Impact of potential climate change on crop yield and water footprint of rice in the Po valley of Italy

Agricultural Systems

Volumn 139, Issue , 2015, Pages 223-237

  Bocchiola, D ^a,b  

^a POLITECNICO DI MILANO   (Italy)

^b EVK2CNR Association of Italy ^*  (Italy)

Author keywords

Climate change; Crop models; Rice Oryza sativa L.; Water footprint

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT; AGRICULTURAL MODELING; CLIMATE CHANGE; CORRELATION; CROP PRODUCTION; CROP YIELD; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; FUTURE PROSPECT; GROWING SEASON; HARVESTING; IRRIGATION SYSTEM; RICE; WATER FOOTPRINT;

ITALY; PO VALLEY;

ORYZA SATIVA;

EID: 84939423756     PISSN: 0308521X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2015.07.009     Document Type: Article

References (78)

1. Adams R.M., Hurd B.H., Lenhart S., Leary N. Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretative review. Clim. Res. 1998, 11:19-30.
2. Addimando N., Nana E., Bocchiola D. Modelling pasture dynamics in a Mediterranean environment: a case study in Sardinia region, Italy. J. Irrig. Drain. Eng. 2014, 04014063. 10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000818.
3. Allan T. Fortunately There Are Substitutes for Water: Otherwise Our Hydropolitical Futures Would Be Impossible, Paper Presented at Conference on Priorities for Water Resources Allocation and Management 1993, Overseas Dev. Admin., London.
4. Bocchi S., Castrignanò A. Identification of different potential production areas for corn in Italy through multitemporal yield map analysis. Field Crop Res. 2007, 102(3):185-197.
5. Bocchiola D. Long term (1921-2011) hydrological regime of Alpine catchments in Northern Italy. Adv. Water Resour. 2014, 70:51-64.
6. Bocchiola D., Diolaiuti G., Soncini A., Mihalcea C., D'Agata C., Mayer C., Lambrecht A., Rosso R., Smiraglia C. Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 15:2059-2075.
7. Bocchiola D., Nana E., Soncini A. Impact of climate change scenarios on crop yield and water footprint of maize in the Po valley of Italy. Agric. Water Manag. 2013, 116:50-61.
8. Brouwer F.M. Determination of broad-scale land use changes by climate and soils. Working Paper WP-88-007 1988, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
9. Brunetti M., Maugeri M., Nanni T., Auer I., Böhm R., Schöner W. Precipitation variability and changes in the greater Alpine region over the 1800-2003 period. J. Geophys. Res. 2006, 111:D11107. 10.1029/2005JD006674.
10. Cabangon R.J., Tuong T.P., Castillo E.G., Bao L.X., Lu G., Wang G., Cui Y., Bouman B.A., Li Y., Chen C., Wang J. Effect of irrigation method and N-fertilizer management on rice yield, water productivity and nutrient-use efficiencies in typical lowland rice conditions in China. Paddy Water Environ. 2004, 2:195-206.
11. Campbell G.S. Transport models for soil-plant systems. Development in Soil Science 1985, 14. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
12. Chapagain A.K., Hoekstra A.Y. The green, blue and grey water footprint of rice from both a production and consumption perspective. UNESCO-IHE, Value of Water, Research Report Series No. 40 2010.
13. Chapagain A.K., Hoekstra A.Y. The blue, green and grey water footprint of rice from production and consumption perspectives. Ecol. Econ. 2011, 70(4):749-758.
14. Cho M.A., Skidmore A.C.F., van Wieren S.E., Sobhan I. Estimation of green grass/herb biomass from airborne hyperspectral imagery using spectral indices and partial least squares regression. Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 2007, 9:414-424.
15. Confalonieri R., Bechini L. A preliminary evaluation of the simulation model CropSyst for alfalfa. Eur. J. Agron. 2004, 21:223-237.
16. Confalonieri R., Bocchi S. Evaluation of CropSyst for simulating the yield of flooded rice in northern Italy. Eur. J. Agron. 2005, 23:315-326.
