Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

Marine Ecology Progress Series

Volumn 531, Issue , 2015, Pages 121-142

  Villarino, Ernesto ^a   Chust, Guillem ^a   Licandro, Priscilla ^b   Butenschön, Momme ^c   Ibaibarriaga, Leire ^a   Larrañaga, Aitor ^d   Irigoien, Xabier ^e  

^a MARINE RESEARCH DIVISION   (Spain)

^b THE LABORATORY   (United Kingdom)

^c PLYMOUTH MARINE LABORATORY   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF THE BASQUE COUNTRY UPV EHU   (Spain)

^e KING ABDULLAH UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Saudi Arabia)

Author keywords

Biogeography; Climate change; GAM; Habitat suitability; North Atlantic; Zooplankton

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; BIOGEOGRAPHY; CLIMATE EFFECT; CRUSTACEAN; FUTURE PROSPECT; GLOBAL WARMING; HABITAT SELECTION; INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION; KEYSTONE SPECIES; PELAGIC ECOSYSTEM; PHENOLOGY; POLAR FRONT; RANGE EXPANSION; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; SPECIES DIVERSITY; SPECIES OCCURRENCE; ZOOPLANKTON;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH);

CALANUS FINMARCHICUS; COPEPODA;

EID: 84937905480     PISSN: 01718630     EISSN: 16161599     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/meps11299     Document Type: Article

References (118)

