Transferability of environmental favourability models in geographic space: The case of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in Portugal and Spain

Ecological Modelling

Volumn 220, Issue 5, 2009, Pages 747-754

  Barbosa, A Márcia ^a,b,c   Real, Raimundo ^a   Mario Vargas, J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MÁLAGA   (Spain)

^b IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF ÉVORA   (Portugal)

Author keywords

Distribution modelling; Favourability function; Generalized linear models (GLM); Iberian Peninsula; Model extrapolation

Indexed keywords

APPROXIMATION THEORY; EXTRAPOLATION; FUNCTIONS; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION;

DISTRIBUTION MODELLING; FAVOURABILITY FUNCTION; GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELS (GLM); IBERIAN PENINSULA; MODEL EXTRAPOLATION;

MATHEMATICAL MODELS;

CONSERVATION PLANNING; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; HABITAT QUALITY; SMALL MAMMAL;

EURASIA; EUROPE; PORTUGAL; SOUTHERN EUROPE; SPAIN;

GALEMYS PYRENAICUS;

EID: 59149087959     PISSN: 03043800     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.12.004     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Akaike H. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In: Petrov B.N., and Csaki F. (Eds). Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Information Theory (1973), Akadémia Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary 267-281
2. Araújo M.B., Thuiller W., Williams P.H., and Reginster I. Downscaling European species atlas distributions to a finer resolution: implications for conservation planning. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 14 (2005) 17-30
3. Arntzen J.W. From descriptive to predictive distribution models: a working example with Iberian amphibians and reptiles. Frontiers Zool. 3 (2006) 8
4. Arntzen J.W., and Alexandrino J. Ecological modelling of genetically differentiated forms of the Iberian endemic Golden-striped salamander, Chioglossa lusitanica. Herpetol. J. 14 (2004) 137-141
5. Austin M.P. Searching for a model for use in vegetation analysis. Vegetatio 42 (1980) 11-21
6. Barbosa A.M., Real R., Márquez A.L., and Rendón M.A. Spatial, environmental and human influences on the distribution of otter (Lutra lutra) in the Spanish provinces. Diversity Distrib. 7 (2001) 137-144
7. Barbosa A.M., Real R., Olivero J., and Vargas J.M. Otter (Lutra lutra) distribution modeling at two resolution scales suited to conservation planning in the Iberian Peninsula. Biol. Conserv. 114 (2003) 377-387
8. Benjamini Y., and Hochberg Y. Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. J. Royal Stat. Soc. B 57 (1995) 289-300
9. Benjamini Y., and Yekutieli D. The control of the false discovery rate in multiple testing under dependency. Ann. Stat. 29 (2001) 1165-1188
10. Borcard D., Legendre P., and Drapeau P. Partialling out the spatial component of ecological variation. Ecology 73 (1992) 1045-1055
11. Brotons L., Thuiller W., Araújo M.B., and Hirzel A. Presence-absence versus presence-only modelling methods for predicting bird habitat suitability. Ecography 27 (2004) 437-448
12. Brown J.H., and Lomolino M.V. Biogeography. second ed. (1998), Sinauer Associate, Sunderland, MA, USA xii+691 pp.
13. Bulluck L., Fleishman E., Betrus C., and Blair R. Spatial and temporal variations in species occurrence rate affect the accuracy of occurrence models. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 15 (2006) 27-38
14. Cabral, M.J. (coord.), Almeida, J., Almeida, P.R., Dellinger, T., Ferrand de Almeida, N., Oliveira, M.E., Palmeirim, J.M., Queiroz, A.L., Rogado, L., Santos-Reis, M. (Eds.), 2006. Livro Vermelho dos Vertebrados de Portugal. Instituto de Conservação da Natureza, Lisboa, Portugal.
15. Diniz-Filho J.A.F., Bini L.M., and Hawkins B.A. Spatial autocorrelation and red herrings in geographical ecology. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 12 (2003) 53-64
