Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 365, Issue 1554, 2010, Pages 2973-2989

  Gornall, Jemma ^a   Betts, Richard ^a   Burke, Eleanor ^a   Clark, Robin ^a   Camp, Joanne ^a   Willett, Kate ^a   Wiltshire, Andrew ^a  

^a MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Agriculture; Climate; Climate impacts; Food securtity

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL APPLICATION; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; DROUGHT; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; FOOD SECURITY; LITERATURE REVIEW; PRODUCTIVITY; RAINFALL; SNOWMELT;

EID: 77957306842     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0158     Document Type: Review

References (93)

1. Abou-Hadid, A. F., Mougou, R., Mokssit, A. & Iglesias, A. 2003 Assessment of impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to climate change in North Africa: food production and water resources. AIACC AF90 Semi-Annual Progress Report.
2. Abtew, W., Pathak, C., Scott Huebner, R. & Ciuca, V. 2009 Hydrology of the South Florida Environment. In 2009 South Florida Environmental Report, South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, FL.vol. I, ch. 2.
3. 2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy. New Phytol. 165, 351-371. (doi:10.1111/j. 1469-8137. 2004.01224.x)
4. Alcamo, J., Dronin, N., Endejan, M., Golubev, G. & Kirilenkoc, A. 2007 A new assessment of climate change impacts on food production shortfalls and water availability in Russia. Global Environ. Change-Hum. Policy Dimens. 17, 429-444.
5. Alexandrov, V., Eitzinger, J., Cajic, V. & Oberforster, M. 2002 Potential impact of climate change on selected agricultural crops in north-eastern Austria. Global Change Biol. 8, 372-389. (doi:10.1046/j.1354-1013. 2002.00484.x) (Pubitemid 34466030)
6. 2 stabilisation for the impacts of climate change. Clim. Change 53, 413-446. (doi:10.1023/A:1015277014327) (Pubitemid 34565114)
7. Arnell, N. W., Livermore, M. J. L., Kovats, S., Levy, P. E., Nicholls, R., Parry, M. L. & Gaffin, S. R. 2004 Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterising the SRES storylines. Global Environ. Change-Hum. Policy Dimens. 14, 3-20.
8. Asada, H. & Matsumoto, J. 2009 Effects of rainfall variation on rice production in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin.Clim. Res. 38, 249-260.
9. Audsley, E., Pearn, K. R., Simota, C., Cojocaru, G., Koutsidou, E., Rounsevell, M. D. A., Trnka, M. & Alexandrov, V. 2006 What can scenario modelling tell us about future European scale agricultural land-use, and what not? Environ. Sci. Policy 9, 148-162. (doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2005.11.008) (Pubitemid 43329470)
10. Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C. & Lettenmaier, D. P. 2005 Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature 438, 303-309. (doi:10.1038/nature04141) (Pubitemid 41643941)
11. Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S. & Palutikof, J. P. 2008 Climate change and water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC Secretariat.
12. Battisti, D. S. & Naylor, R. L. 2009 Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science 323, 240-244. (doi:10.1126/science.1164363)
13. Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., Esch, M., Keenlyside, N., Kornblueh, L., Luo, J. J. & Yamagata, T. 2007 How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate? Tellus 59, 539-561.
14. Berthier, E., Arnaud, Y., Kumar, R., Ahmad, S., Wagnon, P. & Chevallier, P. 2007 Remote sensing estimates of glacier mass balances in the Himachal Pradesh (Western Himalaya, India). Remote Sensing Environ. 108, 327-338. (doi:10.1016/j.rse.2006.11.017) (Pubitemid 46669604)
15. Betts, R. A. et al. 2007 Projected increase in future river runoff through plant responses to carbon dioxide rise. Nature 448, 1037-1042. (doi:10.1038/nature06045) (Pubitemid 47345580)
16. Burke,E.J.,Brown,S.J. & Christidis, N. 2006 Modelingthe recent evolution of global drought and projections for the twenty-first century with the Hadley Centre climate model. J. Hydrometeorol. 7, 1113-1125. (doi:10.1175/ JHM544.1)
17. 2]. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 106, 233-242. (doi:10.1016/j.agee.2004.10.011) (Pubitemid 40318795)
18. Cheke, R. A. & Tratalos, J. A. 2007 Migration, patchiness, and population processes illustrated by two migrant pests. Bioscience 57, 145-154. (doi:10.1641/B570209)
19. Christensen, J. H. et al. 2007 Regional climate projections. In Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H. L. Miller), pp. 847-940. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
20. Ciais, P. et al. 2005 Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature 437, 529-533. (doi:10.1038/nature03972) (Pubitemid 41613547)
21. Cruz, R. V. et al. 2007 Asia. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden & C. E. Hanson), pp. 469-506. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
