Assessment of malaria transmission changes in africa, due to the climate impact of land use change using coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 earth system models

Geospatial Health

Volumn 11, Issue 1S, 2016, Pages

  Tompkins, Adrian M ^a   Caporaso, Luca ^a  

^a ABDUS SALAM INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THEORETICAL PHYSICS   (Italy)

Author keywords

Climate change; Environment; Health; Land use change; Malaria

Indexed keywords

AFRICA; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; GEOGRAPHY; HUMAN; MALARIA; RISK ASSESSMENT; THEORETICAL MODEL; TRANSMISSION;

AFRICA; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; GEOGRAPHY; HUMANS; MALARIA; MODELS, THEORETICAL; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 84962409325     PISSN: 18271987     EISSN: 19707096     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.4081/gh.2016.380     Document Type: Article

References (83)

1. Afrane YA, Lawson BW, Githeko AK, Yan G, 2005. Effects of microclimatic changes caused by land use and land cover on duration of gonotrophic cycles of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) in western Kenya highlands. J Med Entomol 42:974-80.
2. Afrane YA, Zhou G, Lawson BW, Githeko AK, Yan G, 2006. Effects of microclimatic changes caused by deforestation on the survivorship and reproductive fitness of Anopheles gambiae in western Kenya highlands. Am J Trop Med Hyg 74:772-8.
3. Arora V, Boer G, 2010. Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change. Glob Bhange Biol 16:3327-48.
4. Asare EO, Tompkins AM, Amekudzi LK, Ermert V, 2016a. A breeding site model for regional, dynamical malaria simulations evaluated using in situ temporary ponds observations. Geospat Health 11:390.
5. Asare EO, Tompkins AM, Bomblies A, 2016b. Evaluation of a simple puddle breeding site model for malaria vectors using high resolution explicit surface hydrology simulations. PLoS One [In press].
6. Bayoh MN, Lindsay SW, 2003. Effect of temperature on the development of the aquatic stages of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (Diptera: Culicidae). Bull Entomol Res 93:375-81.
7. Bayoh MN, Lindsay SW, 2004. Temperature-related duration of aquatic stages of the Afrotropical malaria vector mosquito Anopheles gambiae in the laboratory. Med Vet Entomol 18:174-9.
8. Bell JP, Tompkins AM, Bouka-Biona C, Sanda IS, 2015. A process-based investigation into the impact of the Congo basin deforestation on surface climate. J Geophys Res 120:5721-39.
9. Bomblies A, Duchemin JB, Eltahir EAB, 2009. A mechanistic approach for accurate simulation of village scale malaria transmission. Malaria J 8:223.
10. Brovkin V, Boysen L, Arora VK, Boisier JP, Cadule P, Chini L, Claussen M, Friedlingstein P, Gayler V, van den Hurk BJJM, Hurtt GC, Jones CD, Kato E, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Pacifico F, Pongratz J, Weiss M, 2013. Effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate and land carbon storage in CMIP5 projections for the twenty-first century. J Climate 26:6859-81.
11. Caminade C, Kovats S, Rocklov J, Tompkins AM, Morse AP, Colón-González FJ, Stenlund H, Martens P, Lloyd SJ, 2014, Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution. P Natl Acad Sci USA 111:3286-91.
12. Cardé RT, Willis MA, 2008. Navigational strategies used by insects to find distant, wind-borne sources of odor. JCE 34:854-66.
13. Carnevale P, Robert V, 1987. Introduction of irrigation in Burkina Faso and its effect on malaria transmission. Effects of agricultural development on vector-borne diseases. FAO Ed., Rome, Italy
14. Craig MH, Snow RW, le Sueur D, 1999. A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Parasitol Today 15:105-11.
15. Ermert V, Fink AH, Jones AE, Morse AP, 2011. Development of a new version of the Liverpool malaria model. I. Refining the parameter settings and mathematical formulation of basic processes based on a literature review. Malaria J 10:35.
16. Ermert V, Fink AH, Morse AP, Paeth H, 2012. The impact of regional climate change on malaria risk due to greenhouse forcing and landuse changes in tropical Africa. Environ Health Perspect 120:77-84.
