Corporate foresight: An emerging field with a rich tradition

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 101, Issue , 2015, Pages 1-9

  Rohrbeck, René ^a,b   Battistella, Cinzia ^c   Huizingh, Eelko ^d  

^a AARHUS UNIVERSITY   (Denmark)

^b Department for Business Development and Technology ^*  (Denmark)

^c FREE UNIVERSITY OF BOZEN BOLZANO   (Italy)

^d UNIVERSITY OF GRONINGEN   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Corporate foresight; Historical development; Review; Strategic foresight

Indexed keywords

INNOVATION; REVIEWS; TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING;

COLLECTIVE COGNITION; COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE; CORPORATE FORESIGHT; GENERAL MANAGEMENT; HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT; NETWORKED ORGANIZATIONS; STRATEGIC FORESIGHT; THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS;

COMPETITION;

CORPORATE STRATEGY; ECONOMIC HISTORY; HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE; INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT; LITERATURE REVIEW;

EID: 84949093916     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.002     Document Type: Article

References (128)

1. Ahuja G., Coff R.W., Lee P.M. Managerial foresight and attempted rent appropriation: insider trading on knowledge of imminent breakthroughs. Strateg. Manag. J. 2005, 26:791-808.
2. Allen T.J., Piepmeier J.M., Cooney S. International technological gatekeeper. Technol. Rev. 1971, 73:36-43.
3. Alsan A. Corporate foresight in emerging markets: action research at a multinational company in Turkey. Futures 2008, 40:47-55.
4. Ansoff H.I. Strategic issue management. Strateg. Manag. J. 1980, 1:131-148.
5. Ayres R.U. Technological Forecasting and Long-range Planning 1969, McGraw-Hill, New York.
6. Barker D., Smith D.J.H. Technology foresight using roadmaps. Long Range Plan. 1995, 28:21-28.
7. Battistella C. The organisation of corporate foresight: a multiple case study in the telecommunication industry. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2014, 87:60-79.
8. Battistella C., De Toni A.F. A methodology of technological foresight: a proposal and field study. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2011, 78:1029-1048.
9. Battistella C., De Toni A.F., Pillon R. Thee extended map methodology: technology roadmapping for SMES clusters. J. Eng. Technol. Manag. 2015.
10. Becker P. Corporate foresight in Europe: a first overview. Working Paper European Commission, European Commission, Brussels 2002, 31.
11. Berger G., Bourbon-Busset J.d., Massé P. De la prospective: Textes fondamentaux de la prospective fancaise 1955-1966 2008, L'Harmattan, Paris.
12. Boe-Lillegraven S., Monterde S. Exploring the cognitive value of technology foresight: the case of the Cisco Technology Radar. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2015, 101:62-82.
13. Bogner W.C., Barr P.S. Making sense in hypercompetitive environments: a cognitive explanation for the persistence of high velocity competition. Organ. Sci. 2000, 11:212-226.
14. Brockhoff K. Competitor technology intelligence in German companies. Ind. Mark. Manag. 1991, 20:91-98.
15. Burt G., Mackay D.J., Perchard A. Managerial hyperopia: a potential unintended consequence of foresight in a top management team?. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2015, 101:134-146.
16. Camillus J.C., Datta D.K. Managing strategic issues in a turbulent environment. Long Range Plan. 1991, 24:67-74.
17. Chermack T.J., Nimon K. The effects of scenario planning on participant decision-making style. Hum. Resour. Dev. Q. 2008, 19:351-372.
18. Coates J., Durance P., Godet M. Strategic foresight issue: introduction. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2010, 77:1423-1425.
19. Colombo M., Pirelli L., Piva E. Designing the European institute of innovation and technology: exploring the most effective model to integrate public and private research systems. The 3rd International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, Sevilla, Spain 2006, 111.
20. Courtney H., Kirkland J., Viguerie P. Strategy under uncertainty. Harv. Bus. Rev. 1997, 75:67-79.
21. Cyert R.M., March J.G. A Behavioral Theory of the Firm, Englewood Cliffs, NJ 1963.
22. Daft R.L., Weick K.E. Toward a model of organizations as interpretation systems. Acad. Manag. Rev. 1984, 9:284-295.
23. Daheim C., Uerz G. Corporate foresight in Europe: from trend based logics to open foresight. Tech. Anal. Strat. Manag. 2008, 20:321-336.
24. Darkow I.-L. The involvement of middle management in strategy development - development and implementation of a foresight-based approach. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2015, 101:10-24.
25. Day G.S., Schoemaker P. Peripheral vision: sensing and acting on weak signals. Long Range Plan. 2004, 37:117-121.
