A methodology of technological foresight: A proposal and field study

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 78, Issue 6, 2011, Pages 1029-1048

  Battistella, Cinzia ^a   De Toni, Alberto F ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF UDINE   (Italy)

Author keywords

Case study; Coherence; Corporate Foresight; Future coverage; Strategic direction; Trend

Indexed keywords

CASE STUDY; COHERENCE; CORPORATE FORESIGHT; FUTURE COVERAGE; STRATEGIC DIRECTION; TREND;

INDUSTRY;

CORPORATE STRATEGY; FIELD METHOD; FORECASTING METHOD; FUTURE PROSPECT; INNOVATION; STRATEGIC APPROACH; TREND ANALYSIS;

EID: 79957523818     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.01.006     Document Type: Article

References (94)

1. Hamel G., Prahalad C.K. Competing for the Future 1994, Harward Business School Press, Boston.
2. Okun A. Prices and Quantities: A Macroeconomic Analysis 1981, The Brooking Institution.
3. Porter M.E. Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance 1985, The Free Press, New York.
4. Ansoff H.I. The emerging paradigm of strategic behaviour. Strateg. Manage. J. 1987, 8:501-515.
5. Day G.S., Schoemaker P.J.H. Scanning the periphery. Harv. Bus. Rev. 2005, 83(11):135-148.
6. Schwarz J.O. Pitfalls implementing a strategic early warning system. Foresight 2005, 7(4):22-30.
7. Aldrich H. Organizations and Environments 1979, Prentice-Hall, New York.
8. Miller D. Environmental fit versus internal fit. Org. Sci. 1992, 3(2):159-178.
9. Porter M.E. What is strategy?. Harv. Bus. Rev. 1996, 74:61-78.
10. Miles R.E., Snow C.C. Fit, Failure and the Hall of Fame: How Companies Succeed or Fail 1994, The Free Press, New-York.
11. Venkatraman N. The concept of fit in strategy research: toward verbal and statistical correspondence. Acad. Manage. Rev. 1989, 14:423-444.
12. Coda V. L'orientamento strategico dell'impresa 1988, Utet, Torino.
13. Daft C., Weick K. Toward a model of organizations as interpretations systems. Acad. Manage. Rev. 1984, 9:284-295.
14. May R.C., Stewart W.J., Sweo Environmental scanning behavior in a transitional economy: evidence from Russia. Acad. Manage. J. 2000.
15. Ansoff H.I. Corporate Strategy: An Analytic Approach to Business Policy for Growth and Expansion 1965, McGrawHill, New York.
16. Andrews K.R. The Concept of Corporate Strategy 1965, Dow Jones-Irwin, Homewood, Ill.
17. Grant R.M. The resource-based theory of competitive advantage: implications for strategy formulation. Calif. Manage. Rev. 1994, 33(3):114-135.
18. D'Aveni R.A. Hypercompetition: Managing the Dynamics of Strategic Maneuvering 1994, Free Press.
19. Stacey R.D. Managing the Unknowable: Strategic Boundaries between Order and Chaos in Organizations 1992, Jossey-Bass, San Francisco.
20. Nutt P. Formulation tactics and the success of organizational decision making. Decis. Sci. 2007, 23(3):519-540.
21. Reger G. Technology foresight in companies: from an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technol. Anal. Strateg. 2001, 13(4):533-553.
22. Postma T., Liebl F. How to improve scenarios as a strategic management tool?. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2005, 72:161-173.
23. Chermack T.J. A theoretical model of scenario planning. Hum. Resour. Dev. Rev. December 2004.
24. Van der Steen M., van Twist M., van der Vlist M., Demkes R. Integrating futures studies with organizational development: design options for the scenario project RWS2020. Futures 2011, 43(3):337-347.
25. Wack P. Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harv. Bus. Rev. 1985, 139-150.
26. Schwartz P. The Art of Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World 1991, Currency Doubleday, New York.
27. Becker P. Corporate Foresight in Europe: A First Overview 2002, Institution for Science and Technology Studies, Bielefeld.
28. Van Der Haijden K. Can internally generated futures accelerate organizational learning?. Foresight 2004, 36(2):145-159.
29. Burmeister K., Neef A., Beyers B. Corporate Foresight: Unternehmen gestalten Zukunft 2004, Murmann, Hamburg.