16. Fielding A.H., and Bell J.F. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ. Conserv. 24 (1997) 38-49
17. Fielding A.H., and Haworth P.F. Testing the generality of bird-habitat models. Cons. Biol. 9 (1995) 1466-1481
18. Font I. Atlas climático de España (1983), Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Madrid, Spain 48 pp
19. Font I. Climatología de España y Portugal (2000), Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain 422 pp
20. García L.V. Controlling the false discovery rate in ecological research. Trends Ecol. Evol. 18 (2003) 553-554
21. Gisbert, J., García-Perea, R., 2005. Distribución y factores de amenaza del desmán ibérico, Galemys pyrenaicus, en Extremadura. In: Sociedad Española para la Conservación y el Estudio de los Mamíferos (Ed.), Libro de resúmenes VII Jornadas de la Sociedad Española para la Conservación y Estudio de los Mamíferos. SECEM, Málaga, Spain, pp. 98.
22. Guisan A., and Zimmermann N.E. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol. Model. 135 (2000) 147-186
23. Guisan A., Weiss S.B., and Weiss A.D. GLM versus CCA spatial modeling of plant species distribution. Plant Ecol. 143 (1999) 107-122
24. Hosmer D.W., and Lemeshow S. Applied Logistic Regression. second ed. (2000), John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY, USA 392 pp
25. I.G.N., 1999. Mapa de carreteras. Península Ibérica, Baleares y Canarias. Instituto Geográfico Nacional/Ministerio de Fomento, Madrid, Spain, 1 pp.
26. Jiménez-Valverde A., and Lobo J.M. The ghost of unbalanced species distribution data in geographical model predictions. Diversity Distrib. 12 (2006) 521-524
27. Jiménez-Valverde A., Lobo J.M., and Hortal J. Not as good as they seem: the importance of concepts in species distribution modelling. Diversity Distrib. 14 (2008) 885-890
28. Kühn I. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation may invert observed patterns. Diversity Distrib. 13 (2007) 66-69
29. Legendre P. Spatial autocorrelation: trouble or new paradigm?. Ecology 74 (1993) 1659-1673
30. Legendre P., and Legendre L. Numerical Ecology. second ed. (1998), Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands xv+853 pp
31. Lobo J.M., Jiménez-Valverde A., and Real R. AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 17 (2008) 145-151
32. Manel S., Williams H.C., and Ormerod S.J. Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology: the need to account for prevalence. J. Appl. Ecol. 38 (2001) 921-931
33. McPherson J., Jetz W., and Rogers D.J. The effects of species' range sizes on the accuracy of distribution models: ecological phenomenon or statistical artefact?. J. Appl. Ecol. 41 (2004) 811-823
34. Meynard C.N., and Quinn J.F. Predicting species distributions: a critical comparison of the most common statistical models using artificial species. J. Biogeogr. 34 (2007) 1455-1469
35. Moisen G.G., and Frescino T.S. Comparing five modelling techniques for predicting forest characteristics. Ecol. Model. 157 2-3 (2002) 209-225
36. Nores, C., Queiroz, A.I., Gisbert, J., 2002. Galemys pyrenaicus (E. Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire, 1811). In: Palomo, L.J., Gisbert, J. (Eds.), Atlas de los Mamíferos Terrestres de España. Dirección General de Conservación de la Naturaleza- SECEM-SECEMU, Madrid, Spain, pp. 70-73.
37. Osborne P.E., and Suárez-Seoane S. Should data be partitioned spatially before building large-scale distribution models?. Ecol. Model. 157 (2002) 249-259
38. Palazón, S., Gómez, A., López de Luzuriaga, J., Temiño, C., Alarcia, O., Carreras, J., Pinedo, J., Lopo, L., Arjona, L., Minobis, B., Melero, Y., Ruiz-Olmo, J., Gosálbez, J., 2005. Distribución, estatus y control del visón americano (Mustela vison) en el norte de España. In: Sociedad Española para la Conservación y el Estudio de los Mamíferos (Ed.), Libro de resúmenes VII Jornadas de la Sociedad Española para la Conservación y Estudio de los Mamíferos. SECEM, Málaga, Spain, p. 156.
