health 1 2007 71 86
66. N. Myers, R.A. Mittermeier, C.G. Mittermeier, G.A.B. da Fonseca, and J. Kent Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities Nature 403 2000 853 858
67. OECD, 2012. OECD environmental outlook to 2050: the consequences of inaction. In, Paris.
68. H.M. Pereira, P.W. Leadley, V. Proença, R. Alkemade, J.P. Scharlemann, J.F. Fernandez-Manjarrés, M.B. Araújo, P. Balvanera, R. Biggs, and W.W. Cheung Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century Science 330 2010 1496 1501
69. S.J. Phillips, and M. Dudík Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation Ecography 31 2008 161 175
70. S.J. Phillips, R.P. Anderson, and R.E. Schapire Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions Ecol. Modell. 190 2006 231 259
71. M.J.O. Pocock, and N. Jennings Testing biotic indicator taxa: the sensitivity of insectivorous mammals and their prey to the intensification of lowland agriculture J. Appl. Ecol. 45 2008 151 160
72. A. Radosavljevic, and R.P. Anderson Making better Maxent models of species distributions: complexity, overfitting and evaluation J. Biogeogr. 41 2014 629 643
73. H. Rebelo, P. Tarroso, and G. Jones Predicted impact of climate change on European bats in relation to their biogeographic patterns Global Change Biol. 16 2010 561 576
74. I.W. Renner, and D.I. Warton Equivalence of MAXENT and Poisson point process models for species distribution modeling in ecology Biometrics 69 2013 274 281
75. K. Riahi, A. Grübler, and N. Nakicenovic Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization Technol. Forecasting Social Change 74 2007 887 935
76. A.S.L. Rodrigues, and T.M. Brooks Shortcuts for biodiversity conservation planning: the effectiveness of surrogates Ann. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 38 2007 713 737
77. I. Sazima, S. Vogel, and M. Sazima Bat pollination ofEncholirium glaziovii, a terrestrial bromeliad Plant Syst. Evol. 168 1989 167 179
78. O.J. Schmitz, J.J. Lawler, P. Beier, C. Groves, G. Knight, D.A. Boyce Jr, J. Bulluck, K.M. Johnston, M.L. Klein, and K. Muller Conserving biodiversity: practical guidance about climate change adaptation approaches in support of land-use planning Nat. Areas J. 35 2015 190 203
79. H.-U. Schnitzler, and E.K.V. Kalko Echolocation by insect-Eating bats Bioscience 51 2008 557 569
80. M.C. Schoeman, F. Cotterill, P.J. Taylor, and A. Monadjem Using potential distributions to explore environmental correlates of bat species richness in southern Africa: effects of model selection and taxonomy Curr. Zool. 59 2013 279 293
81. M. Schoeman Light pollution at stadiums favors urban exploiter bats Animal Conserv. 2016
82. S.J. Scott, G. McLaren, G. Jones, and S. Harris The impact of riparian habitat quality on the foraging and activity of pipistrelle bats (Pipistrellus spp.) J. Zool. 280 2010 71 378
83. L.A. Shilton, J.D. Altringham, S.G. Compton, and R.J. Whittaker Old World fruit bats can be long-distance seed dispersers through extended retention of viable seeds in the gut Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B: Biol. Sci. 266 1999 219 223
84. S.J. Smith, and T.M.L. Wigley Multi-Gas forcing stabilization with the MiniCAM Energy J. 3 2006 373 391
85. M.J. Struebig, A. Wilting, D.L. Gaveau, E. Meijaard, R.J. Smith, M. Fischer, K. Metcalfe, S. Kramer-Schadt, and B.M.D. Consortium Targeted conservation to safeguard a biodiversity hotspot from climate and land-Cover change Curr. Biol. 25 2015 372 378
86. Taylor, G.K., Carruthers, A.C., Hubel, T.Y., Walker, S.M., 2012. Wing morphing in insects, birds and bats: mechanism and function. Morphing Aerospace vehicles and structures, 11-40.
87. W. Thuiller, B. Lafourcade, R. Engler, and M.B. Araújo BIOMOD-a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions Ecography 32 2009 369 373
88. D.P. Tittensor, M. Walpole, S.L. Hill, D.G. Boyce, G.L. Britten, N.D. Burgess, S.H. Butchart, P.W. Leadley, E.C. Regan, and R. Alkemade A mid-term analysis of progress toward international biodiversity targets Science 346 2014 241 244
89. D.P. Van Vuuren, M.G. Den Elzen, P.L. Lucas, B. Eickhout, B.J. Strengers, B. van Ruijven, S. Wonink, and R. van Houdt Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs Clim. Change 81 2007 119 159
90. P.H. Verburg, S. van Asselen, E.H. van der Zanden, and E. Stehfest The representation of landscapes in global scale assessments of environmental change Landscape Ecol. 28 2013 1067 1080
91. C.C. Voigt, and T. Kingston Bats in the Anthropocene: Conservation of Bats in a Changing World 2016 In. Springer
92. P. Williams, L. Hannah, S. Andelman, G. Midgley, M. AraúJo, G. Hughes, L. Manne, E. Martinez-Meyer, and R. Pearson Planning for climate change: identifying Minimum-Dispersal corridors for the cape proteaceae Conserv. Biol. 19 2005 1063 1074
93. M.R. Willig, D.M. Kaufman, and R.D. Stevens Latitudinal gradients of biodiversity: pattern, process, scale, and synthesis Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 34 2003 273 309
94. D.E. Wilson, and D.M. Reeder Mammal Species of the World: a Taxonomic and Geographic Reference 2005 JHU Press
95. S. van Asselen, and P.H. Verburg Land cover change or land-use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model Global Change Biol. 19 2013 3648 3667
96. 2 concentrations for land use and energy Science 324 2009 1183 1186