26. Day G.S., Schoemaker P.J.H. Leadership - are you a 'vigilant leader'?. MIT Sloan Manag. Rev. 2008, 49. (43-+).
27. Dutton J.E., Jackson S.E. Categorizing strategic issues - links to organizational action. Acad. Manag. Rev. 1987, 12:76-90.
28. Dutton J.E., Fahey L., Narayanan V.K. Toward understanding strategic issue diagnosis. Strateg. Manag. J. 1983, 4:307-323.
29. EIRMA Technological roadmapping. Delivering business vision. Working Group Reports, 1998, European Industrial Research Management Association, Paris.
30. Eisenhardt K.M., Martin J.A. Dynamic capabilities: what are they?. Strateg. Manag. J. 2000, 21:1105-1121.
31. Fahey L., King W.R. Environmental scanning for corporate-planning. Bus. Horiz. 1977, 20:61-71.
32. Farrington T., Henson K., Crews C. Research foresights the use of strategic foresight methods for ideation and portfolio management. Res. Technol. Manag. 2012, 55:26-33.
33. Farrukh C., Phaal R., Probert D. Technology roadmapping: linking technology resources into business planning. Int. J. Technol. Manag. 2003, 26:2-19.
34. Fuller T., Loogma K. Constructing futures: a social constructionist perspective on foresight methodology. Futures 2009, 41:71-79.
35. Gausemeier J., Fink A., Schlake O. Scenario management: an approach to develop future potentials. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 1998, 59:111-130.
36. Gavetti G. Toward a behavioral theory of strategy. Organ. Sci. 2012, 23:267-285.
37. Gavetti G., Levinthal D. Looking forward and looking backward: cognitive and experiential search. Adm. Sci. Q. 2000, 45:113-137.
38. Gavetti G., Greve H.R., Levinthal D.A., Ocasio W. The behavioral theory of the firm: assessment and prospects. Acad. Manag. Ann. 2012, 6:1-40.
39. Gephart R.P., Topal C., Zhang Z. Future-oriented sensemaking: temporalities and institutional legitimation. Perspectives on Process, Sensemaking, and Organizing 2010, 275-311. Oxford University Press, Oxford. T. Hernes, S. Maitlis (Eds.).
40. Gerybadze A. Technology forecasting as a process of organisational intelligence. R&D Manag. 1994, 24:131-140.
41. Geus A.P.d. Planning as learning. Harv. Bus. Rev. 1988, 66:70-74.
42. Godet M. Future memories. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2010, 77:1457-1463.
43. Godet M., Durance P. Strategic Foresight: For Corporate and Regional Development, DUNOD 2011.
44. Godiwalla Y.M., Meinhart W.A. Environmental scanning: does it help the chief executive?. Long Range Plan. 1980, 13:87-99.
45. Goldsmith A. The Ecological Death 1973, TN Laterza.
46. Hamel G., Prahalad C.K. Competing for the future. Harv. Bus. Rev. 1994, 72:122-128.
47. Hamel G., Prahalad C.K. Competing for the Future 1994, Harvard Business Press.
48. Hauptmann O., Pope S.L. The process of applied technology forecasting: a study of executive analysis, anticipation, and planning. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 1992, 42:193-211.
49. Heger T., Boman M. Networked foresight-the case of EIT ICT Labs. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2015, 101:147-164.
50. Heger T., Rohrbeck R. Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2012, 79:819-831.
51. Helfat C.E. Stylized facts, empirical research and theory development in management. Strateg. Organ. 2007, 5:185-192.
52. Helfat C.E., Peteraf M.A. The dynamic resource-based view: capability lifecycles. Strateg. Manag. J. 2003, 24:997-1010.
53. Hines A., Gold J. An organizational futurist role for integrating foresight into corporations. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2015, 101:99-111. (in this issue).
54. Hodgkinson G.P., Clarke I. Exploring the cognitive significance of organizational strategizing: a dual-process framework and research agenda. Hum. Relat. 2007, 60:243-255.
55. Hofmann R. Visionary competence for long-term development of brands, products, and services: the trend receiver concept and its first applications at Audi. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2015, 101:147-164. (in this issue).
56. Ingvar D.H. "Memories of the future": an essay on the temporal organization of concious awareness. Hum. Neurobiol. 1985, 4:127-136.
57. Jefferson M. Shell scenarios: what really happened in the 1970s and what may be learned for current world prospects. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2012, 79:186-197.
58. Jissink T., Huizingh E.K.R.E., Rohrbeck R. Corporate foresight: antecedents and contributions to innovation performance. ISPIM Annual Conference - Innovation for Sustainable Economy & Society, Dublin, Ireland 2014.
59. Jissink T., Huizingh E.K., Rohrbeck R. Corporate foresight and performance: a chain-of-effects model. Working Paper 2015, University of Aarhus, Aarhus.
60. Kahn H., Wiener A. The Year 2000, A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-three Years 1967, MacMillan, N. Y.
