To what extent does climate explain variations in reported malaria cases in early 20th Century Uganda?

Geospatial Health

Volumn 11, Issue 1S, 2016, Pages

  Tompkins, Adrian M ^a   Larsen, Laragh ^b   McCreesh, Nicky ^c   Taylor, David ^d  

^a ABDUS SALAM INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THEORETICAL PHYSICS   (Italy)

^b TRINITY COLLEGE DUBLIN   (Ireland)

^c LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE   (United Kingdom)

^d NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE   (Singapore)

Author keywords

Africa; Archive; Model; Variability and change; Vector borne disease

Indexed keywords

RAIN;

CLIMATE; HUMAN; MALARIA; RISK FACTOR; TEMPERATURE; TIME FACTOR; UGANDA;

CLIMATE; HUMANS; MALARIA; RAIN; RISK FACTORS; TEMPERATURE; TIME FACTORS; UGANDA;

EID: 85008688093     PISSN: 18271987     EISSN: 19707096     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.4081/GH.2016.407     Document Type: Article

References (96)

1. Alonso D, Bouma MJ, Pascual M, 2011. Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 278:1661-9.
2. Annual Medical and Sanitary Reports, 1929. Uganda Sessional Papers - CO685. The National Archives London, London, UK.
3. Annual Medical and Sanitary Reports, 1932. Uganda Sessional Papers - CO685. The National Archives London, London, UK.
4. Annual Medical and Sanitary Reports, 1934. Uganda Sessional Papers - CO685. The National Archives London, London, UK.
5. Annual Medical and Sanitary Reports, 1944. Uganda Sessional Papers - CO685. The National Archives London, London, UK.
6. Annual Medical and Sanitary Reports, 1947. Uganda Sessional Papers - CO685. The National Archives London, London, UK.
7. Annual Medical and Sanitary Reports, 1949. Uganda Sessional Papers - CO685. The National Archives London, London, UK.
8. Annual Medical and Sanitary Reports, 1951. Uganda Sessional Papers - CO685. The National Archives London, London, UK.
9. Annual Medical and Sanitary Reports, 1952. Uganda Sessional Papers - CO685. The National Archives London, London, UK.
10. Annual Medical and Sanitary Reports, 1958. Uganda Sessional Papers - CO685. The National Archives London, London, UK.
11. Annual Medical and Sanitary Reports, 1960. Uganda Sessional Papers - CO685. The National Archives London, London, UK.
12. Asare E, Tompkins AM, Bomblies A, 2016a. Evaluation of a simple puddle breeding site model for malaria vectors using high resolution explicit surface hydrology simulations. PLoS One (in press).
13. Asare EO, Tompkins AM, Amekudzi LK, Ermert V, 2016b. A model for the evolution of temporary mosquito breeding sites evaluated with in situ observations in Ghana. Geospat Health 11:390.
14. Atieli H, Menya D, Githeko A, Scott T, 2009. House design modifications reduce indoor resting malaria vector densities in rice irrigation scheme area in western Kenya. Malaria J 8:108.
15. Ault SK, 1993. Environmental management: A re-emerging vector control strategy. Am J Trop Med Hyg 50(Suppl. 6):35-49.
16. Bayoh MN, Lindsay SW, 2003. Effect of temperature on the development of the aquatic stages of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (Diptera: Culicidae). Bull Entomol Res 93:375-81.
17. Bayoh MN, Lindsay SW, 2004. Temperature-related duration of aquatic stages of the Afrotropical malaria vector mosquito Anopheles gambiae in the laboratory. Med Vet Entomol 18:174-9.
18. Beck A, 1970. A history of the British medical administration of East Africa, 1900-1950. Ph.D. thesis. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, USA.
19. Birkett C, Murtugudde R, Allan T, 1999. Indian Ocean climate event brings floods to east Africa’s lakes and the Sudd marsh. Geophys Res Lett 26:1031-4.
20. Black E, Slingo J, Sperber KR, 2003. An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal east Africa and Indian Ocean sst. Mon Weather Rev 131:74-94.
21. Bødker R, Kisinza W, Malima R, Msangeni H, Lindsay S, 2000. Resurgence of malaria in the Usambara mountains, Tanzania, an epidemic of drug-resistant parasites. Glob Chan Hum Health 1:134-53.