17. Foley JA, Defries R, Asner GP, Barford C, Bonan G, Carpenter SR, Chapin FS, Coe MT, Daily GC, Gibbs HK, Helkowski JH, Holloway T, Howard EA, Kucharik CJ, Monfreda C, Patz JA, Prentice IC, Ramankutty N, Snyder PK, 2005. Global consequences of land use. Science 309:570-4.
18. Goldewijk KK, Beusen A, Janssen P, 2010. Long-term dynamic modeling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way: Hyde 3.1. Holocene 20:565-73.
19. Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH, 2014. Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations–the CRU TS3. 10 Dataset. Int J Climatol 34:623-42.
20. Henderson-Sellers A, Dickinson RE, Durbidge TB, Kennedy PJ, McGuffie K, Pitman AJ, 1993. Tropical deforestation: modeling local to regional-scale climate change. J Geophys Res 98:7289-15.
21. Hoshen MB, Morse AP, 2004. A weather-driven model of malaria transmission. Malaria J 3:32.
22. Hurtt GC, Chini LP, Frolking S, Betts RA, Feddema J, Fischer G, Fisk JP, Hibbard K, Houghton RA, Janetos A, Jones CD, Kindermann G, Kinoshita T, Goldewijk KK, Riahi K, Shevliakova E, Smith S, Stehfest E, Thomson A, Thornton P, van Vuuren DP, Wang YP, 2011. Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500-2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. Climat Change 109:117-61.
23. Ijumba JN, Lindsay SW, 2008. Impact of irrigation on malaria in Africa: paddies paradox. Med Vet Entomol 15:1-11.
24. IPCC, 2014. Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. 151 pp.
25. Johannes EM, Zulu LC, Kalipeni E, 2015. Oil discovery in Turkana County, Kenya: a source of conflict or development? Afr Geograph Rev 34:142-64.
26. Kay J, Deser C, Phillips A, Mai A, Hannay C, Strand G, Arblaster JM, Bates SC, Danabasoglu G, Edwards J, Holland M, Kushner P, Lamarque JF, Lawrence D, Lindsay K, Middleton A, Munoz E, Neale R, Oleson K, Polvani L, Vertenstein M, 2015. The community earth system model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull Am Meteor Soc 96:1333-49.
27. Keiser J, Utzinger J, De Castro MC, Smith TA, Tanner M, Singer BH, 2004. Urbanization in sub-saharan Africa and implication for malaria control. Am J Trop Med Hyg 71:118-27.
28. Kirby MJ, Lindsay SW, 2009. Effect of temperature and inter-specific competition on the development and survival of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and An. arabiensis larvae. Acta Trop 109:118-23.
29. Klein Goldewijk K, Beusen A, Van Drecht G, De Vos M, 2011. The hyde 3.1 spatially explicit database of human-induced global land-use change over the past 12,000 years. Global Ecol Biogeogr 20:73-86.
30. Krinner G, Viovy N, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Ogée J, Polcher J, Friedlingstein P, Ciais P, Sitch S, Prentice IC, 2005. A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system. Global Biogeochem Cycles 19:GB1015.
31. Lean J, Warrilow DA, 1989. Simulation of the regional climatic impact of Amazon deforestation. Nature 342:411-3.
32. Linard C, Gilbert M, Snow RW, Noor AM, Tatem AJ, 2012. Population distribution, settlement patterns and accessibility across Africa in 2010. PLoS One 7:e31-743.
33. Lindblade KA, Walker ED, Onapa AW, Katungu J, Wilson ML, 2000. Land use change alters malaria transmission parameters by modifying temperature in a highland area of Uganda. Trop Med Int Health 5:263-74.
34. Lindsay S, Schellenberg JA, Zeiler H, Daly R, Salum F, Wilkins H, 1995. Exposure of Gambian children to Anopheles gambiae malaria vectors in an irrigated rice production area. Med Vet Entomol 9:50-8.
35. Lobell D, Bala G, Mirin A, Phillips T, Maxwell R, Rotman D, 2009. Regional differences in the influence of irrigation on climate. J Climate 22:2248-55.
36. Lowe R, Chirombo J, Tompkins AM, 2013. Relative importance of climatic, geographic and socio-economic determinants of malaria in Malawi. Malaria J 12:416.
37. Lunde TM, Bayoh MN, Lindtjørn B, 2013a. How malaria models relate temperature to malaria transmission. Parasite Vector 6:1-10.
38. Lunde TM, Korecha D, Loha E, Sorteberg A, Lindtjørn B, 2013b. A dynamic model of some malaria-transmitting anopheline mosquitoes of the Afrotropical region. I. Model description and sensitivity analysis. Malar J 12:28.
39. Lyons CL, Coetzee M, Terblanche JS, Chown SL, 2014. Desiccation tolerance as a function of age, sex, humidity and temperature in adults of the African malaria vectors Anopheles arabiensis Patton and Anopheles funestus Giles. J Exp Biol 217:3823-33.