61. Kim D.-J. Strategic foresight: the case of TJ park and POSCO. Jias 2012, 19:45-57.
62. Knudsen T., Levinthal D.A. Two faces of search: alternative generation and alternative evaluation. Organ. Sci. 2007, 18:39-54.
63. Maitlis S., Christianson M. Sensemaking in organizations: taking stock and moving forward. Acad. Manag. Ann. 2014, 8:57-125.
64. Masini E.B. È prevedibile il futuro? (Is future predictable?). Verso il duemila (Toward 2000) 1984, Laterza, Roma-Bari. P.e. al. (Ed.).
65. McMaster M. Foresight: exploring the structure of the future. Long Range Plan. 1996, 29:149-155.
66. Mendonca S., Pina e Cunha M., Ruff F., Kaivo-oja J. Venturing into the wilderness preparing for wild cards in the civil aircraft and asset-management industries. Long Range Plan. 2009, 42:23-41.
67. Micic P. Future markets-radar: a case study of applied strategic foresight. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2010, 77:1499-1505.
68. Miles I., Harper J.C., Georghiou L., Keenan M., Popper R. Chapter 1: the many faces of foresight and chapter 2: from futures to foresight. The Handbook of Technology Foresight - Concepts and Practise 2009, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK. L. Georghiou, J.C. Harper, M. Keenan, I. Miles, R. Popper (Eds.).
69. Oner M.A. On theory building in foresight and futures studies a discussion note. Futures 2010, 42:1019-1030.
70. Paliokaite˙ A., Pače˙sa N. The relationship between organisational foresight and organisational ambidexterity. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2015, 101:165-181.
71. Peter M.K., Jarratt D.G. The practice of foresight in long-term planning. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2015, 101:49-61.
72. Popper R. How are research methods selected?. Foresight 2008, 10:62-89.
73. Reger G. Technology foresight in companies: from an indicator to a network and process perspective. Tech. Anal. Strat. Manag. 2001, 13:533-553.
74. Renfro W.L. Issues management: the evolving corporate role. Futures 1987, 19:545-554.
75. Rhisiart M., Miller R., Brooks S. Learning to use the future: developing foresight capabilities through scenario processes. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2015, 101:124-133. (in this issue).
76. Rigby D., Bilodeau B. A growing focus on preparedness. Harv. Bus. Rev. 2007, 85:21-22.
77. Ringland G. The role of scenarios in strategic foresight. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2010, 77:1493-1498.
78. Rohrbeck R. Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm 2010, Physica-Verlag, Springer, Heidelberg.
79. Rohrbeck R. Harnessing a network of experts for competitive advantage: technology scouting in the ICT industry. R&D Manag. 2010, 40:169-180.
80. Rohrbeck R. Exploring value creation from corporate-foresight activities. Futures 2012, 44:440-452.
81. Rohrbeck R., Bade M. Environmental scanning, futures research, strategic foresight and organizational future orientation: a review, integration, and future research directions. XXIII ISPIM Annual Conference, Barcelona, Spain 2012.
82. Rohrbeck R., Gemuenden H.G. Corporate foresight: its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2011, 78:231-243.
83. Rohrbeck R., Gemünden H.G. Corporate foresight: its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2011, 78:231-243.
84. Rohrbeck R., Kallehave P. The role of corporate foresight in promoting sustainability. UN Global Compact International Yearbook, United Nations, New York 2012.
85. Rohrbeck R., Pirelli L.H. The European Institute of innovation and technology: how to steer a multi-stakeholder innovation ecosystem. DIME Conference - Organizing for Networked Innovation, Milano, Italy 2010.
86. Rohrbeck R., Schwarz J.O. The value contribution of strategic foresight: insights from an empirical study of large European companies. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2013, 80:1593-1606.
87. Rohrbeck R., Konnertz L., Knab S. Collaborative business modelling for systemic and sustainability innovations. Int. J. Technol. Manag. 2013, 63:4-23.
88. Ruff F. Corporate foresight: integrating the future business environment into innovation and strategy. Int. J. Technol. Manag. 2006, 34:278-295.
89. Ruff F. The advanced role of corporate foresight in innovation and strategic management - reflections on practical experiences from the automotive industry. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2015, 101:37-48.
90. Sandberg J., Tsoukas H. Making sense of the sensemaking perspective: its constituents, limitations, and opportunities for further development. J. Organ. Behav. 2015, 36:6-32.
91. Sarpong D., Maclean M. Unpacking strategic foresight: a practice approach. Scand. J. Manag. 2014, 30:16-26.
92. Sarpong D., Maclean M., Alexander E. Organizing strategic foresight: a contextual practice of 'way finding'. Futures 2013, 53:33-41.
