Impact assessment of climate change on rice production in Asia in comprehensive consideration of process/parameter uncertainty in general circulation models

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment

Volumn 131, Issue 3-4, 2009, Pages 281-291

  Masutomi, Yuji ^a   Takahashi, Kiyoshi ^a   Harasawa, Hideo ^a   Matsuoka, Yuzuru ^b  

^a NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Japan)

^b KYOTO UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

Author keywords

Asia; Climate change; GCM; Rice; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CROP PRODUCTION; EMISSION; FERTILIZER APPLICATION; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; RICE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ASIA; EURASIA;

EID: 63049088658     PISSN: 01678809     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2009.02.004     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. 2 in the field with single gene substitutions in Glycine max. Agric. For. Meteorol. 122 (2004) 85-94
2. Austin R.B. Yield of wheat in the United Kingdom: recent advances and prospects. Crop Sci. 39 (1999) 1604-1610
3. Calderini D.F., and Slafer G.A. Changes in yield and yield stability in wheat during the 20th century. Field Crops Res. 57 (1998) 335-347
4. CIA. The World Factbook (2008), Central Intelligence Agency, Washington
5. CIESIN, 2005. Gridded Population of the World (Version 3); Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Palisades. http://sedac.ciesin.org/gpw/. Accessed December, 2008.
6. Cox P., and Stephenson D. A changing climate for prediction. Science 317 (2007) 207-208
7. Easterling W.E., Aggarwal P.K., Batima P., Brander K.M., Erda L., Howden S.M., Kirilenko A., Morton J., Soussana J., Schmidhuber J., and Tubiello F.N. Food, fibre and forest products. In: Parry M.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof J.P., Van der Linden P.J., and Hanson C.E. (Eds). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
8. Evans L.T. Adapting and improving crops: the endless task. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond.: Biol. Sci. 352 (1997) 901-906
9. Evans L.T. Feeding the Ten Billion: Plant and Population Growth (1998), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
10. Ewert F., Rounsevell M.D.A., Reginster I., Metzger M.J., and Leemans R. Future scenarios of European agricultural land use. I. Estimating changes in crop productivity. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 107 (2005) 101-116
11. FAO, 1978. Report on the Agro-Ecological Zones Project. Vol. 1. Methodology and Results for Africa. World Soil Resources Report 48, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy.
12. FAO, 1995. Digital Soil Map of the World (Version 3.5). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy.
13. FAO, 1998. Crop evapotranspiration: Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy.
14. FAO, 2002. Maximum available soil moisture. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy. http://www.fao.org/geonetwork/srv/en/main.home. Accessed December, 2008.
15. FAO, 2005. FAOSTATS. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy. http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx. Accessed December, 2008.
16. Fischer G., van Velthuizen H., Shah M., and Nachtergaele F.O. Global Agro-ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century: Methodology and Results. IIASA RR-02-02 (2002), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
17. Fischer G., Shah M., Tubiello F.N., and van Velhuizen H. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 360 (2005) 2067-2083
18. 2 fertilising effect-does it occur in the real world?. New Phytol. 163 (2004) 221-225
19. Gitay H., Brown S., Easterling W., Jallow B., Antle J., Apps M., Beamish R., Chapin T., Cramer W., Frangi J., Laine J., Erda L., Magnuson J., Noble I., Price J., Prowse T., Root T., Schulze E., Sirotenko O., Sohngen B., and Soussana J. Ecosystems and their Goods and Services. In: McCarthy J.J., Canziani O.F., Leary N.A., Dokken D.J., and White K.S. (Eds). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (2001), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
20. Hafner S. Trends in maize, rice, and wheat yields for 188 nations over the past 40 years: a prevalence of linear growth. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 97 (2003) 275-283
21. In: Houghton J.T., Ding Y., Griggs D.J., Noguer M., Van der Linden P.J., and Xiaosu D. (Eds). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001), Cambridge University Press, UK