39. Palomo, L.J., Gisbert, J. (Eds.), 2002. Atlas de los mamíferos terrestres de España. Dirección General de Conservación de la Naturaleza-SECEM-SECEMU, Madrid, Spain, 564 pp.
40. Palomo, L.J., Gisbert, J., Blanco, J.C., 2007. Atlas y libro rojo de los mamíferos terrestres de España. Dirección General para la Biodiversidad-SECEM-SECEMU, Madrid, Spain, 588 pp.
41. Papeş M., and Gaubert P. Modelling ecological niches from low numbers of occurrences: assessment of the conservation status of poorly known viverrids (Mammalia, Carnivora) across two continents. Diversity Distrib. 13 (2007) 890-902
42. Pearce J., and Ferrier S. An evaluation of alternative algorithms for fitting species distribution models using logistic regression. Ecol. Model. 128 (2000) 127-147
43. Peterson A.T., Papeş M., and Eaton M. Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling: a comparison of GARP and Maxent. Ecography 30 (2007) 550-560
44. Phillips S.J. Transferability, sample selection bias and background data in presence-only modelling: a response to Peterson et al. (2007). Ecography 31 (2008) 272-278
45. Post E., and Forchhammer M.C. Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate. Nature 420 (2002) 168-171
46. Queiroz, A.I., Quaresma, C.M., Santos, C.P., Barbosa, A.J., Carvalho, H.M., 1998. Bases para a conservação da toupeira-de-água, Galemys pyrenaicus. Estudos de Biologia e Conservação da Natureza, No. 27. ICN, Lisbon, Portugal, 118 pp.
47. Randin C.F., Dirnböck T., Dullinger S., Zimmermann N.E., Zappa M., and Guisan A. Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?. J. Biogeogr. 33 (2006) 1689-1703
48. Real R., Barbosa A.M., Porras D., Kin M.S., Márquez A.L., Guerrero J.C., Palomo L.J., Justo E.R., and Vargas J.M. Relative importance of environment, human activity and spatial situation in determining the distribution of terrestrial mammal diversity in Argentina. J. Biogeogr. 30 (2003) 939-947
49. Real R., Barbosa A.M., and Vargas J.M. Obtaining environmental favourability functions from logistic regression. Environ. Ecol. Stat. 13 (2006) 237-245
50. Real, R., Barbosa, A.M., Rodríguez, A., García, F.J., Vargas, J.M., Palomo, L.J., Delibes, M., 2008. Conservation biogeography of ecologically interacting species: the case of the Iberian lynx and the European rabbit. Diversity Distrib. (early view), doi:10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00546.x.
51. Reese G.C., Wilson K.R., Hoeting J.A., and Flather C.H. Factors affecting species distribution predictions: a simulation modeling experiment. Ecol. Appl. 15 (2005) 554-564
52. Segurado P., and Araújo M.B. An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions. J. Biogeogr. 31 (2004) 1555-1568
53. Stockwell D.R.B., and Peterson A.T. Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribution models. Ecol. Model. 148 (2002) 1-13
54. Teixeira J., and Arntzen J.W. Potential impact of climate warming on the distribution of the Golden-striped salamander, Chioglossa lusitanica, on the Iberian Peninsula. Biodiversity Conserv. 11 (2002) 2167-2176
55. Teixeira J., Ferrand N., and Arntzen J.W. Biogeography of the golden-striped salamander, Chioglossa lusitanica: a field survey and spatial modelling approach. Ecography 24 (2001) 618-623
56. Thompson W.D., and Walter S.D. A reappraisal of the kappa coefficient. J. Clin. Epidemiol. 41 10 (1988) 949-958
57. U.S. Geological Survey, 1996. GTOPO30. Land Processes Distributed Archive Center, http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/gtopo30.asp.
58. Vaughan I.P., and Ormerod S.J. Improving the quality of distribution models for conservation by addressing shortcomings in the field collection of training data. Cons. Biol. 17 (2003) 1601-1611