Ecological legacies of civil war: 35-year increase in savanna tree cover following wholesale large-mammal declines

Journal of Ecology

Volumn 104, Issue 1, 2016, Pages 79-89

  Daskin, Joshua H ^a   Stalmans, Marc ^b   Pringle, Robert M ^a  

^a PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Scientific Services   (Mozambique)

Author keywords

Biodiversity loss; Bush encroachment; Elephants Loxodonta africana; Extinction; Hexagon satellite; Plant herbivore interactions; Remote sensing; Top down effects; Tree grass coexistence; Trophic cascade

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; BIODIVERSITY; CIVIL WAR; COEXISTENCE; DICOTYLEDON; EXTINCTION; GRAZING PRESSURE; GROWTH RESPONSE; HABITAT TYPE; LAND USE CHANGE; MAMMAL; MONOCOTYLEDON; PLANT-HERBIVORE INTERACTION; POPULATION DECLINE; RECRUITMENT (POPULATION DYNAMICS); REMOTE SENSING; SATELLITE DATA; SATELLITE IMAGERY; SAVANNA; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; SURVIVAL; TOP-DOWN CONTROL; TROPHIC CASCADE; VEGETATION COVER; VEGETATION STRUCTURE;

GORONGOSA NATIONAL PARK; KENYA; MOZAMBIQUE; RIFT VALLEY; SOFALA;

ACACIA; COMBRETUM; ELEPHANTIDAE; LOXODONTA AFRICANA; MAMMALIA;

EID: 84955191979     PISSN: 00220477     EISSN: 13652745     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.12483     Document Type: Article

References (82)