17. Confalonieri R., Mariani L., Bocchi S. Analysis and modelling of water and near water temperatures in flooded rice (Oryza sativa L.). Ecol. Model. 2005, 183:269-280.
18. Confalonieri R., Acutis M., Bellocchi G., Cerrani I., Tarantola S., Donatelli M., Genovese G. Exploratory sensitivity analysis of CropSyst, WARM and WOFOST: a case-study with rice biomass simulations. Ital. J. Agrometeorol. 2006, 3:17-25.
19. Confalonieri R., Acutis M., Gianni Bellocchi G., Donatelli M. Multi-metric evaluation of the models WARM, CropSyst and WOFOST for rice. Ecol. Model. 2009, 220(11):1395-1410.
20. Confalonieri R., Bregaglio S., Rosenmundc A.S., Acutis M., Savin I. A model for simulating the height of rice plants. Eur. J. Agron. 2011, 34:20-25.
21. Confortola G., Soncini A., Bocchiola D. Climate change will affect water resources in the Alps: a case study in Italy. J. Alp. Res. RGA/JAR 2013, 100-103. (http://rga.revues.org/2176).
22. Cure J.D., Acock B. Crop responses to carbon dioxide doubling: a literature survey. Agric. For. Meteorol. 1987, 38:127-145.
23. Donatelli M., Stockle C., Ceotto E., Rinaldi M. Evaluation of CropSyst for cropping systems at two locations of northern and southern Italy. Eur. J. Agron. 1997, 6:35-45.
24. Easterling W., Apps M. Assessing the consequences of climate change for food and forest resources: a view from the IPCC. Clim. Chang. 2005, 70(1-2):165-189.
25. Easterling W.E., et al. Food, fibre and forest products. In Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 273-313. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J.V.D. Linden, C.E. Hanson (Eds.).
26. Erda L., Wei X., Hui J., Yinlong J., Yue L., Liping B., Liyong X. Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 2005, 360:2149-2154.
27. Fader M., Gerten D., Thammer M., Lotze-Campen H., Lucht W., Cramer W. Internal and external green-blue agricultural water footprints of nations, and related water and land savings through trade. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 15:1641-1660.
28. Faggian P., Giorgi F. An analysis of global model projections over Italy, with particular attention to the Italian Greater Alpine Region (GAR). Clim. Chang. 2009, 10.1007/s10584-009-9584-4.
29. FAO Adapting to climate change. In Unasylva 2009, 60(231/232).
30. Fava F., Parolo G., Colombo R., Gusmeroli F., Della Marianna G., Monteiro A.T., Bocchi S. Fine-scale assessment of hay meadow productivity and plant diversity in the European Alps using field spectrometric data. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2010, 137(1-2):151-157.
31. Ferrero A. Challenges and opportunities for a sustainable rice production in Europe and Mediterranean area (Preface). Paddy Water Environ. 2006, 4(1):11-12.
32. Gent P.R., et al. The Community Climate System Model Version 4. J. Clim. 2011, 24:4973-4991.
33. Gornall J., Betts R., Burke E., Clark R., Camp J., Willett K., Wiltshire A. Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 2010, 365:2973-2989.
34. Groppelli B., Bocchiola D., Rosso R. Spatial downscaling of precipitation from GCMs for climate change projections using random cascades: a case study in Italy. Water Resour. Res. 2011, 47:W03519. 10.1029/2010WR009437.
35. Groppelli B., Soncini A., Bocchiola D., Rosso R. Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy. NHESS 2011, 11:1769-1785. 10.5194/nhess-11-1769-2011.
36. Virtual Water Trade: Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Delft, The Netherlands, 12-3 December 2002, Value of Water Research Report Series No. 12 2003, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, The Netherlands. A.Y. Hoekstra (Ed.).
37. Hoekstra A.Y. Virtual Water: An Introduction 2003, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, The Netherlands.
