DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events

Climatic Change

Volumn 136, Issue 2, 2016, Pages 155-174

  Hannart, A ^a   Carrassi, A ^b   Bocquet, M ^c   Ghil, M ^d,e   Naveau, P ^f   Pulido, M ^g   Ruiz, J ^a   Tandeo, P ^h  

^a CNRS CONICET UBA ^*  (Argentina)

^b NANSEN ENVIRONMENTAL AND REMOTE SENSING CENTER   (Norway)

^c EDF R AND D   (France)

^d ECOLE NORMALE SUPÉRIEURE   (France)

^e UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^f LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

^g UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DEL NORDESTE   (Argentina)

^h ECOLE DES MINES DE NANTES   (France)

Author keywords

Causality theory; Data assimilation; Event attribution; Modified Lorenz model

Indexed keywords

COMPUTATION THEORY; METEOROLOGY;

ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS; CAUSAL ATTRIBUTIONS; CAUSALITY THEORY; DATA ASSIMILATION; DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTIONS; EVENT ATTRIBUTION; LORENZ MODEL; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

DATA ASSIMILATION; NUMERICAL METHOD; NUMERICAL MODEL; REAL TIME; THEORY; WEATHER; WEATHER FORECASTING; WEATHER STATION;

EID: 84961830181     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: 15731480     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1595-3     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Allen MR (2003) Liability for climate change. Nature 421:891–892
2. Baum LE, Petrie T, Soules G, Weiss N (1970) A maximization technique occurring in the statistical analysis of probabilistic functions of Markov chains. Ann Math Stat 41(1):164–171
3. Balmaseda MA, Alves OJ, Arribas A, Awaji T, Behringer DW, Ferry N, Fujii Y, Lee T, Rienecker M, Rosati T, Stammer D (2009) Ocean initialization for seasonal forecasts. Oceanography Special Issue 22(3)
4. Bengtsson L, Ghil M, Källén E (1981) Dynamic meteorology: Data assimilation methods. Springer-Verlag, New York
5. Bhend J, Franke J, Folini D, Wild M, Brönnimann S (2012) An ensemble-based approach to climate reconstructions. Clim Past 8:963–976
6. Bocquet M, Pires CA, Wu L (2010) Beyond Gaussian statistical modeling in geophysical data assimilation. Mon Wea Rev 138:2997–3023
7. Bocquet M (2012) Parameter-field estimation for atmospheric dispersion: application to the Chernobyl accident using 4D-Var. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 138:664–681
8. Bucklew JA (2004) Introduction to rare event simulation. Springer
9. Carrassi A, Vannitsem S (2010) Model error and variational data assimilation: A deterministic formulation. Mon Wea Rev 138:3369–3386
10. Carrassi A, Ghil M, Trevisan A, Uboldi F (2008) Data assimilation as a nonlinear dynamical systems problem: Stability and convergence of the prediction-assimilation system. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 18(2):023–112
11. Chekroun MD, Simonnet E, Ghil M (2011) Stochastic climate dynamics: Random attractors and time-dependent invariant measures. Phys D 240(21):1685–1700. doi:10.1016/j.physd.2011.06.005
12. Chevallier F (2013) On the parallelization of atmospheric inversions of CO2 surface fluxes within a variational framework. Geosci Model Dev Discuss 6:37–57
13. Christidis N, Stott PA, Scaife A A, Arribas A, Jones G S, Copsey D, Knight J R, Tennant W J (2013) A New HadGEM3-A-Based System for Attribution of Weather- and Climate-Related Extreme Events. J Clim 26(9):2756–2783
14. Cosme E, Brankart JM, Verron J, Brasseur P, Krysta M (2006) Implementation of a reduced-rank, square-root smoother for ocean data assimilation. Ocean Model 33:87–100
15. Dalcher A, Kalnay E, Hoffman RN (1988) Medium-range lagged average forecasts. Mon Wea Rev 116:402–416. doi:10.1175/1520-0493. 1988116<0402:MRLAF>2.0.CO;2.
16. Del Moral P, Garnier J (2005) Genealogical particle analysis of rare events. Ann Appl Probab 15(4):2496–2534
17. Evensen G (2003) The ensemble Kalman filter: theoretical formulation and practical implementation. Ocean Dyn 53:343–367
18. Gardiner C (2004) Handbook of stochastic methods for physics, Chemistry and the natural sciences. Publisher. Pls.; no web tonite
19. Gelb A (1974) Applied optimal estimation. M.I.T. Press, Cambridge
20. Ghil M, Childress S (1987) Topics in geophysical fluid dynamics: Atmospheric dynamics, dynamo theory and climate dynamics. Springer-Verlag, New York, p 485
21. Ghil M, Malanotte-Rizzoli P (1991) Data assimilation in meteorology and oceanography. Adv Geophys 33:141–266
22. Ghil M, Cohn S, Tavantzis J, Bube K, Isaacson E (1981). In: Bengtsson L, Ghil M, Källén E (eds) Applications of estimation theory to numerical weather prediction. In: Dynamic meteorology: Data assimilation methods. Springer Verlag, pp 139–224
23. Gini C (1921) Measurement of inequality of incomes. Econ J 31(121):124–126. doi:10.2307/2223319
24. Greenland S, Rothman KJ (1998) Measures of effect and measures of association, Chapter 4. In: Rothman K J, Greenland S (eds) Modern Epidemiology, 2nd edn.,Lippincott-Raven, Philadelphia, USA
25. Hannart A, Pearl J, Otto FEL, Naveau P, Ghil M (2015) Counterfactual causality theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. in press