93. Scheiner C.W., Baccarella C.V., Bessant J., Voigt K.-I. Thinking patterns and gut feeling in technology identification and evaluation. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2015, 101:112-123. (in this issue).
94. Schwartz P. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World 1995, Currency Doubleday, New York.
95. Schwarz J.O. Assessing the future of futures studies in management. Futures 2008, 40:237-246.
96. Shah A.N., Palacios M., Ruiz F. Strategic rigidity and foresight for technology adoption among electric utilities. Energy Policy 2013, 63:1233-1239.
97. Slaughter R.A. Assessing the quest for future knowledge: significance of the quick environmental scanning technique for futures. Futures 1990, 22:153-166.
98. Slaughter R.A. Developing and applying strategic foresight. ABN Report 1997, 5:13-27.
99. Sutcliffe K.M. What executives notice: accurate perception of top management teams. Acad. Manag. J. 1994, 37:1360-1378.
100. Szpunar K.K., Addis D.R., McLelland V.C., Schacter D.L. Memories of the future: new insights into the adaptive value of episodic memory. Front. Behav. Neurosci. 2013, 7:3.
101. Taylor B. New dimensions in corporate planning. Long Range Plan. 1976, 9:80-106.
102. Teece D.J. Explicating dynamic capabilities: the nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance. Strateg. Manag. J. 2007, 28:1319-1350.
103. Teece D.J., Pisano G., Shuen A. Dynamic capabilities and strategic management. Strateg. Manag. J. 1997, 18:509-533.
104. Thomas P.S. Environmental scanning - state of the art. Long Range Plan. 1980, 13:20-28.
105. Thomas J.B., Clark S.M., Gioia D.A. Strategic sensemaking and organizational performance - linkages among scanning, interpretation, action, and outcomes. Acad. Manag. J. 1993, 36:239-270.
106. Toffler A. Future Shock 1970, Rizzoli Editore, Milano, Italy.
107. Tripsas M., Gavetti G. Capabilities, cognition, and inertia: evidence from digital imaging. Strateg. Manag. J. 2000, 21:1147-1161.
108. Tsoukas H., Shepherd J. Managing the Future: Foresight in the Knowledge Economy 2004, Blackwell Pub, Malden, MA, USA.
109. Tsoukas H., Shepherd J. Coping with the future: developing organizational foresightfulness - introduction. Futures 2004, 36:137-144.
110. van der Duin P., Hartigh E.d. Keeping the balance. Exploring the link of futures research with innovation and strategy processes. Tech. Anal. Strat. Manag. 2009, 21:333-351.
111. Van der Heijden K. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation 2005, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, West Sussex; Hoboken, N.J. 2nd ed.
112. Vecchiato R. Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: an integrated study. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2012, 79:436-447.
113. Vecchiato R. Strategic foresight: matching environmental uncertainty. Tech. Anal. Strat. Manag. 2012, 24:783-796.
114. Vecchiato R. Creating value through foresight: first mover advantages and strategic agility. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2015, 101:25-36. (in this issue).
115. Vecchiato R., Roveda C. Foresight in corporate organisations. Tech. Anal. Strat. Manag. 2010, 22:99-112.
116. Vecchiato R., Roveda C. Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2010, 77:1527-1539.
117. von der Gracht H.A., Stillings C. An innovation-focused scenario process - a case from the materials producing industry. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2013, 80:599-610.
118. von der Gracht H.A., Vennemann C.R., Darkow I.-L. Corporate foresight and innovation management: a portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures 2010, 42:380-393.
119. Voros J. A generic foresight process framework. Foresight 2003, 5:10-21.
120. Wack P. Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead. Harv. Bus. Rev. 1985, 73-89.
121. Weick K.E. The Social Psychology of Organizing 1979, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA. 2nd edition.
122. Weick K.E. Managing the future: foresight in the knowledge economy. Acad. Manag. Rev. 2005, 30:871-873.
123. Weick K.E., Sutcliffe K.M., Obstfeld D. Organizing and the process of sensemaking. Organ. Sci. 2005, 16:409-421.
124. Weigand K., Flanagan T., Dye K., Jones P. Collaborative foresight: complementing long-horizon strategic planning. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2014, 85:134-152.
125. Whitehead A.N. Adventures of Ideas 1933, The Macmillan Company, New York.
126. Wilkinson A., Kupers R. Living in the futures. Harv. Bus. Rev. 2013, 91:119-127.
127. Wilson I.H. Futures forecasting for strategic planning at general electric. Long Range Plan. 1973, 6:39-42.
128. Winter S.G. Specialised perception, selection, and strategic surprise: learning from the moths and bees. Long Range Plan. 2004, 37:163-169.