38. Hoekstra A.Y., Chapagain A.K. Globalization of Water: Sharing the Planet's Freshwater Resources 2008, Blackwell Publishing, Oxford, UK.
39. Hoekstra A.Y., Hung P. Globalisation of water resources: international virtual water flows in relation to crop trade. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2005, 15:45-56.
40. IPCC Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2013, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P.M. Midgley (Eds.).
41. Jarvis A.J., Mansfield T.A., Davies W.J. Stomatal behaviour, photosynthesis and transpiration under rising CO2. Plant Cell Environ. 1999, 22:639-648.
42. Leuning R. A critical appraisal of a combined stomatal photosynthesis model for C3 plants. Plants Cell Environ. 1995, 18:357-364.
43. Masutomi Y., Takahashi K., Harasawa H., Matsuoka Y. Impact assessment of climate change on rice production in Asia in comprehensive consideration of process/parameter uncertainty in general circulation models. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2009, 131:281-291.
44. Matthews R., Wassmann R. Modelling the impacts of climate change and methane emission reductions on rice production: a review. Eur. J. Agron. 2003, 19:573-598.
45. Mekonnen M.M., Hoekstra A.Y. The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 15:1577-1600.
46. Mom R.J.C. A High Spatial Resolution Analysis of the Water Footprint of Global Rice Consumption 2007, (Master Thesis), University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands.
47. Monteith J.L. Climate and the efficiency of crop production in Britain. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. 1977, B281:277-294.
48. Moriondo M., Bindi M., Kundzewicz Z.W., McEvoy D., Wreford A. Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability. Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Chang. 2010, 15:657-679.
49. Morrison J.I.L. Intercellular CO2 concentration and stomatal response to CO2. Stomatal Function 1987, 229-251. Stanford University Press, Stanford. E. Zeiger, I.R. Cowan, G.D. Farquhar (Eds.).
50. Morrison J.I.L. Interactions between increasing CO2 concentration and temperature on plant growth. Plant Cell Environ. 1999, 22(6):659-682.
51. Nana E., Corbari C., Bocchiola D. A hydrologically based model for crop yield and water footprint assessment: study of maize in the Po valley. Agric. Syst. 2014, 127:139-149.
52. O'leary G.J., Christy B., Nuttall J., Huth N., Cammarano D., Stockle C., Basso B., Shcherbak I., Fitzgerald G., Luo Q., Farre-Codina I., Palta J., Asseng S. Response of wheat growth, grain yield and water use to elevated CO2 under a Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment and modelling in a semi-arid environment. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2015, 21:2670-2686. 10.1111/gcb.12830.
53. Olesen J.E., Bindi M. Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. Eur. J. Agron. 2002, 16:239-262.
54. Olesen J.E., Carter T.R., Diaz-Ambrona C.H., Fronzek S., Heidmann T., Hickler T., Holt T., Minguez M.I., Morales P., Palutikof J.P., Quemada M., Ruiz-Ramos M., Rubæk G.H., Sau F., Smith B., Sykes M.T. Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models. Clim. Chang. 2007, 81:123-143.
55. Ouda S.A., Khalil F.A., El Afandi G., Ewis M.M. Using CropSyst model to predict barley yield under climate change conditions in Egypt: I. Model calibration and validation under current climate. Afr. J. Sci. Biotechnol. 2010, 4:1-5.
56. Palazzoli I., Maskey S., Uhlenbrook S., Nana E., Bocchiola D. Impact of prospective climate change upon water resources and crop yield in the Indrawati basin, Nepal. Agric. Syst. 2014, (in press, November 2014). 10.1016/j.agsy.2014.10.016.
57. Parry M.L., Rosenzweig C., Iglesias A., Livermore M., Fischer G. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2004, 14:53-67.
