Environmental favourability as a cost-efficient tool to estimate carrying capacity

Diversity and Distributions

Volumn 21, Issue 12, 2015, Pages 1388-1400

  Muñoz, Antonio Román ^a   Jiménez Valverde, Alberto ^b,c   Márquez, Ana Luz ^a   Moleón, Marcos ^d,e   Real, Raimundo ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MÁLAGA   (Spain)

^b MUSEO NACIONAL DE CIENCIAS NATURALES   (Spain)

^c UNIVERSITY OF ALCALÁ   (Spain)

^d UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND   (South Africa)

^e MIGUEL HERNÁNDEZ UNIVERSITY   (Spain)

Author keywords

Aquila fasciata; Local density; Probability of occurrence; Quantile regression; Species distribution modelling

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE ESTIMATION; BIODIVERSITY; BIOGEOGRAPHY; CARRYING CAPACITY; COST ANALYSIS; ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION ECOLOGY; POPULATION MODELING; PROBABILITY; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; SPECIES CONSERVATION; SPECIES OCCURRENCE; SURROGATE METHOD;

ANDALUCIA; SPAIN;

AQUILA;

EID: 84946480302     PISSN: 13669516     EISSN: 14724642     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12352     Document Type: Article

References (91)

1. Acevedo, P. & Real, R. (2012) Favourability: concept, distinctive characteristics and potential usefulness. Naturwissenschaften, 99, 515-522.
2. Andrewartha, H.G. & Birch, L.C. (1954) The distribution and abundance of animals. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
3. Araújo, M.B. & Williams, P.H. (2001) The bias of complementarity hotspots toward marginal populations. Conservation Biology, 15, 1710-1720.
4. Araújo, M.B., Thuiller, W., Williams, P.H. & Reginster, I. (2005) Downscaling European species atlas distributions to a finer resolution: implications for conservation planning. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 17-30.
5. Barbosa, A.M., Real, R. & Vargas, J.M. (2009) Transferability of environmental favourability models in geographic space: the case of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in Portugal and Spain. Ecological Modelling, 220, 747-754.
6. Bautista, J., Gil-Sánchez, J.M., Otero, M., Moleón, M., Martín, J., Moral, M., Martín, F.J. & Luque, E. (2006) Situación actual del águila real en Andalucía. Quercus, 245, 10-16.
7. Benjamini, Y. & Hochberg, Y. (1995) Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 57, 289-300.
8. BirdLife International. (2004) Birds in Europe. Population estimates, trends and conservation status, BirdLife Conservation Series no. 12. BirdLife International, Cambridge, UK.
9. BirdLife International/EBCC. (2000) European bird populations: estimates and trends. BirdLife Conservation Series no. 10. BirdLife International, Cambridge, UK.
10. Borcard, D., Legendre, P. & Drapeau, P. (1992) Partialling out the spatial component of ecological variation. Ecology, 73, 1045-1055.
11. Brown, J.H. (1984) On the relationship between abundance and distribution of species. The American Naturalist, 124, 255-279.
12. Cadahía, L., López-López, P., Urios, V. & Negro, J.J. (2009) Natal dispersal and recruitment of two Bonelli's eagles Aquila fasciata: a four-year satellite tracking study. Acta Ornithologica, 44, 193-198.
13. Cadahía, L., López-López, P., Urios, V. & Negro, J.J. (2010) Satellite telemetry reveals individual variation in juvenile Bonelli's eagle dispersal areas. European Journal of Wildlife Research, 56, 923-930.
14. Cade, B.S. & Noon, B.R. (2003) A gentle introduction to quantile regression for ecologists. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 1, 412-420.
15. Carrascal, L.M. & Seoane, J. (2009) Factors affecting large-scale distribution of the Bonelli's Eagle Aquila fasciata in Spain. Ecological Research, 24, 565-573.
16. Carrete, M., Sánchez-Zapata, J.A., Tella, J.L., Gil-Sánchez, J.M. & Moleón, M. (2006) Components of breeding performance in two competing species: habitat heterogeneity, individual quality and density-dependence. Oikos, 112, 680-690.
17. Consejería de Medio Ambiente. (2006) Programa de Actuaciones para la Conservación del Águila Perdicera en Andalucía. Technical report. Egmasa-Consejería de Medio Ambiente, Junta de Andalucía, Jaén.
18. Del Hoyo, J., Elliot, A. & Sargatal, J. (1994) Handbook of the birds of the world. Vol. II. New world vultures to guineafowl. Lynx Edicions, Barcelona.
19. Del Moral, J.C. (2006) El águila perdicera en España. Población en 2005 y método de censo. SEO/BirdLife, Madrid.
