Quantifying predictive uncertainty of streamflow forecasts based on a Bayesian joint probability model

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 528, Issue , 2015, Pages 329-340

  Zhao, Tongtiegang ^a   Wang, Q J ^a   Bennett, James C ^a   Robertson, David E ^a   Shao, Quanxi ^a   Zhao, Jianshi ^b  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

^b TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Ensemble spread; Forecast uncertainty; Heteroscedasticity; Non Gaussianity; Reliability; Three Gorges Reservoir

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; INFERENCE ENGINES; MARKOV PROCESSES; METADATA; PROBABILITY; RELIABILITY; RESERVOIRS (WATER); STREAM FLOW; WATER RESOURCES;

ENSEMBLE SPREAD; FORECAST UNCERTAINTY; HETEROSCEDASTICITY; NONGAUSSIANITY; THREE GORGES RESERVOIR;

FORECASTING;

ALGORITHM; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; INFLOW; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; PREDICTION; PROBABILITY; RELIABILITY ANALYSIS; STREAMFLOW; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCE;

CHINA;

EID: 84934276014     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.043     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Alemu E.T., Palmer R.N., Polebitski A., Meaker B. Decision support system for optimizing reservoir operations using ensemble streamflow predictions. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage.-ASCE 2011, 137(1):72-82.
2. Bennett J.C., Wang Q.J., Pokhrel P., Robertson D.E. The challenge of forecasting high streamflows 1-3months in advance with lagged climate indices in southeast Australia. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2014, 14(2):219-233.
3. Bennett J.C., Robertson D.E., Shrestha D.L., Wang Q.J., Enever D., Hapuarachchi P., Tuteja N.K. A system for continuous hydrological ensemble forecasting (SCHEF) to lead times of 9days. J. Hydrol. 2014, 519:2832-2846. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.08.010.
4. Block P. Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 15(4):1355-1368.
5. Chen X., Hao Z., Devineni N., Lall U. Climate information based streamflow and rainfall forecasts for Huai River basin using hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2014, 18(4):1539-1548.
6. Cloke H.L., Pappenberger F. Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. J. Hydrol. 2009, 375(3-4):613-626.
7. Coccia G., Todini E. Recent developments in predictive uncertainty assessment based on the model conditional processor approach. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 15:3253-3274. 10.5194/hess-15-3253-2011.
8. Del Giudice D., Honti M., Scheidegger A., Albert C., Reichert P., Rieckermann J. Improving uncertainty estimation in urban hydrological modeling by statistically describing bias. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2013, 17:4209-4225. 10.5194/hess-17-4209-2013.
9. Georgakakos K.P., Graham N.E., Cheng F.Y., Spencer C., Shamir E., Georgakakos A.P., Yao H., Kistenmacher M. Value of adaptive water resources management in northern California under climatic variability and change: dynamic hydroclimatology. J. Hydrol. 2012, 412:47-65.
10. Georgakakos A.P., Yao H., Kistenmacher M., Georgakakos K.P., Graham N.E., Cheng F.Y., Spencer C., Shamir E. Value of adaptive water resources management in Northern California under climatic variability and change: reservoir management. J. Hydrol. 2012, 412:34-46.
11. Hamlet A.F., Huppert D., Lettenmaier D.P. Economic value of long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage.-ASCE 2002, 128(2):91-101.
12. Hawthorne S., Wang Q.J., Schepen A., Robertson D.E. Effective use of GCM outputs for forecasting monthly rainfalls to long lead times. Water Resour. Res. 2013, 49:5427-5436. 10.1002/wrcr.20453.
13. Hejazi M.I., Cai X.M., Yuan X., Liang X.Z., Kumar P. Incorporating reanalysis-based short-term forecasts from a regional climate model in an irrigation scheduling optimization problem. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 2014, 140(5):699-713.