22. Ding, Y., Liu, S., Li, J. & Shangguan, D. 2006 The retreat of glaciers in response to recent climate warming in western China. Ann. Glaciol. 43, 97-105. (doi:10.3189/172756406781812005)
23. Döll, P. 2002 Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements: a global perspective. Clim. Change 54, 269-293. (doi:10.1023/A:1016124032231) (Pubitemid 34824940)
24. Döll, P. & Siebert, S. 2002 Global modeling of irrigation water requirements. Water Resour. Res. 38.(doi:10.1029/2001WR000355)
25. Easterling, W. E. et al. 2007 Food, fibre and forest products. In Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. v. d. Linden & C. E. Hanson), pp. 273-313. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
26. Evans, N., Baierl, A., Semenov, M. A., Gladders, P. & Fitt, B. D. L. 2008 Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming. J. R. Soc. Interface 5, 525-531. (doi:10.1098/rsif.2007.1136) (Pubitemid 351380281)
27. Ewert, F., Rounsevell, M. D. A., Reginster, I., Metzger, M. J. & Leemans, R. 2005 Future scenarios of European agricultural land use I. Estimating changes in crop productivity. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 107,101-116.(doi:10.1016/j.agee. 2004.12.003) (Pubitemid 40466207)
28. Falloon, P. D., Betts, R. In press. Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation-the importance of an integrated approach. Sci. Total Environ. (doi:10.1016/j. scitotenv. 2009.05.002)
29. FAO 2000 FAO/WFP mission to assess the impact of cyclones and drought on the food supply situation in Madagascar. See http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/X737 9E/X7379E00.HTM.
30. FAO 2007 Floods and cyclones cause heavy crop losses in parts of southern Africa. See http://www.fao.org/news-room/en/news/2007/1000518/index.html.
31. FAO 2009 FAO/WFP crop and food security assessment mission to Myanmar. See http://www.fao.org/docrep/ 011/ai478e/ai478e00.htm.
32. 2: implications from the plant to the global scale. Plant Cell Environ. 18, 1214-1255. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-3040.1995.tb00630.x)
33. Fischer, G., Shah, M., Tubiello, F. N. & van Velhuizen, H.2005 Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360, 2067-2083. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1744) (Pubitemid 46696773)
34. Fischer, G., Tubiello, F., Van Velhuizen, H. & Wiberg, D.2006 Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: effects of mitigation, 1990-2989. Technol. Forecasting Soc. Change 74, 1083-1107. (doi:10.1016/j. techfore.2006.05.021)
35. 2 on managed ecosystems, Ascona, Switzerland, March 2004. New Phytol. 163, 221-225. (doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2004.01133.x) (Pubitemid 39009254)
36. Gregory, P. J., Johnson, S. N., Newton, A. C. & Ingram, J. S. I. 2009 Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate. J. Exp. Bot. 60, 2827-2838. (doi:10.1093/jxb/erp080)
37. Gualdi, S., Scoccimarro, E. & Navarra, A. 2008 Changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming: results from a high-resolution coupled general circulation model. J. Clim. 21, 5204-5228. (doi:10.1175/2008J CLI1921.1)
38. Hilden, M., Lehtonen, H., Barlund, I., Hakala, K., Kaukoranta, T. & Tattari, S. 2005 The practice and process of adaptation in Finnish agriculture. FINADAPT Working Paper 5, Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs, no. 335. Helsinki, Finland: Finnish Environment Institute.
39. Holland, G. J. 1993 The global guide to tropical cyclone forecasting. Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization.
40. Holton, J. R., Curry, J. A. & Pyle, J. A. 2003Encyclopedia of atmospheric sciences. New York, NY: Academic Press.
41. IFRC 2007 Madagascar: cyclone Indlala. See http://www.re-liefweb.int/rw/ rwb.nsf/db900sid/JBRN-6ZRGP7?Open Document&query=cyclone%20indlala.
42. IPCC 2007 Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
43. Juen, I., Kaser, G. & Georges, C. 2007 Modelling observed and future runoff from a glacierized tropical catchment (Cordillera Blanca, Peru). Global Planet. Change 59, 37-48. (doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.038) (Pubitemid 47539863)
44. Kehrwald, N.M., Thompson, L.G., Yao, T.D., Mosley-Thompson, E., Schotterer, U., Alfimov, V., Beer, J., Eikenberg, J. & Davis, M. E. 2008 Mass loss on Himalayan glacier endangers water resources. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L22503. (doi:10.1029/2008GL035556)
45. Kettlewell, P. S., Sothern, R. B. & Koukkari, W. L. 1999 UK wheat quality and economic value are dependent on the North Atlantic oscillation. J. Cereal Sci. 29, 205-209. (doi:10.1006/jcrs.1999.0258)
46. Knapp, K. R., Kruk, M. C., Levinson, D. H., Diamond, H. J. & Neumann, C. J. 2010 The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS): unifying tropical cyclone best track data. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 91, 363-376.