40. Martens WJM, Jetten TH, Rottmans J, Niessen LW, 1995a. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a global modelling perspective. Glob Environ Change 5:195-209.
41. Martens WJM, Niessen LW, Rotmans J, Jetten TH, McMichael AJ, 1995b. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk. Environ Health Perspect 103:458-64.
42. Mayne B, 1930. A study of the influence of relative humidity on the life and infectibility of the mosquito. IJMR 17:1119-37.
43. McGuffie K, Henderson-Sellers A, Zhang H, Durbidge TB, Pitman AJ, 1995. Global climate sensitivity to tropical deforestation. Global Planet Change 10:97-128.
44. Meehl GA, Moss R, Taylor KE, Eyring V, Stouffer RJ, Bony S, Stevens B, 2014. Climate model intercomparisons: preparing for the next phase. EOS Trans Am Geophys U 95:77-8.
45. Minakawa N, Munga S, Atieli F, Mushinzimana E, Zhou G, Githeko AK, Yan G, 2005. Spatial distribution of anopheline larval habitats in Western Kenyan highlands: effects of land cover types and topography. Am J Trop Med Hyg 73:157-65.
46. Mordecai EA, Paaijmans KP, Johnson LR, Balzer C, Ben-Horin T, de Moor E, McNally A, Pawar S, Ryan SJ, Smith TC, Lafferty KD, 2013. Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted. Ecol Lett 16:22-30.
47. Mukiama TK, Mwangi RW, 1989. Seasonal population changes and malaria transmission potential of Anopheles pharoensis and the minor anophelines in Mwea irrigation scheme, Kenya. Acta Trop 46:181-9.
48. Munga S, Yakob L, Mushinzimana E, Zhou G, Ouna T, Minakawa N, Githeko A, Yan G, 2009. Land use and land cover changes and spatiotemporal dynamics of anopheline larval habitats during a fouryear period in a highland community of Africa. Am J Trop Med Hyg 81:1079-84.
49. Mutuku FM, Bayoh MN, Hightower AW, Vulule JM, Gimnig JE, Mueke JM, Amimo FA, Walker ED, 2009. A supervised land cover classification of a western Kenya lowland endemic for human malaria: associations of land cover with larval Anopheles habitats. Int J Health Geographics 8:19.
50. Nobre C, Sellers P, Shukla J, 1991. Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change. J Climate 4:957-88.
51. Nogherotto R, Coppola E, Giorgi F, Mariotti L, 2013. Impact of Congo basin deforestation on the African monsoon. Atmos Sci Lett 14:45-51.
52. Norris DE, 2004. Mosquito-borne diseases as a consequence of land use change. Eco Health 1:19-24.
53. Omumbo JA, Hay SI, Snow RW, Tatem AJ, Rogers DJ, 2005. Modelling malaria risk in East Africa at high-spatial resolution. Trop Med Int Health 10:557-66.
54. Paaijmans KP, Wandago MO, Githeko AK, Takken W, 2007. Unexpected high losses of Anopheles gambiae larvae due to rainfall. PLoS One 2:e1146.
55. Packard RM, 2007. The making of a tropical disease: a short history of malaria. Johns Hopkins University Press, 296 pp.
56. Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA, 2005. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438:310-7.
57. Patz JA, Olson SH, 2006. Malaria risk and temperature: influences from global climate change and local land use practices. P Natl Acad Sci USA 103:5635-6.
58. Piontek F, Müller C, Pugh TA, Clark DB, Deryng D, Elliott J, Colón González Fde J, Flörke M, Folberth C, Franssen W, Frieler K, Friend AD, Gosling SN, Hemming D, Khabarov N, Kim H, Lomas MR, Masaki Y, Mengel M, Morse A, Neumann K, Nishina K, Ostberg S, Pavlick R, Ruane AC, Schewe J, Schmid E, Stacke T, Tang Q, Tessler ZD, Tompkins AM, Warszawski L, Wisser D, Schellnhuber HJ, 2014. Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. P Natl Acad Sci USA 111:3233-8.
59. Pitman A, de Noblet-Ducoudre N, Cruz FT, Davin EL, Bonan GB, Brovkin V, Claussen M, Delire C, Ganzeveld L, Gayler V, van den Hurk BJJM, Lawrence PJ, MK van der Molen, Muller C, Reick CH, Seneviratne SI, Strengers BJ, Voldoire A, 2009. Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: first results from the LUCID intercomparison study. Geophys Res Lett 36:L14814.
60. Polcher J, Laval K, 1994. The impact of African and Amazonian deforestation on tropical climate. J Hydrol 155:389-405.