1. Alheit J, Hagen E (1997) Long-term climate forcing of European herring and sardine populations. Fish Oceanogr 6: 130-139
2. Amante C, Eakins BW (2009) ETOPO1 1 arc-minute global relief model: procedures, data sources and analysis. NOAA Tech Memo NESDIS NGDC-24
3. Araújo MB, Guisan A (2006) Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. J Biogeogr 33: 1677-1688
4. Beaugrand G (2003) Long-term changes in copepod abundance and diversity in the North-East Atlantic in relation to fluctuations in the hydroclimatic environment. Fish Oceanogr 12: 270-283
5. Beaugrand G (2004) The North Sea regime shift: evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences. Prog Oceanogr 60: 245-262
6. Beaugrand G (2009) Decadal changes in climate and ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Deep-Sea Res Part II 56: 656-673
7. Beaugrand G (2012) Unanticipated biological changes and global warming. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 445: 293-301
8. Beaugrand G, Ibañez F (2002) Spatial dependence of calanoid copepod diversity in the North Atlantic Ocean. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 232: 197-211
9. Beaugrand G, Kirby RR (2010) Climate, plankton and cod. Glob Change Biol 16: 1268-1280
10. Beaugrand G, Reid PC (2003) Long-term changes in phyto-plankton, zooplankton and salmon related to climate. Global Change Biol 9:801-817
11. Beaugrand G, Reid PC, Ibañez F, Planque B (2000) Biodiversity of North Atlantic and North Sea calanoid copepods. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 204: 299-303
12. Beaugrand G, Reid PC, Ibañez F, Lindley JA, Edwards M (2002a) Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate. Science 296: 1692-1694
13. Beaugrand G, Ibañez F, Lindley JA, Reid PC (2002b) Diversity of calanoid copepods in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas: species associations and biogeography. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 232: 179-195
14. Beaugrand G, Lindley JA, Helaouet P, Bonnet D (2007) Macroecological study of Centropages typicus in the North Atlantic Ocean. Prog Oceanogr 72: 259-273
15. Beaugrand G, Edwards M, Brander K, Luczak C, Ibañez F (2008) Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic. Ecol Lett 11: 1157-1168
16. Beaugrand G, Christophe L, Martin E (2009) Rapid biogeo-graphical plankton shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean. Glob Change Biol 15: 1790-1803
17. Beaugrand G, Lenoir S, Ibañez F, Manté C (2011) A new model to assess the probability of occurrence of a species, based on presence-only data. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 424: 175-190
18. Beaugrand G, Mackas D, Goberville E (2013) Applying the concept of the ecological niche and a macroecological approach to understand how climate influences zoo-plankton: advantages, assumptions, limitations and re quirements. Prog Oceanogr 111: 75-90
19. Bonnet D, Richardson A, Harris R, Hirst A and others (2005) An overview of Calanus helgolandicus ecology in European waters. Prog Oceanogr 65: 1-53
20. Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and multi-model inference: a practical information-theoretic approach, 2nd edn. Springer, New York, NY
21. Calenge C, Darmon G, Basille M, Loison A, Jullien JM (2008) The factorial decomposition of the Mahalanobis distances in habitat selection studies. Ecology 89: 555-566
22. Cheung WWL, Lam VWY, Sarmiento JL, Kearney K, Watson R, Pauly D (2009) Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish Fish 10: 235-251
23. Chust G, Irigoien X, Chave J, Harris RP (2013) Latitudinal phytoplankton distribution and the neutral theory of biodiversity. Global Ecol Biogeogr 22: 531-543
24. Chust G, Castellani C, Licandro P, Ibaibarriaga L, Sagarmi-naga Y, Irigoien X (2014a) Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach. ICES J Mar Sci 71: 241-253
25. Chust G, Allen JI, Bopp L, Schrum C and others (2014b) Bio-mass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean. Glob Change Biol 20: 2124-2139
26. Conover RJ (1988) Comparative life histories in the genera Calanus and Neocalanus in high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Hydrobiologia 167-168: 127-142
27. Crisp MD, Arroyo MTK, Cook LG, Gandolfo MA and others (2009) Phylogenetic biome conservatism on a global scale. Nature 458: 754-756
28. Dam HG (2013) Evolutionary adaptation of marine zoo-plankton to global change. Annu Rev Mar Sci 5: 349-370
29. de Boyer Montégut C, Madec G, Fischer AS, Lazar A, Iudi-cone D (2004) Mixed layer depth over the global ocean: an examination of profile data and a profile-based climatology. J Geophys Res C 109: C12003, doi: 10.1029/2004 JC002378