30. Fink A., Schlake O., Siebe A. Szenarien im Innovationsmanagement. Das reagible Unternehmen 2000, 375-394. ALB-HNIVerlagsschriftenreihe, Paderborn. W. Dangelmaier, W. Felser (Eds.).
31. Kaivo-oja J. Towards Integration of Innovation Systems and Foresight Research in Firms and Corporations: The Classical Takeuchi-Nonaka Model Reconsidered and Reformulated 2006, Finland Futures Research Center Publications, Turku.
32. van der Duin P.A. Qualitative Futures Research for Innovation 2006, Eburon, Delft.
33. von der Gracht H.A., Vennemann C., Darkow I.L. Corporate foresight and innovation management: a portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures 2010.
34. Vecchiato R., Roveda C. Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2010.
35. Schwarz O.J. Assessing the future of futures studies in management. Futures 2008, 40(3):237-246.
36. Lempert R.J., Popper S.W., Bankes S.C. Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative Long-Term Policy Analysis 2003, The RAND Pardee Center, Santa Monica, CA.
37. Popper R. How are foresight methods selected?. Foresight 2008, 10(6):62-89.
38. Van Den Ende J., Mulder K., Knot M., Moors E., Vergragt P. Traditional and modern technology assessment: toward a toolkit. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 1998, 58(1-2):5-21.
39. Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the fields and new methods. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2004, 71:287-303. TFAMWG (Technology Futures Analysis Methods Working Group).
40. Glenn J.C., Gordon T.J. Futures Research Methodology - V2.0. AC/UNU Millennium Project 2003.
41. Tran T., Daim T. A taxonomic review of methods and tools applied in technology assessment. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2008, 75(9):1396-1405.
42. Godwin P., Wright G. The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2010, 77(3):355-368.
43. Höjer M., Mattsson L.G. Determinism and backcasting in future studies. Futures 2000, 32(7):613-634.
44. Bradfield R., Wright G., Burt G., Cairns G., Van Der Heijden K. The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures 2005, 37(8):795-812.
45. Bishop P., Hines A., Collins T. The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. Foresight 2007, 9(1):5-25.
46. van Notten P.W.F., Rotmans J., van Asselt M.B.A., Rothman D.S. An updated scenario typology. Futures 2003, 35:423-443.
47. Ringland G. Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future 1998, Wiley, Chichester, New York.
48. Voros J. Introducing a classification framework for prospective methods. Foresight 2006, 8(2):43-56.
49. Huss W.R., Honton E.J. Alternative methods for developing business scenarios. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 1987, 31(3):219-238.
50. Popper R. Foresight methodology. The Handbook of Technology Foresight 2008, Edward Elgar, Aldershot. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena, M. Keenan, I. Miles, R. Popper (Eds.).
51. Keenan M., Popper R. RIF (Research Infrastructures Foresight): Practical Guide for Integrating Foresight in Research Infrastructures Policy Formulation 2007, European Commission, Brussels.
52. Postma T.J.B., Liebl F. How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2005, 72(2):161-173.
53. Steinert M. A dissensus based online Delphi approach: an explorative research tool. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2009, 76:291-300.
54. Agami N.M.E., Omran A.M.A., Saleh M.M., El-Shishiny H.E.E. An enhanced approach for Trend Impact Analysis. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2008, 75(9):1439-1450.
55. Agami N.M.E., Atiya A., Saleh M.M., El-Shishiny H.E.E. A neural network based dynamic forecasting model for Trend Impact Analysis. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2009, 76(7):952-962.
56. Curry A., Hodgson A. Seeing in multiple horizons: connecting futures to strategy. J. Futures Stud. 2009, 13(1):1-20.
57. Chao K. A new look at the cross-impact matrix and its application in futures studies. J. Futures Stud. 2008, 12(4):45-52.
58. E. Patokorpi, M. Ahvenainen, Developing an abduction-based method for futures research, Futures 41(3) (2009) 126-139.