20. Devictor, V., Julliard, R. & Jiguet, F. (2008) Distribution of specialist and generalist species along spatial gradients of habitat disturbance and fragmentation. Oikos, 117, 507-514.
21. Díaz-Gómez, D.L., Toxopeus, A.G., Groen, T.A., Muñoz, A.R., Skidmore, A.K. & Real, R. (2013) Measuring the Insecurity Index of species in networks of protected areas using species distribution modeling and fuzzy logic: the case of raptors in Andalusia. Ecological Indicators, 26, 174-182.
22. Estrada, A. & Arroyo, B. (2012) Occurrence vs abundance models: differences between species with varying aggregation patterns. Biological Conservation, 152, 37-45.
23. Estrada, J., Pedrocchi, V., Brotons, L. & Herrando, S. (2004) Atles dels ocells nidificants de Catalunya 1999-2002(1999-2002). Lynx Edicions, Barcelona.
24. Farr, T.G. & Kobrick, M. (2000) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission produces a wealth of data. EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 81, 583-585.
25. Font, I. (1983) Atlas climático de España. Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Madrid, Spain.
26. Font, I. (2000) Climatología de España y Portugal. Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain.
27. García, L.V. (2003) Controlling the false discovery rate in ecological research. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 18, 553-554.
28. Gil-Sánchez, J.M., Molino, F. & Valenzuela, G. (1996) Selección de habitat de nidificación por el Águila Perdicera (Hieraaetus fasciatus) en Granada (SE de España). Ardeola, 43, 189-197.
29. Gil-Sánchez, J.M., Moleón, M., Otero, M. & Bautista, J. (2004) A nine-year study of successful breeding in a Bonelli's eagle population in southeast Spain: a basis for conservation. Biological Conservation, 118, 685-694.
30. Graham, M.H. (2003) Confronting multicollinearity in ecological multiple regression. Ecology, 84, 2809-2815.
31. Guarino, E.S.G., Barbosa, A.M. & Waechter, J.L. (2012) Occurrence and abundance models of threatened plant species: applications to mitigate the impact of hydroelectric power dams. Ecological Modelling, 230, 22-33.
32. Guisan, A. & Thuiller, W. (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters, 8, 993-1009.
33. Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 135, 147-186.
34. Gutiérrez, D., Harcourt, J., Díez, S.B., Gutiérrez Illán, J. & Wilson, R.J. (2013) Models of presence-absence estimate abundance as well as (or even better than) models of abundance: the case of the butterfly Parnassius apollo. Landscape Ecology, 28, 401-413.
35. Hagemaijer, E.J.M. & Blair, M.J. (1997) The EBCC Atlas of European breeding birds: their distribution and abundance. T & A D Poyser, London.
36. Hengeveld, R. & Haeck, J. (1982) The distribution of abundance. I. Measurements. Journal of Biogeography, 5, 303-316.
37. Hernández-Matías, A., Real, J., Moleón, M., Palma, L., Sánchez-Zapata, J.A., Pradel, R., Carrete, M., Gil-Sánchez, J.M., Beja, P., Balbontín, J., Vincent-Martin, N., Ravayrol, A., Benítez, J.R., Arroyo, B., Fernández, C., Ferreiro, E. & García, J. (2013) From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the endangered Bonelli's eagle Aquila fasciata in Western Europe. Ecological Monographs, 83, 239-261.
38. Hosmer, D.W. Jr & Lemeshow, S. (2000) Applied logistic regression, 2nd edn. John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.
39. I.G.M.E. (1979) Mapa hidrogeológico nacional. Explicación de los mapas de lluvia útil, de reconocimiento hidrogeológico y de síntesis de los sistemas acuíferos, 2nd edn. Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Madrid, Spain.
40. I.G.N. (1999) Mapa de carreteras. Península Ibérica, Baleares y Canarias. Instituto Geográfico Nacional/Ministerio de Fomento, Madrid, Spain.
41. IUCN. (2014) The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2014.2. Available at: http://www.iucnredlist.org/ (accessed 17 March 2015).
42. Jiménez-Valverde, A. (2011) Relationship between local population density and environmental suitability estimated from occurrence data. Frontiers of Biogeography, 3, 59-61.
43. Jiménez-Valverde, A. (2014) Threshold-dependence as a desirable attribute for discrimination assessment: implications for the evaluation of species distribution models. Biodiversity and Conservation, 23, 369-385.
