Evaluation of deterministic state-of-the-art forecasting approaches for project duration based on earned value management

International Journal of Project Management

Volumn 33, Issue 7, 2015, Pages 1588-1596

  Batselier, Jordy ^a   Vanhoucke, Mario ^a,b,c  

^a GHENT UNIVERSITY   (Belgium)

^b VLERICK BUSINESS SCHOOL   (Belgium)

^c UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Earned duration management; Earned value management; Empirical database; Project control; Project management; Rework; Sensitivity measures; Time forecasting

Indexed keywords

BUDGET CONTROL; DATABASE SYSTEMS; FORECASTING; MANAGEMENT SCIENCE; PROJECT MANAGEMENT;

ACTIVITY SENSITIVITIES; DETERMINISTIC TECHNIQUE; EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT; PROJECT CONTROL; REWORK; SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE; SENSITIVITY MEASURES; STATE-OF-THE-ART APPROACH;

VALUE ENGINEERING;

FORECASTING METHOD; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; PROJECT MANAGEMENT; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84940437483     PISSN: 02637863     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.04.003     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Anbari F. Earned value project management method and extensions. Proj. Manag. J. 2003, 34:12-23.
2. Barraza G., Back E., Mata F. Probabilistic forecasting of project performance using stochastic S curves. J. Constr. Eng. Manag. 2004, 130:25-32.
3. Batselier J., Vanhoucke M. Construction and evaluation framework for a real-life project database. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 2015, 33:697-710.
4. Batselier J., Vanhoucke M. Empirical evaluation of earned value management forecasting accuracy for time and cost. J. Constr. Eng. Manag. 2015, 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001008.
5. Cheng M.Y., Peng H.S., Wu Y.W., Chen T.L. Estimate at completion for construction projects using evolutionary support vector machine inference model. Autom. Constr. 2010, 19:619-629.
6. Covach J., Haydon J., Reither R. A Study to Determine Indicators and Methods to Compute Estimate at Completion (EAC) 1981, ManTech International Corporation, Virginia.
7. Demeulemeester E., Vanhoucke M., Herroelen W. RanGen: a random network generator for activity-on-the-node networks. J. Sched. 2003, 6:17-38.
8. Elshaer R. Impact of sensitivity information on the prediction of project's duration using earned schedule method. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 2013, 31:579-588.
9. Fleming Q., Koppelman J. Earned Value Project Management 2010, Project Management Institute, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. fourth ed.
10. Jacob D., Kane M. Forecasting schedule completion using earned value metrics? Revisited. The Measurable News Summer 2004, 1:11-17.
11. Khamooshi H., Golafshani H. EDM: Earned Duration Management, a new approach to schedule performance management and measurement. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 2014, 32:1019-1041.
12. Kim B.C., Kim H.J. Sensitivity of earned value schedule forecasting to S-curve patterns. J. Constr. Eng. Manag. 2014, 140:04014023.
13. Lipke W. Schedule is different. The Measurable News Summer 2003, 31-34.
14. Lipke W. Connecting earned value to the schedule. The Measurable News Winter 2004, 1:6-16.
15. Lipke W. Schedule adherence and rework. PM World Today 2011, 13:1-14.
16. Lipke W., Zwikael O., Henderson K., Anbari F. Prediction of project outcome: the application of statistical methods to earned value management and earned schedule performance indexes. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 2009, 27:400-407.
17. Naeni L., Shadrokh S., Salehipour A. A fuzzy approach to earned value management. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 2011, 29:764-772.
18. OR-AS Online consultation of the real-life project database and the corresponding project cards (continuously updated) URL:. http://www.or-as.be/research/database.
19. Pewdum W., Rujirayanyong T., Sooksatra V. Forecasting final budget and duration of highway construction projects. Eng. Constr. Archit. Manag. 2009, 16:544-557.
20. PMI A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide) 2008, Project Management Institute, Newtown Square, PA. 3rd Edition.
21. Rujirayanyong T. A comparison of three completion date predicting methods for construction projects. J. Res. Eng. Technol. 2009, 6:305-318.
22. Teicholz P. Forecasting final cost and budget of construction projects. J. Comput. Civ. Eng. 1993, 7:511-529.
23. Vandevoorde S., Vanhoucke M. A comparison of different project duration forecasting methods using earned value metrics. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 2006, 24:289-302.
24. Vanhoucke M. Measuring time - improving project performance using earned value management. International Series in Operations Research and Management Science 2010, vol. 136. Springer.
25. Vanhoucke M. Using activity sensitivity and network topology information to monitor project time performance. OMEGA Int. J. Manag. Sci. 2010, 38:359-370.
26. Vanhoucke M. On the dynamic use of project performance and schedule risk information during project tracking. OMEGA Int. J. Manag. Sci. 2011, 39:416-426.
27. Vanhoucke M. Measuring the efficiency of project control using fictitious and empirical project data. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 2012, 30:252-263.
28. Vanhoucke M. The impact of project schedule adherence and rework on the duration forecast accuracy of earned value metrics. Project Management: Practices, Challenges and Developments 2013, 95-131. NOVA Publishers. E.C. Hoffmann (Ed.).
29. Vanhoucke M. Integrated project management and control: first comes the theory, then the practice. Management for Professionals 2014, Springer.
30. Vanhoucke M., Vandevoorde S. A simulation and evaluation of earned value metrics to forecast the project duration. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 2007, 58:1361-1374.
31. Vanhoucke M., Coelho J., Debels D., Maenhout B., Tavares L. An evaluation of the adequacy of project network generators with systematically sampled networks. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 2008, 187:511-524.
32. Wauters M., Vanhoucke M. Support vector machine regression for project control forecasting. Autom. Constr. 2014, 47:92-106.
33. Willems L., Vanhoucke M. Classification of articles and journals on project control and earned value management 2015, (under submission).