Observed and modeled changes in the South Asian summer monsoon over the historical period

Journal of Climate

Volumn 23, Issue 19, 2010, Pages 5193-5205

  Fan, Fangxing ^a   Mann, Michael E ^a   Lee, Sukyoung ^a   Evans, Jenni L ^a  

^a PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC FORCING; ASIAN SUMMER MONSOONS; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; HISTORICAL PERIODS; MULTI-MODEL; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; REANALYSIS;

ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS;

COMPUTER SIMULATION;

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; MONSOON; OBSERVATIONAL METHOD; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SIMULATION; SUMMER;

EID: 77958105425     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3374.1     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. AchutaRao, K., and K.R. Sperber, 2002: Simulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation: Results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate Dyn., 19, 191-209.
2. AchutaRao, K., and K.R. Sperber, 2006: ENSO simulation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: Are the current models better? Climate Dyn., 27, 1-15.
3. Annamalai, H., K. Hamilton, and K.R. Sperber, 2007: The South Asian Monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations. J. Climate, 20, 1071-1092.
4. Ashrit, R.G., K. Rupa Kumar, and K. Krishna Kumar, 2001: ENSO-monsoon relationship in a greenhouse warming scenario. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1727-1730.
5. Ashrit, R.G., H. Douville, and K. Rupa Kumar, 2003: Response of the Indian monsoon and ENSO-monsoon teleconnection to enhanced greenhouse effect in the CNRM coupled model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 81, 799-803.
6. Ashrit, R.G., A.Kitoh, and S. Yukimoto, 2005: Transient response of ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in MRI-CGCM2.2 climate change simulations. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 83, 273-291.
7. Bengtsson, L., K.I. Hodges, and E. Roeckner, 2006: Storm tracks and climate change. J. Climate, 19, 3518-3543.
8. Blanford, H.F., 1886: The rainfall of India. Indian Meteor. Mem., 3, 1-269.
9. Chan, S.C., and J.L. Evans, 2002: Comparison of the structure of the ITCZ in the west Pacific during the boreal summers of 1989-93 using AMIP simulations and ECMWF reanalysis. J. Climate, 15, 3549-3568.
10. Ding, Y.H., C.Y. Li, and Y.J. Liu, 2004: Overview of the South China Seas monsoon experiment. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 21, 343-360.
11. Douville, H., and Coauthors, 2000: Impact of CO2 doubling on the Asian summer monsoon: Robust versus model-dependent responses. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 78, 421-439.
12. Fan, F., M.E. Mann, and C.M. Ammann, 2009: Understanding changes in the Asian summer monsoon over the past millennium: Insights from a long-term model simulation. J. Climate, 22, 1736-1748.
13. Gershunov, A., N. Schneider, and T. Barnett, 2001: Low-frequency modulation of the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship: Signal or noise? J. Climate, 14, 2486-2492.
14. Goswami, B.N., V. Krishnamurthy, and H. Annamalai, 1999: A broad-scale circulation index for the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 611-633.
15. Grove, R.H., 1998: Global impact of the 1789-93 El Niño. Nature, 393, 318-319.
16. Halley, E., 1686: An historical account for the trade winds, and monsoons, observable in the seas between the Tropics, with an attempt to assign the physical cause of the said winds. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, 16, 153-168.
17. Holton, J.R., 1992: An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. 3rd ed. Academic Press, 511 pp.
18. Hu, Z.Z., M. Latif, E. Roeckner, and L.Bengtsson, 2000: Intensified Asian summer monsoon and its variability in a coupled model forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2681-2684.
19. Hurrell, J.W., and K.E. Trenberth, 1998: Difficulties in obtaining reliable temperature trends: Reconciling the surface and satellite microwave sounding unit records. J. Climate, 11, 945-967.
20. Joseph, P.V., and P.L. Raman, 1966: Existence of low level westerly jet stream over peninsular India during July. Ind. J. Meteor. Geophys., 17, 407-410.
21. Joseph, R., and S. Nigam, 2006: ENSO evolution and teleconnection in IPCC's twentieth-century climate simulation: Realistic representation? J. Climate, 19, 4360-4377.
22. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
23. 2. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 75, 1019-1031.
24. Koteswaram, P., 1958: Easterly jet stream in the tropic. Tellus, 10, 43-57.
25. Kripalani, R.H., and A. Kulkarni, 1997: Climatic impact of El Niño/La Niña on the Indian monsoon: A new perspective. Weather, 52, 39-46.
26. Kripalani, R.H., and A. Kulkarni, and S.S. Sabade, 2001: El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Eurasian snow cover and the Indian monsoon rainfall. Proc. Ind. Natl. Sci. Acad., 67A, 361-368.
27. Kripalani, R.H., and, etal, 2003: Indian monsoon variability in a global warming scenario. Nat. Hazards, 29, 189-206.
28. Krishna Kumar, K., B. Rajagopalan, and M.A. Cane, 1999: On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science, 284, 2156-2159.
29. Krishna Kumar, K., B. Rajagopalan, M. Hoerling, G. Bates, and M.A. Cane, 2006: Unraveling the mystery of monsoon failure during El Niño. Science, 314, 115-119.
30. Latif, M., A. Sterl, M. Assenbaum, M.M. Junge, and E. Maier-Reimer, 1994: Climate variability in a coupled GCM. Part II: The India Ocean and monsoon. J. Climate, 7, 1449-1462.
31. May, W., 2002: Simulated changes of the Indian summer monsoon under enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations in a global time-slice experiment.Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1118, doi:10.1029/2001GL013808.
32. May, W., 2004: Potential future changes in the Indian summer monsoon due to greenhouse warming: Analysis of mechanisms in a global time-slice experiment. Climate Dyn., 22, 389-414.
33. Meehl, G.A., and W.M. Washington, 1993: South Asian summer monsoon variability in a model with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Science, 260, 1101-1104.
34. Meehl, G.A., and J.M. Arblaster, 2003: Mechanisms for projected future changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation. Climate Dyn., 21, 659-675.
35. 2 and direct and indirect effects of sulfate aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 3755-3758.
36. Meehl, G.A., and Coauthors, 2007: Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 747-845.
37. Mehta, V.M., and K.-M. Lau, 1997: Influence of solar irradiance on the Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship at decadal-multidecadal time scales. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 159-162.
38. Menon, S., J. Hansen, L. Nazarenko, and Y. Luo, 2002: Climate effects of black carbon aerosols in China and India. Science, 297, 2250-2253.
39. Mitchell, J.F.B., and T.C. Johns, 1997: On modification of global warming by sulfate aerosols. J. Climate, 10, 245-267.
40. Nigam, S., 1994: On the dynamical basis for the Asian summer monsoon rainfall-El Niño relationship. J. Climate, 7, 1750-1770.
41. Parthasarathy, B., R.R. Kumar, and D.R. Kothawale, 1992: Indian summer monsoon rainfall indices, 1871-1990. Meteor. Mag., 121, 174-186.
42. Parthasarathy, B., A.A. Munot, and D.R. Kothawale, 1994: All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871-1993. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 49, 217-224.
43. Ramanathan, V., and G. Carmichael, 2008: Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon. Nat. Geosci., 1, 221-227.
44. Ramanathan, V., and Coauthors, 2005: Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate the hydrological cycle. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 102, 5326-5333.
45. Rasmusson, E.M., and T.H. Carpenter, 1983: The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 517-528.
46. Ropelewski, C.F., and M.S. Halpert, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1606-1626.
47. Ropelewski, C.F., and M.S. Halpert, 1989: Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 268-284.
48. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M.M.B. Tignor, H.L. Miller Jr., and Z. Chen, Eds., 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Sciences Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.
49. Wang, B., 2006: The Asian Monsoon. Springer, 787 pp.
50. Webster, P.J., and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118, 877-926.
51. Webster, P.J., V.O.Magana, T.N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R.A. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T.Yasunari, 1998:Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 451-14 510.