59. Markard J., Stadelmann M., Truffer B. Prospective analysis of technological innovation systems: identifying technological and organizational development options for biogas in Switzerland. Res. Policy 2009, 38(4):655-667.
60. Schwarz J.O. Assessing the future of futures studies in management. Futures 2008, 40(3):237-246.
61. Mann D.L. Better technology forecasting using systematic innovation methods. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2003, 70(8):779-795.
62. Porter A.L. QTIP: Quick technology intelligence process. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2005, 72(9):1070-1081.
63. Banuls V.A., Salmeron J.L. A scenario-based assessment model - SBAM. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2007, 74(6):750-762.
64. Acar W., Druckenmiller D. Endowing cognitive mapping with computational properties for strategic analysis. Futures 2006, 38(8):993-1009.
65. Schwarz J.O. Assessing the future of futures studies in management. Futures 2008, 40(3):237-246.
66. Chandler A. Strategy and Structure: Chapters in the History of the Industrial Enterprise 1962, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
67. Ackoff R.L. Redesigning the Future 1974, Wiley, New York.
68. Hofer C.W., Schendel D. Strategy Formulation: Analytical Concepts 1978, West Pub. Co., St. Paul.
69. Hamel G., Prahalad C.K. Competing For The Future 1994, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA.
70. Campbell A., Goold M. Building Core Skills, Ashridge Strategic Management Centre paper October 1991.
71. Hax A.C., Wilde D.L. The Delta Project: Discovering New Sources of Profitability in a Networked Economy 1999, Palgrave, New York.
72. Chermack T.J. Improving decision-making with scenario planning. Futures 2004, 36:295-309.
73. Postma T.J.B.M., Liebl F. How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2005, 72(2):161-173.
74. Mendosa S., Pina e Cunha M., Kaivo-oja J., Ruff F. Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation. Futures 2004, 36:201-218.
75. Godet M. Veille prospective et flexibilité stratégique. Futuribles September 1985, 91:3-9.
76. Isernia P. Introduzione agli scenari. Futuro e complessità. Metodologie per la previsione 1987, AA. VV. (Ed.).
77. Huss I. Scenario planning - what style should you use?. Long Range Plan 1987, 20:21-29.
78. Von Reibnitz U. Szenarien-Optionen für die Zukunft 1987, McGrawHill.
79. Boaventura J.M.G., Fischmann A.A. Is your vision consistent? A method for checking, based on scenario concepts. Futures 2008, 40:597-612.
80. Porter A.L. Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2004, 71(3):287-303.
81. Eisenhardt K. Building theories from case-study research. Acad. Manage. 1989, 14(4):532-550.
82. McCutcheon D.M., Meredith J.R. Conducting case study research in operations management. J. Oper. Manag. 1993, 11(3):239-256.
83. Meredith J. Building operations management theory through case and field research. J. Oper. Manag. 1998, 16(4):441-454.
84. Yin R.K. Case study research design and methods. Applied Social Research Methods Series 2003, Sage Newbury Park, Calif.
85. Dane F.C. Research Methods 1990, Brokers/Cole, Pacific Groove, CA.
86. Porter M. Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors 2004, Simon & Schuster Ltd.
87. Gill R. Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future 1986, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.
88. Larwood L., Falbe C.M., Kriger M.P., Miesing P. Structure and meaning of organizational vision. Acad. Manage. J. 1995, 38(3):740-769.
89. Kantabutra S., Avery G.C. The power of vision: statements that resonate. J. Bus. Strategy 2010, 31(1):37-45.
90. Dlakey N., Helmer O. The Delphi Method: An Experimental Application of Group Opinion 1972, Rand Corporation.
91. Boyatzis R. Transforming Qualitative Information: Thematic Analysis and Code Development 1998, Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA.
92. Flick U. An Introduction to Qualitative Research 2009, Sage Publications, London. 4th ed.
93. Kurzweil R. The Singularity is Near 2006, Viking Press, New York.
94. Weiser M. The Computer for the 21st Century. Sci. Am. 1991, 265(9):66-75.