1. Archibald, S., Roy, D.P., Van Wilgen, B.W. & Scholes, R.J. (2009) What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa. Global Change Biology, 15, 613-630.
2. Archibald, S., Scholes, R.J., Roy, D.P., Roberts, G. & Boschetti, L. (2010) Southern African fire regimes as revealed by remote sensing. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 19, 861-878.
3. Asner, G.P. & Levick, S.R. (2012) Landscape-scale effects of herbivores on treefall in African savannas. Ecology Letters, 15, 1211-1217.
4. Augustine, D.J. & Mcnaughton, S.J. (2004) Regulation of shrub dynamics by native browsing ungulates on East African rangeland. Journal of Applied Ecology, 41, 45-58.
5. Balk, D.L., Deichmann, U., Yetman, G., Pozzi, F., Hay, S.I. & Nelson, A. (2006) Determining global population distribution: methods, applications and data. Advances in Parasitology Global Mapping of Infectious Diseases: Methods, Examples and Emerging Applications (eds S.I. Hay, A. Graham & D.J.R. Rogers ), pp. 119-156. Elsevier, London, UK.
6. Bond, W.J. (2008) What limits trees in C4 grasslands and savannas? Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 39, 641-659.
7. Bond, W.J. & Keeley, J.E. (2005) Fire as a global "herbivore": the ecology and evolution of flammable ecosystems. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 20, 387-394.
8. 2-controlled mechanism of woody plant invasion in grasslands and savannas. Global Change Biology, 6, 865-869.
9. Boschetti, L., Roy, D. & Hoffmann, A.A. (2009) MODIS Collection 5 Burned Area Product-MCD45 User's Guide. University of Maryland, South Dakota State University, LM University of Munich. Available at https://earthdata.nasa.gov/files/MODIS_Burned_Area_Collection51_User_Guide_3.0.pdf.
10. Caughley, G. (1976) The elephant problem-an alternative hypothesis. African Journal of Ecology, 14, 265-283.
11. Colon-Gaud, C., Whiles, M.R., Lips, K.R., Pringle, C.M., Kilham, S.S., Connelly, S., Brenes, R. & Peterson, S.D. (2010) Stream invertebrate responses to a catastrophic decline in consumer diversity. Journal of the North American Benthological Society, 29, 1185-1198.
12. Connelly, S., Pringle, C.M., Bixby, R.J., Brenes, R., Whiles, M.R., Lips, K.R., Kilham, S. & Huryn, A.D. (2008) Changes in stream primary producer communities resulting from large-scale catastrophic amphibian declines: can small-scale experiments predict effects of tadpole loss? Ecosystems, 11, 1262-1276.
13. Craigie, I.D., Baillie, J.E.M., Balmford, A., Carbone, C., Collen, B., Green, R.E. & Hutton, J.M. (2010) Large mammal population declines in Africa's protected areas. Biological Conservation, 143, 2221-2228.
14. Cumming, D.H.M., Mackie, C., Magane, S. & Taylor, R.D. (1994) Aerial Census of Large Herbivores in the Gorongosa National Park and the Marromeu Area of the Zambezi Delta in Mozambique: June 1994. Unpublished report, IUCN ROSA.
15. Daskin, J.H., Stalmans, M. & Pringle, R.M. (2015) Data from: Ecological legacies of civil war: 35-year increase in savanna tree cover following wholesale large-mammal declines. Journal of Ecology, doi:10.5061/dryad.2jj16.
16. Dublin, H.T., Sinclair, A.R.E. & McGlade, J. (1990) Elephants and fire as causes of multiple stable states in the Serengeti-Mara woodlands. Journal of Animal Ecology, 59, 1147-1164.
17. Dunham, K.M. (2004) Aerial Survey of Large Mammals in Gorongosa National Park, Mozambique: 2004. A report for the Gregory C. Carr Foundation.
18. Dutton, P. & Carvalho, F. (2002) Final Report for the GERFFA project on the status of fauna in the Sofala province: 1990-2001 with Reference to Previous Data.
19. Erb, J.D. & Boyce, M.S. (1999) Distribution of population declines in large mammals. Conservation Biology, 13, 199-201.
20. Fey, S.B., Siepielski, A.M., Nusslé, S., Cervantes-Yoshida, K., Hwan, J.L., Huber, E.R., Fey, M.J., Catenazzi, A. & Carlson, S.M. (2015) Recent shifts in the occurrence, cause, and magnitude of animal mass mortality events. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112, 1083-1088.
21. Foody, G.M. (2009) Sample size determination for image classification accuracy assessment and comparison. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 30, 5273-5291.
22. Ford, A.T., Goheen, J.R., Otieno, T.O., Bidner, L., Isbell, L.A., Palmer, T.M., Ward, D., Woodroffe, R. & Pringle, R.M. (2014) Large carnivores make savanna tree communities less thorny. Science, 346, 346-349.
23. Ford, A.T., Goheen, J.R., Augustine, D.J., Kinnaird, M.F., O'Brien, T.G., Palmer, T.M., Pringle, R.M. & Woodroffe, R. (2015) Recovery of African wild dogs suppresses prey but does not trigger a trophic cascade. Ecology, 96, 2705-2714.
24. Gibbes, C., Adhikari, S., Rostant, L., Southworth, J. & Qiu, Y. (2010) Application of object based classification and high resolution satellite imagery for savanna ecosystem analysis. Remote Sensing, 2, 2748-2772.
25. Giglio, L. (2013) MODIS Collection 5 Active Fire Product User's Guide Version 2.5. University of Maryland. Available at https://earthdata.nasa.gov/files/MODIS_Fire_Users_Guide_2.5.pdf.
26. Gill, J.L. (2013) Ecological impacts of the late Quaternary megaherbivore extinctions. New Phytologist, 201, 1163-1169.
27. Goheen, J.R., Young, T.P., Keesing, F. & Palmer, T.M. (2007) Consequences of herbivory by native ungulates for the reproduction of a savanna tree. Journal of Ecology, 95, 129-138.