26. Harris T E, Kahn H (1951) Estimation of particle transmission by random sampling. Natl Bur Stand Appl Math Ser 12:27–30
27. Heidelberg P (1995) Fast simulation of rare events in queueing and reliability models. ACM Trans Models Comput Simul 5:43–85
28. Hewitt C, Mason S, Walland D (2012) The global framework for climate services. Nat Clim Change 2:831–832
29. Hoffman RN, Kalnay E (1983) Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting. Tellus 35A:100–118. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.1983.tb00189.x
30. Houtekamer PL, Mitchell HL, Pellerin G, Buehner M, Charron M (2005) Atmospheric data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter: Results with real observations. Mon Wea Rev 133:604–620
31. Hürzeler M, Künsch HR (2001). In: Doucet A, De Freitas JFG, Gordon NJ (eds) Approximation and maximising the likelihood for a general state-space model. In: Sequential Monte Carlo Methods Practice. Springer-Verlag, New York
32. Ide K, Courtier P, Ghil M, Lorenc A (1997) Unified notation for data assimilation: Operational, sequential and variational. J Meteor Soc Japan 75:181–189
33. Ihler AT, Kirshner S, Ghil M, Robertson AW, Smyth P (2007) Graphical models for statistical inference and data assimilation. Phys D 230:72–87
34. Jazwinski AH (1970) Stochastic and filtering theory. Mathematics in sciences and engineering series 64:376
35. Kalman RE (1960) A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems. J Basic Eng 82D:33– 45
36. Kantas N, Doucet A, Singh SS, Maciejowski JM (2009) An overview of sequential Monte Carlo methods for parameter estimation. In: General state-space models, IFAC System Identification, no. Ml
37. Kondrashov D, Sun CJ, Ghil M (2008) Data assimilation for a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Part II: Parameter estimation. Mon Wea Rev 136:5062–5076. doi:10.1175/2008MWR2544.1
38. Kondrashov D, Shprits Y, Ghil M (2011) Log-normal Kalman filter for assimilating phase-space density data in the radiation belts. Space Weather 9:S11006. doi:10.1029/2011SW000726
39. Lee TCK, Zwiers FW, Tsao M (2008) Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods. Climate Dyn 31:263–281
40. Lorenz EN (1963) Deterministic non-periodic flow. J Atmos Sci 20:130–141
41. Lorenz MO (1905) Methods of measuring the concentration of wealth. Publications of the American Statistical Association 9(70):209–219. doi:10.2307/2276207
42. Martin MJ, et al. (2014) Status and future of data assimilation in operational oceanography. J of Oper Ocean. in press
43. Massey N, Jones R, Otto FEL, Aina T, Wilson S, Murphy JM, Hassell D, Yamazaki YH, Allen MR (2014) weather@home — development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution. Q J R Meteorol Soc. doi:10.1002/qj.2455
44. Otto FEL, Boyd E, Jones RG, Cornforth RJ, James R, Parker HR, Allen MR (2015) Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications. Climatic Change
45. Palmer TN (1999) A non-linear dynamical perspective on climate prediction. J Clim 12:575–591
46. Pearl J (2000) Causality: Models, reasoning and inference. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
47. Pitt MK (2002) Smooth particle filters for likelihood evaluation and maximisation. Warwick Economic Research Papers, No. 651
48. Robert C, Blayo E, Verron J (2006) Comparison of reduced-order sequential, variational and hybrid data assimilation methods in the context of a Tropical Pacific ocean model. Ocean Dyn 56:624–633
49. Roques L, Chekroun MD, Cristofol M, Soubeyrand S, Ghil M (2014) Parameter estimation for energy balance models with memory. Proc R Soc A 470:20140349
50. Ruiz J, Pulido M, Miyoshi T (2013) Estimating model parameters with ensemble-based data assimilation: A review. JMSJ 91(2):79–99
51. Sakov P, Counillon F, Bertino L, Lister KA, Oke PR, Korablev A (2012) TOPAZ4: an ocean-sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic and Arctic. Ocean Sci 8:633–656. doi:10.5194/os-8-633-2012
52. Stone DA, Allen MR (2005) The end-to-end attribution problem: from emissions to impacts. Clim Change 71:303–318
53. Stott PA, et al. (2013). In: Asrar GR, Hurrell J W (eds) Attribution of weather and climate-related events, in: Climate Science for Serving Society: Research, Modelling and Prediction Priorities. Springer. in press
54. Stott PA, Stone DA, Allen MR (2004) Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 432:610–614
55. Talagrand O (1997) Assimilation of observations, an introduction. J Meteor Soc Japan 75(1B):191–209
56. Tandeo P, Pulido M, Lott F (2014) Offline parameter estimation using EnKF and maximum likelihood error covariance estimates: Application to a subgrid-scale orography parametrization. Q J R Meteorol Soc. doi:10.1002/qj.2357
57. Trenberth K E, Fasullo J T, Shepherd T G (2015) Attribution of climate extreme events. Nature Clim Change 5:725–730
58. Wiener N (1949) Extrapolation, Interpolation and smoothing of stationary time series, with engineering applications. M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, p 163
59. Wouters J, Bouchet F (2015) Rare event simulation of the chaotic Lorenz 96 dynamical system. Geophysical Research Abstracts, EGU General Assembly 2015 Vol. 17, EGU2015-10421-1