메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 29, Issue 3, 2015, Pages 947-958

Regional response of dengue fever epidemics to interannual variation and related climate variability

Author keywords

Climate variability; Dengue; Interannual variation; Mosquito; Statistical indicator; Vector borne diseases

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CLIMATOLOGY; OCEANOGRAPHY; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

EID: 84961327135     PISSN: 14363240     EISSN: 14363259     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-014-0948-6     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (14)

References (63)
  • 1
    • 84876804736 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The global distribution and burden of dengue
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3sXltlOnsLs%3D
    • Bhatt S, Gething PW, Brady OJ et al (2013) The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature 496:504–507
    • (2013) Nature , vol.496 , pp. 504-507
    • Bhatt, S.1    Gething, P.W.2    Brady, O.J.3
  • 2
    • 36049050686 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weather variables and Japanese encephalitis in the metropolitan area of Jinan city, China
    • Bi P, Zhang Y, Parton KA (2007) Weather variables and Japanese encephalitis in the metropolitan area of Jinan city, China. J Infect 55:551–556
    • (2007) J Infect , vol.55 , pp. 551-556
    • Bi, P.1    Zhang, Y.2    Parton, K.A.3
  • 3
    • 58849120172 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Turning back from the brink: detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1MXht1Kjsbw%3D
    • Biggs R, Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2009) Turning back from the brink: detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:826–831
    • (2009) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA , vol.106 , pp. 826-831
    • Biggs, R.1    Carpenter, S.R.2    Brock, W.A.3
  • 4
    • 44349136271 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the roles of temperature, precipitation, and ENSO in dengue re-emergence on the Texas-Mexico border region
    • Brunkard JM, Cifuentes E, Rothenberg SJ (2008) Assessing the roles of temperature, precipitation, and ENSO in dengue re-emergence on the Texas-Mexico border region. Salud Publica Mex 50:227–234
    • (2008) Salud Publica Mex , vol.50 , pp. 227-234
    • Brunkard, J.M.1    Cifuentes, E.2    Rothenberg, S.J.3
  • 5
    • 39049143250 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore
    • Burattini MN, Chen M, Chow A et al (2008) Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore. Epidemiology and Infection 136:309–319
    • (2008) Epidemiology and Infection , vol.136 , pp. 309-319
    • Burattini, M.N.1    Chen, M.2    Chow, A.3
  • 6
    • 33644933342 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition
    • Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2006) Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecol Lett 9:308–315
    • (2006) Ecol Lett , vol.9 , pp. 308-315
    • Carpenter, S.R.1    Brock, W.A.2
  • 7
    • 19344375136 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonstationary influence of El Niño on the synchronous dengue epidemics in Thailand
    • Cazelles B, Chavez M, McMichael AJ, Hales S (2005) Nonstationary influence of El Niño on the synchronous dengue epidemics in Thailand. PLoS Med 2:e106
    • (2005) PLoS Med , vol.2 , pp. e106
    • Cazelles, B.1    Chavez, M.2    McMichael, A.J.3    Hales, S.4
  • 9
    • 84866556070 scopus 로고
    • The primary investigation report of dengue outbreak in southern Taiwan
    • Chen KT, Chou MY, Ma LS (1987) The primary investigation report of dengue outbreak in southern Taiwan. Taiwan Epidemiol Bull 3:93–95
    • (1987) Taiwan Epidemiol Bull , vol.3 , pp. 93-95
    • Chen, K.T.1    Chou, M.Y.2    Ma, L.S.3
  • 10
    • 1942520295 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2cXjtV2mt74%3D
    • Chen D, Cane MA, Kaplan A, Zebiak SE, Huang D (2004) Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature 428:733–736
    • (2004) Nature , vol.428 , pp. 733-736
    • Chen, D.1    Cane, M.A.2    Kaplan, A.3    Zebiak, S.E.4    Huang, D.5
  • 11