22. Bradley R, Diaz H, Kiladis G, Eischeid J, 1987. ENSO signal in continental temperature and precipitation records. Nature 327:497-501.
23. Caminade C, Kovats S, Rocklov J, Tompkins AM, Morse AP, Colón-González FJ, Stenlund H, Martens P, Lloyd SJ, 2014. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution. P Natl Acad Sci USA 111:3286-91.
24. Carswell G, 2003. Continuities in environmental narratives: The case of Kabale, Uganda, 1930-2000. Environ Hist Camb 9:3-29.
25. Carswell G, 2007. Cultivating success in Uganda: Kigezi farmers and colonial policies. James Currey Publ., Martlesham, UK.
26. Carter R, Mendis KN, 2002. Evolutionary and historical aspects of the burden of malaria. Clin Microb Rev 15:564-94.
27. Christy JR, 2013. Monthly temperature observations for Uganda. J Appl Meteorol Clim 52:2363-72.
28. Cox J, Hay SI, Abeku TA, Checchi F, Snow RW, 2007. The uncertain burden of Plasmodium falciparum epidemics in Africa. Trends Parasitol 23:142-8.
29. Craig MH, Snow RW, le Sueur D, 1999. A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Parasitol Today 15:105-11.
30. Depinay JM, Mbogo CM, Killeen G, Knols B, Beier J, Carlson J, Dushoff J, Billingsley P, Mwambi H, Githure J, Toure AM, McKenzie FE, 2004. A simulation model of African Anopheles ecology and population dynamics for the analysis of malaria transmission. Malaria J 3:29.
31. De Zulueta J, Kafuko G, Cullen J, Pedersen C, 1961. The results of the first year of a malaria eradication pilot project in Northern Kigezi (Uganda). East African Med J 38:1-26.
32. De Zulueta J, Kafuko G, McCrae A, Cullen J, Pedersen C, Wasswa D, 1964. A malaria eradication experiment in the highlands of Kigezi (Uganda). East African Med J 41:102.
33. Doyal L, Pennell I, 1979. The political economy of health. Pluto Press, London, UK.
34. Eckhoff PA, 2011. A malaria transmission-directed model of mosquito life cycle and ecology. Malaria J 10:10.
35. Ermert V, Fink AH, Morse AP, Paeth H, 2012. The impact of regional climate change on malaria risk due to greenhouse forcing and land-use changes in tropical Africa. Environ Health Persp 120:77-84.
36. Findlay GM, 1946. The internal combustion engine and the spread of disease. Brit Med J 2:979-82.
37. Fontaine RE, Najjar AE, Prince JS, 1961. The 1958 malaria epidemic in Ethiopia. Am J Trop Med Hyg 10:795-803.
38. Garnham PC, 1945. Malaria epidemics at exceptionally high altitudes. Brit Med J 2:45.
39. Garnham PC, Wilson DB, Wilson ME, 1948. Malaria in Kigezi, Uganda. J Trop Med Hyg 51:156-9.
40. Gething PW, DL Smith, AP Patil, AJ Tatem, RW Snow, SI Hay, 2010. Climate change and the global malaria recession. Nature 465:342-5.
41. Githeko AK, Shiff KN, 2005. The history of malaria control in Africa: Lessons learned and future perspectives. Taylor & Francis, London, UK.
42. Goddard L, Graham NE, 1999. Importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating rainfall anomalies over eastern and southern Africa. J Geophys Res 104:19.
43. Goldewijk KK, Battjes JJ, 1997. A hundred year (1890-1990) database for integrated environmental assessments (HYDE, version 1.1). Available from: Www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/422514002.pdf
44. Goldewijk KK, Beusen A, Janssen P, 2010. Long-term dynamic modeling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way: Hyde 3.1. The Holocene 20:565-73.
45. Hay SI, Cox J, Rogers DJ, Randolph SE, Stern DI, Shanks GD, Myers MF, Snow RW, 2002a. Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands. Nature 415:905-9.
46. Hay SI, Rogers DJ, Randolph SE, Stern DI, Cox J, Shanks GD, Snow RW, 2002b. Hot topic or hot air? Climate change and malaria resurgence in East African highlands. Trends Parasitol 18:530-4.
47. Himeidan YE, Kweka EJ, 2012. Malaria in East African highlands during the past 30 years: Impact of environmental changes. Front Physiol 3:315.
48. Hoshen MB, Morse AP, 2004. A weather-driven model of malaria transmission. Malaria J 3:32.
49. Jones AE, Morse AP, 2010. Application and validation of a seasonal ensemble prediction system using a dynamic malaria model. J Clim 23:4202-15.
