Space-time structure of extreme precipitation in Europe over the last century

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 35, Issue 8, 2015, Pages 1749-1760

  Cioffi, Francesco ^a   Lall, Upmanu ^b   Rus, Ester ^c   Krishnamurthy, Chandra Kiran B ^d  

^a SAPIENZA UNIVERSITY OF ROME   (Italy)

^b Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences   (United States)

^c THAMES WATER UTILITIES LTD   (United Kingdom)

^d UMEÅ UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Atmospheric teleconnections; Extreme precipitation; Frequency analysis; Hydrology

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; FREQUENCY DOMAIN ANALYSIS; HYDROLOGY; RAIN; TIME SERIES;

ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS; DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS; EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; FREQUENCY ANALYSIS; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONS; PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS; TIME AND FREQUENCY DOMAINS;

CLIMATOLOGY;

EID: 84939466366     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.4116     Document Type: Article

References (66)

1. Bell JL, Sloan LC, Snyder M. 2004. Regional changes in extreme climatic events: a future climate scenario. J. Clim. 17(1): 81-87, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017.
2. Bengtsson L, Hodges K, Keenlyside N. 2009. Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate? J. Clim. 22: 2276-2301, DOI: 10.1029/2011GL049599.
3. Brönnimann S. 2007. Impact of El Niño-southern oscillation on European climate. Rev. Geophys. 45(3): RG3003, DOI: 10.1029/2006RG000199.
4. Brönnimann S, Xoplaki E, Casty C, Pauling A, Luterbacher J. 2007. ENSO influence on Europe during the last centuries. Clim. Dyn. 28(2-3): 181-197, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-006-0175-z.
5. Christensen OB, Goodess CM, Ciscar J. 2012. Methodological framework of the PESETA project on the impacts of climate change in Europe. Clim. Change 112(1): 7-28, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0337-9.
6. Costa AC, Solares A. 2009. Trends in extreme precipitation indices derived from a daily rainfall database for the South of Portugal. Int. J. Climatol. 29: 1956-1975, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1834.
7. Cubasch U, Meehl GA, Boer GJ, Stouffer RJ, Dix M, Noda A, Senior CA, Raper S, Yap KS. 2001. Projections of future climate change. In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, Van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds). Cambridge University Press: New York, NY, 525-585.
8. Du H, Wu Z, Li M, Jin Y, Zong S, Meng X. 2013a. Characteristics of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperature over Northeast China: 1961-2009. J. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 111(1-2): 161-171, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-012-0649-3.
9. Du H, Wu Z, Zong S, Meng X, Wang L. 2013b. Assessing the characteristics of extreme precipitation over northeast China using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118: 6165-6174, DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50487.
10. Fraedrich K, Larnder C. 1993. Scaling regimes of composite rainfall time series. Tellus Ser. A: Dyn. Meteorol. Oceanogr. 45: 289-298.
11. Frei C, Schär C. 2001. Detection probability of trends in rare events: theory and application to heavy precipitation in the Alpine region. J. Clim. 14: 1568-1584, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-012-0649-3.
12. Frei C, Davies HC, Gurtz J, Schär C. 2000. Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe. Integr. Assess. 1(4): 281-300, DOI: 10.1023/A:1018983226334.
13. Frei C, Schöll R, Fukutome S, Schmidli J, Vidale PL. 2006. Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 111: D06105, DOI: 10.1029/2005JD005965.
14. Gong DY, Ho CH. 2004. Intra-seasonal variability of wintertime temperature over East Asia. Int. J. Climatol. 24(2): 131-144, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1006.
15. González Hidalgo JC, De Luís M, Raventós J, Sánchez JR. 2003. Daily rainfall trend in the Valencia Region of Spain. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 75: 117-130, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-002-0718-0.
16. Granger CWJ. 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37(3): 424-438.
17. Guzzetti F, Stark CP, Salvati P. 2005. Evaluation of flood and landslide risk to the population of Italy. Environ. Manage. 36(1): 15-36, DOI: 10.1007/s00267-003-0257-1.
18. Hajat S, Ebi KL, Kovats RS, Menne B, Edwards S, Haines A. 2005. The human health consequences of flooding in Europe: a review. In Extreme Weather Events and Public Health Responses. Springer-Verlag: Berlin and Heidelberg, Germany.