44. Jiménez-Valverde, A., Diniz, F., de Azevedo, E.B. & Borges, P.A.V. (2009) Species distribution models do not account for abundance: the case of arthropods on Terceira Island. Annales Zoologici Fennici, 46, 451-464.
45. Jiménez-Valverde, A., Acevedo, P., Barbosa, A.M., Lobo, J.M. & Real, R. (2013) Discrimination capacity in species distribution models depends on the representativeness of the environmental domain. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 22, 508-516.
46. Koenker, R. (2011) quantreg: Quantile Regression. R package version 4.67. Available at: http://CRAN.R-project.org/packagequantreg (accessed 17 March 2015).
47. Koenker, R. & Machado, J.A.F. (1999) Goodness of fit and related inference processes for quantile regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 1296-1310.
48. Legendre, P. (1993) Spatial autocorrelation: trouble or new paradigm? Ecology, 74, 1659-1673.
49. Legendre, P. & Legendre, L. (1998) Numerical ecology, Second English Edition. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam.
50. Lobo, J.M., Jiménez-Valverde, A. & Real, R. (2008) AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17, 145-151.
51. López-López, P., García-Ripollés, C., Aguilar, J.M., García-López, F. & Verdejo, J. (2006) Modelling breeding habitat preferences of Bonelli's Eagle (Hieraaetus fasciatus) in relation to topography, disturbance, climate and land use at different spatial scales. Journal of Ornithology, 147, 97-107.
52. MacArthur, R. (1960) On the relative abundance of species. The American Naturalist, 94, 25-34.
53. Márquez, A.L., Real, R. & Vargas, J.M. (2004) Dependence of broad-scale geographical variation in fleshy-fruited plant species richness on disperser bird species richness. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 13, 295-304.
54. Márquez, A.L., Real, R., Olivero, J. & Estrada, A. (2011) Combining climate with other influential factors for modelling the impact of climate change on species distribution. Climatic Change, 108, 135-157.
55. Maurer, B. (1994) Geographic population analysis: tools for the analysis of biodiversity. Blackwell Scientific Publications, Oxford.
56. Moleón, M. (2006) El águila perdicera en Andalucía. El águila perdicera en España. Población en 2005 y método de censo (ed. by J.C. del Moral ), pp. 24-30. SEO/Birdlife, Madrid.
57. Moleón, M., Sánchez-Zapata, J.A., Gil-Sánchez, J.M., Ballesteros-Duperón, E., Barea-Azcón, J.M. & Virgós, E. (2012) Predator-prey relationships in a Mediterranean vertebrate system: Bonelli's eagles, rabbits and partridges. Oecologia, 168, 679-689.
58. Muñoz, A.R. & Real, R. (2013) Distribution of Bonelli's Eagle Aquila fasciata in southern Spain: scale may matter. Acta Ornithologica, 48, 93-101.
59. Muñoz, A.R., Real, R., Barbosa, A.M. & Vargas, J.M. (2005) Modelling the distribution of Bonelli's eagle in Spain: implications for conservation planning. Diversity and Distributions, 11, 477-486.
60. Muñoz, A.R., Márquez, A.L. & Real, R. (2013) Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species. PLoS ONE, 8, e65462.
61. Newton, I. (1991) Habitat variation and population regulation in sparrowhawks. Ibis, 133(Suppl. 1), 76-88.
62. Newton, I. (1998) Population limitation in birds. Academic Press, London, UK.
63. Nielsen, S.E., Johnson, C.J., Heard, D.C. & Boyce, M.S. (2005) Can models of presence-absence be used to scale abundance? Two case studies considering extremes in life history. Ecography, 28, 197-208.
64. Passy, S.I. (2012) A hierarchical theory of macroecology. Ecology Letters, 15, 923-934.
65. Pearce, J. & Ferrier, S. (2000) Evaluating the predictive performance of habitat models developed using logistic regression. Ecological Modelling, 133, 225-245.
66. Pearce, J. & Ferrier, S. (2001) The practical value of modelling relative abundance of species for regional conservation planning: a case study. Biological Conservation, 98, 33-43.
67. Pedrini, P. & Sergio, F. (2002) Regional conservation priorities for a large predator: golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Alpine range. Biological Conservation, 103, 163-172.
68. Peterson, A.T. (2006) Uses and requirements of ecological niche models and related distributional models. Biodiversity Informatics, 3, 59-72.
69. R Development Core Team (2011) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria : the R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Available at: http://www.R-project.org/ (accessed 17 March 2015).
