Managerial hyperopia: A potential unintended consequence of foresight in a top management team?

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 101, Issue , 2015, Pages 134-146

  Burt, George ^a   Mackay, David J ^b   Perchard, Andrew ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF STIRLING   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF STRATHCLYDE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Foresightful learning; Hyperopia; Myopia; Scenario planning; Unintended consequences

Indexed keywords

MANAGERS;

FORESIGHTFUL LEARNING; HYPEROPIA; MYOPIA; SCENARIO PLANNING; UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES;

HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT;

EID: 84930956763     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.001     Document Type: Article

References (94)

1. de Geus A.P. Planning as learning. Harv. Bus. Rev. 1988, 66(2):70-74.
2. March J.G. Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organ. Sci. 1991, 2(1):71-87.
3. Gavetti G., Levinthal D. Looking forward and looking backward: cognitive and experiential search. Adm. Sci. Q. 2000, 45(1):113-137.
4. Rohrbeck R., Gemunden H.G. Corporate foresight: its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2011, 78(2):231-243.
5. Burt G. Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with scenario methodology to help identify surprises, disruptions and discontinuities. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2007, 74(6):731-749.
6. Burt G., van der Heijden K. Towards a framework to understand purpose in futures studies: the role of vickers appreciative system. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2008, 75(8):1109-1127.
7. Day G.S., Schoemaker P.J.H. Driving through the fog: managing at the edge. Long Range Plan. 2004, 37(2):127-142.
8. Winter S.G. Specialised perception, selection, and strategic surprise: learning from the moths and bees. Long Range Plan. 2004, 37(2):163-169.
9. Cunha M.P., Chia R. Using teams to avoid peripheral blindness. Long Range Plan. 2007, 40(6):559-573.
10. Ingvar D.H. Memories of the future, an essay on the temporal organisation of conscious awareness. Hum. Neurobiol. 1985, 4(3):127-136.
11. Jullien F. A Treatise of Efficacy between Western and Chinese Thinking 2004, University of Hawai'I Press, Honolulu.
12. Stubbart C. Are environmental scanning units effective?. Long Range Plan. 1982, 15(3):139-145.
13. Grant R.M., Cibin R. Strategy, structure and market turbulence: The international oil majors, 1970-1991. Scand. J. Manag. 1996, 12(2):165-188.
14. Levinthal D.A., March J.G. The myopia of learning. Strateg. Manag. J. 1993, 14(S2):95-112.
15. Porac J., Rosa J.A. In praise of managerial narrow-mindedness. J. Manag. Inq. 1996, 5(1):35-42.
16. Larwood L., Whittaker W. Managerial myopia: self-serving biases in organizational planning. J. Appl. Psychol. 1997, 62(2):194-198.
17. Miller K.D. Knowledge inventories and managerial myopia. Strateg. Manag. J. 2002, 23(8):689-706.
18. Meyer A.D. Adapting to environmental jolts. Adm. Sci. Q. 1982, 27(4):515-537.
19. Meyer A.D., Brooks G.R., Goes J.B. Environmental jolts and industry revolutions. Strateg. Manag. J. 1990, 11(1):93-110.
20. Cunha M.P., Clegg S.R., Kamoche K. Surprises in Management and organisation: concept, sources and a typology. Br. J. Manag. 2006, 17(4):317-329.
21. Laverty K.J. Economic short-termism: the debate, the unresolved issues, and the implications for management practice and research. Acad. Manag. Rev. 1996, 21(3):825-860.
22. Wack P. Scenarios: unchartered waters ahead. Harv. Bus. Rev. 1985, 63(5):73-89.
23. Wack P. Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harv. Bus. Rev. 1985, 63(6):139-150.
24. Chikudate N. Collective hyperopia and dualistic natures of CSR in Japanese companies. Asian. Bus. Manag. 2009, 8(2):169-184.
25. Jarrett D., Stiles D. How are methodologies and tools framing managers strategizing practice in competitive strategy development?. Br. J. Manag. 2010, 21(1):28-43.
26. Vaughan D. The dark side of organisations: mistake, misconduct and disaster. Annu. Rev. Sociol. 1999, 25:271-305.
