메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn , Issue , 2012, Pages 43-58

Causal inference as a prediction problem: Assumptions, identification and evidence synthesis

Author keywords

Accurate causal inference, of an as yet unobserved target; Causal inference as a prediction problem, and evidence synthesis; Causal inference, 'active prediction' consequences of alternative action; Causal inference, into framework of inference under missing data; Dawid and colleagues' DT formalization, variables as 'effect'; Formal causal models, precise causal meaning of associations; Heuristics, in dealing with dimensionality; Potential outcome and missing data, with counterfactual outcomes; statistical, treatment randomization, random selection and measurement error; Treatment prediction, as opposed to outcome prediction

Indexed keywords


EID: 84957071662     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1002/9781119945710.ch5     Document Type: Chapter
Times cited : (19)

References (59)
  • 1
    • 0005348260 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Chicago: CSLI Publications/University of Chicago Press
    • Adams, E. W. (1998) A Primer of Probability Logic. Chicago: CSLI Publications/University of Chicago Press.
    • (1998) Primer of Probability Logic
    • Adams, E.W.1
  • 2
    • 0000245743 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical modeling: the two cultures
    • Breiman, L. (2001) Statistical modeling: the two cultures. Statistical Science, 16, 199-215.
    • (2001) Statistical Science , vol.16 , pp. 199-215
    • Breiman, L.1
  • 3
    • 0015234143 scopus 로고
    • The University Group Diabetes Program: a further statistical analysis of the mortality findings
    • Cornfield, J. (1971). The University Group Diabetes Program: a further statistical analysis of the mortality findings. Journal of the American Medical Association, 217, 1676-1687.
    • (1971) Journal of the American Medical Association , vol.217 , pp. 1676-1687
    • Cornfield, J.1
  • 4
    • 1542742382 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Causal inference without counterfactuals (with discussion)
    • Dawid, A.P. (2000). Causal inference without counterfactuals (with discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, 407-448.
    • (2000) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.95 , pp. 407-448
    • Dawid, A.P.1
  • 5
    • 4043067247 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability, causality and the empirical world: a Bayes-de Finetti-Popper-Borel synthesis
    • Dawid, A. P. (2004). Probability, causality and the empirical world: a Bayes-de Finetti-Popper-Borel synthesis. Statistical Science, 19, 44-57.
    • (2004) Statistical Science , vol.19 , pp. 44-57
    • Dawid, A.P.1
  • 6
    • 77953165632 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Counterfactuals, hypotheticals and potential responses: a philosophical examination of statistical causality
    • (eds F. Russo and J. Williamson). London: College Publications. Available at
    • Dawid, A. P. (2007) Counterfactuals, hypotheticals and potential responses: a philosophical examination of statistical causality, in Causality and Probability in the Sciences, Texts in Philosophy, vol. 5 (eds F. Russo and J. Williamson). London: College Publications, pp. 503-532. Available at http://www.ucl.ac.uk/statistics/research/pdfs/rr269.pdf.
    • (2007) Causality and Probability in the Sciences, Texts in Philosophy , vol.5 , pp. 503-532
    • Dawid, A.P.1
  • 8
    • 0025612467 scopus 로고
    • The impact of differential recall on the results of case-control studies
    • Drews, C. and Greenland, S. (1990) The impact of differential recall on the results of case-control studies. International Journal of Epidemiology, 19, 1107-1112.
    • (1990) International Journal of Epidemiology , vol.19 , pp. 1107-1112
    • Drews, C.1    Greenland, S.2
  • 12
    • 0004097012 scopus 로고
    • Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press
    • Good, I.J. (1983) Good Thinking. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
    • (1983) Good Thinking
    • Good, I.J.1
  • 13
    • 23044481094 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Epidemiologic measures and policy formulation: lessons from potential outcomes (with discussion)
    • (online journal), Available at
    • Greenland, S. (2005a) Epidemiologic measures and policy formulation: lessons from potential outcomes (with discussion). Emerging Themes in Epidemiology (online journal), 2, 5. Available at http://www.ete-online.com/content/pdf/1742-7622-2-5.pdf.
    • (2005) Emerging Themes in Epidemiology , vol.2 , Issue.5
    • Greenland, S.1
  • 14
    • 20144383829 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiple-bias modeling for analysis of observational data (with discussion)
    • Greenland, S. (2005b) Multiple-bias modeling for analysis of observational data (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 168, 267-308.
