Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

Global Change Biology

Volumn 20, Issue 7, 2014, Pages 2124-2139

  Chust, Guillem ^a   Allen, J Icarus ^b   Bopp, Laurent ^c   Schrum, Corinna ^d   Holt, Jason ^e   Tsiaras, Kostas ^f   Zavatarelli, Marco ^g   Chifflet, Marina ^a   Cannaby, Heather ^e,h   Dadou, Isabelle ⁱ   Daewel, Ute ^d,j   Wakelin, Sarah L ^e   Machu, Eric ^k   Pushpadas, Dhanya ^d   Butenschon, Momme ^b   Artioli, Yuri ^b   Petihakis, George ^f   Smith, Chris ^f   Garçon, Veronique ⁱ   Goubanova, Katerina ⁱ   Le Vu, Briac ⁱ   Fach, Bettina A ^h   Salihoglu, Baris ^h   Clementi, Emanuela ^g,m   Irigoien, Xabier ^a,l   more..

^a MARINE RESEARCH DIVISION   (Spain)

^b PLYMOUTH MARINE LABORATORY   (United Kingdom)

^c LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

^d UNIVERSITY OF BERGEN   (Norway)

^e NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE   (United Kingdom)

^f INSTITUTE OF OCEANOGRAPHY   (Greece)

^g UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA   (Italy)

^h MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY   (Turkey)

ⁱ LEGOS   (France)

^j NANSEN ENVIRONMENTAL AND REMOTE SENSING CENTER   (Norway)

^k IRD Centre de Bretagne   (France)

^l KING ABDULLAH UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Saudi Arabia)

^m ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA   (Italy)

more..

Author keywords

Ecosystem model; Food web; Plankton; Primary production; Sea warming; Trophic amplification

Indexed keywords

BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTION; BIOMASS; BOTTOM-UP CONTROL; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOPHYSIOLOGY; ECOSYSTEM MODELING; FOOD WEB; GLOBAL CHANGE; PHYTOPLANKTON; PRIMARY PRODUCTION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODELING; TROPHIC STATUS; WARMING; ZOOPLANKTON;

ADRIATIC SEA; AEGEAN SEA; ARCTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTHEAST); BALTIC SEA; BARENTS SEA; BAY OF BISCAY; BENGUELA BASIN; BLACK SEA; MEDITERRANEAN SEA;

ANIMAL; BIOMASS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; FOOD CHAIN; PHYSIOLOGY; PLANKTON; SEA; TEMPERATURE; THEORETICAL MODEL;

ANIMALS; BIOMASS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; FOOD CHAIN; MODELS, THEORETICAL; OCEANS AND SEAS; PLANKTON; TEMPERATURE;