58. Pearch R.W., Bjorkman O. Physiological effects. CO2 and Plants, The Response of Plants to Rising Levels of Atmospheric CO2 1983, 65-105. Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado. E.R. Lemon (Ed.).
59. Peel M.C., Finlayson B.L., McMahon T.A. Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2007, 11:1633-1644.
60. Penning de Vries F.W.T. Rice production and climate change. Systems Approaches for Agricultural Development 1993, 175-189. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. F.W.T. Penning de Vries, P. Teng, K. Metselaar (Eds.).
61. Penning de Vries F.W.T., van Keulen H., van Diepen C.A., Noy I.G.A.M., Goudriaan J. Simulated yields of wheat and rice in current weather and in future weather when ambient CO2 has doubled 1990, 347-358. Climate and Food Security, International Rice Research Institute, Los Baños, Philippines.
62. Richter G.M., Acutis M., Trevisiol P., Latiri K., Confalonieri R. Sensitivity analysis for a complex crop model applied to Durum wheat in the Mediterranean. Eur. J. Agron. 2010, 32(2):127-136.
63. Rosenzweig C., Hillel D. Climate Change and the Global Harvest 1998, Oxford University Press, New York.
64. Rossi S., Rampini A., Bocchi S., Boschetti M. Operational monitoring of daily crop water requirements at the regional scale with time series of satellite data. J. Irrig. Drain. Eng. ASCE 2010, 136(4):225-231.
65. Rost S., Gerten D., Bondeau A., Lucht W., Rohwrer J. Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system. Water Resour. Res. 2008, 44:W09405. (17 pp.).
66. Schmidhuber J., Tubiello F.N. Global food security under climate change. PNAS 2007, 104(50):19703-19708.
67. Soussana J.F., Graux A.I., Tubiello F.N. The use of modeling for projections of climate change impacts on crops and pastures. J. Exp. Bot. 2010, 61(8):2217-2228.
68. Stevens B., et al. Atmospheric component of the MPI-M Earth System Model: ECHAM6. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 2013, 5:1-27.
69. Stöckle C.O., Nelson R. Cropping Systems Simulation Model User's Manual 1999, Washington State University, (http://www.sipeaa.it/tools/CropSyst/CropSyst_manual.pdf).
70. Stöckle C.O., Williams J.R., Rosenberg N.J., Jones C.A. A method for estimating the direct and climatic effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on growth and yield of crops: part I/modification of the EPIC model for climate change analysis. Agric. Syst. 1992, 38:225-238.
71. Stöckle C.O., Martin S., Campbell G.S. Cropsyst, a cropping systems model: water/nitrogen budgets and crop yield. Agric. Syst. 1994, 46:335-359.
72. Stöckle C., Donatelli M., Roger N. CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model. Eur. J. Agron. 2003, 18:289-307.
73. Strzepek K., Boehlert B. Competition for water for the food system. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 2010, 365:2927-2940.
74. Supit I., van Diepen C.A., de Wit A.J.W., Kabat P., Baruth B., Ludwig F. Recent changes in the climatic yield potential of various crops in Europe. Agric. Syst. 2010, 103:683-694.
75. Tanner C.B., Sinclair T.R. Efficient water use in crop production. Limitation to Efficient Water Use in Crop Production 1983, 1-27. American Society of Agronomy, Madison. H.M. Taylor, W.R. Jordan, T.R. Sinclair (Eds.).
76. Torriani D., Calanca P., Lips M., Amman H., Beniston M., Fuhrer J. Regional assessment of climate change impacts on maize productivity and associated production risk in Switzerland. Reg. Environ. Chang. 2007, 7:209-221.
77. Tubiello F.N., Donatelli M., Rosenzweig C., Stockle C. Effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on cropping systems: model predictions at two Italian sites. Eur. J. Agron. 2000, 13:179-189.
78. Tubiello F.N., Soussana J.F., Howden S.M. Crop and pasture response to climate change. PNAS 2007, 104(50):19686-19690.