27. Barr PS Stimpert J.L., Huff A.S. Cognitive change, strategic action, and organizational renewal. Strateg. Manag. J. 1992, 13(Summer S1):15-36.
28. Lawrence P.R., Lorsch J.W. Organisation and Environment: Managing Differentiation and Integration 1967, Graduate School of Administration, Harvard University, Boston.
29. Pfeffer J., Salancik G.R. The external control of organisation: a resource dependency perspective 1978, Harper & Row, New York.
30. Hambrick D.C. Environmental scanning and organizational strategy. Strateg. Manag. J. 1982, 3(2):159-174.
31. Smircich L., Stubbart C. Strategic management in an enacted world. Acad. Manag. Rev. 1985, 10(4):724-736.
32. Chia R.C.H., Holt R. Strategy Without Design, The Silent Efficacy of Indirect Action 2009, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
33. Weick K.E. Sensemaking in Organisations 1995, Sage Publications Ltd., London.
34. Chia R. From complex thinking to complex science. Organization 1998, 5(3):341-369.
35. Amit R., Schoemaker P.J.H. Strategic assets and organisational rent. Strateg. Manag. J. 1993, 14(1):33-46.
36. Bohm D. Unfolding Meaning: A Weekend of Dialogue 1985, Routledge, London.
37. Child J. Organisational structure, environment and performance: the role of strategic choice. Sociology 1972, 6(1):1-22.
38. Simon H.A. Models of Man: Social and Rational 1957, John Wiley and Sons, Oxford.
39. Simon H.A. Bounded rationality and organisational learning. Organ. Sci. 1991, 2(1):125-134.
40. Ginter P.M., Duncan W.J. Macroenvironmental analysis for strategic management. Long Range Plan. 1990, 23(6):91-100.
41. Aguilar F.J. Scanning the Business Environment 1967, MacMillan, New York.
42. Fahey L., King W.R., Narayanan V.K. Environmental scanning and forecasting: the state of the art. Long Range Plan. 1981, 14(1):32-39.
43. Daft R.L., Sormunen J., Parks D. Chief executive scanning, environmental characteristics and firm performance: an empirical study. Strateg. Manag. J. 1988, 9(2):123-139.
44. Hambrick D.C., Snow C.C. A contextual model of strategic decision making in organizations. Acad. Manag. Proc. 1977, 109-112.
45. Hickson D.J., Hinnings C.R., Lee C.A., Schneck R.E., Pennings J.M. A strategic contingencies' theory of intra-organizational power. Adm. Sci. Q. 1971, 16(2):216-229.
46. Miller D. Some organizational consequences of CEO succession. Acad. Manag. J. 1993, 36(3):644-659.
47. Whitehead A.N. Process and Reality, edited by DR Griffin and DW Sherburne 1933, Free Press, New York.
48. Kahn H. Thinking About the Unthinkable 1962, Weidenfeld and Nicolson, London.
49. Kahn H., Wiener A.J. The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next 33Years 1967, MacMillan, New York.
50. Wilson I.H. Futures forecasting for strategic planning at general electric. Long Range Plan. 1973, 6(2):39-42.
51. Klein H.E., Linneman R.E. The use of scenarios in corporate planning-eight case histories. Long Range Plan. 1981, 14(5):69-77.
52. Zetner R.D. Scenarios, past, present and future. Long Range Plan. 1982, 15(3):12-20.
53. Schoemaker P.J.H. Multiple scenario development: its conceptual and behavioural foundation. Strateg. Manag. J. 1993, 14(3):193-213.
54. Grant R.M. Strategic planning in a turbulent environment: evidence from the oil majors. Strateg. Manag. J. 2003, 24(6):491-517.
55. van der Heijden K. Scenarios, the Art of Strategic Conversation 2005, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester. 2nd ed.
56. van der Heijden K., Bradfield R., Burt G., Cairns G., Wright G. The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning with Scenarios 2002, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.
57. Leemhuis J.P. Using scenarios to develop strategies. Long Range Plan. 1985, 18(2):30-37.
58. Howick S., Eden C. Supporting strategic conversations: the significance of a quantitative model building process. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 2010, 62(5):1-11.
59. Eden C. Strategic management as a social process. J. Manag. Stud. 1992, 29:799-811.
60. Hendry J. Strategic decision making discourse and strategy as social practice. J. Manag. Stud. 2000, 37(7):955-978.