EID: 84901825305     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12562     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Årthun M, Schrum C (2010) Ocean surface heat flux variability in the Barents Sea. Journal of Marine Systems, 83, 88-98.
2. Årthun M, Ingvaldsen RB, Smedsrud LH, Schrum C (2011) Dense water formation and circulation in the Barents Sea. Deep-Sea Research Part I, 58, 801-817.
3. Årthun M, Bellerby RGJ, Omar AM, Schrum C (2012) Spatiotemporal variability of air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Barents Sea, as determined from empirical relationships and modeled hydrography. Journal of Marine Systems, 98-99, 40-50.
4. Allen JI, Aiken J, Anderson TR et al. (2010) Marine ecosystem models for earth systems applications: the MarQUEST experience. Journal of Marine Systems, 81, 19-33.
5. Aumont O, Bopp L (2006) Globalizing results from ocean in situ iron fertilization studies. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 20, GB2017.
6. Aumont O, Bopp L, Schultz M (2008) What does temporal variability in aeolian dust deposition contribute to sea-surface iron and chlorophyll distributions? Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L07607. doi: 10.1029/2007GL031131.
7. Beaugrand G, Edwards M, Brander K, Luczak C, Ibanez F (2008) Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic. Ecology Letters, 11, 1157-1168.
8. Behrenfeld MJ, O'Malley RT, Siegel DA et al. (2006) Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity. Nature, 444, 752-755.
9. Blackford JC, Allen JI, Gilbert FJ (2004) Ecosystem dynamics at six contrasting sites: a generic model study. Journal of Marine Systems, 52, 191-215.
10. Blumberg AF, Mellor GL (1987) A description of a three dimensional coastal ocean model. In: Three Dimensional Coastal Ocean Models (ed. Heaps N), pp. 1-16. A.G.U., Washington.
11. Bopp L, Monfray P, Aumont O et al. (2001) Potential impact of climate change on marine export production. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 15, 81-99.
12. Bopp L, Resplandy L, Orr JC et al. (2013) Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models. Biogeosciences, 10, 6225-6245.
13. Carr M, Kearns EJ (2003) Production regimes in four Eastern Boundary Current systems. Deep Sea Research Part II, 50, 3199-3221.
14. Chavez FP, Messié M (2009) A comparison of Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems. Progress in Oceanography, 83, 80-96.
15. Cheung WWL, Lam VWY, Sarmiento JL, Kearney K, Watson REG, Zeller D, Pauly D (2010) Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Global Change Biology, 16, 24-35.
16. Cheung WWL, Sarmiento JL, Dunne J et al. (2013) Shrinking of fishes exacerbates impacts of global ocean changes on marine ecosystems. Nature Climate Change, 3, 254-258.
17. Chust G, Borja A, Caballero A et al. (2011) Climate Change impacts on the coastal and pelagic environments in the southeastern Bay of Biscay. Climate Research, 48, 307-332.
18. Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster JM et al. (2013) Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
19. Cozzi S, Giani M (2011) River water and nutrient discharges in the northern Adriatic Sea: current importance and long term changes. Continental Shelf Research, 31, 1881-1893.
20. Cury PM, Shin Y-J, Planque B et al. (2008) Ecosystem Oceanography for global change in fisheries. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 23, 338-346.
21. Daewel U, Schrum C (2013) Simulating long-term dynamics of the coupled North and Baltic Sea ecosystem with ECOSMO II: model description and validation. Journal of Marine Systems, 119-120, 30-49.
22. Debreu L, Marchesiello P, Penven P, Cambon G (2012) Two-way nesting in split-explicit ocean models: algorithms, implementation and validation. Ocean Modelling, 49, 1-21.
23. Degobbis D, Gilmartin M (1990) Nitrogen, Phosphorus and biogenic Silicon budgets for the northern Adriatic Sea. Oceanologica Acta, 13, 31-45.
24. Dutkiewicz S, Scott JR, Follows MJ (2013) Winners and losers: ecological and biogeochemical changes in a warming ocean. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 27, 463-477.
25. Echevin V, Goubanova K, Belmadani A, Dewitte B (2012) Sensitivity of the Humboldt Current system to global warming: a downscaling experiment of the IPSL-CM4 model. Climate Dynamics, 38, 761-774.
26. Falkowski PG, Barber RT, Smetacek V (1998) Biogeochemical controls and feedbacks on ocean primary production. Science, 281, 200-206.
27. Fasham MJR, Sarmiento JL, Slater RD, Ducklow HW, Williams R (1993) Ecosystem behavior at Bermuda Station "S" and ocean weather station "India": a general circulation model and observational analysis. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 7, 379-415.