47. Kumar, K. K., Kumar, K. R., Ashrit, R. G., Deshpande, N. R. & Hansen, J. W. 2004 Climate impacts on Indian agriculture. Int. J. Climatol. 24, 1375-1393.
48. Li, Y. P., Ye, W., Wang, M. & Yan, X. D. 2009 Climate change and drought: a risk assessment of crop-yield impacts. Clim. Res. 39, 31-46.
49. Lobell, D. B. & Field, C. B. 2007 Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 2,1-7.
50. Lobell, D. B. & Burke, M. B. 2008 Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation. Environ. Res. Lett. 3,1-8.
51. Long, S. P., Ainsworth, E. A., Rogers, A. & Ort, D. R. 2004 Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide: plants face the future. Annu. Rev. Plant Biol. 55, 591-628. (doi:10.1146/annurev.arplant.55.031903.141610) (Pubitemid 38940945)
52. Long, S. P., Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. D. B. & Morgan, P. B. 2009 Global food insecurity. Treatment of major food crops with elevated carbon dioxide or ozone under large-scale fully open-air conditions suggests recent models may have overestimated future yields. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360, 2011-2020. (doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1749)
53. Lowe, J. A. et al. 2009UK Climate Projections science report: marine and coastal projections. Exeter, UK: Met Office Hadley Centre.
54. Maracchi, G., Sirotenko, O. & Bindi, M. 2005 Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the temperate regions: Europe. Clim. Change 70, 117-135. (doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5939-7) (Pubitemid 40938415)
55. McDonald, R. E., Bleaken, D. G., Cresswell, D. R., Pope, V. D. & Senior, C. A. 2005 Tropical storms: representation and diagnosis in climate models and the impacts of climate change. Clim. Dyn. 25, 19-36. (doi:10.1007/ s00382-004-0491-0)
56. Meehl, G. A. et al. 2007 Global climate projections. In Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis,K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H. L. Miller), pp. 747-846.Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
57. Morgan, P. B., Ainsworth, E. A. & Long, S. P. 2003 How does elevated ozone impact soybean? A meta-analysis of photosynthesis, growth and yield. Plant Cell Environ. 26, 1317-1328. (doi:10.1046/j.0016-8025.2003.01056.x) (Pubitemid 36996680)
58. Nelson, G. C. et al. 2009 Climate change impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
59. 2 and temperature on aphid population dynamics. Global Change Biol. 10, 5-15. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2003.00709.x) (Pubitemid 38162536)
60. 2enrichment. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 101, 9689-9693. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0403491101) (Pubitemid 38869297)
61. Olesen, J. E. & Bindi, M. 2002 Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. Eur. J. Agron. 16, 239-262. (doi:10.1016/ S1161-0301(02)00004-7)
62. Olesen, J. E. et al. 2007 Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models. Clim. Change 81, 123-143. (doi:10.1007/s10584-006- 9216-1) (Pubitemid 46716677)
63. Palmer, W. C. 1965 Meteorological drought. Research paper 45. Washington, DC: US Weather Bureau.
64. Parry, M. L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M. & Fischer, G. 2004 Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environ. Change-Hum. Policy Dimens. 14, 53-67.
65. Pfeffer, W. T., Harper, J. T. & O'Neel, S. 2008 Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise. Science 321, 1340-1343. (doi:10.1126/ science.1159099)
66. Porter, J. R. & Gawith, M. 1999 Temperatures and the growth and development of wheat: a review. Eur. J. Agron. 10, 23-36. (doi:10.1016/S1161- 0301(98)00047-1) (Pubitemid 29083557)
67. Porter, J. R. & Semenov, M. A. 2005 Crop responses to climatic variation. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360, 2021-2035. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1752) (Pubitemid 46696770)
68. Reilly, J. et al. 2003 US agriculture and climate change: new results. Clim. Change 57, 43-69.
69. Richter, G. M. & Semenov, M. A. 2005 Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks. Agric. Syst. 84, 77-97. (doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2004.06.011) (Pubitemid 40257100)
70. Rohling, E. J., Grant, K., Hemleben, C., Siddall, M., Hoogakker, B. A.A., Bolshaw, M. & Kucera, M. 2008 High rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period. Nat. Geosci. 1, 38-42. (doi:10.1038/ngeo.2007.28)
71. 2) and either water or N deficits. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 79, 53-60. (doi:10.1016/S0167-8809(99)00146-2) (Pubitemid 30319643)
72. Sivakumar, M. V. K., Das, H. P. & Brunini, O. 2005 Impacts of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics. Clim. Change 70, 31-72. (doi:10.1007/s10584-005- 5937-9) (Pubitemid 40938413)
73. Staley, J. T. & Johnson, S. N. 2008 Climate change impacts on root herbivores. In Root Feeders: an ecosystem perspective (eds S. N. Johnson & P. J. Murray). Wallingford,UK: CABI.