30. deYoung B, Harris R, Alheit J, Beaugrand G, Mantua N, Shannon L (2004) Detecting regime shifts in the ocean: data considerations. Prog Oceanogr 60: 143-164
31. Dietrich G (1964) Oceanic polar front survey. Rev Geophys 2: 291-308
32. Durbin E, Kane J (2007) Seasonal and spatial dynamics of Centropages typicus and C. hamatus in the western North Atlantic. Prog Oceanogr 72: 249-258
33. Edwards M, Richardson, AJ (2004) Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch. Nature 430: 881-884
34. Edwards M, Reid P, Planque B (2001) Long-term and re-gional variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Northeast Atlantic (1960-1995). ICES J Mar Sci 58: 39-49
35. Eilertsen HC, Wyatt T (2000) Phytoplankton models and life history strategies. S Afr J Mar Sci 22: 323-338
36. Elith J, Leathwick JR (2009) Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 40: 677-697
37. Elith J, Phillips SJ, Hastie T, Dudík M, Chee YE, Yates CJ (2011) A statistical explanation of maxent for ecologists. Divers Distrib 17: 43-57
38. Etherington TR, Ward AI, Smith GC, Pietravalle S, Wilson GJ (2009) Using the Mahalanobis distance statistic with unplanned presence-only survey data for biogeographi-cal models of species distribution and abundance: a case study of badger setts. J Biogeogr 36: 845-853
39. Farber O, Kadmon R (2003) Assessment of alternative ap-proaches for bioclimatic modeling with special emphasis on the Mahalanobis distance. Ecol Model 160: 115-130
40. Graham CH, Hijmans RJ (2006) A comparison of methods for mapping species ranges and species richness. Global Ecol Biogeogr 15: 578-587
41. Greve W, Reiners F, Nast J, Hoffmann S (2004) Helgoland Roads meso-and macrozooplankton time-series 1974 to 2004: lessons from 30 years of single spot, high frequency sampling at the only off-shore island of the North Sea. Helgol Mar Res 58: 274-288
42. Guisan A, Thuiller W (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol Lett 8: 993-1009
43. Guisan A, Zimmermann NE (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol Model 135: 147-186
44. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ (1982) The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (roc) curve. Radiology 143: 29-36
45. Hastie TJ, Tibshirani RJ (1990) Generalized additive models, Chapman & Hall, London
46. Head EJH, Harris LR, Yashayaev I (2003) Distributions of Calanus spp. and other mesozooplankton in the Labrador Sea in relation to hydrography in spring and summer (1995-2000). Prog Oceanogr 59: 1-30
47. Heath MR, Boyle PR, Gislason A, Gurney WSC and others (2004) Comparative ecology of over-wintering Calanus finmarchicus in the northern North Atlantic, and implications for life-cycle patterns. ICES J Mar Sci 61: 698-708
48. Helaouët P, Beaugrand G (2007) Macroecology of Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 345: 147-165
49. Helaouët P, Beaugrand G (2009) Physiology, ecological niches and species distribution. Ecosystems 12: 1235-1245
50. Helaouët P, Beaugrand G, Reid PC (2011) Macrophysiology of Calanus finmarchicus in the North Atlantic Ocean. Prog Oceanogr 91: 217-228
51. Hickling R, Roy DB, Hill JK, Fox R, Thomas CD (2006) The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Glob Change Biol 12: 450-455
52. Hijmans RJ (2012) Cross-validation of species distribution models: removing spatial sorting bias and calibration with a null model. Ecology 93: 679-688
53. Hijmans RJ, Phillips S, Leathwick J, Elith J (2013) Dismo: species distribution modeling. R package version 0.8-17. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=dismo (accessed 29 Aug 2013)
54. Hinder SL, Gravenor MB, Edwards M, Ostle C and others (2014) Multi-decadal range changes vs. thermal adaptation for North East Atlantic oceanic copepods in the face of climate change. Glob Change Biol 20: 140-146
55. Hirche HJ (1991) Distribution of dominant calanoid copepod species in the Greenland Sea during late fall. Polar Biol 11: 351-362
56. Hutchinson G (1957) Concluding remarks. Cold Spring Harbour Symp Quantitative Biology 22: 415-427
57. Ilyina T, Six KD, Segschneider J, Maier-Reimer E, Li H, Núñez-Riboni I (2013) Global ocean biogeochemistry model HAMOCC: model architecture and performance as component of the MPI-Earth system model in different CMIP5 experimental realizations. J Adv Model Earth Syst 5: 287-315
58. IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z and others (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 1-18
59. Irigoien X (2004) Some ideas about the role of lipids in the life cycle of Calanus finmarchicus. J Plankton Res 26: 259-263
60. Irigoien X, Chust G, Fernandes JA, Albaina A, Zarauz L (2011) Factors determining the distribution and betadi-versity of mesozooplankton species in shelf and coastal waters of the Bay of Biscay. J Plankton Res 33: 1182-1192