    • 77954624442 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Lagged temperature effect with mosquito transmission potential explains dengue variability in southern Taiwan: insights from a statistical analysis
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXptVWnsrc%3D
    • Chen SC, Liao CM, Chio CP, Chou HH, You SH, Cheng YH (2010) Lagged temperature effect with mosquito transmission potential explains dengue variability in southern Taiwan: insights from a statistical analysis. Sci Total Environ 408:4069–4075
    • (2010) Sci Total Environ , vol.408 , pp. 4069-4075
    • Chen, S.C.1    Liao, C.M.2    Chio, C.P.3    Chou, H.H.4    You, S.H.5    Cheng, Y.H.6
  • 12
    • 33646929456 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate-based descriptive models of dengue fever: the 2002 epidemic in Colima, Mexico
    • Chowell G, Sanchez F (2006) Climate-based descriptive models of dengue fever: the 2002 epidemic in Colima, Mexico. J Environ Health 68:40–44
    • (2006) J Environ Health , vol.68 , pp. 40-44
    • Chowell, G.1    Sanchez, F.2
  • 14
    • 0034352901 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global patterns of ENSO-induced precipitation
    • Dai A, Wigley TML (2000) Global patterns of ENSO-induced precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 27:1283–1286
    • (2000) Geophys Res Lett , vol.27 , pp. 1283-1286
    • Dai, A.1    Wigley, T.M.L.2
  • 17
    • 77957147507 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXhtFaqtbvN
    • Drake JM, Griffen BD (2010) Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments. Nature 467:456–459
    • (2010) Nature , vol.467 , pp. 456-459
    • Drake, J.M.1    Griffen, B.D.2
  • 18
    • 84861101517 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Meteorological factors and El Niño Southern Oscillation are independently associated with dengue infections
    • COI: 1:STN:280:DC%2BC38zls1yrtw%3D%3D
    • Earnest A, Tan SB, Wilder-Smith A (2012) Meteorological factors and El Niño Southern Oscillation are independently associated with dengue infections. Epidemiol Infect 140:1244–1251
    • (2012) Epidemiol Infect , vol.140 , pp. 1244-1251
    • Earnest, A.1    Tan, S.B.2    Wilder-Smith, A.3
  • 19
    • 77957003566 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Allergies and diabetes as risk factors for dengue hemorrhagic fever: results of a case control study
    • Figueeiredo MA, Rodrigues LC, Barreto ML et al (2010) Allergies and diabetes as risk factors for dengue hemorrhagic fever: results of a case control study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 4:e699
    • (2010) PLoS Negl Trop Dis , vol.4 , pp. e699
    • Figueeiredo, M.A.1    Rodrigues, L.C.2    Barreto, M.L.3
  • 21
    • 0035936063 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dengue epidemics and the El Niño Southern Oscillation
    • Gagnon AS, Bush ABG, Smoyer-Tomic KE (2001) Dengue epidemics and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Clim Res 19:35–43
    • (2001) Clim Res , vol.19 , pp. 35-43
    • Gagnon, A.S.1    Bush, A.B.G.2    Smoyer-Tomic, K.E.3
  • 22
    • 0031823546 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever
    • COI: 1:STN:280:DyaK1czjtlKluw%3D%3D
    • Gubler DJ (1998) Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever. Clin Microbiol Rev 11:480–496
    • (1998) Clin Microbiol Rev , vol.11 , pp. 480-496
    • Gubler, D.J.1
  • 23
    • 0035024789 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases
    • Gubler DJ, Reiter P, Ebi KL, Yap W, Nasci R, Patz JA (2001) Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases. Environ Health Perspect 109:223–233
    • (2001) Environ Health Perspect , vol.109 , pp. 223-233
    • Gubler, D.J.1    Reiter, P.2    Ebi, K.L.3    Yap, W.4    Nasci, R.5    Patz, J.A.6
  • 24
    • 41849135754 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems
    • Guttal V, Jayaprakash C (2008) Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems. Ecol Lett 11:450–460
    • (2008) Ecol Lett , vol.11 , pp. 450-460
    • Guttal, V.1    Jayaprakash, C.2
  • 25
    • 0030471595 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dengue fever epidemics in the South Pacific: driven by El Niño southern oscillation?
