A multi-scale framework for flood risk analysis at spatially distributed locations

Journal of Flood Risk Management

Volumn 10, Issue 1, 2017, Pages 124-137

  Speight, L J ^a   Hall, J W ^b   Kilsby, C G ^a  

^a NEWCASTLE UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Coastal; dependence; flood risk; fluvial; multi scale; systems modelling

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; FLOOD DAMAGE; HAZARD MANAGEMENT; RISK ASSESSMENT; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; SPATIAL VARIATION; VULNERABILITY;

UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84942044919     PISSN: None     EISSN: 1753318X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12175     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Allsop W., Kortenhaus A. & Morris M. Failure mechanisms for flood defence structures. FLOODsite, Report Number: T04-06-01, 2007.
2. Apel H., Merz B. & Thieken A.H. Influence of dike breaches on flood frequency estimation. Comput Geosci 2009, 35, (5), 907–923.
3. Apel H., Thieken A.H., Merz B. & Bloschl G. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty. Nat Hazard Earth Sys Science 2004, 4, 295–308.
4. Apel H., Thieken A.H., Merz B. & Bloschl G. A probabilistic modelling system for assessing flood risks. Nat Hazards 2006, 38, 79–100.
5. Buijs F.A., Hall J.W., Sayers P.B. & Van Gelder P.H.A.J.M. Time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defences. Reliab Eng Syst Safe 2009, 94, (12), 1942–1953.
6. CEH. Flood estimation handbook. Wallingford: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, 1999.
7. CH2MHILL. ISIS 1D, 2015. Available https://www.floodmodeller.com/global/products/legacy/legacy-software/2/isis-1d/ (accessed 29 May 2015).
8. Coles S. & Tawn J. Bayesian modelling of extreme surges on the UK east coast. Philos T R Soc A 2005, 363, (1831), 1387–1406.
9. Dawson R., Hall J., Sayers P., Bates P. & Rosu C. Sampling-based flood risk analysis for fluvial dike systems. Stoch Env Res Risk A 2005, 19, (6), 388–402.
10. Dawson R.J., Speight L., Hall J.W., Djordjevic S., Savic D. & Leandro J. Attribution of flood risk in urban areas. J Hydroinform 2008, 10, (4), 275–288.
11. De Moel H., Van Alphen J. & Aerts J. Flood maps in Europe – methods availability and use. Nat Hazard Earth Sys 2009, 9, 289–301.
12. Dixon M.J. & Tawn J. Estimates of extreme sea conditions. Final Report: Spatial analyses for the UK Coast, Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Internal Document 112, 1997.
13. Environment Agency. Flood map for planning [online], 2014. Available at http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/wiyby/37837.aspx (accessed 1 November 2014).
14. European Parliament Council. Directive 2009/138/EC on the taking-up and pursuit of the business of insurance and reinsurance (Solvency II), 2009.
15. Glenis V., McGough A., Kutija V., Kilsby C. & Woodman S. Flood modelling for cities using cloud computing. Journal of Cloud Computing: Advances Systems and Applications 2013, 2, (7), 1–14.
16. Gouldby B., Méndez F.J., Guanche Y., Rueda A. & Mínguez R. A methodology for deriving extreme nearshore sea conditions for structural design and flood risk analysis. Coast Eng 2014, 88, 15–26.
17. Gouldby B., Sayers P., Mulet-Marti J., Hassab M. & Benwell D. A methodology for regional-scale flood risk assessment. P I Civil Eng-wat M 2008, 161, (3), 169–182.
18. Grossi P. & Kunreuther H., eds. Catastrophe modelling: a new approach to managing risk. Huebner International Series on Risk, Insurance, and Economic Security. New York: Springer Science Business Media, Inc, 2005.
19. Gusman P. Are insurers too reliant on Cat Models? National Underwriter: Property and Casualty, April 28, 2008, p. 7.
20. Hawkes P.J., Gouldby B.R., Tawn J.A. & Owen M.W. The joint probability of waves and water levels in coastal engineering design. J Hydraul Res 2002, 40, (3), 241–251.
21. Hall J.W., Dawson R., Sayers P., Rosc C., Chatterton J. & Deakin R. A methodology for national-scale flood risk assessment. P I Civil Eng-wat M 2003, 156, 235–247.
22. Hall J.W., Manning L.J. & Hankin R.K.S. Bayesian calibration of a flood inundation model using spatial data. Water Resour Res 2011, 47, (5), W05529, doi:10.1029/2009WR008541.
23. Heffernan J.E. & Tawn J.A. A conditional approach for multivariate extreme values. J Roy Stat Soc B 2004, 66, 497–530.