61. Ji R, Edwards M, Mackas DL, Runge JA, Thomas AC (2010) Marine plankton phenology and life history in a changing climate: current research and future directions. J Plankton Res 32: 1355-1368
62. Jiménez-Valverde A, Lobo JM (2007) Threshold criteria for conversion of probability of species presence to either-or presence-absence. Acta Oecol 31: 361-369
63. Johns DG, Edwards M, Batten SD (2001) Arctic boreal plankton species in the Northwest Atlantic. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 58: 2121-2124
64. Jungclaus JH, Fischer N, Haak H, Lohmann K and others (2013) Characteristics of the ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean component of the MPI-Earth system model. J Adv Model Earth Syst 5: 422-446
65. Kane J, Prezioso J (2008) Distribution and multi-annual abundance trends of the copepod Temora longicornis in the US northeast shelf ecosystem. J Plankton Res 30: 619-632
66. Kirby RR, Beaugrand G (2009) Trophic amplification of climate warming. Proc R Soc Lond B 276: 4095-4103
67. Kroeker KJ, Kordas RL, Crim RN, Singh GG (2010) Metaanalysis reveals negative yet variable effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms. Ecol Lett 13: 1419-1434
68. Lavergne S, Mouquet N, Thuiller W, Ronce O (2010) Biodiversity and climate change: integrating evolutionary and ecological responses of species and communities. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 41: 321-350
69. Lee S-K, Park W, van Sebille E, Baringer MO and others (2011) What caused the significant increase in Atlantic Ocean heat content since the mid-20th century? Geo-phys Res Lett 38: L17607, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048856
70. Levitus S (1983) Climatological atlas of the world ocean. Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 64: 962-963
71. Longhurst AR (2007) Ecological geography of the sea, 2nd edn. Academic Press, Burlington, MA, p 51-70
72. Mackas DL, Goldblatt R, Lewis AG (1998) Interdecadal variation in developmental timing of Neocalanus plumchrus populations at ocean station P in the subarctic North Pacific. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 55: 1878-1893
73. Mackas DL, Batten S, Trudel M (2007) Effects on zoo-plankton of a warmer ocean: recent evidence from the Northeast Pacific. Prog Oceanogr 75: 223-252
74. Mahalanobis PC (1936) On the generalized distance in statistics. Proc Natl Inst Sci India 2: 49-55
75. Maps F, Pershing AJ, Record NR (2011) A generalized approach for simulating growth and development in diverse marine copepod species. ICES J Mar Sci 69: 370-379
76. Marsland SJ, Haak H, Jungclaus JH, Latif M, Röske F (2003) The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Model 5: 91-127
77. Mauchline J (1998) Preface. In: Mauchline J (ed) The biology of calanoid copepods. Advances in marine biology, Vol. 33. Academic Press, San Diego, CA
78. Melle W, Runge JA, Head E, Plourde S and others (2014) The North Atlantic Ocean as habitat for Calanus finmarchicus: environmental factors and life history traits. Prog Oceanogr 129: 244-284
79. Molinero JC, Ibanez F, Souissi S, Buecher E, Dallot S, Nival P (2008) Climate control on the long-term anomalous changes of zooplankton communities in the northwestern Mediterranean. Glob Change Biol 14: 11-26
80. Møller EF, Maar M, Jónasdóttir SH, Nielsen TG, Tönnesson K (2012) The effect of changes in temperature and food on the development of Calanus finmarchicus and Ca lanus helgolandicus populations. Limnol Oceanogr 57: 211-220
81. Monterroso P, Brito JC, Ferreras P, Alves PC (2009) Spatial ecology of the European wildcat in a Mediterranean ecosystem: dealing with small radio-tracking datasets in species conservation. J Zool 279:27-35
82. Moore PJ, Thompson RC, Hawkins SJ (2011) Phenological changes in intertidal con-specific gastropods in response to climate warming. Glob Change Biol 17: 709-719
83. Nogués-Bravo D, Rodríguez J, Hortal J, Batra P, Araújo MB (2008) Climate change, humans, and the extinction of the woolly mammoth. PLoS Biol 6: e79
84. Nyberg C, Wallentinus I (2005) Can species traits be used to predict marine macroalgal introductions? Biol Invasions 7: 265-279
85. Oksanen J, Minchin PR (2002) Continuum theory revisited: what shape are species responses along ecological gradients? Ecol Model 157: 119-129
86. Orr JC, Fabry VJ, Aumont O, Bopp L and others (2005) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437: 681-686
87. Parmesan C (2005) Biotic response: range and abundance changes. In: Lovejoy TE, Hannah, L (eds) Climate change and biodiversity. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, p 41-55
88. Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 37: 637-669
89. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42
90. Pearson RG, Dawson TP (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: Are bio-climate envelope models useful? Global Ecol Biogeogr 12: 361-371
91. Peijnenburg KT, Fauvelot C, Breeuwer JA, Menken SB (2006) Spatial and temporal genetic structure of the planktonic Sagitta setosa (chaetognatha) in European seas as revealed by mitochondrial and nuclear DNA markers. Mol Ecol 15: 3319-3338
92. Perry AL, Low PJ, Ellis JR, Reynolds JD (2005) Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science 308: 1912-1915
93. Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Model 190: 231-259
94. 15N) in relation to oceano-graphic conditions in the sub-Arctic Pacific and western Arctic regions during the summer of 2008. J Plankton Res 36: 757-775
95. Provan JIM, Beatty GE, Maggs CA, Savidge G (2007) Expressed sequence tag-derived microsatellites for the cool-water marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus. Mol Ecol Notes 7: 1369-1371
96. Provan J, Beatty GE, Keating SL, Maggs CA, Savidge G (2009) High dispersal potential has maintained long-term population stability in the North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus. Proc R Soc B 276:301-307
97. Raes N, ter Steege H (2007) A null-model for significance testing of presence-only species distribution models. Ecography 30: 727-736
98. Reid PC, Borges Md F, Svendsen E (2001) A regime shift in the North Sea circa 1988 linked to changes in the North Sea horse mackerel fishery. Fish Res 50: 163-171
99. Reygondeau G, Beaugrand G (2011) Future climate-driven shifts in distribution of Calanus finmarchicus. Glob Change Biol 17: 756-766
100. Richardson AJ (2008) In hot water: zooplankton and climate change. ICES J Mar Sci 65: 279-295
101. Richardson AJ, Schoeman DS (2004) Climate impact on plankton ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic. Science 305: 1609-1612
102. Sorte CJB, Williams SL, Carlton JT (2010) Marine range shifts and species introductions: comparative spread rates and community impacts. Global Ecol Biogeogr 19: 303-316
103. Speirs DC, Gurney WSC, Heath MR, Wood SN (2005) Modelling the basin-scale demography of Calanus finmarchi-cus in the North-east Atlantic. Fish Oceanogr 14: 333-358
104. Stegert C, Ji R, Davis CS (2010) Influence of projected ocean warming on population growth potential in two North Atlantic copepod species. Prog Oceanogr 87: 264-276
105. Tewksbury JJ, Huey RB, Deutsch CA (2008) Putting the heat on tropical animals. Science 320: 1296-1297
106. Thomas CD (2010) Climate, climate change and range boundaries. Divers Distrib 16: 488-495
107. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M and others (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427: 145-148
108. VanDerWal J, Falconi L, Januchowski S, Shoo L, Storlie C. (2012) Species distribution modelling tools: tools for processing data associated with species distribution modelling exercises. R Package 'SDMTools'. http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/SDMTools/SDMTools.pdf
109. Walther G-R, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A and others (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416: 389-395
110. Warner AJ, Hays GC (1994) Sampling by the continuous plankton recorder survey. Prog Oceanogr 34: 237-256
111. Wilcoxon F (1945) Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biom Bull 1:80-83
112. Woillez M, Rivoirard J, Petitgas P (2009) Notes on survey-based spatial indicators for monitoring fish populations. Aquat Living Resour 22: 155-164
113. Wood S (2006) Generalized additive models: an introduction with R. CRC Academic Press, Boca Raton, FL
114. Woodd-Walker RS, Ward P, Clarke A (2002) Large-scale patterns in diversity and community structure of surface water copepods from the Atlantic Ocean. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 236: 189-203
115. Yates CJ, McNeill A, Elith J, Midgley GF (2010) Assessing the impacts of climate change and land transformation on banksia in the south west Australian floristic region. Divers Distrib 16: 187-201
116. Yebra L, Bonnet D, Harris RP, Lindeque PK, Peijnenburg KTCA (2011) Barriers in the pelagic: population structuring of Calanus helgolandicus and C. euxinus in European waters. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 428: 135-149
117. Young BE, Franke I, Hernandez PA, Herzog SK, Paniagua L, Tovar C, Valqui T (2009) Using spatial models to predict areas of endemism and gaps in the protection of Andean slope birds. Auk 126: 554-565
118. Zuur AF, Ieno EN, Walker N (2009) Mixed effects models and extensions in ecology with R, 1st edn. Springer-Ver-lag, New York, NY