28. Follows MJ, Dutkiewicz S, Grant S, Chisholm SW (2007) Emergent biogeography of microbial communities in a model ocean. Science, 315, 1843-1846.
29. Forcada J, Trathan PN, Reid K, Murphy EJ, Croxall JP (2006) Contrasting population changes in sympatric penguin species in association with climate warming. Global Change Biology, 12, 411-423.
30. Franks PJS (2002) NPZ models of plankton dynamics: their construction, coupling to physics and application. Journal of Oceanography, 58, 379-387.
31. Good SA, Corlett GK, Remedios JJ, Noyes EJ, Lleweelyn-Jones DT (2007) The global trend in sea surface temperature from 20 years of Advanced Very High Resolution radiometer data. Journal of Climate, 20, 1255-1264.
32. Goubanova K, Echevin V, Dewitte B, Codron F, Takahashi K, Terray P, Vrac M (2011) Statistical downscaling of sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region: diagnosing the impact of climate change from the IPSL-CM4 model. Climate Dynamics, 36, 1365-1378.
33. Gutknecht E, Dadou I, Le Vu B et al. (2013a) Coupled physical/biogeochemical modeling including O2-dependent processes in the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems: application in the Benguela. Biogeosciences, 10, 3559-3591.
34. Gutknecht E, Dadou I, Marchesiello P et al. (2013b) Nitrogen transfers and sea-air N2O fluxes off Walvis bay: a 3-D model approach in the upwelling off Namibia within the oxygen minimum zone. Biogeosciences, 10, 1-19.
35. Halpern BS, Longo C, Hardy D et al. (2012) An index to assess the health and benefits of the global ocean. Nature, 488, 615-620.
36. Hansson L-A, Nicolle A, Graneli W et al. (2013) Food-chain length alters community responses to global change in aquatic systems. Nature Climate Change, 3, 228-233.
37. Henson SA, Sarmiento JL, Dunne JP et al. (2010) Is global warming already changing ocean productivity? Biogeosciences, 7, 621-640.
38. Holt JT, James ID (2001) An s-coordinate density evolving model of the North West European Continental Shelf - Part 1: model description and density structure. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 14015-14034.
39. Holt J, Wakelin S, Lowe J, Tinker J (2010) The potential impacts of climate change on the hydrography of the northwest European continental shelf. Progress in Oceanography, 86, 361-379.
40. Holt J, Butenschön M, Wakelin SL, Artioli Y, Allen JI (2012a) Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario. Biogeosciences, 9, 97-117.
41. Holt J, Hughes S, Hopkins J et al. (2012b) Multi-decadal variability and trends in the temperature of the northwest European continental shelf: a model-data synthesis. Progress in Oceanography, 106, 96-117.
42. Holt J, Schrum C, Cannaby H et al. (2014) Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems. Biogeosciences Discussion, 11, 1909-1975.
43. IPCC-AR4 (2007) Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. In: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL), pp. 1-22. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
44. Jochum M, Schneider FD, Crowe TP, Brose U, O'Gorman EJ (2012) Climate-induced changes in bottom-up and top-down processes independently alter a marine ecosystem. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 367, 2962-2970.
45. Keeling RF, Körtzinger A, Gruber N (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Annual Review of Marine Science, 2, 199-229.
46. Kirby RR, Beaugrand G (2009) Trophic amplification of climate warming. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276, 4095-4103.
47. Kirby R, Beaugrand G, Lindley J (2009) Synergistic effects of climate and fishing in a marine ecosystem. Ecosystems, 12, 548-561.
48. Lindley JA, Beaugrand G, Luczak C, Dewarumez JM, Kirby RR (2010) Warm-water decapods and the trophic amplification of climate in the North Sea. Biology Letters, 6, 773-776.
49. Ludwig W, Dumont E, Meybeck M, Heussner S (2009) River discharges of water and nutrients to the Mediterranean and Black Sea: major drivers for ecosystem changes during past and future decades? Progress in Oceanography, 80, 199-217.
50. Ludwig W, Bouwman AF, Dumont E, Lespinas F (2010) Water and nutrient fluxes from major Mediterranean and Black Sea rivers: past and future trends and their implications for the basin-scale budgets. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 24, GB0A13.
51. Madec G (2008) NEMO Reference Manual, Ocean Dynamic Component: NEMO-OPA. Note du Pole de modelisation, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Technical Report 27, ISSN No, 1288-1619.
52. MEECE report (2013). Deliverable D3.4 Synthesis report on climate simulations. Baltic Sea: http://www.meece.eu/documents/deliverables/WP3/D3%204_Part4_Baltic.pdf
53. Barents Sea: http://www.meece.eu/documents/deliverables/WP3/D3%204_Part2_Barents.pdf; Black Sea: http://www.meece.eu/documents/deliverables/WP3/D3%204_Part5_BlackSea.pdf