74. Stern, N. 2007The economics of climate change: the Stern review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
75. Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A. & Allen, M. R. 2004 Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 432, 610-614. (doi:10.1038/nature03089) (Pubitemid 39626265)
76. Stover, E. & Vinck, P. 2008 Cyclone Nargis and the politics of relief and reconstruction aid in Burma (Myanmar). J. Am. Med. Assoc. 300, 729-731. (doi:10.1001/jama. 300.6.729)
77. Tao, F. L., Yokozawa, M., Hayashi, Y. & Lin, E. D. 2003 Future climate change, the agricultural water cycle, and agricultural production in China. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 97, 361-361. (doi:10.1016/S0167-8809(03)00174-9) (Pubitemid 36820915)
78. Tubiello, F. & Fischer, G. 2006 Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture: global and regional effects ofmiti-gation, 2000-2080. Technol. Forecasting Soc. Change 74, 1030-1056. (doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.027)
79. Tubiello, F. N., Rosenzweig, C., Goldberg, R. A., Jagtap, S. & Jones, J. W. 2002 Effects of climate change on US crop production: simulation results using two different GCM scenarios. Part I: wheat, potato, maize, and citrus. Clim. Res. 20, 259-270.
80. 2 and world food supply-a comment on 'food for thoughtby Long et al. Science 312: 1918-1921, 2006.
81. Eur. J. Agron. 26, 215-223. (doi:10.1016/j.eja.2006.10.002)
82. Tuck, G., Glendining, M. J., Smith, P., House, J. I. & Wattenbach, M. 2006 The potential distribution of bio-energy crops in Europe under present and future climate. Biomass Bioenergy 30, 183-197. (doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2005.11. 019) (Pubitemid 43243037)
83. United Nations. 2007Cyclone Sidr United Nations Rapid Initial Assessment Report. See http://ochaonline.un.org/News/NaturalDisasters/Bangladesh/tabid/ 2707/Default. aspx.
84. Van Dingenen, R., Dentener, F. J., Raes, F., Krol, M. C., Emberson, L. & Cofala, J. 2009 The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation. Atmos. Environ. 43, 604-618.
85. Vara Prasad, P. V., Boote, K. J., Allen, L. H. & Thomas, J. M. G. 2003 Super-optimal temperatures are detrimental to peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) reproductive processes and yield at both ambient and elevated carbon dioxide. Global Change Biol. 9, 1775-1787. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00708.x) (Pubitemid 38092873)
86. 2 pump. Photosynth. Res. 77, 191-207.
87. Walther, S. & Abtew, W. 2006 Contribution of rainfall from tropical systems in South Florida. In South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach. Palm Beach, FL: Environmental Resources Department.
88. Webster, P. J. 2008 Myanmar's deadly daffodil. Nat. Geosci. 1, 488-490. (doi:10.1038/ngeo257)
89. Wheeler, T. R., Craufurd, P. Q., Ellis, R. H., Porter, J. R. & Prasad, P. V. V. 2000 Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 82, 159-167. (doi:10.1016/S0167-8809(00)00224-3)
90. Wollenweber, B., Porter, J. R. & Schellberg, J. 2003 Lack of interaction between extreme high-temperature events at vegetative and reproductive growth stages in wheat. J. Agron. Crop Sci. 189, 142-150. (doi:10.1046/j.1439-037X.2003.00025.x) (Pubitemid 36821006)
91. 2-implications for water-limited environments. Plant Cell Environ. 25, 319-331. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-3040.2002. 00796.x) (Pubitemid 34179275)
92. Zemp, M., Roer, I., Kaab, A., Hoelzle, M., Paul, F. & Haeberli, W. 2008 Global glacier changes: facts and figures. Zurich, Switzerland: UNEP, World Glacier Monitoring Service.
93. Zhou, X. L., Harrington, R., Woiwod, I. P., Perry, J. N., Bale, J. S. & Clark, S. J. 1995 Effects of temperature on aphid phenology. Global Change Biol. 1, 303-313. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.1995.tb00029.x)