14. Huber W., von Heydebreck A., Sültmann H., Poustka A., Vingron M. Variance stabilization applied to microarray data calibration and to the quantification of differential expression. J. Bioinform. 2002, 18(Suppl. 1):S96-S104. 10.1093/bioinformatics/18.suppl_1.S96.
15. Krzysztofowicz R. The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology. J. Hydrol. 2001, 249(1-4):2-9.
16. Kwon H.H., Brown C., Xu K.Q., Lall U. Seasonal and annual maximum streamflow forecasting using climate information: application to the Three Gorges Dam in the Yangtze River basin, China. Hydrol. Sci. J.-J. Sci. Hydrol. 2009, 54(3):582-595.
17. Laio F., Tamea S. Verification tools for probabilistic forecast of continuous hydrological variables. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2007, 11(4):1267-1277.
18. Li X.A., Guo S.L., Liu P., Chen G.Y. Dynamic control of flood limited water level for reservoir operation by considering inflow uncertainty. J. Hydrol. 2010, 391(1-2):126-134.
19. Li Z., Yang D.W., Hong Y., Zhang J., Qi Y.C. Characterizing spatiotemporal variations of hourly rainfall by gauge and radar in the mountainous three Gorges region. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 2014, 53(4):873-889.
20. Liu P., Li L.P., Guo S.L., Xiong L.H., Zhang W., Zhang J.W., Xu C.Y. Optimal design of seasonal flood limited water levels and its application for the Three Gorges Reservoir [J]. J. Hydrol. 2015, 527:1045-1053.
21. Liersch, S., Volk, M., 2007. Towards empirical knowledge as additional information in data-based flood forecasting techniques. In: Modsim 2007: International Congress on Modelling and Simulation: Land, Water and Environmental Management: Integrated Systems for Sustainability, pp. 1596-1602.
22. Maurer E.P., Lettenmaier D.P. Predictability of seasonal runoff in the Mississippi River basin. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 2003, 108(D16).
23. Maurer E.P., Lettenmaier D.P. Potential effects of long-lead hydrologic predictability on Missouri River main-stem reservoirs. J. Clim. 2004, 17(1):174-186.
24. Montanari A., Brath A. A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations. Water Resour. Res. 2004, 40(1).
25. Pappenberger F., Stephens E., Thielen J., Salamon P., Demeritt D., vanAndel S.J., Wetterhall F., Alfieri L. Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication. Hydrol. Process. 2013, 27(1):132-146.
26. Peng Z., Wang Q.J., Bennett J.C., Pokhrel P., Wang Z. Seasonal precipitation forecasts over China using monthly large-scale oceanic-atmospheric indices. J. Hydrol. 2014, 519:792-802. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.08.012.
27. Peng Z., Wang Q.J., Bennett J.C., Schepen A., Pappenberger F., Pokhrel P., Wang Z. Statistical calibration and bridging of ECMWF system 4 outputs for forecasting seasonal precipitation over China. J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres) 2014, 119:7116-7135. 10.1002/2013JD021162.
28. Pokhrel P., Robertson D.E., Wang Q.J. A Bayesian joint probability post-processor for reducing errors and quantifying uncertainty in monthly streamflow predictions. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2013, 17:795-804. 10.5194/hess-17-795-2013.
29. Pokhrel P., Robertson D.E., Wang Q.J. A Bayesian joint probability post-processor for reducing errors and quantifying uncertainty in monthly streamflow predictions. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2013, 17(2):795-804.
30. Robertson D.E., Wang Q.J. Seasonal forecasts of unregulated inflows into the Murray River, Australia. Water Resour. Manage 2013, 27:2747-2769. 10.1007/s11269-013-0313-4.
31. Robertson D.E., Shrestha D.L., Wang Q.J. Post-processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short-term streamflow forecasting. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2013, 17(9):3587-3603.
32. Robertson D.E., Shrestha D.L., Wang Q.J. Post-processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short-term streamflow forecasting. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2013, 17:3587-3603. 10.5194/hess-17-3587-2013.