    • COI: 1:STN:280:DyaK2s7itFemsw%3D%3D
    • Hales S, Weinstein P, Woodward A (1996) Dengue fever epidemics in the South Pacific: driven by El Niño southern oscillation? Lancet 348:1664–1665
    • (1996) Lancet , vol.348 , pp. 1664-1665
    • Hales, S.1    Weinstein, P.2    Woodward, A.3
  • 26
    • 0032590083 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • El Niño and the dynamics of vectorborne disease transmission
    • COI: 1:STN:280:DyaK1M7it12gsg%3D%3D
    • Hales S, Weinstein P, Souares Y, Woodward A (1999) El Niño and the dynamics of vectorborne disease transmission. Environ Health Perspect 107:99–102
    • (1999) Environ Health Perspect , vol.107 , pp. 99-102
    • Hales, S.1    Weinstein, P.2    Souares, Y.3    Woodward, A.4
  • 27
    • 0037077864 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model
    • Hales S, de Wet N, Maindonald J, Woodward A (2002) Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model. Lancet 360:830–834
    • (2002) Lancet , vol.360 , pp. 830-834
    • Hales, S.1    de Wet, N.2    Maindonald, J.3    Woodward, A.4
  • 28
    • 40349114934 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dengue virus-mosquito interactions
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1cXht12js7s%3D
    • Halstead SB (2008) Dengue virus-mosquito interactions. Annu Rev Entomol 53:273–291
    • (2008) Annu Rev Entomol , vol.53 , pp. 273-291
    • Halstead, S.B.1
  • 30
    • 77953785379 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dengue fever and El Niño/Southern Oscillation in Queensland, Australia: a time series predictive model
    • Hu WB, Clements A, Williams G, Tong SL (2010) Dengue fever and El Niño/Southern Oscillation in Queensland, Australia: a time series predictive model. Occup Environ Med 67:307–311
    • (2010) Occup Environ Med , vol.67 , pp. 307-311
    • Hu, W.B.1    Clements, A.2    Williams, G.3    Tong, S.L.4
  • 31
    • 0006540633 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparing measures of sample skewness and kurtosis
    • Joanes DN, Gill CA (1998) Comparing measures of sample skewness and kurtosis. Statistician 47(1):183–189
    • (1998) Statistician , vol.47 , Issue.1 , pp. 183-189
    • Joanes, D.N.1    Gill, C.A.2
  • 32
    • 65549154217 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico
    • Johansson MA, Dominid F, Glass GE (2009) Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 3:e382
    • (2009) PLoS Negl Trop Dis , vol.3 , pp. e382
    • Johansson, M.A.1    Dominid, F.2    Glass, G.E.3
  • 33
    • 0002170719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Major epidemics of dengue in Taiwan in 1981–2000: related to intensive virus activities in Asia
    • King CC, Wu YC, Chao DY et al (2000) Major epidemics of dengue in Taiwan in 1981–2000: related to intensive virus activities in Asia. Dengue Bull 24:1–10
    • (2000) Dengue Bull , vol.24 , pp. 1-10
    • King, C.C.1    Wu, Y.C.2    Chao, D.Y.3
  • 35
    • 50849098592 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global spread and persistence of dengue
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1cXht1Gls7zN
    • Kyle JL, Harris E (2008) Global spread and persistence of dengue. Annu Rev Microbiol 62:71–92
    • (2008) Annu Rev Microbiol , vol.62 , pp. 71-92
    • Kyle, J.L.1    Harris, E.2
  • 36
    • 79953012886 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Influence of environmental conditions on asynchronous outbreaks of dengue diseases and increasing vector population in Kaohsiung, Taiwan
    • Lai LW (2011) Influence of environmental conditions on asynchronous outbreaks of dengue diseases and increasing vector population in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Int J Environ Health Res 21:133–146
    • (2011) Int J Environ Health Res , vol.21 , pp. 133-146
    • Lai, L.W.1
  • 38
    • 0141494583 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Status of dengue control programme in Taiwan—2001
    • Lei HY, Huang JH, Huang KJ, Chang C (2002) Status of dengue control programme in Taiwan—2001. Dengue Bull 26:14–23