61. Chermack T.J., van der Merwe L. The role of constructivist learning in scenario planning. Futures 2003, 35(5):445-460.
62. Schwartz P. The Art of the Long View 1991, Doubleday Currency, New York.
63. Eden C., Ackermann F. Making Strategy: Mapping Out Strategic Success 2011, Sage Publications Ltd., London.
64. Eden C., Ackermann F., Brown I. The Practice of Making Strategy: A Step-by-Step Guide 2005, Sage Publications Ltd., London.
65. Sayer A. Method in Social Science 1992, Routledge, London. 2nd ed.
66. Flanaghan J.C. The critical incident technique. Psychol. Bull. 1954, 51(4):327-358.
67. Burgess R.G. In the Field-An Introduction to Field Research 1984, Routledge, London.
68. Tremblay M.-A. The key informant technique: a non-ethnographic application. Field Research: a Sourcebook and Field Manual 1982, 98-104. Routledge, London. R.G. Burgess (Ed.).
69. Herriot P., Manning W.E.G., Kidd J.M. The content of the psychological contract. Br. J. Manag. 1997, 8(2):151-162.
70. Sole D., Edmondson A. Situated knowledge and learning in dispersed teams. Br. J. Manag. 2002, 13(SI2):17-34.
71. Butterfield L.D., Borgen W.A., Amundson N.E., Maglio A.T. Fifty years of the critical incident technique: 1954-2004 and beyond. Qual. Res. 2005, 5(4):475-497.
72. Sandberg J., Tsoukas H. Grasping the logic of practice: theorizing through practical rationality. Acad. Manag. Rev. 2011, 36(2):338-360.
73. Woolsey L.K. The critical incident technique: an innovative qualitative method of research. Can. J. Couns. 1986, 20(4):242-254.
74. Maxwell J.A. Qualitative Research Design-An Interactive Approach 2005, Sage Publications Ltd., London.
75. Miles M.B., Huberman A.M. Qualitative Data Analysis 1994, Sage Publications Ltd., Thousand Oaks, CA.
76. Yin R.K. Case Study Research: Design and Methods 2003, Sage Publications Limited, Beverly Hills.
77. Strauss A., Corbin J. Basics of Qualitative Research: Grounded Theory Procedures and Techniques 1990, Sage Publications Ltd., Newbury Park, CA.
78. Eisenhardt K.M. Building theories from case study research. Acad. Manag. Rev. 1989, 14(4):532-550.
79. Ainslie G. Specious reward: a behavioural theory of impulsiveness and impulse control. Psychol. Bull. 1975, 82(April):463-496.
80. Hirschman E.C., Holbrook M.B. Hedonic consumption: emerging concepts, methods, and propositions. J. Mark. 1982, 46(Summer):92-101.
81. Schelling T.C. Self-command in practice, in policy, and in a theory of rational choice. Am. Econ. Assoc. Proc. 1984, 74(May):1-11.
82. Schelling T.C. Self-command: a new discipline. Choice Over Time 1992, 167-176. Sage, New York. G. Lowenstein, J. Elster (Eds.).
83. Hoch S., Lowenstein G. Time-inconsistent preferences and consumer self-control. J. Consum. Mark. 1991, 17(March):492-507.
84. Trope Y., Fishbach A. Counter-active self-control in overcoming temptation. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 2000, 79(4):493-506.
85. Kivetz K., Simonson I. Self-control for the righteous: toward a theory of precommitment to indulgence. J. Consum. Res. 2002, 29(2):199-217.
86. Kivetz R., Keinan A. Repenting hyperopia: an analysis of self-control regrets. J. Consum. Res. 2006, 33(2):273-282.
87. Merton R.K. Unanticipated consequences of purposive social action. Am. Sociol. Rev. 1936, 1(6):894-904.
88. Johnson G. Strategic Change and the Management Process 1987, Basil Blackwell Ltd., London.
89. Janis I.L. Victims of Groupthink: A Psychological Study of Foreign-Policy Decisions and Fiascoes 1972, Houghton Mifflin, Boston.
90. Rumelt R.P. Inertia and transformation. Resource-Based and Evolutionary Theories of the Firm: Towards a Synthesis 1995, 101-132. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston. C.A. Montgomery (Ed.).
91. Pettigrew A., Whipp R. Managing Change for Competitive Success 1991, Blackwell Business, Oxford.
92. nd ed) 1997, Miles River Press, New York.
93. Miller A. Tunnel vision in environmental management. Environmentalist 1982, 2(3):223-231.
94. O'Reilly C.A., Tushman M. Ambidexterity as a dynamic capability: resolving the innovator's dilemma. Res. Organ. Behav. 2008, 28:185-206.