    • (2005) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , vol.168 , Issue.A , pp. 267-308
    • Greenland, S.1
  • 15
    • 40049100642 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Variable selection and shrinkage in the control of multiple confounders (invited commentary)
    • erratum: 1142
    • Greenland, S. (2008) Variable selection and shrinkage in the control of multiple confounders (invited commentary). American Journal of Epidemiology, 167, 523-529; erratum: 1142.
    • (2008) American Journal of Epidemiology , vol.167 , pp. 523-529
    • Greenland, S.1
  • 16
    • 76349126008 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Relaxation penalties and priors for plausible modeling of nonidentified bias sources
    • Greenland, S. (2009) Relaxation penalties and priors for plausible modeling of nonidentified bias sources. Statistical Science, 24, 195-210.
    • (2009) Statistical Science , vol.24 , pp. 195-210
    • Greenland, S.1
  • 17
    • 82055193050 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Overthrowing the tyranny of null hypotheses hidden in causal diagrams
    • (eds R. Dechter, H. Geffner and J.Y. Halpern). London: College Press, Chapter 22. Available at
    • Greenland, S. (2010). Overthrowing the tyranny of null hypotheses hidden in causal diagrams, in Heuristics, Probabilities, and Causality: A Tribute to Judea Pearl (eds R. Dechter, H. Geffner and J.Y. Halpern). London: College Press, Chapter 22, pp. 365-382. Available at http://intersci.ss.uci.edu/wiki/pdf/Pearl/22_Greenland.pdf.
    • (2010) Heuristics, Probabilities, and Causality: A Tribute to Judea Pearl , vol.22 , pp. 365-382
    • Greenland, S.1
  • 18
    • 15844429309 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On model expansion, model contraction, identifiability, and prior information: two illustrative scenarios involving mismeasured variables (with discussion)
    • Gustafson, P. (2005) On model expansion, model contraction, identifiability, and prior information: two illustrative scenarios involving mismeasured variables (with discussion). Statistical Science, 20, 111-140.
    • (2005) Statistical Science , vol.20 , pp. 111-140
    • Gustafson, P.1
  • 20
    • 58149187432 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Object-oriented graphical representations of complex patterns of evidence
    • Hepler, A. B., Dawid, A. P. and Leucari, V. (2007) Object-oriented graphical representations of complex patterns of evidence. Law, Probability and Risk, 6, 275-293.
    • (2007) Law, Probability and Risk , vol.6 , pp. 275-293
    • Hepler, A.B.1    Dawid, A.P.2    Leucari, V.3
  • 21
    • 85066384011 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hypothetical interventions to define causal effects afterthought or prerequisite?
    • Hernan, M.A. (2005) Hypothetical interventions to define causal effects - afterthought or prerequisite? American Journal of Epidemiology, 162, 618-620.
    • (2005) American Journal of Epidemiology , vol.162 , pp. 618-620
    • Hernan, M.A.1
  • 22
    • 31844443695 scopus 로고
    • The environment and disease: association or causation?
    • Hill, A.B. (1965) The environment and disease: association or causation? Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 58, 295-300.
    • (1965) Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine , vol.58 , pp. 295-300
    • Hill, A.B.1
  • 24
    • 40749092863 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Epidemiologic analysis of racial/ethnic disparities: some fundamental issues and a cautionary example (with discussion)
    • Kaufman, J.S. (2008) Epidemiologic analysis of racial/ethnic disparities: some fundamental issues and a cautionary example (with discussion). Social Science and Medicine, 66, 1659-1680.
    • (2008) Social Science and Medicine , vol.66 , pp. 1659-1680
    • Kaufman, J.S.1
  • 25
    • 0003023231 scopus 로고
    • Objectivity, value judgment, and theory choice
    • Chicago: University of Chicago Press
    • Kuhn, T.S. (1977) Objectivity, value judgment, and theory choice, in The Essential Tension (ed. T.S. Kuhn). Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 320-343.
    • (1977) The Essential Tension , pp. 320-343
    • Kuhn, T.S.1
  • 28
    • 79953304087 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weight trimming and propensity score weighting
    • e18174, Available at
    • Lee, B.K., Lessler, J. and Stuart, E.A. (2011) Weight trimming and propensity score weighting. PLoS One, 6 (3), e18174. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0018174. Available at http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0018174.
    • (2011) PLoS One , vol.6 , Issue.3
    • Lee, B.K.1    Lessler, J.2    Stuart, E.A.3
  • 29
    • 10844272276 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Propensity score estimation with boosted regression for evaluating causal effects in observational studies
    • McCaffrey, D.F., Ridgeway, G., Morral, A.R. (2004) Propensity score estimation with boosted regression for evaluating causal effects in observational studies. Psychological Methods, 9, 403-425.