28. Goheen, J.R., Palmer, T.M., Charles, G.K., Helgen, K.M., Kinyua, S.N., Maclean, J.E., Turner, B.L., Young, H.S. & Pringle, R.M. (2013) Piecewise disassembly of a large-herbivore community across a rainfall gradient: the UHURU Experiment. PLoS ONE, 8, e55192.
29. Guldemond, R. & van Aarde, R.J. (2008) A meta-analysis of the impact of African elephants on savanna vegetation. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 72, 892-899.
30. Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Nes, E.H.V. & Scheffer, M. (2011) Global resilience of tropical forest and savanna to critical transitions. Science, 334, 232-235.
31. Holdo, R.M., Holt, R.D. & Fryxell, J.M. (2009) Grazers, browsers, and fire influence the extent and spatial pattern of tree cover in the Serengeti. Ecological Applications, 19, 95-109.
32. Holdo, R.M., Sinclair, A.R.E., Dobson, A.P., Metzger, K.L., Bolker, B.M., Ritchie, M.E. & Holt, R.D. (2009) A disease-mediated trophic cascade in the Serengeti and its implications for ecosystem C. PLoS Biology, 7, e1000210.
33. Holmgren, M., Hirota, M., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2013) Effects of interannual climate variability on tropical tree cover. Nature Climate Change, 3, 755-758.
34. Hooper, D.U., Chapin, F.S., Ewel, J.J., Hector, A., Inchausti, P., Lavorel, S. et al. (2005) Effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning: a consensus of current knowledge. Ecological Monographs, 75, 3-35.
35. House, J.I., Archer, S., Breshears, D.D., Scholes, R.J. & NCEAS Tree-Grass Interactions Participants (2003) Conundrums in mixed woody-herbaceous plant systems. Journal of Biogeography, 30, 1763-1777.
36. Huffman, G.J., Bolvin, D.T., Nelkin, E.J., Wolff, D.B., Adler, R.F., Gu, G., Hong, Y., Bowman, K.P. & Stocker, E.F. (2007) The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): quasi-global, multiyear, combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8, 38-55.
37. IUCN & UNEP-WCMC. (2013) The World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA). World Conservation Union and UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Centre, New York, NY, USA.
38. Jachmann, H. (2001) Aerial sample counts. Estimating Abundance of African Wildlife, pp. 113-138. Springer, New York NY, USA.
39. Joffre, R. & Rambal, S. (1993) How tree cover influences the water balance of Mediterranean rangelands. Ecology, 74, 570-582.
40. Jolly, G.M. (1969) Sampling methods for aerial censuses of wildlife populations. East African Agricultural and Forestry Journal, 34, 46-49.
41. Karagiannis, G. & Argialas, D. (2012) Semi-automatic object-based building change detection in suburban areas from Quickbird imagery using the ERDAS Imagine Objective software. Advances in Geosciences, EARSel 2012, 594-607.
42. Kartzinel, T.R., Chen, P.A., Coverdale, T.C., Erickson, D.L., Kress, W.J., Kuzmina, M.L., Rubenstein, D.I., Wang, W. & Pringle, R.M. (2015) DNA metabarcoding illuminates dietary niche partitioning by African large herbivores. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112, 8019-8024.
43. Laws, R.M. (1970) Elephants as agents of habitat and landscape change in East Africa. Oikos, 21, 1-15.
44. Ludwig, F., Dawson, T.E., de Kroon, H., Berendse, F. & Prins, H.H.T. (2002) Hydraulic lift in Acacia tortilis trees on an East African savanna. Oecologia, 134, 293-300.
45. McNaughton, S.J. (1992) The propagation of disturbance in savannas through food webs. Journal of Vegetation Science, 3, 301-314.
46. O'Connor, T.G., Puttick, J.R. & Hoffman, M.T. (2014) Bush encroachment in southern Africa: changes and causes. African Journal of Range & Forage Science, 31, 67-88.
47. Parr, C.L., Gray, E.F. & Bond, W.J. (2012) Cascading biodiversity and functional consequences of a global change-induced biome switch. Diversity and Distributions, 18, 493-503.
48. Polley, H.W. (1997) Implications of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration for rangelands. Journal of Range Management Archives, 50, 562-577.
49. Pringle, R.M. (2012) How to be manipulative. American Scientist, 100, 30-37.
50. Pringle, R.M., Syfert, M., Webb, J.K. & Shine, R. (2009) Quantifying historical changes in habitat availability for endangered species: use of pixel-and object-based remote sensing. Journal of Applied Ecology, 46, 544-553.
51. Pringle, R.M., Palmer, T., Goheen, J.R., McCauley, D.J. & Keesing, F. (2011) Ecological importance of large herbivores in the Ewaso Ecosystem. Conserving Wildlife in African Landscapes: Kenya's Ewaso Ecosystem (ed. N.J. Giorgiadis ), pp. 55-71. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, DC, USA.
52. Pringle, R.M., Goheen, J.R., Palmer, T.M., Charles, G.K., DeFranco, E., Hohbein, R., Ford, A.T. & Tarnita, C.E. (2014) Low functional redundancy among mammalian browsers in regulating an encroaching shrub (Solanum campylacanthum) in African savannah. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 281, 20140390.
53. Prins, H.H.T. & van der Jeugd, H.P. (1993) Herbivore population crashes and woodland structure in East Africa. Journal of Ecology, 81, 305-314.
54. R Core Team. (2013) R 3.0. R Core Team, Vienna, Austria.
55. Reed, D.H., O'Grady, J.J., Ballou, J.D. & Frankham, R. (2003) The frequency and severity of catastrophic die-offs in vertebrates. Animal Conservation, 6, 109-114.