    • (2002) Dengue Bull , vol.26 , pp. 14-23
    • Lei, H.Y.1    Huang, J.H.2    Huang, K.J.3    Chang, C.4
  • 39
    • 80052248386 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Early warning of climate tipping points
    • Lenton TM (2011) Early warning of climate tipping points. Nature Clim Change 1(4):201–209
    • (2011) Nature Clim Change , vol.1 , Issue.4 , pp. 201-209
    • Lenton, T.M.1
  • 41
    • 34548036505 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system
    • Livina VN, Lenton TM (2007) A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system. Geophys Res Lett 34(3):L03712
    • (2007) Geophys Res Lett , vol.34 , Issue.3 , pp. L03712
    • Livina, V.N.1    Lenton, T.M.2
  • 42
    • 10944252079 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Emerging flaviviruses: the spread and resurgence of Japanese encephalitis, West Nile and dengue viruses
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2cXhtVeht7fL
    • Mackenzie JS, Gubler DJ, Petersen LR (2004) Emerging flaviviruses: the spread and resurgence of Japanese encephalitis, West Nile and dengue viruses. Nat Med 10:S98–S109
    • (2004) Nat Med , vol.10 , pp. S98-S109
    • Mackenzie, J.S.1    Gubler, D.J.2    Petersen, L.R.3
  • 45
    • 33644847197 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change and human health: present and future risk
    • McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S (2006) Climate change and human health: present and future risk. Lancet 367:859–869
    • (2006) Lancet , vol.367 , pp. 859-869
    • McMichael, A.J.1    Woodruff, R.E.2    Hales, S.3
  • 46
    • 27844536963 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of regional climate change on human health
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2MXht1WksbfM
    • Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA (2005) Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438:310–317
    • (2005) Nature , vol.438 , pp. 310-317
    • Patz, J.A.1    Campbell-Lendrum, D.2    Holloway, T.3    Foley, J.A.4
  • 47
    • 54149094863 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dengue reborn widespread resurgence of a resilient vector
    • Phillips ML (2008) Dengue reborn widespread resurgence of a resilient vector. Environ Health Perspect 116:A382–A388
    • (2008) Environ Health Perspect , vol.116 , pp. A382-A388
    • Phillips, M.L.1
  • 48
    • 33646200038 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climatic factors affecting dengue haemorrhagic fever incidence in Southern Thailand
    • Promprou S, Jaroensutasinee M, Jaroensutasinee K (2005) Climatic factors affecting dengue haemorrhagic fever incidence in Southern Thailand. Dengue Bull 29:41–48
    • (2005) Dengue Bull , vol.29 , pp. 41-48
    • Promprou, S.1    Jaroensutasinee, M.2    Jaroensutasinee, K.3
  • 49
    • 0037240731 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Texas lifestyle limits transmission of dengue virus
    • Reiter P, Lathrop S, Bunning ML et al (2003) Texas lifestyle limits transmission of dengue virus. Emerg Infect Dis 9:86–89
    • (2003) Emerg Infect Dis , vol.9 , pp. 86-89
    • Reiter, P.1    Lathrop, S.2    Bunning, M.L.3
  • 50
    • 69949088984 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Early-warning signals for critical transitions
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1MXhtVygsbjI
    • Scheffer MJ, Bascompte J, Brock WA et al (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461:53–59
    • (2009) Nature , vol.461 , pp. 53-59
    • Scheffer, M.J.1    Bascompte, J.2    Brock, W.A.3
  • 53
    • 48249155712 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Correlation of climatic factors and dengue incidence in Metro Manila, Philippines
    • Su GLS (2008) Correlation of climatic factors and dengue incidence in Metro Manila, Philippines. Ambio 37:292–294
    • (2008) Ambio , vol.37 , pp. 292-294
    • Su, G.L.S.1
  • 54
    • 67349154370 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Early warning signals of demographic regime shifts in invading populations