24. Keef C., Lamb R., Tawn J., Dunning P., Batstone C. & Lawless M. (2011). Spatial coherence of flood risk – technical methodology report. Environment Agency, Science Report – SC060088/R1.
25. Keef C., Svensson C. & Tawn J. Spatial dependence in extreme river flows and precipitation for Great Britain. J Hydrol 2009a, 378, 240–252.
26. Keef C., Tawn J. & Svensson C. Spatial risk assessment for extreme river flows. J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat 2009b, 58, (5), 601–618.
27. Keef C., Tawn J. & Lamb R. Estimating the probability of widespread flood events. Environmetrics 2013, 24, (1), 13–21.
28. Lamb R., Crossley M. & Waller S. A fast two-dimensional floodplain inundation model. P I Civil Eng-wat M 2009, 162, (6), 363–370.
29. Lamb R., Keef C., Tawn T., Laeger S., Meadowcroft I., Surrendran S., Dunning P. & Batstone C. A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts. Journal of Flood Risk Management 2010, 3, (4), 323–336.
30. Liang Q.H. Flood simulation using a well-balanced shallow flow model. J Hydraul Eng-ASCE 2010, 136, (9), 669–675.
31. Lloyd's. Cat models cannot replace common sense, 2006. Available at https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/news-and-features/archive/2006/05/cat_models_cannot_replace_common_sense (accessed 29 May 2015).
32. Merz B., Kreibich H., Schwarze R. & Thieken A. Review article ‘Assessment of economic flood damage. Nat Hazard Earth Sys 2010, 10, (8), 1697–1724.
33. Merz B., Kreibich H., Thieken A.H. & Schmidtke R. Estimation uncertainty of direct monetary flood damage to buildings. Nat Hazard Earth Sys 2004, 4, (1), 153–163.
34. Merz B. & Thieken A.H. Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds. Nat Hazards 2009, 51, (3), 437–458.
35. Morris M., Hassan M., Kortenhaus A. & Visser P. Breaching processes: a state of the art review. FLOODsite, Report Number: T06-06-03, 2009a.
36. Morris M., Kortenhaus A. & Visser P. Modelling breach initiation and growth. FLOODsite, Report Number: TO6-08-02, 2009b.
37. Muir-Wood R. & Bateman W. Uncertainties and constraints on breaching and their implications for flood loss estimation. Philos T R Soc A 2005, 363, 1423–1430.
38. Neal J., Fewtrell T., Bates P. & Wright N. A comparison of three parallelisation methods for 2D flood inundation models. Environ Modell Softw 2010, 25, (4), 398–411.
39. Netherlands Ministry of Public Works, IHE-Delft et al. CRESS – coastal and river engineering support system, 2010.
40. Oasis. Loss modelling framework [online], 2014. Available at https://connect.innovateuk.org/web/oasis-open-access-catastrophe-model/overview (accessed 1 November 2014).
41. Penning-Rowsell E., Johnson C., Tunstall S., Tapsell S., Morris J., Chatterton J. & Green C. The benefits of flood and coastal risk management: a handbook of assessment techniques. Abingdon: Middlesex University Press, 2005.
42. Penning-Rowsell E., Priest S., Parker D., Morris J., Turnstall S., Viavattene C., Chatterton J. & Owen D. Flood and coastal erosion management: a manual for economic appraisal. Abingdon: Routledge, 2013.
43. Pitt M. The Pitt review – learning lessons from the 2007 floods. London: Cabinet Office, 2008.
44. Sangal B.P. Practical methods of estimating peak flow. J Hydraul Eng-ASCE 1983, 109, (4), 549–563.
45. Speight L. A multi-site methodology for understanding dependencies in flood risk exposure in the UK. PhD Thesis, Newcastle University, 2013.
46. Svensson C. & Jones D.A. Dependence between extreme sea surge, river flow and precipitation in eastern Britain. Int J Climatol 2002, 22, (10), 1149–1168.
47. Svensson C. & Jones D.A. Dependence between sea surge, river flow and precipitation in south and west Britain. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 2004, 8, (5), 973–992.
48. Vorogushyn S., Merz B. & Apel H. Development of dike fragility curves for piping and micro-instability breach mechanisms. Nat Hazard Earth Sys 2009, 9, (4), 1383–1401.
49. Vorogushyn S., Merz B., Lindenschmidt K.-E. & Apel H. A new methodology for flood hazard assessment considering dike breaches. Water Resour Res 2010, 46, W08541, doi:10.1029/2009WR008475.
50. Wyncoll D. & Gouldby B. Integrating a multivariate extreme value method within a system flood risk analysis model. Journal of Flood Risk Management 2013, doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12069.