33. Robertson D.E., Pokhrel P., Wang Q.J. Improving statistical forecasts of seasonal streamflows using hydrological model output. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2013, 17:579-593. 10.5194/hess-17-579-2013.
34. Sankarasubramanian A., Lall U., Devineni N., Espinueva S. The role of monthly updated climate forecasts in improving intraseasonal water allocation. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 2009, 48(7):1464-1482.
35. Schepen A., Wang Q.J. Ensemble forecasts of monthly catchment rainfall out to long lead times by post-processing coupled general circulation model output. J. Hydrol. 2014, 519:2920-2931. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.03.017.
36. Schepen A., Wang Q.J., Robertson D. Evidence for using lagged climate indices to forecast Australian seasonal rainfall. J. Clim. 2012, 25(4):1230-1246.
37. Shrestha, D.L., Robertson, D.E., Bennett, J.C., Wang, Q.J., 2015. Improving precipitation forecasts by generating ensembles through post-processing, Monthly Weather Review (in press).
38. Vicuna S., Dracup J.A., Lund J.R., Dale L.L., Maurer E.P. Basin-scale water system operations with uncertain future climate conditions: methodology and case studies. Water Resour. Res. 2010, 46:W04505. 10.1029/2009WR007838.
39. Wang Q.J., Robertson D.E. Multisite probabilistic forecasting of seasonal flows for streams with zero value occurrences. Water Resour. Res. 2011, 47:W02546. 10.1029/2010WR009333.
40. Wang Q.J., Robertson D.E., Chiew F.H.S. A Bayesian joint probability modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites. Water Resour. Res. 2009, 45:W05407. 10.1029/2008WR007355.
41. Wang Q.J., Shrestha D.L., Robertson D.E., Pokhrel P. A log-sinh transformation for data normalization and variance stabilization. Water Resour. Res. 2012, 48:W05514. 10.1029/2011WR010973.
42. Wang L., Koike T., Ikeda M., Tinh D.N., Nyunt C.T., Saavedra O., Nguyen L.C., Sap T.V., Tamagawa K., Ohta T. Optimizing multidam releases in large river basins by combining distributed hydrological inflow predictions with rolling-horizon decision making. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 2014, 140(10).
43. Weerts A.H., Winsemius H.C., Verkade J.S. Estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty using quantile regression: examples from the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 15(1):255-265.
44. Wood A.W., Schaake J.C. Correcting errors in streamflow forecast ensemble mean and spread. J. Hydrometeorol. 2008, 9(1):132-148.
45. Wood E.F., Roundy J.K., Troy T.J., van Beek L.P.H., Bierkens M.F.P., Blyth E., de Roo A., Doll P., Ek M., Famiglietti J., Gochis D., van de Giesen N., Houser P., Jaffe P.R., Kollet S., Lehner B., Lettenmaier D.P., Peters-Lidard C., Sivapalan M., Sheffield J., Wade A., Whitehead P. Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water. Water Resour. Res. 2011, 47:W05301. 10.1029/2010WR010090.
46. Xu W., Zhang C., Peng Y., Fu G., Zhou H. A two stage Bayesian stochastic optimization model for cascaded hydropower systems considering varying uncertainty of flow forecasts. Water Resour. Res. 2014, 50(12):9267-9286. 10.1002/2013wr015181.
47. You J.Y., Cai X.M. Hedging rule for reservoir operations: 1. A theoretical analysis. Water Resour. Res. 2008, 44(1):W01415. 10.1029/2006WR005481.
48. Zhao T.T.G., Zhao J.S. Joint and respective effects of long- and short-term forecast uncertainties on reservoir operations. J. Hydrol. 2014, 517:83-94.
49. Zhao T.T.G., Cai X.M., Yang D.W. Effect of streamflow forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Adv. Water Resour. 2011, 34(4):495-504.
50. Zhao T.T.G., Yang D.W., Cai X.M., Zhao J.S., Wang H. Identifying effective forecast horizon for real-time reservoir operation under a limited inflow forecast. Water Resour. Res. 2012, 48:W01540. 10.1029/2011WR010623.
51. Zhao T.T.G., Zhao J.S., Yang D.W., Wang H. Generalized martingale model of the uncertainty evolution of streamflow forecasts. Adv. Water Resour. 2013, 57:41-51.
52. Zhao T.T.G., Zhao J.S., Lund J.R., Yang D.W. Optimal hedging rules for reservoir flood operation from forecast uncertainties. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 2014, 140(12).