    • Takimoto G (2009) Early warning signals of demographic regime shifts in invading populations. Popul Ecol 51:419–426
    • (2009) Popul Ecol , vol.51 , pp. 419-426
    • Takimoto, G.1
  • 55
    • 37549004754 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Environmental factors and incidence of dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever in an urban area, Southern Thailand
    • COI: 1:STN:280:DC%2BD2sjltVSjtg%3D%3D
    • Thammapalo S, Chongsuvivatwong V, Geater A, Dueravee M (2008) Environmental factors and incidence of dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever in an urban area, Southern Thailand. Epidemiol Infect 136:135–143
    • (2008) Epidemiol Infect , vol.136 , pp. 135-143
    • Thammapalo, S.1    Chongsuvivatwong, V.2    Geater, A.3    Dueravee, M.4
  • 57
    • 77954669637 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effect of serotypes on clinical manifestations of dengue fever in adults
    • Tsai JJ, Chan KS, Chang JS et al (2009) Effect of serotypes on clinical manifestations of dengue fever in adults. J Microbiol Immunol Infect 42:471–478
    • (2009) J Microbiol Immunol Infect , vol.42 , pp. 471-478
    • Tsai, J.J.1    Chan, K.S.2    Chang, J.S.3
  • 58
    • 84861609715 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exploring the spatial and temporal relationships between mosquito population dynamics and dengue outbreaks based on climatic factors
    • Tsai CT, Sung FC, Chen PS, Lin SC (2012) Exploring the spatial and temporal relationships between mosquito population dynamics and dengue outbreaks based on climatic factors. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 26:671–680
    • (2012) Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess , vol.26 , pp. 671-680
    • Tsai, C.T.1    Sung, F.C.2    Chen, P.S.3    Lin, S.C.4
  • 59
    • 0023158090 scopus 로고
    • Effect of temperature on the vector efficiency of Aedes aegypti for dengue 2 virus
    • COI: 1:STN:280:DyaL2s7isFCqsA%3D%3D
    • Watts DM, Burke DS, Harrison BA, Whitmire RE, Nisalak A (1987) Effect of temperature on the vector efficiency of Aedes aegypti for dengue 2 virus. Am J Trop Med Hyg 36:143–152
    • (1987) Am J Trop Med Hyg , vol.36 , pp. 143-152
    • Watts, D.M.1    Burke, D.S.2    Harrison, B.A.3    Whitmire, R.E.4    Nisalak, A.5
  • 60
    • 55049084757 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Geographic expansion of dengue: the impact of international travel
    • Wilder-Smith A, Gubler DJ (2008) Geographic expansion of dengue: the impact of international travel. Med Clin North Am 92:1377–1390
    • (2008) Med Clin North Am , vol.92 , pp. 1377-1390
    • Wilder-Smith, A.1    Gubler, D.J.2
  • 61
    • 33748440084 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An observation on correlation between rainfall and the prevalence of clinical cases of dengue in Thailand
    • Wiwanitkit V (2006) An observation on correlation between rainfall and the prevalence of clinical cases of dengue in Thailand. J Vector Borne Dis 43:73–76
    • (2006) J Vector Borne Dis , vol.43 , pp. 73-76
    • Wiwanitkit, V.1
  • 62
    • 34447559901 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weather as an effective predictor for occurrence of dengue fever in Taiwan
    • Wu PC, Guo HR, Lung SC, Lin CY, Su HJ (2007) Weather as an effective predictor for occurrence of dengue fever in Taiwan. Acta Trop 103:50–57
    • (2007) Acta Trop , vol.103 , pp. 50-57
    • Wu, P.C.1    Guo, H.R.2    Lung, S.C.3    Lin, C.Y.4    Su, H.J.5
  • 63
    • 79952992312 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A spatio-temporal climate-based model of early dengue fever warning in the southern Taiwan
    • Yu HL, Yang SJ, Yen HJ, Christakos G (2011) A spatio-temporal climate-based model of early dengue fever warning in the southern Taiwan. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 25:485–494
    • (2011) Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess , vol.25 , pp. 485-494
    • Yu, H.L.1    Yang, S.J.2    Yen, H.J.3    Christakos, G.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.