61. Raddatz T, Reick CH, Knorr W, Kattge J, Roeckner E, Schnur R, Schnitzler KG, Wetzel P, Jungclaus J, 2007. Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate-carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century? Clim Dyn 29:565-74.
62. Riahi K, Rao S, Krey V, Cho C, Chirkov V, Fischer G, Kindermann G, Nakicenovic N, Rafaj P, 2011. RCP 8.5 - A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Climatic Change 109:33-57.
63. Sato H, Itoh A, Kohyama T, 2007. SEIB–DGVM: A new dynamic global vegetation model using a spatially explicit individual-based approach. Ecol Mod 200:279-307.
64. Shukla J, Nobre C, Sellers P, 1990. Amazon deforestation and climate change. Science 247:1322.
65. Tatem AJ, Noor AM, Von Hagen C, Di Gregorio A, Hay SI, 2007. High resolution population maps for low income nations: combining land cover and census in East Africa. PLoS One 2:e1298.
66. Tatem AJ, Smith DL, 2010. International population movements and regional Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies. P Natl Acad Sci 107:12222-7.
67. Taylor CM, Lambin EF, Stephenne N, Harding RJ, Essery RLH, 2002. The influence of land use change on climate in the Sahel. J Climate 15:3615-29.
68. Thomson MC, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Mason SJ, Hagedorn R, Connor SJ, Phindela T, Morse AP, Palmer TN, 2006. Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles. Nature 439:576-9.
69. Tompkins AM, Caporaso L, Biondi R, Bell JP, 2015. A generalized deforestation and land-use change scenario generator for use in climate modelling studies. PLoS One 10:e0136154.
70. Tompkins AM, Di Giuseppe F, 2015. Potential predictability of malaria using ECMWF monthly and seasonal climate forecasts in Africa. J Appl Meteor Clim 54:521-40.
71. Tompkins AM, Di Giuseppe F, Colo-González FJ, Namanya DB, 2016a. A planned operational malaria early warning system for Uganda provides useful district-scale predictions up to 4 months ahead. Climate services for health: Case studies of enhancing decision support for climate risk management and adaptation. Shumake-Guillemot J, Fernandez-Montoya L, Eds. WHO/WMO Geneva. (In press).
72. Tompkins AM, Ermert V, 2013. A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology. Malaria J 12:65.
73. Tompkins AM, Larsen L, McCreesh N, Taylor DM, 2016b. To what extent does climate explain variations in reported malaria cases in early 20th century Uganda? Geospat Health 11:407.
74. Tompkins AM, McCreesh N, 2016. Migration statistics relevant for malaria transmission in Senegal derived from mobile phone data and used in an agent-based migration model. Geospat Health 11:408.
75. Tuno N, Okeka W, Minakawa N, Takagi M, Yan G, 2005. Survivorship of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (Diptera: Culicidae) larvae in western Kenya highland forest. J Med Entomol 42:270-7.
76. Van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, den Elzen MJG, Kram T, van Vliet J, Deetman S, Isaac M, Klein Goldewijk K, Hof A, Mendoza Beltran A, Oostenrijk R, van Ruijven B, 2011a. RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2C. Climatic Change 109:95-116.
77. Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque JF, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, ì Smith SJ, Rose SK, 2011b. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change 109:5-31.
78. Vanwambeke SO, Lambin EF, Eichhorn MP, Flasse SP, Harbach RE, Oskam L, Somboon P, van Beers S, van Benthem BHB, Walton C, RK Butlin, 2007. Impact of land-use change on dengue and malaria in northern Thailand. EcoHealth 4:37-51.
79. Wallace DI, Southworth BS, Shi X, Chipman JW, Githeko AK, 2014. A comparison of five malaria transmission models: benchmark tests and implications for disease control. Malaria J 13:1-16.
80. Walsh JF, Molyneux DH, Birley MH, 1993. Deforestation: effects on vector-borne disease. Parasitology 106:S55-75.
81. Wesolowski A, Eagle N, Tatem AJ, Smith DL, Noor AM, Snow RW, Buckee CO, 2012. Quantifying the impact of human mobility on malaria. Science 338:267-70.
82. Yasuoka J, Levins R, 2007. Impact of deforestation and agricultural development on anopheline ecology and malaria epidemiology. Am J Trop Med Hyg 76:450-60.
83. Zhang H, Henderson-Sellers A, McGuffie K, 1996. Impacts of tropical deforestation. part i: Process analysis of local climatic change. J Climate 9:1497-517.