70. Real, J. (2003) Águila-azor perdicera. Atlas de las aves reproductoras de España (ed. by R. Martí and J.C. del Moral ), pp. 192-193. Dirección General de Conservación de la naturaleza-Sociedad Española de Ornitología, Madrid.
71. Real, R., Barbosa, A.M., Porras, D., Kin, M.S., Márquez, A.L., Guerrero, J.C., Palomo, L.J., Justo, E.R. & Vargas, J.M. (2003) Relative importance of environment, human activity and spatial situation in determining the distribution of terrestrial mammal diversity in Argentina. Journal of Biogeography, 30, 939-947.
72. Real, R., Barbosa, A.M. & Vargas, J.M. (2006) Obtaining environmental favourability functions from logistic regression. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 13, 237-245.
73. Real, R., Barbosa, A.M., Rodríguez, A., García, F.J., Vargas, J.M., Palomo, L.J. & Delibes, M. (2009) Conservation biogeography of ecologically interacting species: the case of the Iberian lynx and the European rabbit. Diversity and Distributions, 15, 390-400.
74. Real, R., Romero, D., Olivero, J., Estrada, A. & Márquez, A.L. (2013) Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution. PLoS ONE, 8, e53646.
75. Rocamora, G. (1994) Bonelli's Eagle Hieraaetus fasciatus. Birds in Europe, their conservation status (ed. by G.M. Tucker and M.F. Heath ), pp. 184-185. BirdLife International, Cambridge, UK (BirdLife Conservation Series n° 3).
76. Sagarin, R.D. & Gaines, S.D. (2002) The 'abundant centre' distribution: to what extent is it a biogeographical rule? Ecology Letters, 5, 137-147.
77. Sagarin, R.D., Gaines, S.D. & Gaylord, B. (2006) Moving beyond assumptions to understand abundance distributions across the ranges of species. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 21, 524-530.
78. Sarà, M. (2008) Breeding abundance of threatened raptors as estimated from occurrence data. Ibis, 150, 766-778.
79. Sing, T., Sander, O., Beerenwinkel, N. & Lengauer, T. (2009) ROCR: visualizing the performance of scoring classifiers. R package version 1.0-4. Available at: http://cran.r-project.org/package=ROCR (accessed 17 March 2015).
80. Tilman, D. & Kareiva, P. (1997) Spatial ecology, the role of space in population dynamics and interspecific interactions. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
81. Torres, N.M., Júnior, P.M., Santos, T., Silveira, L., Almeida Jácomo, A.T. & Diniz-Filho, J.A.F. (2012) Can species distribution modelling provide estimates of population densities? A case study with jaguars in the Neotropics. Diversity and Distributions, 18, 615-627.
82. US Geological Survey (1996) GTOPO30. Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC), EROS Data Center.
83. Van Couwenberghe, R., Collet, C., Pierrat, J.-C., Verheyen, K. & Gégout, J.-C. (2013) Can species distribution models be used to describe plant abundance patterns? Ecography, 36, 665-674.
84. Van Horne, B. (1983) Density as a misleading indicator of habitat quality. Journal of Wildlife Management, 47, 893-901.
85. VanDerWal, J., Shoo, L.P., Johnson, C.N. & Williams, S.E. (2009) Abundance and the environmental niche: environmental suitability estimated from niche models predicts the upper limit of local abundance. The American Naturalist, 174, 282-291.
86. Wald, A. (1943) Tests of statistical hypotheses concerning several parameters with applications to problems of estimation. Transactions of the American Mathematical Society, 54, 426-482.
87. Whittaker, R.J., Araújo, M.B., Jepson, P., Ladle, R.J., Watson, J.E.M. & Willis, K.J. (2005) Conservation biogeography: assessment and prospect. Diversity and Distributions, 11, 3-23.
88. Williams, P.H., Humphries, C., Araújo, M.B., Lampinen, R., Hagemeijer, W., Gasc, J.-P. & Mitchell-Jones, T. (2000) Endemism and important areas for representing European biodiversity: a preliminary exploration of atlas data for plants and terrestrial vertebrates. Belgian Journal of Entomology, 2, 21-46.
89. Wilson, J.B. (2012) Species presence/absence sometimes represents a plant community as well as species abundances do, or better. Journal of Vegetation Science, 23, 1013-1023.
90. Yañez-Arenas, C., Guevara, R., Martínez-Meyer, E., Mandujano, S. & Lobo, J.M. (2014) Predicting species' abundances from occurrence data: effects of sample size and bias. Ecological Modelling, 294, 36-41.
91. Zuur, A.F., Ieno, E.N. & Elphick, C.S. (2010) A protocol for data exploration to avoid common statistical problems. Methods in Ecology & Evolution, 1, 3-14.