50. Jones AE, Morse AP, 2012. Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa. Geophys Res Lett 39:707.
51. Kaplan A, Cane MA, Kushnir Y, Clement AC, Blumenthal MB, Rajagopalan B, 1998. Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991. J Geophys Res 103:567-8.
52. Kelly-Hope L, McKenzie FE, 2009. The multiplicity of malaria transmission: A review of entomological inoculation rate measurements and methods across sub-Saharan Africa. Malaria J 8:19.
53. Kienberger S, Hagenlocher M, 2014. Spatial-explicit modeling of social vulnerability to malaria in East Africa. Int J Health Geogr 13:29.
54. Kilian A, Langi P, Talisuna A, Kabagambe G, 1999. Rainfall pattern. El Niño and malaria in Uganda. T Roy Soc Trop Med H 93:22-3.
55. Kitron U, Spielman A, 1989. Suppression of transmission of malaria through source reduction: Antianopheline measures applied in Israel, the United States, and Italy. Rev Infect Dis 11:391-406.
56. Konradsen F, van der Hoek W, Amerasinghe FP, Mutero C, Boelee E, 2004. Engineering and malaria control: Learning from the past 100 years. Acta Trop 89:99-108.
57. Latif M, Dommenget D, Dima M, Grötzner A, 1999. The role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature in forcing east African rainfall anomalies during December-January 1997/98. J Climate 12:3497-504.
58. Lindblade KA, Walker ED, Onapa AW, Katungu J, Wilson ML, 1999. Highland malaria in Uganda: Prospective analysis of an epidemic associated with El Niño. T Roy Soc Trop Med H 93:480-7.
59. Lindblade KA, Walker ED, Onapa AW, Katungu J, Wilson ML, 2000. Land use change alters malaria transmission parameters by modifying temperature in a highland area of Uganda. Trop Med Int Health 5:263-74.
60. Lindsay SW, Emerson PM, Charlwood JD, 2002. Reducing malaria by mosquito-proofing houses. Trends Parasitol 18:510-4.
61. Lindsay SW, Martens WJ, 1998. Malaria in the African highlands: Past, present and future. B World Health Organ 76:33-45.
62. Lunde TM, Korecha D, Loha E, Sorteberg A, Lindtjørn B, 2013. A dynamic model of some malaria-transmitting anopheline mosquitoes of the Afrotropical region. I. Model description and sensitivity analysis. Malaria J 12:1.
63. Lwetoijera DW, Kiware SS, Mageni ZD, Dongus S, Harris C, Devine GJ, Majambere S, 2013. A need for better housing to further reduce indoor malaria transmission in areas with high bed net coverage. Parasite Vector 6:57.
64. MacLeod DA, Jones A, Di Giuseppe F, Caminade C, Morse AP, 2015. Demonstration of successful malaria forecasts for Botswana using an operational seasonal climate model. Environ Res Lett 10:044005.
65. Mandal S, Sarkar RR, Sinha S, 2011. Mathematical models of malaria. A review. Malaria J 10:202.
66. Martens P, Hall L, 2000. Malaria on the move: Human population movement and malaria transmission. Emerg Infect Dis 6:103-9.
67. Matson A, 1957. The history of malaria in Nandi. East African Med J 34:431.
68. McCrae AWR, 1975. Malaria. In: Hall SA, Langlands BW, eds. Uganda atlas of disease distribution. East African Publishing House, Nairobi, Kenya, pp 30-5.
69. Morris HF, 1978. Introduction. In: Rubin N, ed. Annual departmental reports relating to Uganda. EP Microform Ltd, Wakefield, UK. Available from: Images.crl.edu/135.pdf
70. Mouchet J, Manguin S, Sircoulon J, Laventure S, Faye O, Onapa AW, Carnevale P, Julvez J, Fontenille D, 1998. Evolution of malaria in Africa for the past 40 years: Impact of climatic and human factors. J Am Mosquito Contr 14:121-30.
71. Nkurunziza H, Gebhardt A, Pilz J, 2011. Geo-additive modelling of malaria in Burundi. Malaria J 10:1-7.
72. Omumbo JA, Lyon B, Waweru SM, Connor SJ, Thomson MC, 2011. Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: Revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate. Malaria J 10:12.
73. Pascual M, Ahumada JA, Chaves LF, Rodó X, Bouma M, 2006. Malaria resurgence in the East African Highlands: Temperature trends revisited. P Natl Acad Sci USA 103:5829-34.
74. Pascual M, Cazelles B, Bouma MJ, Chaves LF, Koelle K, 2008. Shifting patterns: Malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 275:123-32.
75. Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA, 2005. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438:310-7.
76. Piontek F, Müller C, Pugh TA, Clark DB, Deryng D, Elliott J, Colón González Fde J, Flörke M, Folberth C, Franssen W, Frieler K, Friend AD, Gosling SN, Hemming D, Khabarov N, Kim H, Lomas MR, Masaki Y, Mengel M, Morse A, Neumann K, Nishina K, Ostberg S, Pavlick R, Ruane AC, Schewe J, Schmid E, Stacke T, Tang Q, Tessler ZD, Tompkins AM, Warszawski L, Wisser D, Schellnhuber HJ, 2014. Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. P Natl Acad Sci USA 111:3233-8.
77. Prothero RM, 1961. Population movements and problems of malaria eradication in Africa. B World Health Organ 24:405.
78. Roberts J, 1956. Pyrimethamine (Daraprim) in the control of epidemic malaria. J Trop Med Hyg 59:201.
79. Roberts J, 1964. The control of epidemic malaria in the highlands of western Kenya. I. Before the campaign. J Trop Med Hyg 67:161.
80. Sevilla-Casas E, 1993. Human mobility and malaria risk in the Naya river basin of Colombia. Soc Sci Med 37:1155-67.
81. Shanks GD, Hay SI, Omumbo JA, Snow RW, 2005. Malaria in Kenya’s western highlands. Emerg Infect Dis 11:1425.
82. Siraj AS, Santos-Vega M, Bouma MJ, Yadeta D, Carrascal DR, Pascual M, 2014. Altitudinal changes in malaria incidence in highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia. Science 343:1154-8.
83. Steyn J, 1946. The effect on the anopheline fauna of cultivation of swamps in Kigezi district, Uganda. East African Med J 23:163-9.
84. Talisuna AO, Noor AM, Okui AP, Snow RW, 2015. The past, present and future use of epidemiological intelligence to plan malaria vector control and parasite prevention in Uganda. Malaria J 14:158.
85. Tatem AJ, 2014. Mapping population and pathogen movements. Int Health 6:5-11.
86. Tatem AJ, Smith DL, 2010. International population movements and regional Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies. P Natl Acad Sci USA 107:222-7.
87. Tatem AJ, Adamo S, Bharti N, Burgert CR, Castro M, Dorelien A, Fink G, Linard C, John M, Montana L, Montgomery MR, Nelson A, Noor AM, Pindolia D, Yetman G, Balk D, 2012. Mapping populations at risk: Improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation. Popul Health Metr 10:8.
88. Thomson MC, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Mason SJ, Hagedorn R, Connor SJ, Phindela T, Morse AP, Palmer TN, 2006. Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles. Nature 439:576-9.
89. Tompkins AM, Di Giuseppe F, 2015. Potential predictability of malaria using ECMWF monthly and seasonal climate forecasts in Africa. J Appl Meteor Clim 54:521-40.
90. Tompkins AM, Ermert V, 2013. A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology. Malaria J 12:65.
91. Tompkins AM, McCreesh N, 2016. Migration statistics relevant for malaria transmission in Senegal derived from mobile phone data and used in an agent-based migration model. Geospat Health 11:408.
92. Venzke S, Latif M, Villwock A, 2000. The coupled GCM ECHO-2. Part ii: Indian ocean response to enso. J Climate 13:1371-83.
93. Verdon DC, Franks SW, 2005. Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variability and winter rainfall: Eastern Australia. Water Resour Res 41:1-10.
94. Walker K, Lynch M, 2007. Contributions of Anopheles larval control to malaria suppression in tropical Africa: Review of achievements and potential. Med Vet Entomol 21:2-21.
95. Wandiga SO, Opondo M, Olago D, Githeko A, Githui F, Marshall M, Downs T, Opere A, Oludhe C, Ouma GO, Yanda PZ, Kangalawe R, Kabumbuli R, Kathuri J, Apindi E, Olaka L, Ogallo L, Mugambi P, Sigalla R, Nanyunja R, Baguma T, Achola P, 2010. Vulnerability to epidemic malaria in the highlands of Lake Victoria basin: The role of climate change/variability, hydrology and socio-economic factors. Climatic Change 99:473-97.
96. Wesolowski A, Eagle N, Tatem AJ, Smith DL, Noor AM, Snow RW, Buckee CO, 2012. Quantifying the impact of human mobility on malaria. Science 338:267-70.