Understanding land surface response to changing South Asian monsoon in a warming climate

Earth System Dynamics

Volumn 6, Issue 2, 2015, Pages 569-582

  Ramarao, M V S ^a   Krishnan, R ^a   Sanjay, J ^a   Sabin, T P ^a  

^a INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY   (India)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS; CLIMATE MODELS; MOISTURE; SOIL MOISTURE; SOILS; SURFACE MEASUREMENT; SURFACE PROPERTIES;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECTS; ANTHROPOGENIC FORCING; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; LONG TERM SIMULATION; MONSOON PRECIPITATION; SURFACE TEMPERATURES;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; GLOBAL WARMING; HUMAN ACTIVITY; LAND SURFACE; MONSOON; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RAINFALL;

EID: 84941356782     PISSN: 21904979     EISSN: 21904987     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/esd-6-569-2015     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Abish, B., Joseph, P. V., and Johannessen, O. M.: Weakening trend of the tropical easterly jet stream of the boreal summer monsoon season 1950-2009, J. Clim., 26, 9408-9414, doi:10.1175/JCLID- 13-00440.1, 2013.
2. Bindoff, N.L., Stott, P., AchutaRao, K., Allen, M., Gillett, N., Gutzler, D., Hansingo, K., Hegerl, G., Hu, Y., Jain, S., Mokhov, I., Overland, J., Perlwitz, J., Sebbari, R., and Zhang, X.: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 867- 952, 2013.
3. Bollasina, M. A., Ming, Y., and Ramaswamy, V.: Anthropogenic Aerosols and the Weakening of the South Asian Summer Monsoon, Science., 334, 502-505, doi:10.1126/science.1204994, 2011.
4. Chaturvedi, R. K., Joshi, J., Jayaraman, M., Bala, G., and Ravindranath, N. H.: Multi-model climate change projections for India under representative concentration pathways, Curr. Sci., 103, 791-802, 2012.
5. Chung, C. E. and Ramanathan, V.: Weakening of north Indian SST gradients and the monsoon rainfall in India and the Sahel, J. Clim., 19, 2036-2045, doi:10.1175/JCLI3820.1, 2006.
6. Collins, M., AchutaRao, K., Ashok, K., Bhandari, S., Mitra, A. K., Prakash, S., Srivasatva, R., and Turner, A.: Observational challenges in evaluating climate models, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 940- 941, doi:10.1038/nclimate2012, 2013.
7. Dee, D. P. and Uppala, S.: Variational bias correction of satellite radiance data in the ERA-Interim reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1830-1841, doi:10.1002/qj.493, 2009.
8. Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hlm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kllberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553-597. doi:10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
9. Delworth, T. L. and Manabe, S.: The influence of potential evaporation on the variabilities of simulated soil wetness and climate, J. Clim., 1, 523-547, 1988.
10. Delworth, T. L. and Manabe, S.: The Influence of soil wetness on near-surface atmospheric variability, J. Clim., 2, 1447-1462, 1989.
11. De Rosnay, P. and Polcher, J.: Modelling root water uptake in a complex land surface scheme coupled to a GCM, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 2, 239-255, doi:10.5194/hess-2-239-1998, 1998.
12. Ducoudré, N. I., Laval, K. and Perrier, A.: SECHIBA, a New Set of Parameterizations of the Hydrologic Exchanges at the Land-Atmosphere Interface within the LMD Atmospheric General Circulation Model, J. Clim., 6, 248-273, doi:10.1175/1520- 0442(1993)006<0248:SANSOP>CO;2, 1993.
13. Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., de Noblet, N., Duvel, J.-P., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L., Fichefet, T., Flavoni, S., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A., Lefebvre, M.-P., Lefevre, F., Levy, C., Li, Z. X., Lloyd, J., Lott, F., Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schulz, M., Swingedouw, D., Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123-2165, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1, 2013.
14. Douville, H., Royer, J.-F., Polcher, J., Cox, P., Gedney, N., Stephenson, D. B,. and Valdes, P. J.: Impact of doubling CO2 on the Asian summer monsoon: robust versus model-dependent responses, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 78, 421-439, 2000.
15. Fan, F., Mann, M. E., Lee, S., and Evans, J. L.: Observed and modeled changes in the South Asian summer monsoon over the historical period, J. Clim., 23, 5193-5205, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3374.1, 2010.
16. Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S.C., Collins, W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason C., and Rummukainen, M.: Evaluation of Climate Models, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 741- 866, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.020, 2013.
17. Guhathakurta, P., Rajeevan, M.: Trends in the rainfall pattern over India, National climate Centre (NCC) Research Report No. 2, 1-23, India. Meteor. Department, Pune, 2006.
18. Harris, I., Jones. P. D., Osborn, T. J., and Lister, D. H.: Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 623-642, doi:10.1002/joc.3711, 2014.
19. Hasson, S., Lucarini, V., and Pascale, S.: Hydrological cycle over South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 199-217, doi:10.5194/esd-4-199-2013, 2013.
20. Hourdin, F., Musat, I., Bony, S., Braconnot, P., Codron, F., Dufresne, J. L., Fairhead, L., Filiberti, M. A., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J. Y., Krinner, G., LeVan, P., Li, Z. X., and Lott, F.: The LMDZ4 general circulation model: Climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection, Clim. Dynam., 27, 787-813, doi:10.1007/s00382- 006-0158-0, 2006.
21. Huntington, T. G.: Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis, J. Hydrol., 319, 83-95, 2006.
22. Hurtt, G., Chini, L., Frolking, S., Betts, R., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., Fisk, J., Hibbard, K., Houghton, R., Janetos, A., Jones, C., Kindermann, G., Kinoshita, T., Klein Goldewijk, K., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Thomson, A., Thornton, P., van Vuuren, D., and Wang, Y.: Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500-2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. Climatic Change, 109, 117-161, doi:10.1007/s10584-011- 0153-2, 2011.
23. Jourdain, N. C., Gupta, A. Sen, Taschetto, A. S., Ummenhofer, C. C., Moise, A. F., and Ashok, K.: The Indo-Australian monsoon and its relationship to ENSO and IOD in reanalysis data and the CMIP3/CMIP5 simulations, Clim. Dynam., 41, 3073-3102, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1676-1, 2013.
24. Jung, M., Reichstein, M., Ciais, P., Seneviratne, S. I., Sheffield, J., Goulden, M. L., Bonan, G., Cescatti, A., Chen, J., de Jeu, R., Dolman, J., Eugster, W., Gerten, D., Gianelle, D., Gobron, N., Heinke, J., Kimball, J., Law, B. E., Montagnani, L., Mu, Q., Mueller, B., Oleson, K., Papale, D., Richardson, A. D., Roupsard, O., Running, S., Tomelleri, E., Viovy, N., Weber, U., Williams, C., Wood, E., Zaehle, S., and Zhang, K.: Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply, Nature, 467, 951-954, doi:10.1038/nature09396, 2010.
25. Kim, J., Sanjay, J., Mattmann, C., Boustani, M., Ramarao, M. V. S., Krishnan, R., and Waliser, D.: Uncertainties in estimating spatial and interannual variations in precipitation climatology in the India-Tibet region from multiple gridded precipitation datasets, Int. J. Climatol., doi:10.1002/joc.4306, 2015.
26. Kitoh, A., Yukimoto, S., Noda, A., and Motoi, T.:Simulated changes in the Asian summer monsoon at times of increased atmospheric CO2, J. Meteor. Soc. Jpn., 75, 1019-1031, 1997.
27. Krinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ogée, J., Polcher, J., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., and Prentice, C.: A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB1015, doi:10.1029/2003GB002199, 2005.
28. Krishnan, R., Sabin, T. P., Ayantika, D. C., Kitoh, A., Sugi, M., Murakami, H., Turner, A. G., Slingo, J. M., and Rajendran, K.: Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?, Clim. Dynam., 40, 187-211, doi:10.1007/s00382- 012-1317-0, 2013.
29. Kumar, K. N., Rajeevan, M., Pai, D. S., Srivastava, A. K., and Preethi, B.: On the observed variability of monsoon droughts over India, Weather Clim. Extrem., 1, 42-50, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2013.07.006, 2013.
30. Loveland, T. R., Reed, B. C., Brown, J. F., Ohlen, D. O., Zhu, Z., Yang, L., and Merchant, J. W.: Development of a global land cover characteristics database and IGBP DISCover from 1 km AVHRR data, Int. J. Remote. Sens., 21, 1303-1330, doi:10.1080/014311600210191, 2000.
31. Maraun, D.: Nonstationarities of regional climate model biases in European seasonal mean temperature and precipitation sums, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06706, doi:10.1029/2012GL051210, 2012.
32. Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K. V., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, J. F., Lamarque, M., K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., Thomson, A.M., Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, D.: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2300, Clim. Change, 109, 213-241, doi:10.1007/s10584- 011-0156-z, 2011.