54. Bay of Biscay: http://www.meece.eu/documents/deliverables/WP3/D3%204_Part6_Biscay.pdf; Adriatic Sea: http://www.meece.eu/documents/deliverables/WP3/D3%204_Part7_Adriatic.pdf
55. NE Atlantic and North Sea: http://www.meece.eu/documents/deliverables/WP3/D3%204_Part3_NE%20Atlantic.pdf; North Aegean Sea: http://www.meece.eu/documents/deliverables/WP3/D3%204_Part8_Aegean.pdf
56. Benguela Upwelling: http://www.meece.eu/documents/deliverables/WP3/D3%204_Part9_Benguela.pdf (accessed 10 March 2014).
57. Mozetič P, Solidoro C, Cossarini G et al. (2009) Recent trends towards oligotrophication of the northern adriatic: evidence from chlorophyll a time series. Estuaries and Coasts, 33, 362-375.
58. Nakicenovic N, Swart R (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
59. Oguz T, Ducklow HW, Purcell JE, Malanotte-Rizzoli P (2001) Modeling the response of top-down control exerted by gelatinous carnivores on the Black Sea pelagic foodweb. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 4543-4564.
60. Pauly D, Christensen V, Dalsgaard J, Froese R, Torres F Jr (1998) Fishing down marine food webs. Science, 279, 860-863.
61. Penven P, Debreu L, Marchesiello P, McWilliams JC (2006a) Evaluation and application of the ROMS 1-way embedding procedure to the central California upwelling system. Ocean Modelling, 12, 157-187.
62. Petihakis G, Triantafyllou G, Allen JI, Hoteit I, Dounas C (2002) Modelling the spatial and temporal variability of the Cretan Sea ecosystem. Journal of Marine Systems, 36, 173-196.
63. Philippart CJM, Anadón R, Danovaro R et al. (2011) Impacts of climate change on European marine ecosystems: observations, expectations and indicators. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 400, 52-69.
64. Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Santer BD, Gleckler PJ (2009) Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 8441-8446.
65. Reid PC, Fischer AC, Lewis-Brown E et al. (2009) Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change. Adv Mar Biol, 56, 1-150.
66. Rhein M, Rintoul SR, Aoki S et al. (2013) Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
67. Richardson AJ (2008) In hot water: zooplankton and climate change. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65, 279-295.
68. Riebesell U, Schulz KG, Bellerby RGJ et al. (2007) Enhanced biological carbon consumption in a high CO2 ocean. Nature, 450, 545-548.
69. Rodgers KB, Aumont O, Menkes C, Gorgues T (2008) Decadal variations in equatorial Pacific ecosystems and ferrocline/pycnocline decoupling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22, GB2019. doi: 10.1029/2006GB002919.
70. Ruggio R, Vichi M, Paparella F, Masina S (2013) Climatic trends of the equatorial undercurrent: a backup mechanism for sustaining the equatorial Pacific production. Journal of Marine Systems, 121, 11-23.
71. Rykaczewski RR, Dunne JP (2010) Enhanced nutrient supply to the California Current Ecosystem with global warming and increased stratification in an earth system model. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L21606.
72. Schrum C (2001) Regionalization of climate change for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Climate Research, 18, 31-37.
73. Schrum C, Alekseeva I, St. John M (2006) Development of a coupled physical-biological ecosystem model ECOSMO: part I: model description and validation for the North Sea. Journal of Marine Systems, 61, 79-99.
74. Shchepetkin AF, McWilliams JC (2005) The regional ocean modeling system (ROMS): a split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model. Ocean Modeling, 9, 347-404.
75. Steinacher M, Joos F, Frölicher TL et al. (2010) Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis. Biogeosciences, 7, 979-1005.
76. Taucher J, Oschlies A (2011) Can we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming? Geophysical Research Letters, 38, 6.
77. Taylor KE (2001) Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 7183-7192.
78. Tsiaras K, Petihakis G, Kourafalou V, Triantafyllou G (2014) Impact of the river nutrient load variability on the N. Aegean ecosystem functioning over the last decades. Journal of Sea Research, 86, 97-109.
79. Vichi M, Pinardi N, Masina S (2007) A generalized model of pelagic biogeochemistry for the global ocean ecosystem. Part I: theory. Journal of Marine Systems, 64, 89-109.
80. Vichi M, Manzini E, Fogli P et al. (2011) Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario. Climate Dynamics, 37, 1929-1947.
81. Wang Y, Leung LR, McGregor JL, Lee D-K, Wang W-C, Ding Y, Kimura F (2004) Regional climate modeling: progress, challenges, and prospects. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 82, 1599-1628.