22. Kimball H.H. Amount of solar radiation that reaches the surface of the Earth on the land and on the sea, and methods by which it is measured. Mon. Weather Rev. 56 (1928) 393-398
23. Leff, B., Ramankutty, N., Foley, J.A., 2004. Geographic distribution of major crops across the world. Global Biogeochem. Cy. 18, GB1009 10.1029/2003GB002108.
24. Lobell D.B. Changes in diurnal temperature range and national cereal yields. Agric. For. Meteorol. 145 3-4 (2007) 229-238
25. Lobell D.B., Burke M.B., Tebaldi C., Mastrandrea M.D., Falcon W.P., and Naylor R.L. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319 (2008) 607-610
26. Long S.P., Ainsworth E.A., Rogers A., and Ort D.R. Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide: plants FACE the future. Annu. Rev. Plant Biol. 55 (2004) 591-628
27. 2 concentrations. Science 312 (2006) 1918-1921
28. Loomis R.S., and Connor D.J. Crop Ecology, Productivity and Management in Agricultural Systems (1992), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge
29. Matthews R.B., Kropff M.J., Horie T., and Bachelet D. Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation. Agric. Syst. 54 (1997) 399-425
30. Meehl G.A., Stocker T.F., Collins W.D., Friedlingstein P., Gaye A.T., Gregory J.M., Kitoh A., Knutti R., Murphy J.M., Noda A., Raper S.C.B., Watterson I.G., Weaver A.J., and Zhao Z. Global Climate Projections. In: Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K.B., Tignor M., and Miller H.L. (Eds). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
31. Meehl G.A., Covey C., Delworth T., Latif M., McAvaney B., Mitchell J.F.B., Stouffer R.J., and Taylor K.E. The WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: a new era in climate change. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88 (2007) 1383-1394
32. Mitchell T.D., and Jones P.D. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatol. 25 (2005) 693-712
33. 2 concentration. J. Exp. Bot. 49 (1998) 443-452
34. Nakićenovi and Swart (Eds.), 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
35. Nearing M.A., Pruski F.F., and O'Neal M.R. Expected climate change impacts on soil erosion rates: a review. J. Soil Water Conserv. 59 (2004) 43-50
36. New M., Hulme M., and Jones P.D. Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability. Part 1. Development of a 1961-1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J. Clim. 12 (1999) 829-856
37. OECD, 1979. The Impact of the Newly Industrializing Countries, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris.
38. Oerke E.C., and Dehne H.W. Global crop production and the efficacy of crop protection-current situation and future trends. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 103 (1997) 203-215
39. Porter J.R., and Semenov M.A. Crop responses to climatic variation. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 360 (2005) 2021-2035
40. Reynolds M.P., Rajaram S., and Sayre K.D. Physiological and genetic changes of irrigated wheat in the post-green revolution period and approaches for meeting projected global demand. Crop Sci. 39 (1999) 1611-1621
41. Rosenzweig C., and Parry M.L. Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367 (1994) 133-138
42. Rounsevell M.D.A., Ewert F., Reginster I., Leemans R., and Carter T.R. Future scenarios of European agricultural land use. II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 107 (2005) 117-135
43. Siebert S., Döll P., Hoogeveen J., Faures J.M., Frenken K., and Feick S. Development and validation of the global map of irrigation areas. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 9 (2005) 535-547
44. Takahashi K., Matsuoka Y., and Harasawa H. Impacts of climate change on water resources, crop production and natural ecosystem in the Asia and Pacific region. J. Global Environ. Eng. 1 (1998) 91-103
45. 2 and world food supply. Eur. J. Agron. 26 (2007) 215-223
46. United Nation, 2006. World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database, New York. http://esa.un.org/unpp/. Accessed December, 2008.
47. USGS, 1996. GTOPO30. United States Geological Survey; http://www1.gsi.go.jp/geowww/globalmap-gsi/gtopo30/gtopo30.html. Accessed December, 2008.
48. Williams J.T. The EPIC model. In: Singh V.P. (Ed). Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology (1995), Water Resources Publisher, Colorado, USA
49. World Bank. World Development Indicators 2006 (2006), World Bank, Washington