    • (2004) Psychological Methods , vol.9 , pp. 403-425
    • McCaffrey, D.F.1    Ridgeway, G.2    Morral, A.R.3
  • 31
    • 84972526326 scopus 로고
    • On the application of probability theory to agricultural experiments
    • Essay on principles, Section 9. English translation in
    • Neyman, J. (1923) On the application of probability theory to agricultural experiments. Essay on principles, Section 9. English translation in Statistical Science, 1990, 5, 465-480.
    • (1923) Statistical Science, 1990 , vol.5 , pp. 465-480
    • Neyman, J.1
  • 32
    • 77956888769 scopus 로고
    • Causal diagrams for empirical research (with discussion)
    • Pearl, J. (1995) Causal diagrams for empirical research (with discussion). Biometrika, 82, 669-710.
    • (1995) Biometrika , vol.82 , pp. 669-710
    • Pearl, J.1
  • 34
    • 0000657751 scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic evaluation of sequential plans from causal models with hidden variables
    • (eds P. Besnard and S. Hanks). San Mateo, CA: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers
    • Pearl, J. and Robins, J.M. (1995) Probabilistic evaluation of sequential plans from causal models with hidden variables, in Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (eds P. Besnard and S. Hanks). San Mateo, CA: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, pp. 444-453.
    • (1995) Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence , pp. 444-453
    • Pearl, J.1    Robins, J.M.2
  • 35
    • 0013045232 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying and reporting uncertainty from systematic errors
    • Phillips, C.V. (2003) Quantifying and reporting uncertainty from systematic errors. Epidemiology, 14, 459-466.
    • (2003) Epidemiology , vol.14 , pp. 459-466
    • Phillips, C.V.1
  • 36
    • 15744388537 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The missed lessons of Sir Austin Bradford Hill
    • (online journal)
    • Phillips, C.V. and Goodman, K.J. (2004) The missed lessons of Sir Austin Bradford Hill. Epidemiol. Perspect. Innov, 1, 3 (online journal). DOI: 10.1186/1742-5573-1-3.
    • (2004) Epidemiol. Perspect. Innov , vol.1 , Issue.3
    • Phillips, C.V.1    Goodman, K.J.2
  • 37
    • 0035118651 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Causal values
    • Poole, C. (2001) Causal values. Epidemiology, 12, 139-141.
    • (2001) Epidemiology , vol.12 , pp. 139-141
    • Poole, C.1
  • 38
    • 85042638658 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transparent parametrizations of models for potential outcomes
    • (eds J.M. Bernardo, M.J. Bayarri, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid, D. Heckerman, A.F.M. Smith and M. West). New York: Oxford University Press
    • Richardson, T.S., Evans, R.J. and Robins, J.M. (2010) Transparent parametrizations of models for potential outcomes, in Bayesian Statistics, vol. 9 (eds J.M. Bernardo, M.J. Bayarri, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid, D. Heckerman, A.F.M. Smith and M. West). New York: Oxford University Press.
    • (2010) Bayesian Statistics , vol.9
    • Richardson, T.S.1    Evans, R.J.2    Robins, J.M.3
  • 39
    • 46149139403 scopus 로고
    • A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with a sustained exposure period: applications to control of the healthy worker survivor effect
    • Robins, J.M. (1986) A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with a sustained exposure period: applications to control of the healthy worker survivor effect. Mathematical Modeling, 7, 1393-1512.
    • (1986) Mathematical Modeling , vol.7 , pp. 1393-1512
    • Robins, J.M.1
  • 40
    • 1542431292 scopus 로고
    • Addendum to: A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with a sustained exposure period
    • errata 1987, 18, 477
    • Robins, J.M. (1987a) Addendum to: A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with a sustained exposure period. Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 14, 917-945; errata 1987, 18, 477.
    • (1987) Computers and Mathematics with Applications , vol.14 , Issue.477 , pp. 917-945
    • Robins, J.M.1
  • 41
    • 0023203075 scopus 로고
    • A graphical approach to the identification and estimation of causal parameters in mortality studies with sustained exposure periods
    • (40 Supplement)
    • Robins, J.M. (1987b) A graphical approach to the identification and estimation of causal parameters in mortality studies with sustained exposure periods. Journal of Chronic Disease (40, Supplement), 2, 139s-161s.