19. Haylock MR, Goodess CM. 2004. Interannual variability of European extreme winter rainfall and links with mean large-scale circulation. Int. J. Climatol. 24: 759-776, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1033.
20. Henderson KG, Muller RA. 1997. Extreme temperature days in the South-Central United States. Clim. Res. 8(2): 151-162, DOI: 10.3354/cr0008151.
21. Hennessy KJ, Gregory JM, Mitchell JFB. 1997. Changes in daily precipitation under enhanced greenhouse conditions. Clim. Dyn. 13: 667-680.
22. Hidalgo-Muñoz JM, Argüeso D, Gámiz-Fortis SR, Esteban-Parra MJ, Castro-Díez Y. 2011. Trends of extreme precipitation and associated synoptic patterns over the southern Iberian Peninsula. J. Hydrol. 409: 497-511, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.08.049.
23. Hipel KW, McLeod AI. 2005. Time Series Modelling of Water Resources and Environmental Systems. Electronic reprint of our book originally published in 1994, Retrieved July 14, 2014. http://www.stats.uwo.ca/faculty/aim/1994Book/.
24. Huang DQ, Qian YF, Zhu J. 2010. Trends of temperature extremes in China and their relationship with global temperature anomalies. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 27(4): 937-946, DOI: 10.1007/s00376-009-9085-4.
25. Jain S, Lall U, Mann M. 1999. Seasonality and interannual variations of Northern Hemisphere temperature: equator-to-pole gradient and ocean-land contrast. J. Clim. 12: 1086-1100.
26. Jones PD, Horton EB, Folland CK, Hulme M, Parker DE, Basnett TA. 1999. The use of indices to identify changes in climatic extremes. Clim. Change 42(1): 131-149, DOI: 10.1023/a:1005468316392.
27. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77: 437-471, DOI: 10.1175/1520, 0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
28. Kantelhardt JW, Zschiegner SA, Koscielny-Bunde E, Havlin S, Bunde A, Stanley HE. 2002. Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series. Physica A 316(1): 87-114, DOI: 10.1016/s0378-4371(02)01383-3.
29. Kaplan A, Cane M, Kushnir Y, Clement A, Blumenthal M, Rajagopalan B. 1998. Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991. J. Geophys. Res. 103(18): 567-589.
30. Karagiannidis AF, Karacostas T, Maheras P, Makrogiannis T. 2012. Climatological aspects of extreme precipitation in Europe, related to mid-latitude cyclonic systems. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 107: 165-174.
31. Karamperidou C, Cioffi F, Lall U. 2012. Surface temperature gradients as diagnostic indicators of midlatitude circulation dynamics. J. Clim. 25(12): 4154-4171, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00067.1.
32. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Hegerl GC. 2007. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J. Clim. 20(8): 1419-1444, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4066.1.
33. Klein Tank AMG, Können GP. 2003. Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in europe, 1946-99. J. Clim. 16: 3665-3680, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3665:TIIODT>2.0.CO;2.
34. Klein Tank AMG, Wijngaard JB, Können GP, Böhm R, Demarée G, Gocheva A, Mileta M, Pashiardis S, Hejkrlik L, Kern-Hansen C, Heino R, Bessemoulin P, Müller-Westermeier G, Tzanakou M, Szalai S, Pálsdóttir T, Fitzgerald D, Rubin S, Capaldo M, Maugeri M, Leitass A, Bukantis A, Aberfeld R, van Engelen AFV, Forland E, Mietus M, Coelho F, Mares C, Razuvaev V, Nieplova E, Cegnar T, Antonio LJ, Dahlström B, Moberg A, Kirchhofer W, Ceylan A, Pachaliuk O, Alexander LV, Petrovic P. 2002. Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. Int. J. Climatol. 22: 1441-1453, DOI: 10.1002/joc.
35. Klok EJ, Klein Tank AMG. 2009. Updated and extended European dataset of daily climate observations. J. Clim. 29: 1182-1191, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1779.
36. Knight JR, Folland CK, Scaife AA. 2006. Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33: L17706, DOI: 10.1029/2006GL026242.
37. Kothawale DR, Revadekar JV, Rupa Kumar K. 2010. Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India. J. Earth. Syst. Sci 119(1): 51-65, DOI: 10.1007/s12040-010-0008-7.
38. Krishnamurthy CKB, Lall U, Kwon HH. 2009. Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003. J. Clim. 22: 4737-4746, DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2896.1.
39. Kundzewicz ZW, Robson AJ. 2004. Change detection in hydrological records - a review of the methodology. Hydrol. Sci. J. 49(1): 7-19.
40. Kundzewicz ZW, Kanae S, Seneviratne SI, Handmer J, Nicholls N, Peduzzi P, Mechler R, Bouwer LM, Arnell N, Mach K, Muir-Wood R, Brakenridge GR, Kron W, Benito G, Honda Y, Takahashi K, Sherstyukov B. 2013. Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives. Hydrol. Sci. J. 59(1): 1-28, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2013.857411.