56. Ripple, W.J., Estes, J.A., Beschta, R.L., Wilmers, C.C., Ritchie, E.G., Hebblewhite, M. et al. (2014) Status and ecological effects of the world's largest carnivores. Science, 343, 1241484.
57. Sankaran, M., Augustine, D.J. & Ratnam, J. (2013) Native ungulates of diverse body sizes collectively regulate long-term woody plant demography and structure of a semi-arid savanna. Journal of Ecology, 101, 1389-1399.
58. Sankaran, M., Ratnam, J. & Hanan, N. (2008) Woody cover in African savannas: the role of resources, fire and herbivory. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17, 236-245.
59. Sankaran, M., Hanan, N.P., Scholes, R.J., Ratnam, J., Augustine, D.J., Cade, B.S., Gignoux, J., Higgins, S.I., Le Roux, X. & Ludwig, F. (2005) Determinants of woody cover in African savannas. Nature, 438, 846-849.
60. Scholes, R.J. & Archer, S.R. (1997) Tree-Grass Interactions in Savannas. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 28, 517-544.
61. Schuster, C., Förster, M. & Kleinschmit, B. (2012) Testing the red edge channel for improving land-use classifications based on high-resolution multi-spectral satellite data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 33, 5583-5599.
62. Sheffield, J., Goteti, G. & Wood, E.F. (2006) Development of a 50-year high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcings for land surface modeling. Journal of Climate, 19, 3088-3111.
63. Sheffield, J., Wood, E.F., Chaney, N., Guan, K., Sadri, S., Yuan, X., Olang, L., Amani, A., Ali, A., Demuth, S. & Ogallo, L. (2014) A drought monitoring and forecasting system for sub-Sahara African water resources and food security. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 861-882.
64. Sirami, C. & Monadjem, A. (2012) Changes in bird communities in Swaziland savannas between 1998 and 2008 owing to shrub encroachment. Diversity and Distributions, 18, 390-400.
65. Stalmans, M. (2012) Monitoring the Recovery of Wildlife in the Parque Nacional Da Gorongosa Through Aerial Surveys: 2000-2012 A Preliminary Analysis. Parque Nacional Da Gorongosa. Available at http://www.gorongosa.org/sites/default/files/research/053-wildlife_count_report_2000_2012_july2012.pdf.
66. Stalmans, M. & Beilfuss, R. (2008) Landscapes of the Gorongosa National Park. Parque Nacional Da Gorongosa. Available at http://www.gorongosa.org/sites/default/files/research/051-gorongosalandscapes_stalmans.pdf.
67. Stalmans, M., Peel, M. & Massad, T. (2014) Aerial Wildlife Count of the Parque Nacional Da Gorongosa, Mozambique, October 2014. Parque Nacional Da Gorongosa.
68. Staver, A.C., Archibald, S. & Levin, S. (2011a) Tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa: rainfall and fire constrain forest and savanna as alternative stable states. Ecology, 92, 1063-1072.
69. Staver, A.C., Archibald, S. & Levin, S.A. (2011b) The global extent and determinants of savanna and forest as alternative biome states. Science, 334, 230-232.
70. Staver, A.C. & Bond, W.J. (2014) Is there a "browse trap"? Dynamics of herbivore impacts on trees and grasses in an African savanna. Journal of Ecology, 102, 595-602.
71. Staver, A.C., Bond, W.J., Stock, W.D., van Rensburg, S.J. & Waldram, M.S. (2009) Browsing and fire interact to suppress tree density in an African savanna. Ecological Applications, 19, 1909-1919.
72. Tambling, C.J., Minnie, L., Adendorff, J. & Kerley, G.I. (2013) Elephants facilitate impact of large predators on small ungulate prey species. Basic and Applied Ecology, 14, 694-701.
73. Tinley, K.L. (1977) Framework of the Gorongosa Ecosystem, Mocambique. D.Sc thesis. University of Pretoria, South Africa.
74. Trollope, W.S.W. & Tainton, N.M. (1986) Effect of fire intensity on the grass and bush components of the Eastern Cape Thornveld. Journal of the Grassland Society of Southern Africa, 3, 37-42.
75. UNEP & CIESIN. (2004) Africa Population Distribution Database. UNEP & CIESIN. Available at https://na.unep.net/siouxfalls/globalpop/africa/africa_index.html.
76. Van Langevelde, F., van De Vijver, C.A., Kumar, L., Van De Koppel, J., De Ridder, N., van Andel, J., Skidmore, A.K., Hearne, J.W., Stroosnijder, L. & Bond, W.J. (2003) Effects of fire and herbivory on the stability of savanna ecosystems. Ecology, 84, 337-350.
77. Waldram, M.S., Bond, W.J. & Stock, W.D. (2008) Ecological engineering by a mega-grazer: white rhino impacts on a South African savanna. Ecosystems, 11, 101-112.
78. Ward, D. (2005) Do we understand the causes of bush encroachment in African savannas? African Journal of Range and Forage Science, 22, 101-105.
79. Wittemyer, G., Elsen, P., Bean, W.T., Burton, A.C.O. & Brashares, J.S. (2008) Accelerated human population growth at protected area edges. Science, 321, 123-126.
80. Young, T.P. (1994) Natural die-offs of large mammals: implications for conservation. Conservation Biology, 8, 410-418.
81. Young, H.S., McCauley, D.J., Helgen, K.M., Goheen, J.R., Otárola-Castillo, E., Palmer, T.M., Pringle, R.M., Young, T.P. & Dirzo, R. (2013) Effects of mammalian herbivore declines on plant communities: observations and experiments in an African savanna. Journal of Ecology, 101, 1030-1041.
82. Young, H.S., McCauley, D.J., Dirzo, R., Goheen, J.R., Agwanda, B., Brook, C. et al. (2015) Context-dependent effects of large mammals declines on small mammal communities in central Kenya. Ecological Applications. Ecological Applications, 96, 157-160.