    • (1987) Journal of Chronic Disease , vol.2 , pp. 139s-161s
    • Robins, J.M.1
  • 43
    • 0442324999 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conditioning, likelihood, and coherence: a review of some foundational concepts
    • Robins, J.M. and Wasserman L. (2000) Conditioning, likelihood, and coherence: a review of some foundational concepts. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, 1340-1346.
    • (2000) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.95 , pp. 1340-1346
    • Robins, J.M.1    Wasserman, L.2
  • 45
    • 0002531157 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian inference for causal effects: the role of randomization
    • Rubin, D.B. (1978) Bayesian inference for causal effects: the role of randomization. Annals of Statistics, 6, 34-58.
    • (1978) Annals of Statistics , vol.6 , pp. 34-58
    • Rubin, D.B.1
  • 46
    • 0026354283 scopus 로고
    • Practical implications of modes of statistical inference for causal effects, and the critical role of the assignment mechanism
    • Rubin, D.B. (1991) Practical implications of modes of statistical inference for causal effects, and the critical role of the assignment mechanism. Biometrics, 47, 1213-1234.
    • (1991) Biometrics , vol.47 , pp. 1213-1234
    • Rubin, D.B.1
  • 48
    • 77957994916 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can you hear me now?
    • October. Available at
    • Shermer, M. (2010) Can you hear me now? Scientific American, October. Available at http://www .michaelshermer.com/2010/10/can-you-hear-me-now/.
    • (2010) Scientific American
    • Shermer, M.1
  • 49
    • 58149433367 scopus 로고
    • Rational choice and the structure of the environment
    • Simon, H. A. (1956). Rational choice and the structure of the environment. Psychological Review, 63 (2), 129-138.
    • (1956) Psychological Review , vol.63 , Issue.2 , pp. 129-138
    • Simon, H.A.1
  • 50
    • 0003311857 scopus 로고
    • Bounded rationality and organizational learning
    • Simon, H. (1991) Bounded rationality and organizational learning. Organization Science, 2, 125134.
    • (1991) Organization Science , vol.2 , pp. 125-134
    • Simon, H.1
  • 51
    • 85066391988 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Science magazine gets it wrong on DNA breaks
    • Available at
    • Slesin, L. (2008) Science magazine gets it wrong on DNA breaks. Microwave News, 28, 1-3. Available at http://www.microwavenews.com/docs/mwn.11%2810%29-08.pdf.
    • (2008) Microwave News , vol.28 , pp. 1-3
    • Slesin, L.1
  • 53
    • 0025809884 scopus 로고
    • What is a cause and how do we know one A grammar for pragmatic epidemiology
    • Susser, M. (1991) What is a cause and how do we know one? A grammar for pragmatic epidemiology. American Journal of Epidemiology, 133, 635-648.
    • (1991) American Journal of Epidemiology , vol.133 , pp. 635-648
    • Susser, M.1
  • 55
    • 43249084062 scopus 로고
    • Extension versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment
    • Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1983) Extension versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90, 293-315.
    • (1983) Psychological Review , vol.90 , pp. 293-315
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 57
    • 78650778119 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bias formulas for sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounding for general outcomes, treatments and confounders
    • VanderWeele, T.J. and Arah, O.A. (2011) Bias formulas for sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounding for general outcomes, treatments and confounders. Epidemiology, 22, 42-52.
    • (2011) Epidemiology , vol.22 , pp. 42-52
    • VanderWeele, T.J.1    Arah, O.A.2
  • 58
    • 33750348204 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ignorance and uncertainty regions as inferential tools in a sensitivity analysis
    • Vansteelandt, S., Goetghebeur, E., Kenward, M.G. and Molenberghs, G. (2006) Ignorance and uncertainty regions as inferential tools in a sensitivity analysis. Statistica Sinica, 16, 953-980.
    • (2006) Statistica Sinica , vol.16 , pp. 953-980
    • Vansteelandt, S.1    Goetghebeur, E.2    Kenward, M.G.3    Molenberghs, G.4
  • 59
    • 79951978171 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of cell phone radiofrequency signal exposure on the brain glucose metabolism
    • Volkow, N.D., Tomasi, D., Want, G., et al. (2011) Effects of cell phone radiofrequency signal exposure on the brain glucose metabolism. Journal of the American Medical Association, 305, 808-814, 828-829.
    • (2011) Journal of the American Medical Association , vol.305 , pp. 808-814
    • Volkow, N.D.1    Tomasi, D.2    Want, G.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.