33. Padmakumari, B., Jaswal, A. K., and Goswami, B. N.: Decrease in evaporation over the Indian monsoon region: Implication on regional hydrological cycle, Clim. Change, 121, 787-799, doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0957-3, 2013.
34. Pai, D. S., Sridhar Latha, Rajeevan, M., Sreejith, O. P., Satbhai, N. S., and Mukhopadhyay, B.: Development of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) long period (1901-2010) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data sets over the region, Mausam, 65, 1-18, 2014.
35. Rajendran, K., Kitoh, A., Srinivasan, J., Mizuta, R., and Krishnan, R.: Monsoon circulation interaction with Western Ghats orography under changing climate projection by a 20-km mesh AGCM, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 110, 555-571, doi:10.1007/s00704-012- 0690-2, 2012.
36. Rodell, M., Houser, P. R., Jambor, U., Gottschalck, J., Mitchell, K., Meng, C.-J., Arsenault, K., Cosgrove, B., Radakovich, J., Bosilovich, M., Entin, J. K., Walker, J. P., Lohmann, D., and Toll, D.: The Global Land Data Assimilation System, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85, 381-394, 2004.
37. Sabin, T. P., Krishnan, R., Ghattas, J., Denvil, S., Dufresne, J. L., Hourdin, F., and Pascal, T.: High resolution simulation of the South Asian monsoon using a variable resolution global climate model, Clim. Dynam., 41, 173-194, doi:10.1007/s00382-012- 1658-8, 2013.
38. Saha, A., Ghosh, S., Sahana, A. S., and Rao, E. P.: Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7323-7330, doi:10.1002/2014GL061573, 2014.
39. Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B., Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review, Earth-Science Rev., 99, 125-161, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004, 2010.
40. Seneviratne, S. I., Lüthi, D., Litschi, M., and Schär, C.: Landatmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe, Nature, 443, 205-209, doi:10.1038/nature05095, 2006.
41. Seneviratne, S. I., Pal, J. S., Eltahir, E. A. B., and Schär, C.: Summer dryness in a warmer climate: A process study with a regional climate model, Clim. Dyn., 20, 69-85, doi:10.1007/s00382-002- 0258-4, 2002.
42. Singh, D., Tsiang, M., Rajaratnam, B., and Diffenbaugh, N. S.: Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian summer monsoon season, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 1-6, doi:10.1038/nclimate2208, 2014.
43. Szopa, S., Balkanski, Y., Schulz, M., Bekki, S., Cugnet, D., Fortems-Cheiney, A., Turquety, S., Cozic, A., Deandreis, C., Hauglustaine, D., Idelkadi, A., Lathiere, J., Marchand, M., Yan, N., and Dufresne, J. L.: Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2223-2250, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1408-y, 2013.
44. Tanaka, H. L., Ishizaki, N., and Kitoh, A.: Trend and interannual variability of Walker, monsoon and Hadley circulations defined by velocity potential in the upper troposphere, Tellus, 56A, 250-269, 2004.
45. Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram, J. Geol. Res., 106, 7183-7192, doi:10.1029/2000JD900719, 2001.
46. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
47. Teuling, A. J., Hirschi, M., Ohmura, A., Wild, M., Reichstein, M., Ciais, P., Buchmann, N., Ammann, C., Montagnani, L., Richardson, A. D., Wohlfahrt, G., and Seneviratne, S. I.: A regional perspective on trends in continental evaporation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 1-5, doi:10.1029/2008GL036584, 2009.
48. Ueda, H., Iwai, A., Kuwako, K., and Hori, M. E.: Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by eight GCMs, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06703, doi:10.1029/2005GL025336, 2006.
49. Veechi, G. A., Soden, B. J., Wittenberg, A. T., Held, I. M., Leetma, A., and Harrison, M. J.: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing, Nature, 441, 73-76, 2006.
50. Wetherald, R. T. and Manabe, S.: Detectability of summer dryness caused by greenhouse warming, Clim. Change, 43, 495-511, 1999.
51. Xie, P. and Arkin, P. A.: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs, B. Am. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2539-2558, 1997.
52. Yatagai, A., Kamiguchi, K., Arakawa, O., Hamada, A., Yasutomi, N., and Kitoh, A.: APHRODITE: Constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges, B. Am. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1401-1415, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00122.1, 2012.