41. Lee SS, Lee JY, Wang B, Ha K, Heo K, Ha KJ, Jin F, Straus DM, Shukla J. 2011. Interdecadal changes in the storm track activity over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Clim. Dyn. 39: 313-327, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1188-9.
42. Lehner B, Döll P, Alcamo J, Henrichs T, Kaspar F. 2006. Estimating the impact if global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: a continental, integrated analysis. Clim. Change 75: 273-299, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-6338-4.
43. Li Z, Zheng FL, Liu WZ, Flanagan DC. 2010. Spatial distribution and temporal trends of extreme temperature and precipitation events on the Loess Plateau of China during 1961-2007. Quat. Int. 226(1-2): 92-100, DOI: 10.1016/j.quaint.2010.03.003.
44. Mann ME, Park J. 1999. Oscillatory spatiotemporal signal detection in climate studies: a multi-taper spectral domain approach. Adv. Geophys. 41: 1-131.
45. Marchi L, Borga M, Preciso E, Gaume E. 2010. Characterization of selected extreme flash floods in Europe and implications for flood risk Management. J. Geophys. Res. 391: 118-133, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.017.
46. Moberg A, Jones PD. 2005. Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe, 1901-99. Int. J. Climatol. 25: 1149-1171, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1163.
47. Mudelsee M, Börngen M, Tetzlaff G, Grünewald U. 2003. No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe. Nature 425: 166-169.
48. Mudelsee M, Börngen M, Tetzlaff G, Grünewald U. 2004. Extreme floods in central Europe over the past 500 years: role of cyclone pathway "Zugstrasse Vb". J. Geophys. Res. 109: D23101, DOI: 10.1029/2004JD005034.
49. Nastos PT, Zerefos CS. 2007. On extreme daily precipitation totals at Athens, Greece. Adv. Geosci. 10: 59-66.
50. New M, Todd M, Hulme M, Jones P. 2002. Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century. Int. J. Climatol. 21: 1889-1922, DOI: 10.1002/joc.680.
51. Önöz B, Bayazit M. 2012. Block bootstrap for Mann-Kendall trend test of serially dependent data. Hydrol. Processes 26: 3552-3560, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.8438.
52. Palmer TN, Rälsänen J. 2002. Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature 415: 512-514.
53. Pozo-Vazquez D, Gamiz-Fortis SR, Tovar-Pescador J, Esteban-Parra MJ, Castro-Deiz Y. 2005. El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and associated European winter precipitation anomalies. Int. J. Climatol. 25: 17-31, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1097.
54. Rajagopalan B, Mann ME, Lall U. 1998. A multivariate frequency-domain approach to long-lead climatic forecasting. Weather Forecast. 13(1): 58-74.
55. Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W. 2002. An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Clim. 15: 1609-1625.
56. Rodríguez-Puebla C, Encinas AH, Sáenz J. 2001. Winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and its relationship to circulation indices. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 5(2): 233-244.
57. Sen PK. 1968. Estimates of regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1: 1379-1389.
58. Sevruk B. 1997. Regional dependency of precipitation-altitude relationship in the Swiss Alps. Clim. Change 36: 355-569.
59. Thomson DJ. 1982. Spectrum estimation and harmonic analysis. Proc. IEEE 70: 1055-1096.
60. Wijngaard JB, Klein Tank AMG, Können GP. 2003. Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series. Int. J. Climatol. 23: 679-692, DOI: 10.1002/joc.906.
61. Xu Y, Xu CH, Gao XJ, Luo Y. 2009. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin of China in the 21st century. Quat. Int. 208(1-2): 44-52, DOI: 10.1016/j.quaint.2008.12.020.
62. Xu X, Du YG, Tang JP, Wang Y. 2011. Variations of temperature and precipitation extremes in recent two decades over China. Atmos. Res. 101(1-2): 143-154, DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.02.003.
63. Yiou P, Nogaj M. 2004. Extreme climatic events and weather regimes over the North Atlantic: when and where? Geophys. Res. Lett. 31: L07202, DOI: 10.1029/2003GL019119.
64. 2 is doubled. J. Clim. 14: 1765-1779, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1765:SCITFO>2.0.CO;2.
65. Zolina O, Kapala A, Simmer C, Gulev SK. 2004. Analysis of extreme precipitation over Europe from different reanalyses: a comparative assessment. Glob. Planet. Sci. 44: 129-161, DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.009.
66. Zolina O, Simmer C, Brelyaev K, Gulev SK, Koltermann P. 2012. Changes in the duration of European wet and dry spells during the last 60 years. J. Clim. 26: 2022-2047, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00498.1.